Connect with us

EUROPE

Political scientist Ulrike Guérot: We need to think about a Europe beyond the EU

Published

on

As the European Parliament (EP) elections on 6-9 June approach, the debate on the political destiny of the continent is intensifying. The future of the EU is becoming uncertain, especially in light of the migration crisis, the war in Ukraine and the energy shock.

Prof. Dr. Ulrike Guérot, one of Germany’s leading experts on Europe and a political scientist who was forced to resign from her position at the University of Bonn because of her stance against the war in Ukraine, spoke at the roundtable entitled “Future Scenarios for Europe”, hosted by Harici and moderated by Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal.

Beginning her speech with anecdotes about the EU and Turkey’s EU membership process, Guérot compared 20 years ago with today and asked what went wrong with the EU project.

Describing the excitement that the project that culminated in the Maastricht Treaty in the early 1990s generated both in himself and in Europe at the time, the political scientist argued that there was political energy and political conviction at the time, as well as a projection of Europe’s future ‘soft power’.

Guérot recalled that the security architecture for peace with Russia worked in the 1990s, that in the early 2000s German public sympathy for Russia approached that of the United States, and that Vladimir Putin even made a speech in the German Bundestag.

However, according to Guérot, concepts such as soft power and global governance began to lose their meaning with the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Referring to the ‘no’ vote in the 2005 French referendum on the EU Constitution, the political scientist said that the moment of ‘enlargement’ was missed with the process with Turkey, the EU became ‘neo-liberalised’, much less social, the ‘anti-Russian’ memories of the Eastern European countries that had recently joined the EU resurfaced, and finally the crisis of 2008 came.

Noting that the EU has lost its political will with this crisis and that the idea of a ‘social Europe’ has begun to die, Guérot said that the mainstream has turned to ‘austerity’ instead of increasing social spending in response to the crisis.

Pointing out that the crisis and the austerity response to the crisis are the main reasons for the rise of populism and the right in Europe, Guérot recalled Walter Benjamin’s words: “Behind every rising fascism there is a failed social revolution”.

The German political scientist pointed out that Europe ‘lacked the capacity for discourse’ in the aftermath of the crisis, and that the refugee crisis, on top of the refugee crisis, led to the rise of a new wave of populism, giving rise to parties such as the AfD in Germany and the FPÖ in Austria.

Guérot argued that young Europeans have no idea what Europe is about and that there is no longer a political-democratic project.

Guérot believes that the EP elections will not be enough to get out of the crisis and that the militarisation of the EU will continue, not only militarily but also in the form of the suppression of dissenting voices, for example through legislation such as the Digital Services Act.

The German political scientist stressed that the war in Ukraine is completely harmful and suicidal for Germany and the other European countries, and that Brussels is being hypocritical about Kiev’s accession to the EU and that the country cannot be admitted to the EU at the snap of a finger.

Guérot believes that there is no winner in Ukraine and that the West is selling illusions, that everyone knows this, but that the West is still being told that it cannot back down.

We need to think about Europe beyond the EU,” Guérot said, adding that questions such as “can the EU still be reformed? Or can it not?”, she said.

The political scientist, who advocates the ‘liberation’ of Europe, especially from its own institutions, said that she was not talking about an anti-American Europe, but a ‘post-Atlantic’ Europe, and that his solution was a ‘European republic’ in which borders would become irrelevant.

Arguing that peace and a federal structure were the only way for Europe not to ‘explode’, Guérot suggested that peace should be established regardless of national borders, that a European citizenship should be built beyond nationalities, and that a sovereignty of ‘citizenship’ should be established outside the EU institutions and nation states.

According to Guérot, Europe has three historical characteristics. 1) The history of Europe has always been a balance of power. I think a multipolar world would be very useful. 2) The republic has a special meaning for Europe. European history is linked to the theoretical and intellectual traditions of other empires, i.e. interconnectedness. The idea of society and republic is not compatible with the US or neo-liberalism, and 3) Europe is self-existent in a non-religious but transcendent way,’ she said.

EUROPE

EU demands HTS to expel Russian and Iranian influence

Published

on

The European Union (EU) has called on Syria’s interim leadership, headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to ensure the country’s future is inclusive, free of extremism, and independent of Russian and Iranian interference, according to senior European diplomats on Monday.

The Associated Press (AP) reported that following the fall of Damascus on 8 December, incidents of reprisals, revenge killings, or sectarian violence have been minimal. Looting and destruction were largely brought under control shortly thereafter.

The interim government, formed by opposition forces led by HTS, is deemed a terrorist organization by both the EU and the United States. Critics note that the new leadership has yet to articulate a comprehensive vision for governing Syria.

The EU plans to dispatch an envoy to Damascus for discussions with the new authorities, aiming to assess the direction of Syria’s political transition. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas emphasized the bloc’s demand for a stable, peaceful, and inclusive government, acknowledging that clarity on Syria’s new trajectory could take weeks or months.

“Syria is facing an optimistic yet uncertain future. We need assurances that progress is moving in the right direction. This is not just about words—we need tangible actions,” Kallas stated during an EU foreign ministers’ meeting.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot outlined specific conditions for lifting sanctions or providing EU development aid. These include that a political transition ensuring representation for all Syrian minority groups, adherence to human rights and women’s rights, and a firm rejection of terrorism and extremism.

Similarly, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares underscored the importance of respecting EU “red lines.” These include safeguarding Syria’s territorial integrity and eliminating foreign interference.

“If these issues are adequately addressed, we can open discussions about lifting sanctions,” Albares said.

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp reinforced the EU’s demand for the removal of Russian military bases from Syria. “We want the Russians out,” he declared.

