Connect with us

ASIA

The impact of current changes in Bangladesh and regional implications

Published

on

The ongoing changes in Bangladesh are creating ripples not only within its borders but also across the region. The nature and consequences of these changes, although not fully clear yet, appear detrimental to both Bangladesh and its neighboring countries. Since mid-August 2021, a new global dynamic has been unfolding, with significant upheavals influenced by dominant forces, particularly the United States and its allies.

Contrary to typical movements, the current resistance against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government did not originate from religious or linguistic biases. Instead, it stemmed from dissatisfaction among the youth, military officials, and state employees over the allocation of a 40pc quota for certain groups. This quota system, particularly favoring soldiers’ children, ignited widespread protests. The discontentment, coupled with increasing extremism, signals troubling times ahead for Bangladesh, potentially transforming the country into a military stronghold, reminiscent of the post-1971 era after Pakistan’s partition.

The 1970s witnessed South Asia experiencing a series of trans-formative events, beginning with Pakistan’s division, largely due to misguided policies by its military, especially General Ayub Khan. This period marked significant shifts that primarily benefited the United States, enhancing its influence in the region. Today, similar patterns seem to be reemerging, with the U.S. unwilling to relinquish its strategic gains from the 70s and 80s.

Political crisis is being systematically cultivated in the region

Post-1971, the collapse of Pakistan led to monumental changes in neighboring countries. The imperial regimes in Iran and Afghanistan were overthrown. Saudi Arabia’s King Faisal was assassinated by his nephew, and Egypt’s Anwar Sadat met a similar fate. In Pakistan, on July 5, 1977, General Zia-ul-Haq, despite an existing understanding between the ruling party and the opposition, ousted Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, establishing a regime with the support of conservative religious factions.

Today, with substantial financial and technical backing from the U.S., former Mujahideen, now the Taliban, have seized power in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, a political crisis is being systematically cultivated. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, led by Imran Khan, is seeking power. Despite holding power, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party find their hands tied by the military establishment.

Current crisis is due to the influence of the US and its allies which is spreading across the Asian-and-Gulf countries and beyond

The influence of the United States and its allies extends beyond Pakistan. Saudi Arabia, once a steadfast ally, has lost its credibility. The UAE, Qatar, and other loyalists are investing trillions of dollars, aligning more closely with American interests. Intelligence operations by the U.S. have systematically targeted Iran, asserting control over the Arab world.

Meanwhile, Russia is preoccupied with the Ukraine conflict, reducing its influence in the region. China’s focus remains on economic expansion, aiming to dominate global consumer markets rather than directly confronting the U.S. These geopolitical maneuvers suggest that the instability in Bangladesh could have broader implications for regional politics, particularly for Pakistan.

The internal turmoil in Bangladesh poses significant challenges for the region

The internal turmoil in Bangladesh, largely manipulated by Jamaat-e-Islami and other factions with vested interests, reflects a broader regional strategy. The majority of Bangladeshis regard Sheikh Mujibur Rahman as their true political leader, and state institutions have classified Jamaat-e-Islami’s militant wings, Al-Shams and Al-Badr, as terrorist organizations. Conversely, Pakistan’s political landscape is marked by a long list of alleged traitors, yet leaders like Sher-e-Bangla Maulvi Fazlul Haq and Hussain Shaheed Suhrawardy remain revered figures.

In conclusion, the evolving situation in Bangladesh, driven by both internal dissent and external influences, poses significant challenges for the region. The lessons from the past, particularly the events of the 1970s, highlight the importance of regional stability and the risks associated with foreign interventions. As these dynamics continue to unfold, it is crucial for region countries to prioritize their internal stability and contribute to regional peace.

ASIA

Trust issue: Pakistan and Afghanistan to boost up fraternal ties

Published

on

Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Ambassador Mohammad Sadiq, and his delegation, visited Kabul and held a series of talks with the top Taliban leadership, including interior and foreign ministries.

This is Sadiq’s first visit to Kabul after being assigned as Special Representative for Afghanistan and the reason for his visit was to enhance mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields and advance the fraternal ties between the two neighboring countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Sadiq announced the trip on X, saying, “looking forward to meaningful discussions with Afghanistan’s interim ministers (Taliban officials) to strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation.”

During the trip, Sadiq first met with Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s acting interior minister – who has lots of influence in Khost, Paktia and Paktika provinces. According to Pakistan, these provinces are the places of movement of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and basically, Kabul and Islamabad relations deteriorated as Pakistan wants Afghanistan to smash on the movements of the TTP inside Afghan soil. However, the Taliban leadership says there are no TTP fighters in the country, and Taliban will not allow any group, including TTP to pose a threat to Afghanistan and to the regional countries.

During the meeting, Sadiq and Haqqani discussed a range of bilateral issues of common interest. Both sides agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation in various fields to further enhance the fraternal relations between the two countries. The Afghan Ministry of Interior in a statement said that both sides discussed important topics for the improvement of relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan and the solution of existing problems. The Pakistani delegation also expressed their condolences on the assassination of Khalilur Rehman Haqqani, the uncle of Sirajuddin Haqqani and key member of the Haqqani network.

Sadiq first met with Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqain against diplomatic norms to first meet with Foreign Minister 

Khili Haqqani was the first Taliban official who entered Kabul when the Taliban overthrew the former Afghan government following withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan after 20 years of presence. He has served as refugee minister since victory day on August 15 2021. He was killed by a Daesh suicide bomber inside his ministry compound.

Referring to the pessimism of the Taliban leader towards the Haqqani network, the former deputy of the European Union in Afghanistan, Michael Semple does not consider it unlikely that the members of the Taliban supreme leader were involved in the assassination of Khalil Haqqani. Michael Semple said that his assassination dealt a heavy blow to the Haqqani network and that the Taliban would likely pay a price for this.

The Haqqani family has denied the involvement of members of the Taliban supreme leader in the assassination of Khalil Haqqani. Haqqani family members insisted on the unity of the Taliban and the Haqqani family’s obedience to Hebatullah Akhundzadeh, the Taliban’s supreme leader. Their statements were made to deny rumors of differences or the involvement of people close to Hebatullah in Khalil Haqqanis assassination.

But Semple says that Hebatullah was particularly concerned about the Haqqani network’s contacts with Taliban opposition groups and foreign powers.

He added that Khalil Haqqani was more active in this field compared to other Taliban officials, because he had a political and social personality.

Semple said that Khalil Haqqani had connections with the Taliban opposition front and some foreign powers. According to him, although the Haqqani network, especially Sirajuddin Haqqani, have tried to convince the Taliban leader that they are aligned and united, Hebatullah has doubts about them.

He emphasized that Khalil Haqqani had contacts with Sirajuddin, which seemed “illegitimate” from Hebatullah’s point of view.” Sepmel reminded that Khalil Haqqani is not the first Taliban minister who was killed. During the first period of Taliban rule, Mullah Abdul Raqib was killed due to foreign contacts.

Former deputy of the European Union in Afghanistan underlined trust issue between Kandahar Taliban and the Haqqani’s 

The former diplomat. Sempel said that it is possible that the suicide bomber was a member of ISIS in the past, but he managed to assassinate Haqqani with the support of the Kandahar faction.

Sample clarified that the loss of Khalil Haqqani has put a serious blow to the Haqqani network, adding that Khalil Haqqani was one of the survivors of Jalaluddin Haqqani, the leader and founder of Haqqani network, who played a major role in the diplomacy of this network.

Pakistan Special Envoy Sadiq met with Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, where they agreed to work together to further strengthen bilateral cooperation as well as for peace and progress in the region.

Meanwhile, Sadiq also met with Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi on Tuesday, where they held wide ranging discussions. “Agreed to work together to further strengthen bilateral cooperation as well as for peace and progress in the region,” Sadiq said.

The Afghan Foreign Ministry in a statement said both sides discussed bilateral relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, enhancing diplomatic relations, trade, transit, and people-to-people relations.

Also, Sadiq met with Afghan traders and chamber representatives from across Afghanistan to discuss enhanced trade cooperation and economic ties, fostering a stronger bilateral relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The visit comes at a time where ties between Islamabad and Kabul have deteriorated in recent months, especially tensions have flared over the activities of the TTP, an armed group that has escalated attacks in Pakistan since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021.

Pakistani top officials, including Prime Minister and the country’s defense minister accused the Taliban of providing safe havens for TTP, an allegation the Taliban denied in strongest possible terms.

Pakistan says that Kabul allowed the TTP fighters to cross the border and carry attacks against the country’s security forces and border guards.

Continue Reading

ASIA

China plans $411bn private treasury bond issuance in 2025

Published

on

Chinese authorities have approved a record issuance of 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in private treasury bonds for 2025, according to two sources cited by Reuters. The move signals Beijing’s commitment to using fiscal stimulus to address economic stagnation.

This represents a significant increase from the 1 trillion yuan issued this year and coincides with preparations for potential tariff hikes on Chinese imports as Donald Trump is expected to reassume the U.S. presidency in January.

The proceeds will target initiatives such as consumer subsidies, business equipment upgrades, and investments in innovation-driven sectors. According to the sources, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue, the plan underscores China’s proactive approach to offsetting deflationary pressures.

Officials from the State Council Information Office, Ministry of Finance, and National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) did not immediately comment on the development.

Following the announcement, yields on China’s 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds rose by 1 basis point and 2 basis points, respectively. The planned issuance, the largest on record, demonstrates Beijing’s willingness to expand borrowing to stabilize the world’s second-largest economy.

