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Trump visit to Saudi Arabia could feature $100 billion arms deal

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The US is preparing to announce a major arms sales package exceeding $100 billion during Donald Trump’s planned visit to Saudi Arabia in May. This expected visit could serve as the platform for Washington to unveil a comprehensive arms sales package for Riyadh. Six sources familiar with the matter, who spoke to Reuters, indicated that the announcement of the proposal is scheduled to coincide with this trip.

The proposed deal reportedly follows the Biden administration’s unsuccessful attempt to forge defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia as part of a broader agreement aimed at normalizing Saudi-Israeli relations. The Biden administration had offered Saudi Arabia access to more advanced American weaponry in exchange for halting arms purchases from China and limiting Chinese investments. It remains unclear whether the Trump administration’s new proposal includes similar conditions.

During his first term, Trump characterized arms sales to Saudi Arabia as a strategic benefit for the US economy and job creation. The new proposal is said to include advanced defense equipment such as Lockheed Martin’s C-130 transport aircraft, missile systems, and radar systems. Major American defense contractors, including RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and General Atomics, are also expected to be part of the package.

Reuters was unable to confirm precisely how much of the proposed deals are new. However, two sources noted that some of these agreements have been under discussion for a considerable time. For instance, Saudi Arabia reportedly first expressed interest in General Atomics’ unmanned aerial vehicles in 2018. According to one source, a $20 billion deal involving General Atomics’ MQ-9B SeaGuardian UAVs and other aircraft has gained prominence over the past 12 months.

US arms sales to Saudi Arabia are not a recent development. In 2017, Trump proposed a $110 billion package. However, following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in 2018, Congress largely opposed these agreements. The Biden administration, in 2021, suspended the sale of offensive weapons due to both the Khashoggi murder and civilian casualties in Yemen.

Nevertheless, the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to a shift in the US approach towards Saudi Arabia. By 2024, the suspension was lifted, and Washington began pursuing closer cooperation with Saudi Arabia on the future of Gaza after the October 7 Hamas attack.

Three separate sources suggested that Lockheed Martin-produced F-35 fighter jets, which Saudi Arabia has long been interested in, might also be discussed during the visit. However, these same sources emphasized that the signing of a direct F-35 deal during this specific visit is considered unlikely.

The US maintains its “Qualitative Military Edge” (QME) policy, which ensures that Israel receives more advanced American weapons than Arab nations. Israel has operated F-35 jets for nine years and has established numerous squadrons during this period.

Middle East

US proposes $30 billion deal to Iran for halting uranium enrichment

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The administration of US President Donald Trump is reportedly discussing the possibility of providing Iran with up to $30 billion in financial access to develop its peaceful nuclear program as part of efforts to return to negotiations with Tehran.

According to a CNN report citing sources familiar with the matter, this offer requires Tehran to completely halt uranium enrichment, a condition emphasized as “non-negotiable.”

Under the proposed plan, the funds would not be provided by the US but by Arab nations. An administration official stated, “The US is ready to lead these negotiations. Someone will have to pay for the implementation of the nuclear program, but we will not make such a commitment.”

Other proposals on the table

American officials have indicated that other offers are also being considered. These include the potential lifting of some sanctions against Iran and granting Tehran access to $6 billion of its frozen assets in foreign banks.

Another idea involves US allies in the Persian Gulf covering the cost of building new infrastructure to replace the Fordow nuclear facility, which was damaged in US attacks. This new facility would also lack uranium enrichment capabilities.

Washington’s “comprehensive peace” initiative

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Special Representative for the Middle East, told CNBC that the US aims to achieve a “comprehensive peace agreement.”

A White House statement emphasized that all proposals are designed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Following the events of the past two weeks, which include mutual attacks with Israel and a US strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, the White House hopes Tehran will accept Washington’s terms.

Experts are skeptical, fearing the offer could backfire

Conversely, Iran experts cited by CNN believe these events will further convince the country’s leadership of the necessity of possessing nuclear weapons.

Earlier this week, the Iranian parliament approved the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Even before the US attack on the night of June 22, the Iranian government had already significantly restricted agency officials’ access to its facilities.

According to IAEA data from mid-May, Iran possessed approximately 409 kilograms of highly enriched uranium.

Bloomberg reported that this amount is theoretically sufficient to produce ten nuclear warheads. The agency’s Director General, Rafael Grossi, stated that the location of this material is unknown.

While Tehran claims it moved its uranium stockpiles from the attacked facilities beforehand, the IAEA assesses that a significant portion of the stocks may have survived the strike.

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Middle East

US intelligence contradicts Trump’s claim of destroying Iran’s nuclear program

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According to a classified military intelligence report obtained by CNN and the New York Times (NYT), US attacks on Iran’s three major uranium enrichment facilities did not eliminate the main components of Tehran’s nuclear program but only set it back by several months.

