As Donald Trump begins his second term in the Oval Office, the US share of global cross-border investment projects has risen to a record high.
The figures for greenfield projects, where companies build or expand new plants and operations in a foreign country, were released as political and business leaders gathered in Davos to discuss how a Trump presidency could reshape the global economic order through higher tariffs and remanufacturing.
The proportion of new foreign direct investment (FDI) projects announced in the US rose from 11.6% in 2023 to 14.3% in the 12 months ending November 2024, according to a Financial Times (FT) analysis of data collected by fDI Markets, a company that has tracked cross-border investment since 2003.
Economists attribute this increase to buoyant consumer demand and government incentives in the world’s largest economy.
Germany and China decline while project arrivals to the US increase
The US attracted over 2,100 new FDI projects in the 12 months ending November 2024. In contrast, China signed fewer than 400 projects during the same period, approaching a historic low and well below the over 1,000 investments it received annually during the decade leading to the mid-2010s.
New projects in Germany fell to 470 in the same timeframe, marking the lowest figure in 18 years for Europe’s largest economy. This represents a sharp decline from the 1,100 greenfield investments recorded a year earlier.
According to fDi, the estimated value of new greenfield direct investment projects announced in the US during this period rose by over $100 billion to $227 billion.
Most investment in the real estate sector
The data, derived from corporate project announcements, press reports, and estimates of FDI over the life of the projects rather than annual capital expenditure, indicate significant growth in greenfield investments across various US sectors.
Record 12-month project totals were observed in the semiconductors, industrial equipment, construction, electronic components, renewable energy, and aerospace industries, many of which benefited from the support of the CHIPS Act.
While foreign investors were drawn to multiple sectors, real estate emerged as the most popular, followed by software and IT, industrial equipment, and business services.
62% of foreign investments in the US came from Western Europe
IMF figures released last week indicate that the US economy is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, outpacing the 1% growth forecast for the Eurozone.
Western Europe accounted for 62% of FDI projects in the US in the 12 months ending November 2024, up from 58% in the decade leading to 2019.
In contrast to the rise in inward FDI, the number of US overseas projects fell to 2,600 during the same period, the lowest level in two decades, excluding the pandemic peak. Experts suggest that the Biden administration’s industrial policies have encouraged companies to retain production domestically.
Is American ‘protectionism’ working?
“The US is attracting more and more global investment projects, reflecting a strong demand outlook and much stronger productivity growth compared to other countries,” said Innes McFee, global economist at Oxford Economics.
While McFee acknowledged the uncertainties posed by Trump-era policies, he added that a looser budget would boost demand and increase incentives to invest in the US in the short term. Protectionist policies could amplify this effect.
Nathan Sheets, chief economist at US bank Citi, highlighted America’s importance as a hub for artificial intelligence innovation, low energy costs, and the Biden administration’s investment incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the CHIPS Act.
Sheets noted that China’s declining share of FDI stems from geopolitical factors and Western attempts to “de-risk” reliance on China. Rising energy costs in Europe due to the Ukraine war, which began in February 2022, have further bolstered the appeal of the US’s cheaper energy landscape to investors.
Trump will address the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday via video link. The president did not immediately raise import duties in his inauguration-day decrees.