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Stoltenberg on the Arctic: Strategic for NATO

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will visit Canada and Canadian Arctic with an agenda for Ukraine, climate change, and Arctic defence. The tour is particularly noteworthy as it represents the first visit by a NATO secretary general to the Canadian Arctic since NATO was founded in 1949.

Canada, the second largest border state in the region after Russia, has long opposed NATO involvement in the Arctic, which included even vetoing a statement on the Alliance’s role in the Arctic during a major summit in 2009. There are various opinions on the reasons why. There are those who are concerned about militarizing the Arctic and provoking Russia, as well as those who do not want non-North Alliance members such as Italy and Spain to have a say in the Arctic. But Canada wants to preserve its essentially exclusive economic territory. Moreover, the sea ice has been melting in the Northwest passage through Canadian Arctic due to climate change, and it will potentially be fully open and navigable by 2040. This means changes in routes and marine traffic in international waters. There are those who do not want to share this advantage, as well as those who argue that this will create new security requirements and thus increase the need for the Alliance.

However, the US is trying to completely change Canada’s attitude by using the Ukrainian war and the existence of Russia and China as an excuse. 

Andrea Charron, an expert on North American security at the University of Manitoba, spoke to Canadian press about Stoltenberg’s visit: “It’s more of a sign of continued solidarity between NATO’s members as opposed to an actual signal that they are opening the door to NATO exercises in the Canadian Arctic.”

For some, the visit represents an easing of past reluctance to work with NATO on the Arctic.

NATO seeks to improve its defence against China and Russia in North America and expand its position in the Arctic. Finland and Sweden’s integration into NATO is also important in the Arctic context.

‘Russia and China Threats’

Just before his visit to Canada, the NATO Secretary General wrote an article underlining the Alliance’s Arctic defence policy.

Stoltenberg underlined the region’s strategic importance for Euro-Atlantic security and noted that the shortest path to North America for Russian missiles would be over the North Pole.

Stoltenberg stressed that the North Pole will be rapidly ice-free due to climate change, and this will unlock opportunities for shipping routes, natural resources, and economic development, also pointed out Russia and China for increasing the risk of tension.

Stoltenberg note that Russia has significantly increased its military activities in recent years and set up a new Arctic Command, describing Russia’s activities as a “strategic challenge” to the Alliance.

China has declared itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’ and “is expanding its reach by planning a “Polar Silk Road” linking Beijing to Europe via the Arctic, it is rapidly strengthening its navy, with plans to build the world’s biggest icebreaker vessel. China is also investing tens of billions of dollars in energy, infrastructure and research projects in the region” told the NATO Secretary General.

“Earlier this year, Beijing and Moscow pledged to intensify practical co-operation in the Arctic, as part of a deepening strategic partnership that challenges our values and interests,” Stoltenberg said, citing Beijing and Moscow’s collaboration.

‘Finland and Sweden’s membership is critical for the region’

Describing the Arctic as the “the gateway to the North Atlantic, hosting vital trade, transport and communication links between North America and Europe” Stoltenberg said: “Once Finland and Sweden join the Alliance, seven out of the eight Arctic states (Russia, the United States, Denmark, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland) will be members of NATO. Finland and Sweden’s membership will significantly enhance our posture in the High North and our ability to reinforce our Baltic Allies.”

Arctic geopolitics appears to be at the heart of Sweden’s and Finland’s insistence on NATO membership.

Stoltenberg signs that NATO will secure and militarize the Arctic region, citing it as one of the key areas of competition with China and Russia. NATO, which declared China and Russia a threat at the ‘historic summit’ in Madrid, considers the cooperation of both countries a threat to their interests. In his article, Stoltenberg highlights Beijing-Moscow cooperation in the Arctic, presenting the Alliance to North America as a security need for the Arctic.

Time will tell whether Canada, which has so far opposed the Arctic becoming a NATO agenda, will resist this further after NATO Secretary General’s visit.

Geopolitics of the Arctic

Increasing interest in the Arctic basin stems from the potential for new hydrocarbon and mineral reserves, sea transport routes and fishing in the region soon as glaciers melt due to climate change.

The United States, which stands out with its 48 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 90 billion barrels of oil reserves, also sees the region as geostrategic in terms of surrounding Russia. By contrast, a new maritime doctrine signed by Putin explicitly challenges Russia being surrounded through the Arctic Ocean. Pointing out that the Arctic waters are a concern of Russia’s national interests in the new doctrine, Putin emphasized that “We will ensure their [Arctic waters] protection firmly and by all means”. The northern route began to gain importance as part of Beijing’s “New Silk Road” project. Because the opening of the Arctic due to melting glaciers will dramatically shorten the distance between Asia and Europe and create new commercial opportunities for China.