In a pointed statement, Kallas warned Syria’s new leaders against relying on Russia and Iran. “Russia and Iran are not your friends. They abandoned the Assad regime and are now weakened, preoccupied with their own challenges,” she asserted.

The EU remains cautious but hopeful as it navigates relations with Syria’s interim government, advocating for a peaceful political future rooted in democracy, human rights, and freedom from external manipulation.

Continue Reading

EUROPE

Germany’s new strategy: ‘Restructuring the country with a focus on defense’

Published

on

In parallel with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s call for NATO countries in Europe to develop a ‘war mentality’, the German government has drawn up a comprehensive plan for ‘defense cooperation’.

At an event last week organized by NATO’s public relations department, which aims to use intermediaries, including journalists, to spread the military alliance’s ‘message’, Rutte declared that even today we are no longer ‘living in peace’.

Claiming that the European defense industry had been ‘gutted’ by ‘decades of underinvestment’ and petty national interests, Rutte called for a ‘transition to a war mentality’.

‘National Security and Defence Industry Strategy’ in Berlin

The German government has long pursued the large-scale arms build-up called for by Rutte, and earlier this month adopted a National Security and Defence Industry Strategy document to underpin it.

The document states that Germany must ‘become defense-oriented as quickly as possible’. To this end, the ‘rapidly growing demand for military goods, services and innovations’ must be met as quickly as possible.

To this end, the German government has presented a new strategy drawn up in cooperation with the German defense industry, and Berlin is relying on close defense industry cooperation in Europe. In this context, it is stated that ‘only in cooperation with our European partners’ can the desired capacities be built.

‘National defence interests’ as a condition for German-European cooperation

It is emphasized, however, that this cooperation can only take place ‘in appropriate cases’ and with ‘equal participation’ of German companies.

This is because ‘in order to maintain and strengthen the strategic sovereignty and mobility of the Federal Republic of Germany’, ‘certain core capabilities and capacities of the security and defense industry … must be maintained at national level’.

It also aims to secure Germany’s leading position in the EU defense industry.

Farewell to civil R&D

In concrete terms, the German government proposes a number of measures.

For example, a “closer […] dovetailing of civilian and security- and defense-related research and development” is to be examined”.

This will also require an ‘open discussion on civil regulations’, which has been taking place at some universities for some time.

In addition, the current requirements for the construction and operation of arsenals are to be reduced, while the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) and the European Investment Bank are to be used more for arms financing.

Berlin is also seeking measures to ‘diversify and make more flexible supply chains’ in order to become virtually independent of ‘hostile states’, especially China.

This is likely to further increase the price of defense products. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently reported that efforts by some new entrants in the U.S. defense industry to eliminate Chinese raw materials and components have shown that it is possible, but expensive: Expenditures were said to have increased ‘in some cases by six to 10 times’.

A global role for the Bundeswehr

The fact that the National Security and Defence Industrial Strategy explicitly states that ‘military capabilities, equipment and hardware’ for the Bundeswehr must be ‘deployable and operational in all situations, sizes, geo-strategic areas and climatic conditions’ refutes the claim that rearmament is only about national defense.

The document also confirms the German government’s intention to consolidate an increasing number of Bundeswehr operations in the Asia-Pacific region.

In fact, German troops are deployed in a wide range of ‘climatic conditions’ and ‘geo-strategic areas’ in the Asia-Pacific region and in the territorial waters and land masses leading to it.

The fact that the Bundeswehr is also ‘deployable’ everywhere shows that Berlin is clearly keeping the door open for German participation in wars anywhere in the world, including the Asia-Pacific region.

Continue Reading

EUROPE

Macron appoints François Bayrou as France’s new PM

Published

on

A week after the fall of the French government, President Emmanuel Macron has appointed François Bayrou as the country’s new prime minister. This appointment comes at a critical juncture as France faces political instability and mounting economic challenges.

Bayrou, 73, is the leader of the Mouvement Démocrate (Democratic Movement – MoDem) party, a centrist political group allied with Macron’s camp. He is also the mayor of Pau, a city in southern France, and is highly regarded by conservative factions. Known for his close ties with Macron, Bayrou is considered a trusted confidant of the president.

The announcement of Bayrou’s appointment followed a brief meeting with Macron at the Élysée Palace, which lasted less than two hours. The day before, the two had discussed the political situation over the phone. Macron’s entourage had earlier hinted that the new prime minister would be named on Friday morning.

Bayrou takes office amidst sharp political divisions in the National Assembly, where no party holds a majority. The assembly is currently split into three opposing blocs: The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), Macron’s Centrist Coalition, and the right-wing National Rally (RN) and its allies.

The previous prime minister, Michel Barnier, was dismissed after failing to secure a quorum for the 2025 budget. Barnier’s tenure lasted only three months, highlighting the fragility of Macron’s government. The new head of government must now form an administration that can withstand potential votes of no confidence.

Bayrou’s appointment was met with mixed reactions. Conservatives expressed respect for Bayrou’s leadership and a willingness to cooperate. The Greens and Socialists criticized the decision, arguing that it signaled a continuation of existing policies rather than a fresh start.

Reports suggest that some conservatives and sections of the left have promised to tolerate the new government. However, if a broad coalition is not formed, a minority government would remain vulnerable to collapse.

Macron’s quick decision to appoint Bayrou is seen as a calculated risk. The president aims to stabilize the government and avert further political turmoil. Yet, opposition parties have escalated their criticism, with some even calling for Macron’s resignation.

France also faces mounting economic pressures, driven by excessive national debt. Observers suggest that fiscal discipline and strategic policymaking will be critical in navigating the ongoing challenges.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey