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Reduction in Afghanistan-Pakistan trade, what could be the reason?

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Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI) has expressed concern over drastic reduction in trade between the two neighboring countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Senior Vice President of (PAJCCI), Zia-ul-Haq Sarhadi has expressed his deep concern over significant reduction in bilateral trade with Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics (CARs).

Zia-ul-Haq, who is also Executive Member Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI), had blamed enforcement of two percent Infrastructure Development Cess (IDS) by the Khyber Government on export cargo as the reason for recent dip in trade between Pakistan, Afghanistan and CARs.

Zia-ul-Haq said that in the recent past the volume of bilateral trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan was around 2.5 billion dollars which has shrunk to mere 700 million dollars.

Citing other reasons behind this plunge in trade volume, Zia-ul-Haq said it includes frequent closure of Pak-Afghan border at Torkham border, Temporary Admission Document (TAD), implementation of ban on Pak-Afghan trade including 100 percent bank guarantee, inclusion of 14 items into negative list, enforcement of 10 percent processing fees, restrictions at Karachi port causing holding of more than 300 containers of transit trade.

In a surprising twist, Afghanistan-Pakistan relations have deteriorated in all areas in past three years

Zia-ul-Haq said due to stopping of these more than 300 containers at Karachi port, huge financial penalties under the head of demurrage and detention charges were imposed and a large portion of Pak-Afghan trade was diverted to Bandar Abbas and Chabahar ports in Iran, rendering thousands of custom clearing agents, border agents, shipping agents, transporters, labourers and other associated persons as jobless.

In a surprising twist, Afghanistan-Pakistan relations have deteriorated in all areas in the past three years after a lot of optimistic chatter and exception regarding the visible signs of improvement after the Taliban return to power. In politics, and security it was clear that there are several terrorist groups operating in bordering areas that have caused trust-issues between Kabul and Islamabad. Both sides blamed each other any time when there were bomb blasts, or direct attacks on security posts, or on the army or a direct border clash. Our point of discussion is totally different from those incidents as it raises eye-brows that what could have caused both sides to not see deterioration in economic areas.

One could be the reason that due to fencing on the bordering areas which has cut off trade and disrupted families on both sides of the line. The area has been restricted on the movement of people requiring visas for entering or leaving. This could also be one of the reasons that have gravely impacted the volume of bilateral trade between the neighboring countries.

Bilateral trade between Kabul and Islamabad dropped significantly in the past recent years.

It has been reported that bilateral trade has dropped to less than a billion US dollars in the past three years. This could have damaging implications for traders and transporters in both countries, and this has also resulted into the hardship of millions of customers in both sides of the countries.

Mr. Zia-ul-Haq has furthered went on saying that due to enforcement of 2 percent IDS on export goods in KP, most of the export consignments that were transported to Afghanistan from Torkham border have been shifted to Chaman border in Balochistan, depriving KP of substantial revenue.

He demanded the KP government to review its decision regarding imposition of two percent IDS on export because the decision has rendered thousands of people associated with Pak-Afghan trade as jobless.

He said on the one hand federal government is announcing numerous incentives for promotion of trade in the country, while on the other hand KP government has imposed two percent cess on export as a result of which commercial activities at Bacha Khan airport in Peshawar, Azhakhel dry port, Kha Lachi border post have come to a standstill.

Zia also urged the KP government to forthwith chalk out a comprehensive Action Plan for promotion of regional trade and for removal of hindrances in economic activities causing reduction in trade with Afghanistan and CARs.

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Apple plans to move US iPhone assembly to India

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According to people familiar with the matter, Apple plans to shift the assembly of all iPhones sold in the US to India starting next year, as President Donald Trump’s trade war forces the tech giant away from China.

This move, based on Apple’s strategy to diversify its supply chain, is progressing further and faster than investors appreciate, according to the Financial Times. The goal is for all more than 60 million iPhones sold annually in the US to be sourced from India by the end of 2026.

This target means doubling iPhone production in India, following nearly two decades where Apple spent heavily in China to build a worldwide production line that enabled it to become a $3 trillion tech giant.

China, where Apple produces most of its iPhones through third parties like Foxconn, has been subject to the US president’s most aggressive tariffs, although Washington has since signaled its willingness to negotiate with Beijing.

Following Trump’s tariff announcements that wiped $700 billion off Apple’s market value, the company rushed to export existing iPhones produced in India to the US to avoid higher tariffs imposed on China.

Apple has been steadily developing capacity in India with contract manufacturers Tata Electronics and Foxconn in recent years, but still assembles most of its smartphones in China.

iPhone assembly, the final step in the production process, brings together hundreds of components that Apple still largely relies on Chinese suppliers for.

Trump initially announced that reciprocal tariffs of over 100% would be applied to imports from China, but later proposed a temporary reprieve for smartphones. These devices are still subject to a separate rate of 20% applicable to all imports from China.

A so-called reciprocal tariff of 26% was applied to India, but this application was paused as New Delhi pushed for a bilateral trade agreement with the US. Visiting India this week, US Vice President JD Vance said the two countries were making “very good progress”.

According to International Data Corporation, the US accounts for approximately 28% of Apple’s 232.1 million global iPhone shipments in 2024.

Apple will need to further increase its capacity in India to meet all orders from the US.

Last year, as the iPhone maker sought to increase its production in India, Foxconn and Tata began importing pre-assembled component kits from China.

“We believe this will be a significant move for Apple to continue its growth and momentum,” said Daniel Newman, CEO of research firm Futurum Group. He added, “We are seeing in real time how a company with these resources moves at relatively light speed to address tariff risk.”

Apple is set to announce its quarterly earnings next week as investors try to understand the impact of Trump’s tariff plans. The company does not provide specific guidance on earnings and avoids discussing tariffs.

Chief Executive Tim Cook has been in regular contact with Trump and his administration since attending the president’s inauguration in January.

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Afghanistan’s trade route with India via Pakistan closed following tensions in Kashmir

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Afghanistan’s trade with India through Pakistan has been halted due to closure of the Attari-Wagah border. The Hindustan Times reported that the border, which is the only land route allowed for trade, is now closed and the local economy will be affected.

According to the report, this route is vital for importing goods from Afghanistan to India, and if it is stopped, trade with Afghanistan will also be severely affected.

The closure came after terrorist attacks and political developments in Kashmir.

Some merchants have announced that they will seek alternative routes for importing goods, but the economic impacts of this decision will remain serious, especially for small merchants and industries.

The decision came after gunmen shot and killed at least 26 tourists on Tuesday at a resort in Indian-controlled Kashmir.

Police blamed militants fighting against Indian rule for the attack in Baisaran meadown. The attack took place 5 kilometers away from the disputed region’s resort town of Paghalgam.

Pakistan alarmed the world of a possible war between India and Pakistan

Meanwhile, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif warned that the world should be concerned about the possibility of war between the two nuclear-armed countries, Pakistan and India.

In an interview with Sky News, Asif on Friday said that the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan could escalate into a full-scale war.

Asif added that Pakistan would respond appropriately in case of any full-scale attack by India. He expressed hope that despite the escalation of tensions, the issue could be resolved through talks.

Asif statement’s interview came when India accused Pakistan of involvement in the attack, but Islamabad has denied the allegations, calling it a “false flag” operation.

India, in immediate action, decided to suspend the Indus Water Treaty and made further threats against Pakistan following the attack. These actions by India have raised further concerns about increasing tensions in the region.

Pakistan, in response to India’s actions, has also warned that any attempt to change the flow of shared waters under the Indus Water Treaty will be considered an “act of war.”

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Kashmir attack escalates India-Pakistan tensions

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday reacted strongly after police identified two attackers behind a deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir as Pakistani nationals, vowing to track, trace, and punish the terrorists and their supporters.

Speaking in the eastern Indian state of Bihar, Modi paid tribute to the 26 people shot dead in a meadow in the Pahalgam area of Indian Kashmir.

“We will pursue them to the ends of the earth,” Modi said, without naming the attackers’ nationality or Pakistan.

But tensions between the nuclear-armed rivals appeared set to escalate after India late on Wednesday ruptured ties with Pakistan, suspending a sixteen-year-old water treaty and closing the only land border crossing between the neighbors.

Pakistan’s Energy Minister Awais Lekhari called the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty “an act of water war; a cowardly, illegal move.”

Pakistan also closed its airspace to Indian airlines and warned against violation of the water treaty.

Indian Kashmir police on Thursday issued posters naming three militants suspected of “involvement” in the attack and announcing rewards for information leading to their capture.

The posters stated that two of the three suspected militants were Pakistani nationals.

India and Pakistan control separate parts of Kashmir and both claim the territory in full.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said on Wednesday that a cabinet committee on security had been briefed on the cross-border links of the attack, the worst against civilians in the country in nearly two decades.

Misri, the top diplomat in India’s foreign ministry, did not offer any evidence of the links or provide further details.

Misri said New Delhi would withdraw its defense advisers in Pakistan and reduce the number of personnel at its mission in Islamabad from 55 to 30.

Local media reports said India summoned Pakistan’s top diplomat in New Delhi to inform him that all defense advisers at the Pakistani mission had been declared persona non grata and given a week to leave.

Modi also called an all-party meeting to brief them on the government’s response to the attack.

Dozens of protesters gathered outside the Pakistani Embassy in New Delhi’s diplomatic enclave on Thursday, chanting slogans and pushing against police barricades.

Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said in Islamabad that Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif would hold a National Security Committee meeting to discuss Pakistan’s response.

The Indus Treaty, brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, regulated the sharing of waters from the Indus River and its tributaries between India and Pakistan. The treaty has since survived two wars between the neighbors and serious tensions in relations at other times.

Diplomatic relations between the two countries were weak even before the latest measures were announced, after Pakistan expelled India’s envoy and India did not send its high commissioner to New Delhi after it revoked Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status in 2019.

Tuesday’s attack is seen as a setback for what Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party have projected as a major success in removing the special status held by the state of Jammu and Kashmir and bringing peace and development to the long-troubled Muslim-majority region.

While India frequently accuses Pakistan of involvement in the insurgency in Kashmir, Islamabad maintains it only provides diplomatic and moral support.

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in Kashmir since the insurgency began in 1989, but the insurgency has waned in recent years and tourism has increased in the naturally beautiful region.

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