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Liberals secure victory in Canada, minority government likely

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The Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has reportedly won the early general election held in Canada on April 28.

According to CTV and CBS news channels, Carney retained his position as prime minister with this result, but his party is not expected to achieve a majority needed to form a government alone.

Although the final results have not yet been announced, CBS estimates that the Liberals will secure 158 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.

The main rival Conservative Party is projected to win 148 seats, the Bloc Québécois 25, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) 10 seats. A majority government in Canada requires 172 seats.

The decision for an early election was initiated by the 60-year-old Liberal Party leader Mark Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau after his resignation.

In late March, Carney requested an early election from Mary Simon, the Governor General of Canada appointed by the Queen of England.

According to the normal schedule, the elections were planned for October.

In late December last year, the Liberals’ chances of staying in power seemed quite low due to the rapid decline in Trudeau’s popularity, and polls indicated that the Conservatives were leading by more than 20 points.

However, the leadership change in the Liberal Party allowed the party not only to close the gap but also, according to public opinion polls, to pull ahead of their rivals by a few points.

According to research conducted by Abacus, Carney’s public support (46%) was also higher than that of his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre (39%) before the election.

Unlike his younger rival Poilievre, Carney is a new name in politics. Carney earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Harvard University in 1988, where he also played on the university’s hockey team.

He continued to play hockey while earning his master’s and doctoral degrees at Oxford. Parallel to his education, Carney began working at Goldman Sachs, where he served for 13 years in the company’s Boston, London, New York, Tokyo, and Toronto branches.

In 2003, Carney left the private sector to become Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, and later served as Senior Associate Deputy Minister in the Department of Finance.

He took the helm of the Bank of Canada in 2007, on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. His successes in this role led to an offer to return to London in 2013, this time as Governor of the Bank of England.

Carney, the first foreigner appointed to this position, witnessed two significant referendums in the history of the United Kingdom: Scotland’s separation from the UK (which failed) and the UK’s departure from the European Union.

The final weeks of his tenure at the Bank of England coincided with the beginning of another sharp crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic. Carney acquired British and Irish citizenship in 2018 (although he announced plans to relinquish them in 2025).

After leaving the Bank of England, Carney advised the Trudeau government on economic matters and returned to the private sector.

In September last year, he was appointed chair of the party’s economic growth working group by then-Prime Minister Trudeau.

Following Trudeau’s resignation in January 2025, Carney entered the party’s leadership race, his first election, and won an overwhelming victory, receiving approximately 86% of the votes. Along with the Liberal Party leadership, he also took the prime minister’s seat.

According to the Abacus poll, relations with the new US President Donald Trump and the response to his tariff policy were among the most important issues for Canadian voters in these elections, after the cost of living crisis.

Carney described the US tariffs as a “direct attack” on Canadians and stated, “There is no going back. As Canada, we will have to build new relations with the United States.”

Carney is focusing on retaliatory tariffs and diversifying trade partners.

In this context, his first foreign visits as prime minister were to France and the UK; however, the New York Times notes that opportunities to increase exports to European markets appear limited for now.

Carney is not rushing to make a trade agreement with the US immediately and argues that Canada has sufficient leverage to adopt a “wait and see” position.

“My government will make the right deal,” Carney promised.

Even before taking office, Trump had threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, citing their insufficient efforts to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking across their shared borders.

On March 4, 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico came into effect, but products covered by the trilateral trade agreement were later exempted from these tariffs.

On March 12, the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum (Canada is a key supplier of both), and on March 26, 25% tariffs on all automobiles imported into the US, including American brands manufactured abroad.

Trump even threatened on April 23 that he might soon increase the rate for cars imported from Canada, stating, “With all due respect, we don’t need your cars. We really want to make our own cars.”

Carney also promised support for Canadian workers affected by the tariffs, funded by revenue from retaliatory tariffs.

According to information on the Liberal Party’s website, the Canadian prime minister also announced tax cuts that will ease the economic burden on 22 million Canadians, particularly those with middle and low incomes.

Carney also pledges to double the pace of housing construction, modernize the healthcare system, and continue the policy of reducing emissions and using alternative energy sources.

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Trump energy shares rose by up to $4.4m during Iran war, CNBC reports

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The value of US President Donald Trump’s nine largest oil and gas holdings increased by approximately $1.5 million to $4.4 million during the first six months of the war with Iran.

