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The fragile state

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Pakistan has been suffering from economic, political, and security challenges. The mounting insecurity and recent terrorist attacks that killed a number of security forces, have painted a grim picture ahead of general elections expected in October. No one can also deny the prospect of military interference that looms large.

Pakistan started the New Year “2023” with so many difficulties. The government that took over in April 2022 is finding it difficult to calm domestic politics and rescue the economy. It also failed miserably in the security arena. The incumbent government also failed to chalk out a clear foreign policy and bolster national security to help secure the nuclear South Asian nation of over 230 million populations.

The country’s new army chief just assumed the powerful post, and it is not clear how he might influence the course of events. The former army chief reiterated after six years, where many people accused him of incompetence that turned Pakistan into political instability.

Meanwhile, the former Prime Minister Imran Khan accused the army establishment of interfering to topple his government, where he called it a foreign conspiracy as well.

Ex-premier Khan is calm after Fawad’s arrest

Former PM, and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan on Thursday said that if the “state and cabal of crooks think they can create an environment of fear and terrify us into submission, they have got it all wrong.”

Khan’s comments come a day after PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry, and a former federal minister was arrested from his Lahore residence in the wee hours of Wednesday after he publicly threatened the members of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and their families in a media talk a day earlier.

In a Twitter post, Khan said that the treatment being “meted out to Fawad Ch – being abducted, treated like a terrorist, given physical remand on a sham FIR – shows all that is wrong with Pakistan today.”

“There is no justice, just law of the jungle. If the State and cabal of crooks think they can create an environment of fear and terrify us into submission, they have got it all wrong,” he added.

Khan furthered, “People are more determined to stand up against this fascism and my Party and I are more resolute than ever before to fight against these fascist forces for democracy, rule of law and justice for our people.”

Fawad should be behind bar earlier

Ex-Punjab chief minister Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, without naming Fawad Chaudhry, said had the former federal minister been arrested earlier, it would have been more “favorable”.

“Imran Khan’s close aides struck at the roots of the PTI. One out of four or five people, who are close to Khan, has been arrested. Things would be better if he was arrested earlier,” Elahi said Thursday during his address at an event in Lahore according to The News.

Chaudhry was arrested and taken to Islamabad, where the capital’s police were granted a two-day remand of the PTI leader in the sedition case. His arrest also drew strong criticism.

However, hours after making remarks about PTI’s incarcerated leader, Elahi took a U-turn and tendered an apology for his statement during the event.

“We have long standing family terms with Fawad,” he said in a statement, adding that his recent remarks hurt the sentiments of his family and for it, he apologizes.

The new documentary

In a new documentary “Behind Closed Doors” ex-Primer Khan beside politics wrangling said that western nations are benefiting from corruption across Asia and that’s why they don’t have intention to stop corruption. Khan claimed that the West is “benefiting from money stolen from our countries.” The documentary will be coming out next month.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan

Khan voted out of confidence last April in what he believes was a US-orchestrated plot. He also survived an assassination attempt.

His testimony on corruption is the centerpiece of Behind Closed Doors, a daring new film by independent director Michael Oswald and producer Murtaza Mehdi.

Oswald is known for his previous work on tax havens, The Spider’s Web: Britain’s Second Empire.

“They are benefiting from billions of dollars which flow into their properties and their businesses stolen from this country,” Khan said according to Declassified UK.

“So, what incentive would they have? We are the ones who suffer, and this is the dilemma…this is the big problem which the entire developing world is facing.”

Khan was replaced by Shehbaz Sharif, who has been accused of embezzling funds to purchase a property in London. However, Shehbaz’s family denied the allegation.

Sluggish economy

Pakistan has so far failed to fulfill IMF conditions. Meanwhile, a $13 billion loan from Saudi Arabia and China has yet to materialize. Even if Pakistan gets the money, it will only add to the country’s $130 billion debt in a country with only a $376 billion economy in 2022.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has a plan to go for another $10 billion in debt to China with a significant upgrade of the national railway.

Pakistan has seen the economic growth by 2 percent in 2022, and its foreign reserves now stand at a perilously low of less than $6 billion. This money is not enough to cover even one month of imports.

The major setback was the extensive flooding in 2022 that killed 1,700 people and left billions of dollars in damage. Over 30 million people were displaced from their homes and also the flooding devastated agriculture and industrial park activities. Several industries have been forced to shut down after being unable to get access to electricity and natural gas. Pakistan has been considering a $16 billion flood-relief package from international donors.

It will be a great catastrophe for the country if the government fails to improve its economy before the next general election, and in that case, the incumbent government will be blameworthy for all the miseries.

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Border tensions rise between India and Pakistan

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Tensions between India and Pakistan are escalating following a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir last week. New Delhi is deepening its search for militants identified as Pakistani nationals responsible for the attack, while clashes are occurring with Pakistan along the de facto border.

Following the April 22 attack that killed 26 people, India identified two of the three suspected militants as Pakistani, but Islamabad denied any role in the incident and called for an impartial investigation.

The attack sparked widespread anger in India, with calls rising among Hindu nationalists for action against Pakistan, which New Delhi accuses of financing and encouraging Islamist terror in Kashmir, a region claimed by both countries and the site of two wars.

The two nuclear-armed countries have taken a series of measures against each other. India suspended the critical Indus Water Treaty, while Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian airlines.

The Indian army stated that around midnight on Sunday, it responded to “unprovoked” small arms fire from several Pakistan army posts along the 740 km (460 mile) de facto border separating the Indian and Pakistani parts of Kashmir. No further details were provided, and no casualties were reported.

The Pakistan army did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

In a separate statement, the Pakistan army said it had killed 54 Islamist militants attempting to enter the country from the western Afghan border in the past two days.

Indian defense forces have conducted several military exercises across the country since the attack. A defense official said some of these were routine readiness drills.

A local police official told Reuters on Monday that security forces had detained around 500 people for questioning after searching approximately 1,000 homes and forests in India’s Kashmir region in search of militants.

The official added that at least nine homes had been demolished so far.

Political leaders in the state called for caution in the government’s counter-terrorism actions to ensure innocent people are not harmed following the bloodiest incident in India in the last two decades.

Jammu and Kashmir’s chief minister, Omar Abdullah, stated on X on Saturday, “It is time to avoid missteps that will alienate the public. Punish the culprits, show them no mercy, but do not allow innocent people to be harmed.”

The organization known as Kashmir Resistance, also referred to as The Resistance Front, stated in a message posted on X that it was “absolutely” not involved in last week’s attack, following an initial message claiming responsibility.

The group, seen as an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, attributed the previous social media post claiming responsibility to a “cyber attack.”

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Apple plans to move US iPhone assembly to India

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According to people familiar with the matter, Apple plans to shift the assembly of all iPhones sold in the US to India starting next year, as President Donald Trump’s trade war forces the tech giant away from China.

This move, based on Apple’s strategy to diversify its supply chain, is progressing further and faster than investors appreciate, according to the Financial Times. The goal is for all more than 60 million iPhones sold annually in the US to be sourced from India by the end of 2026.

This target means doubling iPhone production in India, following nearly two decades where Apple spent heavily in China to build a worldwide production line that enabled it to become a $3 trillion tech giant.

China, where Apple produces most of its iPhones through third parties like Foxconn, has been subject to the US president’s most aggressive tariffs, although Washington has since signaled its willingness to negotiate with Beijing.

Following Trump’s tariff announcements that wiped $700 billion off Apple’s market value, the company rushed to export existing iPhones produced in India to the US to avoid higher tariffs imposed on China.

Apple has been steadily developing capacity in India with contract manufacturers Tata Electronics and Foxconn in recent years, but still assembles most of its smartphones in China.

iPhone assembly, the final step in the production process, brings together hundreds of components that Apple still largely relies on Chinese suppliers for.

Trump initially announced that reciprocal tariffs of over 100% would be applied to imports from China, but later proposed a temporary reprieve for smartphones. These devices are still subject to a separate rate of 20% applicable to all imports from China.

A so-called reciprocal tariff of 26% was applied to India, but this application was paused as New Delhi pushed for a bilateral trade agreement with the US. Visiting India this week, US Vice President JD Vance said the two countries were making “very good progress”.

According to International Data Corporation, the US accounts for approximately 28% of Apple’s 232.1 million global iPhone shipments in 2024.

Apple will need to further increase its capacity in India to meet all orders from the US.

Last year, as the iPhone maker sought to increase its production in India, Foxconn and Tata began importing pre-assembled component kits from China.

“We believe this will be a significant move for Apple to continue its growth and momentum,” said Daniel Newman, CEO of research firm Futurum Group. He added, “We are seeing in real time how a company with these resources moves at relatively light speed to address tariff risk.”

Apple is set to announce its quarterly earnings next week as investors try to understand the impact of Trump’s tariff plans. The company does not provide specific guidance on earnings and avoids discussing tariffs.

Chief Executive Tim Cook has been in regular contact with Trump and his administration since attending the president’s inauguration in January.

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Afghanistan’s trade route with India via Pakistan closed following tensions in Kashmir

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Afghanistan’s trade with India through Pakistan has been halted due to closure of the Attari-Wagah border. The Hindustan Times reported that the border, which is the only land route allowed for trade, is now closed and the local economy will be affected.

According to the report, this route is vital for importing goods from Afghanistan to India, and if it is stopped, trade with Afghanistan will also be severely affected.

The closure came after terrorist attacks and political developments in Kashmir.

Some merchants have announced that they will seek alternative routes for importing goods, but the economic impacts of this decision will remain serious, especially for small merchants and industries.

The decision came after gunmen shot and killed at least 26 tourists on Tuesday at a resort in Indian-controlled Kashmir.

Police blamed militants fighting against Indian rule for the attack in Baisaran meadown. The attack took place 5 kilometers away from the disputed region’s resort town of Paghalgam.

Pakistan alarmed the world of a possible war between India and Pakistan

Meanwhile, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif warned that the world should be concerned about the possibility of war between the two nuclear-armed countries, Pakistan and India.

In an interview with Sky News, Asif on Friday said that the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan could escalate into a full-scale war.

Asif added that Pakistan would respond appropriately in case of any full-scale attack by India. He expressed hope that despite the escalation of tensions, the issue could be resolved through talks.

Asif statement’s interview came when India accused Pakistan of involvement in the attack, but Islamabad has denied the allegations, calling it a “false flag” operation.

India, in immediate action, decided to suspend the Indus Water Treaty and made further threats against Pakistan following the attack. These actions by India have raised further concerns about increasing tensions in the region.

Pakistan, in response to India’s actions, has also warned that any attempt to change the flow of shared waters under the Indus Water Treaty will be considered an “act of war.”

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