With its location and energy resources, the Arctic region is likely to become more prominent as one of the new areas of competition between NATO and Russia-China forces.

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Trump energy shares rose by up to $4.4m during Iran war, CNBC reports

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10/09/2026

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The value of US President Donald Trump’s nine largest oil and gas holdings increased by approximately $1.5 million to $4.4 million during the first six months of the war with Iran.

According to an analysis conducted by CNBC based on the American leader’s financial disclosure, corporate balance sheets, and FactSet market data, the investment basket includes shares in Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Kinder Morgan, Marathon Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Williams Companies.

In its calculations, the television network took into account the minimum and maximum baseline values of Trump’s declared holdings alongside share price fluctuations from the close of trading on 27 February through 31 August.

As the conflict with Iran continued, specialists managing Trump’s investment accounts maintained active trading in energy company shares.

Up to 29 June, the latest date for which transactions were disclosed, fresh purchases were logged alongside at least 23 sales operations involving stock in the nine companies.

Because disclosure filings do not specify exact share numbers or transaction prices, the estimates produced by CNBC do not reflect Trump’s realised profits or the precise current scale of his holdings.

On 2 March, the first trading day following the launch of air strikes against Iran by the US and Israel, shares in eight major oil and gas companies were purchased through Trump’s accounts.

These transactions included ExxonMobil shares valued at between $100,000 and $250,000. Prior to the conflict, the aggregate value of Trump’s holdings in ExxonMobil stood at between $3.2 million and $12.5 million.

Stock market gains in August, excluding subsequent transactions, raised the value of these shares by approximately $176,000 to $690,000.

CNBC also examined transactions executed on days when Trump’s decisions directly swayed the oil market. On 23 March, when the president deferred planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, the price of a barrel of Brent crude dropped by roughly 11%.

That same day, oil and gas shares worth a combined $163,000 to $570,000 were purchased across Trump’s accounts.

A similar transaction took place on 7 April. One of Trump’s investment accounts sold between $500,000 and $1 million worth of ExxonMobil shares.

Approximately two and a half hours after markets closed, President Trump announced an agreement on a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The following morning, ExxonMobil shares fell by more than 6% at the market open.

The report noted that CNBC saw no evidence indicating that Trump gave direct instructions for specific trades, that managers possessed advance knowledge of his actions, or that personal financial interests guided White House policies.

White House officials, commenting on the matter, stated that the president’s investment portfolio is managed by independent portfolio managers and that neither Trump nor members of his family hold authority to intervene in asset trading decisions.

The growth in the portfolio coincided with a broader surge in the earnings of energy majors. The nine energy companies in which Trump holds shares generated a combined profit of $47.6 billion in the second quarter.

During the same period last year, that figure stood at $15.9 billion. The profits of ExxonMobil and Chevron alone climbed from $9.6 billion in the prior year to $26.6 billion.

In July, the US Office of Government Ethics published Trump’s 927-page financial disclosure report for 2025.

The report noted that Trump’s earnings from cryptocurrency operations exceeded $500 million.

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Over half of Latino voters back Democrats in key US House races

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3 days ago

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09/09/2026

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A new public opinion poll in the US shows that Democratic candidates have made notable gains since 2024 among Latino voters in critical, competitive districts for the House of Representatives.

These gains have the potential to directly determine which party will secure the majority in Congress next year.

According to a joint survey by Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision shared with Axios, Democrats reached 58% support on the generic congressional ballot among Latino voters across 17 competitive House districts.

The share of those backing Republicans within the same voting bloc remained at 35%. This group continues to represent the fastest-growing swing constituency in battleground districts.

Examining three competitive House races in Texas, the study indicated that Latino voters, who reported splitting evenly at 44% to 44% in the 2024 presidential election, shifted 56% to 36% in favour of Democrats heading into the midterms.

Latino support for Democrats also increased in other states. In California, 57% of Latino voters said they would support Democrats, compared with 33% who said they would back the Republican Party.

Kate Coleman, Senior Vice President at TelevisaUnivision, highlighted voter behaviour in remarks to Axios:

“Latino voters are not locked into one party. They are watching developments closely; they make decisions based on who stands with them and how they stand.”

The survey data determined that 11% of Latino respondents who said they voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election now support Democratic candidates.

