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Nissan-Honda merger talks fail: A look at what went wrong

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Late last year, Nissan offered embattled rival Honda a lifeline: a $60 billion tie-up that would have helped both Japanese carmakers compete against Chinese brands disrupting the auto industry.

Years of sales declines and management turmoil had left Nissan a weakened force, especially after it underestimated demand for hybrid vehicles in the US, its biggest market.

But merger talks broke down in little more than a month because of Nissan’s pride and lack of concern about its situation, as well as Honda’s sudden decision to revise the terms and propose that Nissan become a subsidiary, six people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Nissan, Japan’s second-largest carmaker after Toyota until 2020, insisted on being treated almost as an equal in the talks despite its weak position, three of these people said.

Honda has pressed Nissan to make deeper cuts to its workforce and factory capacity, but Nissan is unwilling to consider politically sensitive factory closures, the three sources said. They said they were under the impression that Nissan thought it could recover on its own despite its mounting difficulties.

This intransigence, coupled with Honda management’s perception that Nissan was slow to make decisions, led to the undermining of a deal that would have created one of the world’s largest carmakers, the three people said.

Famed carmaker Nissan is now also facing the threat of US tariffs on vehicles made in Mexico, which accounts for more than a quarter of US sales. Both Nissan and Honda will announce their earnings on Thursday.

‘I think it’s a management problem,’ Julie Boote, an analyst at research firm Pelham Smithers Associates, said of the turmoil at Nissan. ‘They are completely overestimating their position, their brand value and their ability to turn the business around.’

Nissan and Honda declined to comment on specific aspects of the talks described by Reuters sources.

Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida visited his counterpart Toshihiro Mibe last week, saying he wanted to end talks after Honda made its subsidiary offer.

Both carmakers said they would provide an update this month.

Merger talks process

Nissan stunned investors in November by slashing its profit forecast by 70 percent due to deteriorating sales in China and the US. The company announced a turnaround plan that included cutting 9,000 jobs and reducing global capacity by a fifth, but some analysts called it ‘too little, too late’.

In December, Nissan and Honda announced plans to merge as a result of talks they have been in since March 2024, when they said they wanted to collaborate on technology.

But the merger talks quickly hit a wall over the calculation of the shareholding ratio for the combined company, two people said.

One of these people said Nissan CEO Uchida privately expressed scepticism about the future of the deal. Honda executives complained that Nissan’s decision-making process was too slow, four people said. A public update on the talks was originally set for the end of January, but was postponed until mid-February.

Honda executives thought Nissan’s turnaround strategy lacked detail and were disappointed to see a meagre reduction in factory capacity, the two sources said.

Reuters was unable to ascertain whether Honda had requested a specific number of layoffs or identified specific factories for capacity reduction.

One person said Nissan did not want to close factories because it would cause their value on paper to fall and hurt earnings.

The layoffs promised as part of Nissan’s turnaround plan amount to 7% of its global workforce. Honda has laid off more people in China in the past two years, one person said.

A person familiar with Nissan’s thinking said Honda seemed unwilling to compromise on its plans, implying that it did not see Nissan as an equal.

New partners

It is unclear what could bring the carmakers back to the table. They are likely to return to their initial agreement to work together on technology, the three people said.

If both companies agree to end talks, neither would be liable for the 100 billion yen ($650 million) break-up fee under the December memorandum of understanding.

Nissan is open to working with new partners, including Foxconn, the Taiwanese contract manufacturer that makes Apple’s iPhones, Reuters reported. Foxconn did not respond to a request for comment.

Foxconn Chairman Young Liu said on Wednesday that their aim was to co-operate with Nissan, not buy it.

The Taiwanese company’s electric vehicle business is led by former Nissan executive Jun Seki, who at one point was seen by an insider as a candidate to become the carmaker’s CEO.

Foxconn would be a more generous suitor than Honda because it needs a brand name in the auto industry and Nissan could be attractive, said Amir Anvarzadeh, strategist at Japanese equity advisory firm Asymmetric Advisors.