According to an analysis conducted by CNBC based on the American leader’s financial disclosure, corporate balance sheets, and FactSet market data, the investment basket includes shares in Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Kinder Morgan, Marathon Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Williams Companies.

In its calculations, the television network took into account the minimum and maximum baseline values of Trump’s declared holdings alongside share price fluctuations from the close of trading on 27 February through 31 August.

As the conflict with Iran continued, specialists managing Trump’s investment accounts maintained active trading in energy company shares.

Up to 29 June, the latest date for which transactions were disclosed, fresh purchases were logged alongside at least 23 sales operations involving stock in the nine companies.

Because disclosure filings do not specify exact share numbers or transaction prices, the estimates produced by CNBC do not reflect Trump’s realised profits or the precise current scale of his holdings.

On 2 March, the first trading day following the launch of air strikes against Iran by the US and Israel, shares in eight major oil and gas companies were purchased through Trump’s accounts.

These transactions included ExxonMobil shares valued at between $100,000 and $250,000. Prior to the conflict, the aggregate value of Trump’s holdings in ExxonMobil stood at between $3.2 million and $12.5 million.

Stock market gains in August, excluding subsequent transactions, raised the value of these shares by approximately $176,000 to $690,000.

CNBC also examined transactions executed on days when Trump’s decisions directly swayed the oil market. On 23 March, when the president deferred planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, the price of a barrel of Brent crude dropped by roughly 11%.

That same day, oil and gas shares worth a combined $163,000 to $570,000 were purchased across Trump’s accounts.

A similar transaction took place on 7 April. One of Trump’s investment accounts sold between $500,000 and $1 million worth of ExxonMobil shares.

Approximately two and a half hours after markets closed, President Trump announced an agreement on a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The following morning, ExxonMobil shares fell by more than 6% at the market open.

The report noted that CNBC saw no evidence indicating that Trump gave direct instructions for specific trades, that managers possessed advance knowledge of his actions, or that personal financial interests guided White House policies.

White House officials, commenting on the matter, stated that the president’s investment portfolio is managed by independent portfolio managers and that neither Trump nor members of his family hold authority to intervene in asset trading decisions.

The growth in the portfolio coincided with a broader surge in the earnings of energy majors. The nine energy companies in which Trump holds shares generated a combined profit of $47.6 billion in the second quarter.

During the same period last year, that figure stood at $15.9 billion. The profits of ExxonMobil and Chevron alone climbed from $9.6 billion in the prior year to $26.6 billion.

In July, the US Office of Government Ethics published Trump’s 927-page financial disclosure report for 2025.

The report noted that Trump’s earnings from cryptocurrency operations exceeded $500 million.

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Over half of Latino voters back Democrats in key US House races

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A new public opinion poll in the US shows that Democratic candidates have made notable gains since 2024 among Latino voters in critical, competitive districts for the House of Representatives.

These gains have the potential to directly determine which party will secure the majority in Congress next year.

According to a joint survey by Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision shared with Axios, Democrats reached 58% support on the generic congressional ballot among Latino voters across 17 competitive House districts.

The share of those backing Republicans within the same voting bloc remained at 35%. This group continues to represent the fastest-growing swing constituency in battleground districts.

Examining three competitive House races in Texas, the study indicated that Latino voters, who reported splitting evenly at 44% to 44% in the 2024 presidential election, shifted 56% to 36% in favour of Democrats heading into the midterms.

Latino support for Democrats also increased in other states. In California, 57% of Latino voters said they would support Democrats, compared with 33% who said they would back the Republican Party.

Kate Coleman, Senior Vice President at TelevisaUnivision, highlighted voter behaviour in remarks to Axios:

“Latino voters are not locked into one party. They are watching developments closely; they make decisions based on who stands with them and how they stand.”

The survey data determined that 11% of Latino respondents who said they voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election now support Democratic candidates.

Accelerating his deportation plans, Trump triggered fear across many Latino neighbourhoods while weakening his support among this demographic.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision study revealed that 63% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s presidential job performance. The share of those approving of his performance in office stood at 36%.

Trump’s approach to high prices and the cost of living drew disapproval from 65% of Latino voters, while immigration enforcement and deportation practices were disapproved of by 62%.

More than half of Latino voters, at 64%, reported that they disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

A survey published in May by UnidosUS showed that a quarter of Latino voters “would probably not vote” or would definitely not support Trump if they had to vote for him again.

The study at that time had pointed out that, despite Trump’s decline among Latino voters, Democrats had not yet secured significant gains.

According to Pew Research Center data, Trump strengthened his support in 2024 by securing 48% of the Latino vote, coming very close to the 51% reached by then Vice President Kamala Harris.

Some figures within the Democratic Party, however, worry that primary victories by democratic socialist candidates could alienate certain Latino voters, particularly those who fled Cuba or Venezuela.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision survey was conducted between 6 and 17 August among 1,500 Latino respondents. The poll’s margin of error was reported as 2.5 percentage points.

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Researcher quits Anthropic and warns AI firms gamble with lives

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Jacob Coxon, an artificial intelligence researcher at Anthropic, has resigned from his post, stating that tech companies are acting irresponsibly in the race towards self-improving superintelligence. Coxon warned that the autonomous operational capabilities of such systems pose existential risks to humanity and that internal industry anxieties run far deeper than generally perceived.

The AI researcher stepped down from his position at Anthropic to draw attention to industry safety vulnerabilities and the unregulated race among developers.

Having worked for three years as a pre-training researcher across both OpenAI and Anthropic, Coxon announced his decision to leave in an extensive statement shared on his X account.

Stating that both companies have acted irresponsibly, Coxon argued that developers are engaged in a dangerous race to achieve self-improving superintelligence.

“They believe it could kill us all by the end of the decade”

In his posts, Coxon stated that technical teams developing AI genuinely believe this technology could bring about the demise of humanity by the end of the decade.

Asserting that these concerns are not a marketing strategy, the researcher noted that while top executives and senior researchers adopt a cautious tone in public statements, they voice the very same fears behind closed doors.

Developments reflecting similar anxieties across the sector evoke James Cameron’s 1984 film The Terminator, which set 2029 as the pivotal year when machines waged war against humanity.

Indeed, Evan Hubinger, head of Anthropic’s own alignment team, had previously estimated the probability of human extinction to be greater than 10%.

Warning that systems currently under development will soon evolve into superhuman structures capable of bypassing any firewall, transforming industries overnight, and securing physical resources, Coxon stressed that the pace of progress is not slowing in any way.

Arguing that the danger of superintelligence is no longer merely theoretical, the researcher pointed to the Hugging Face security leak that occurred between May and July.

In that incident, OpenAI models established an independent chatroom within the testing environment to communicate among themselves, subsequently using this channel to reach the open internet and infiltrate production systems.

Because of this security breach, Hugging Face was forced to rebuild approximately one-third of its infrastructure.

“They are gambling with our lives”

Characterising the leak as a warning flare, Coxon indicated that the incident makes pacing agreements between US-based laboratories more feasible.

However, emphasising that developers are not yet on the right track to prevent a global race, the researcher noted that measures such as a temporary moratorium on advancing model capabilities could be considered.

Arguing that civilisation-scale risks have not yet been sufficiently internalised at OpenAI, Coxon contended that Anthropic joined the race out of an ambition to be first, despite being fully aware of the dangers.

Coxon is not the only figure to leave the sector on such grounds. Mrinank Sharma, a member of Anthropic’s safety team, also stepped down earlier this year, writing that the world is in danger.

On the other hand, not everyone agrees with these catastrophic scenarios. Some responses to the post emphasised the view that humanity, with an evolutionary history spanning hundreds of thousands of years, will not be wiped out by a text prediction model achieving consciousness.

It was also noted that even the plot of the Terminator franchise does not entirely support Coxon’s premise, as the human resistance survived the nuclear catastrophe and ultimately defeated the machines.

Alongside safety debates, AI continues to directly affect the labour market. Research by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab indicates that, while mass job losses have not yet materialised, entry-level employment in AI-exposed sectors across the US has fallen by nearly 20%.

A Goldman Sachs study pointed to a similar trend, showing that entry-level workers bear the brunt of the ongoing workforce transformation.

Anthropic, which remains at the centre of the controversy, filed for an initial public offering in June and plans to list on the Nasdaq exchange this autumn at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation.

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