American officials who reviewed the report stated that the document, which includes a preliminary assessment of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran and the subsequent American attack, contradicts President Donald Trump’s declaration that the program was “completely destroyed.”

The report, prepared by the Pentagon, emphasized that the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities was largely limited to the destruction of above-ground structures. It was determined that while the entrances to two underground facilities were filled with debris, the bunkers themselves remained intact.

Furthermore, it was reported that enriched uranium stockpiles might have been moved from the facilities before the attacks and that the centrifuges were “largely undamaged.” The report also noted that the US managed to damage the power grid of the nuclear facility built into a mountain at Fordo, but the facility itself did not sustain serious damage.

Timeline for a nuclear bomb extended

Before the military operation, US intelligence agencies estimated it would take Tehran at least three months to hastily produce a low-yield, primitive nuclear weapon. According to the NYT, military intelligence now predicts this timeline will extend to about six months.

The Times of Israel reported that Israeli intelligence also believes the US and Israeli attacks did not completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program, only setting it back “several years.”

Professor Jeffrey Lewis, an arms expert from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, concurred with the US military intelligence assessment. According to Lewis, Iran could quickly rebuild its nuclear program using uranium stockpiles in the intact underground bunkers. The expert suggested that, in this scenario, it could take Iran five months to produce a nuclear bomb.

White House reacts strongly to leak

President Donald Trump had previously announced that the American attacks had resulted in the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, however, described the intelligence assessment cited by CNN and the NYT as “false.” Leavitt stated the document was classified and had been leaked to the press by a “low-ranking, unidentified loser.”

In a statement on the social media platform X, Leavitt remarked, “The leak of this so-called assessment is a blatant attempt to humiliate President Trump and discredit the brave fighter pilots who carried out a flawless mission to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Everyone knows what happens when fourteen 30,000-pound bombs are precisely dropped on their targets: Total destruction.”

Trump also accused CNN and the NYT of collaborating to downplay one of the most successful military attacks in history. On his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump wrote, “The nuclear facilities in Iran have been completely destroyed!”

According to the NYT, the publication of the intelligence findings overshadowed President Trump’s victory at the NATO summit. The fact that the report was prepared by the Pentagon, which personally carried out the attacks, further underscored the situation’s significance.

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Asia

US cries to China as Washington begins airstrikes in Iran

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While the Middle East is going through one of its most tense periods, the world has been shocked by the news of a direct attack by the United States on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Washington has announced that Iran’s nuclear facilities no longer exist. At the same time, Tehran has warned in a strong tone that it will respond to this aggression.

This action was immediately met with widespread regional and international reactions. The United Nations, the European Union, global powers such as Russia and China, and America’s traditional allies in the West each took their own stance.

At an emergency meeting of the United Nations, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the move as a dangerous turn in an already crisis-ridden region. A wave of criticism has also emerged within the United States, with some describing the attack as successful.

At the same time, a number of lawmakers from both the Republican and Democratic parties consider Trump’s action to be without congressional authorization and unconstitutional.

Some reactions:

Russian envoy: US attack carried out without any provocation from Iran.

US Representative: The Iranian regime should not have nuclear weapons.

Iran’s ambassador to the Security Council: America once again sacrificed its security for Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israeli Ambassador to the Security Council: America changed the course of history by attacking Iran.

Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency: Military attacks should not be carried out on nuclear facilities, saying he is ready to immediately travel to all countries regarding this case.

UK UN envoy: Military action alone cannot address concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, saying his country was not involved in Iran attack, referred to concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and said that military action alone cannot permanently address concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. He called on Iran to exercise restraint and urged the parties involved to return to the negotiating table.

France: Now is the time to end the attacks and return to negotiations.

But now why US cries to China for help to reopen Strait of Hormuz

Soon after a US airstrike in three locations, Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes. Now this move puts the US in trouble and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz.

However, it seems that the US is too late and according to Iran’s state-run Press TV, the decision was made by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

The US understands that any disruption on the supply of oil would have profound consequences for the economy and wants to play an emotional card with China to convince Iran to reopen the route as Beijing is also one of the largest buyers of Iranian oil.

It is reported that 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and major oil and gas producing countries in the Middle East use this route to export energy.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has said that regime change is inevitable if the Islamic Republic cannot “make Iran great again.” His statement came following US military strikes on Iranian military facilities.

Iran: Game is not over even assuming the complete destruction of the nuclear sites

Ali Shamkhani, advisor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the religious leader of Iran, has said in response to the US attacks that even assuming the complete destruction of the nuclear sites, the “game is not over”.

“Even assuming the complete destruction of the sites, the game is not over; because the enriched materials, indigenous knowledge, and political will remain intact,” he said.

He noted that “now the political and operational initiative with the right to self-defense is in the hands of the side that knows how to play smart and avoids blind shooting.”

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