‘Whatever you think of their cars and balance sheet, at least the brand is still quite recognisable,’ Anvarzadeh said of Nissan.

The Japanese government has so far given little indication of how it views the breakdown of talks between Honda and Nissan or whether it would favour a Nissan acquisition by Foxconn, which is also the largest shareholder in consumer electronics company Sharp Corp.

Boote said the real question for Nissan now is what management will do.

‘They don’t have a realistic view of what’s going on in the auto industry and what really needs to happen at Nissan,’ he said.

Asia

ASEAN and China deepen ties amid threat of new US tariffs

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On Thursday, ASEAN foreign ministers emphasized the strength of the bloc’s relationship with China as they sought to deepen ties with Beijing in the face of new “reciprocal” punitive tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump. Experts believe Trump’s aggressive tariff policy is bringing ASEAN and China even closer.

In his opening speech at a meeting in Kuala Lumpur with ASEAN foreign ministers and their Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said that China is “one of ASEAN’s most important and dynamic partners.”

“This relationship is built on mutual trust, common interests, and growing economic interdependence,” he said.

Wang echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the countries’ shared Asian identity and goals. “China has always seen ASEAN as a priority in its neighborhood diplomacy and sees the region as a pioneer in building a global community with a shared future for humanity,” he said.

The meeting was part of the annual Ministerial Conference of ASEAN foreign ministers. Following the meeting, there will be meetings with Japan, China, and South Korea, as well as with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other dialogue partners.

Addressing the ongoing geopolitical shifts, Wang noted that the current global turmoil and transformation raise questions of unity or division, peace or conflict, and cooperation or confrontation.

“We must learn from history, actively promote an equal and structured world order, and push the international system toward greater justice and equality by supporting inclusive and shared economic globalization,” he said.

Trade relations

Since 2020, ASEAN and China have remained each other’s largest trading partners, with total trade volume reaching $770.9 billion in 2024, a 10.6% increase from the previous year.

In May, the two sides announced the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0 agreement after nine rounds of negotiations spanning two and a half years.

The upgraded agreement includes nine new chapters covering the digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity. China’s Ministry of Commerce described this framework as a gateway to building the China-ASEAN mega-market.

Meanwhile, ASEAN members are preparing for new US tariffs set to take effect on August 1. The tariffs are set at 40% for Myanmar and Laos, 36% for Cambodia and Thailand, 32% for Indonesia, 25% for Malaysia and Brunei, and 20% for Vietnam and the Philippines. Washington has not yet announced an updated rate for Singapore, which was taxed at a 10% rate when the tariffs were announced in April.

Response to tariffs

On Wednesday, at the start of the ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated that trade is being used as a tool for “pressure, isolation, and control,” adding that “tariffs, export restrictions, and investment barriers have now become sharp instruments of geopolitical competition.”

In a speech to parliament on Wednesday, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani called for multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the UN, and the World Bank to play a more significant role in the trade war. “The role of these multilateral institutions has been greatly weakened and is not even respected,” she said.

Thailand announced $1.22 billion in mitigation measures. According to Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul, Thailand’s central bank is also expected to further loosen its monetary policy to reduce tariffs.

A draft of the joint communique from the foreign ministers’ meeting, seen by Nikkei Asia, describes unilateral tariffs as “counterproductive” and warns that they “risk exacerbating global economic fragmentation and posing complex challenges to ASEAN’s economic stability and growth.” The draft, expected to be released on Friday, affirms that ASEAN is “committed to working constructively with all partners to this end.”

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Chinese navy chief and top nuclear scientist expelled from legislature

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The chief of staff for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, Vice Admiral Li Hanjun, and Liu Shipeng, the deputy chief engineer of the state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation, were removed from their positions in the country’s legislative body.

Li is the latest in a series of PLA generals and a handful of defense industry executives implicated in a widespread investigation within the military.

In a statement on Friday, the NPC Standing Committee announced, “The Navy Soldiers’ Congress has decided to remove Li Hanjun from his post as a representative to the 14th National People’s Congress.”

The Gansu People’s Congress also dismissed Liu Shipeng from his role as an NPC deputy.

Additionally, the Standing Committee revealed it had voted to remove Miao Hua, a former top general who previously oversaw the PLA’s ideological work, from the Central Military Commission (CMC), China’s highest military command body led by President Xi Jinping.

The removal of Li and Liu from their NPC memberships suggests they are facing serious disciplinary action.

China typically remains silent about purges within the military, and announcements from the NPC are one of the few indicators of such campaigns.

There is little public information available about Li and Liu, as both have worked in sensitive positions.

Before becoming the navy’s chief of staff, Li, 60, was the deputy director of the CMC’s Training and Administration Department. He was appointed to this role after serving for a year in the CMC’s Office for Reform and Organisational Structure.

In 2014, he was promoted to vice admiral upon his appointment as commander of the naval base in Fujian province, where Miao also spent a significant part of his career. At that time, he was the director of training at the China Naval Command College and was soon promoted to president of the school.

According to official media reports, nuclear scientist Liu was born into a family that “served China’s nuclear dream for three generations.”

As the deputy chief engineer at CNNC, which oversees all aspects of China’s civil and military nuclear programs, Liu also served as the Communist Party secretary and president of CNNC’s “404 base” in Gansu.

Covering an area of over 1,000 square kilometers, the base was established in 1958 and is the country’s first and largest nuclear research center. It played a crucial role in the development of China’s first atomic bomb in 1964 and its first hydrogen bomb three years later.

This secretive base is still considered a key hub for China’s nuclear deterrence and nuclear industry.

According to statements from provincial authorities, Liu was named “Gansu’s outstanding entrepreneur” in 2023.

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China, US reach agreement on export controls

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The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday afternoon that Beijing and Washington have remained in close contact since the two-day trade talks in London earlier this month, confirming the details of a framework agreement.

“China will review and approve export applications for controlled items in accordance with its laws and regulations, and the US side will, in turn, lift a series of restrictive measures against China,” the ministry stated.

“We hope the US side will cooperate with China in line with the important consensus and conditions established during the conversation between the two presidents on June 5,” the statement continued.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said the US had “signed” a trade deal with China the previous day, without providing details.

“We signed the deal with China yesterday, right? We signed the deal with China,” Trump said at a White House event introducing a budget law. “With the China deal, we are starting to open up China,” he added.

He also mentioned that a “very big” deal, likely with India, would be signed soon.

Rare earth elements

Following the event, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters that the US and China had signed an agreement codifying the terms decided upon in previous trade negotiations.

“They will deliver rare earth elements to us,” Lutnick said in a televised interview with Bloomberg, adding that if this commitment is fulfilled, Washington will lift its “countermeasures.”

Rare earth elements, essential for producing high-tech products, including those for the defense industry, were a major point of contention in the trade talks. China holds a near-monopoly on the supply of these minerals due to its massive share of global refining capacity.

Responding to a question on Thursday about rare earth exports, ministry spokesman He Yadong said China had approved a “certain number” of applications and would “continue to strengthen” the review and approval process for eligible applications.

He added that Beijing is willing to “strengthen communication and dialogue” with other countries on export controls and actively promote appropriate trade.

Lutnick also stated that the US plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners in the coming weeks. The deadline for countries to negotiate trade terms before higher tariffs are reinstated was July 9, following a 90-day suspension of import tariff hikes announced on April 2.

The two negotiating teams concluded the London talks by announcing they had agreed “in principle” on a “framework” that both sides would take home for their respective leaders to review, as they sought to get their uneasy truce, signed last month in Geneva, back on track.

The negotiations began after a highly anticipated phone call between Xi Jinping and Trump, which seemingly ended an intractable stalemate.

In the weeks following the initial agreement in Switzerland, Washington claimed China was restricting exports of critical minerals, while Beijing reacted to US restrictions on semiconductors and threats to impose visa barriers on Chinese students.

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