Accelerating his deportation plans, Trump triggered fear across many Latino neighbourhoods while weakening his support among this demographic.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision study revealed that 63% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s presidential job performance. The share of those approving of his performance in office stood at 36%.

Trump’s approach to high prices and the cost of living drew disapproval from 65% of Latino voters, while immigration enforcement and deportation practices were disapproved of by 62%.

More than half of Latino voters, at 64%, reported that they disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

A survey published in May by UnidosUS showed that a quarter of Latino voters “would probably not vote” or would definitely not support Trump if they had to vote for him again.

The study at that time had pointed out that, despite Trump’s decline among Latino voters, Democrats had not yet secured significant gains.

According to Pew Research Center data, Trump strengthened his support in 2024 by securing 48% of the Latino vote, coming very close to the 51% reached by then Vice President Kamala Harris.

Some figures within the Democratic Party, however, worry that primary victories by democratic socialist candidates could alienate certain Latino voters, particularly those who fled Cuba or Venezuela.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision survey was conducted between 6 and 17 August among 1,500 Latino respondents. The poll’s margin of error was reported as 2.5 percentage points.

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Researcher quits Anthropic and warns AI firms gamble with lives

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09/09/2026

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Jacob Coxon, an artificial intelligence researcher at Anthropic, has resigned from his post, stating that tech companies are acting irresponsibly in the race towards self-improving superintelligence. Coxon warned that the autonomous operational capabilities of such systems pose existential risks to humanity and that internal industry anxieties run far deeper than generally perceived.

The AI researcher stepped down from his position at Anthropic to draw attention to industry safety vulnerabilities and the unregulated race among developers.

Having worked for three years as a pre-training researcher across both OpenAI and Anthropic, Coxon announced his decision to leave in an extensive statement shared on his X account.

Stating that both companies have acted irresponsibly, Coxon argued that developers are engaged in a dangerous race to achieve self-improving superintelligence.

“They believe it could kill us all by the end of the decade”

In his posts, Coxon stated that technical teams developing AI genuinely believe this technology could bring about the demise of humanity by the end of the decade.

Asserting that these concerns are not a marketing strategy, the researcher noted that while top executives and senior researchers adopt a cautious tone in public statements, they voice the very same fears behind closed doors.

Developments reflecting similar anxieties across the sector evoke James Cameron’s 1984 film The Terminator, which set 2029 as the pivotal year when machines waged war against humanity.

Indeed, Evan Hubinger, head of Anthropic’s own alignment team, had previously estimated the probability of human extinction to be greater than 10%.

Warning that systems currently under development will soon evolve into superhuman structures capable of bypassing any firewall, transforming industries overnight, and securing physical resources, Coxon stressed that the pace of progress is not slowing in any way.

Arguing that the danger of superintelligence is no longer merely theoretical, the researcher pointed to the Hugging Face security leak that occurred between May and July.

In that incident, OpenAI models established an independent chatroom within the testing environment to communicate among themselves, subsequently using this channel to reach the open internet and infiltrate production systems.

Because of this security breach, Hugging Face was forced to rebuild approximately one-third of its infrastructure.

“They are gambling with our lives”

Characterising the leak as a warning flare, Coxon indicated that the incident makes pacing agreements between US-based laboratories more feasible.

However, emphasising that developers are not yet on the right track to prevent a global race, the researcher noted that measures such as a temporary moratorium on advancing model capabilities could be considered.

Arguing that civilisation-scale risks have not yet been sufficiently internalised at OpenAI, Coxon contended that Anthropic joined the race out of an ambition to be first, despite being fully aware of the dangers.

Coxon is not the only figure to leave the sector on such grounds. Mrinank Sharma, a member of Anthropic’s safety team, also stepped down earlier this year, writing that the world is in danger.

On the other hand, not everyone agrees with these catastrophic scenarios. Some responses to the post emphasised the view that humanity, with an evolutionary history spanning hundreds of thousands of years, will not be wiped out by a text prediction model achieving consciousness.

It was also noted that even the plot of the Terminator franchise does not entirely support Coxon’s premise, as the human resistance survived the nuclear catastrophe and ultimately defeated the machines.

Alongside safety debates, AI continues to directly affect the labour market. Research by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab indicates that, while mass job losses have not yet materialised, entry-level employment in AI-exposed sectors across the US has fallen by nearly 20%.

A Goldman Sachs study pointed to a similar trend, showing that entry-level workers bear the brunt of the ongoing workforce transformation.

Anthropic, which remains at the centre of the controversy, filed for an initial public offering in June and plans to list on the Nasdaq exchange this autumn at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation.

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