China generally reserves ultra-long-term corporate bonds for extraordinary circumstances, reflecting the significance of this initiative.

Approximately 1.3 trillion yuan from the new issuance will fund “two major” and “two new” programs: A consumer subsidy program to encourage trade-ins for new vehicles and appliances, subsidies for large-scale business equipment upgrades, and infrastructure projects in critical sectors, including railways, airports, and farmland.

The NDRC reported that 70% of the proceeds from this year’s bond issuance funded major projects, while the remainder supported new schemes.

Another significant portion, exceeding 1 trillion yuan, will drive investments in advanced manufacturing, including electric vehicles, robotics, semiconductors, and green energy. Additionally, funds will recapitalize state-owned banks struggling with shrinking margins, declining profits, and rising non-performing loans.

The issuance will account for 2.4% of China’s 2023 GDP. For comparison, Beijing’s 2007 issuance of 1.55 trillion yuan represented 5.7% of GDP at the time.

The announcement follows the annual Central Economic Work Conference, where President Xi Jinping and senior officials outlined economic plans for 2025. The state media summary emphasized “steady economic growth,” raising the fiscal deficit ratio, and increasing government debt issuance, without detailing figures.

Recent Reuters reports indicate China may raise its budget deficit to a record 4% of GDP and aim for an economic growth target of around 5% next year.

China’s economy faces multiple headwinds, including a protracted property crisis, rising local government debt, and weak consumer demand. Exports, traditionally a growth driver, risk new U.S. tariffs of over 60%, threatening another economic lifeline.

Domestic consumption remains subdued, with households grappling with falling property values and minimal social safety nets. To counter weak demand, Beijing plans to expand its consumer and industrial equipment swap programs to more products and sectors.

Continue Reading

ASIA

“Good” and “bad” armed groups

Published

on

These days, the topic of comparing the Taliban and Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has become a hot topic in the media outlets and social networks. The head of HTS recently said that Syria will not turn into another Afghanistan, because both countries have different social and cultural situations and Afghanistan has tribal structures.

His words have provoked different reactions from Afghan social media users – some have confirmed these statements of Jolani, but some have opposed them. However, the words of the leader of the HTS delegation that Syria will not become another Afghanistan and his gentle and flexible approach to the people have attracted the attention of many.

Jolani has now become the next leader of Syria from the leadership of an old “terrorist” group, and both countries, including Russia, which supported Bashar Assad’s regime, also want political interaction with him. Although it is too early to believe all the words of Jolani, it is clear that he has so far introduced himself as a practical and moderate figure.

He has been able to gain the attention of the Syrian people and the media and be ahead of other Islamists. On the other side of the story, we are dealing with the Taliban, the group that in the last three years has only secretly invited people to follow them with the language of force and violence, including threats, beatings, arrests, torture, and murders. The Taliban came to reform the people they believed in, not to listen to the people’s demands through moderation and to respect the internationally accepted principles.

If we analyze the current situation of Syria and Afghanistan from the point of view of political realism, then we are faced with two different attitudes: one representative is the Tahrir al-Sham group led by Ahmed al-Shara and the other representative is the Taliban group led by Mullah Hibatullah.

“Bad” or “worse” “terrorists”, a common scourge of realism in today’s politics.

Both groups are hardline Islamic groups and have extensive backgrounds in “terrorism”, but their attitudes differ from each other. The first group tries to conform to the demands of the people and the world, while the second group stubbornly wants the people and the world to submit to their demands.

The first group wants to interact with the people and the world, but the second group insists that they will not interact.

HTS’s leader (L) and the Taliban Prime Minister (R)

The main fear of the Taliban and other ideological groups, whether they are right-wing or left-wing, is death. Based on this reason, in order to preserve their old beliefs and sacred values, which have become old since time and are no longer hurting the society in the process of change, they are willing to commit any kind of crime.

Some groups, such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, when they realize the failure of their long-term efforts to achieve their imaginary and ambitious goals, they come to the conclusion that without accepting flexibility and leaving aside reality for political stability, which is always changing, he has no other choice.

These groups, however outwardly, are trying to change, but all these efforts continue until their power bases are threatened.

For another example, if we compare Hayat Tahrir al-Sham with the Taliban, considering what we have seen in Syria in this short period of time, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is considered a “good” armed group by the countries of the world – known as, while the Taliban have proved that they are “evil” in their three years of actions. “Good” armed groups like Jolani go along with the world and give up ideology, even if only temporarily.

He is a pragmatist and knows that the world is not going his way, and that he must submit to the ruling order of the world. Therefore, “good” armed groups are better than “bad” armed groups who never want to give up their ideological selfishness and be ready for compromise and reconciliation.

The existence of the worst, such as ISIS, makes the others ‘better’.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey