South Korea’s conservative president, Yoon Suk Yeol, is considering direct arms supplies to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s deployment of troops on Russia’s front line.
Seoul has so far resisted calls from its Western allies to use its substantial stockpile of military hardware, preferring to provide only non-lethal aid to Kyiv. However, analysts and diplomats suggest that North Korea’s deployment of troops in the Kursk region of western Russia, reportedly as many as 8,000 according to U.S. officials on Thursday, is shifting South Korea’s stance.
Yoon and other senior officials in Seoul describe Pyongyang’s involvement in the conflict as a threat to South Korea’s security, noting the “valuable experience” North Korean troops could gain on the battlefield. They also worry that Moscow may share advanced military technology with Pyongyang in return for its support.
In response to the deployment, Yoon vowed not to “sit idly by.” His office confirmed this week that Seoul intends to send a delegation to Ukraine to monitor North Korean forces, following a phone call between Yoon and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday.
However, the prospect of arming Ukraine faces strong opposition from South Korea’s left-wing opposition, which holds a parliamentary majority. The opposition argues that Yoon’s hardline stance toward North Korea has pushed Pyongyang closer to Moscow.
“Arming Ukraine is an extremely dangerous idea that treats people’s lives like pawns in a chess game,” said Democratic Party leader Park Chan-dae at a recent rally organized by her party. She argued that South Korea has no direct stake in the outcome of the war. Park added that Yoon “should not involve South Korea in a proxy war with North Korea in a distant country,” warning that increased involvement could “risk triggering a military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula.”
“The South Korean government is caught between foreign partners urging it to do more and an opposition calling for restraint,” said Jeongmin Kim, a senior analyst at Seoul-based information service Korea Pro.
South Korea’s decades of preparation for potential conflict with North Korea, along with its formidable defense industry, have resulted in a vast stockpile of weapons, including artillery shells, tanks, howitzers, and surface-to-surface missiles. As a close ally of the United States, South Korea frequently attends NATO summits and supplies many NATO members. Analysts note that South Korea’s weaponry would be largely compatible with equipment already used by Ukraine’s armed forces.
“South Korea’s support for Ukraine could change the course of the entire conflict,” said Henry Haggard, a senior adviser at WestExec Advisors and former counselor for political affairs at the U.S. embassy in Seoul from 2021 to 2023. “Not only do Korean companies produce world-class weapons tailored for Ukraine’s needs, but they also have the manufacturing capacity to deliver essential arms at a pace that could make a difference when needed most,” he told the Financial Times.
South Korea has indirectly supported Ukraine by replenishing U.S. stocks of 155mm artillery shells. According to Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a Korea expert at King’s College London, South Korea is providing more shells to Ukraine, albeit through third countries, than all European countries combined.
Zelensky stated on Thursday that he had sent a representative to Seoul to make “detailed” requests for artillery and air defense systems in response to North Korea’s deployment to Russia.
However, Seoul has thus far refused to provide direct lethal assistance, citing the country’s Foreign Trade Act, which restricts arms exports “other than for peaceful purposes.”
An implicit understanding exists between Seoul and Moscow that South Korea will avoid sending lethal aid to Ukraine, while Russia will limit support to North Korea. But Pacheco Pardo noted that this understanding “has now come to an end.” He added, “I think the Yoon administration will provide lethal assistance to Ukraine if it has evidence that Russia is increasing support for North Korea, especially with technologies that could enhance Pyongyang’s missile, satellite, and other high-tech programs.”
On Wednesday, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, during a meeting in Washington with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, remarked that it was “highly likely” North Korea was seeking Russian defense technology in exchange for troop deployments.
A European diplomat based in Seoul remarked that the South Korean government’s stance on arms procurement has “shifted” since the North Korean deployment, though it remains “very, very cautious.” The diplomat suggested that Seoul might wait for the U.S. presidential election’s outcome before making further decisions.
Jeongmin Kim noted that the Yoon administration may argue that providing lethal aid does not require parliamentary approval and would not violate the Foreign Trade Act, asserting that arming Ukraine would contribute to international peace by hastening the end of the war.
Such a decision, however, may face public opposition. According to a Gallup Korea poll conducted shortly after North Korean troops were reported in Russia, only 13% of South Koreans surveyed supported military assistance to Ukraine, while 66% favored limiting aid to non-military and humanitarian support.
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