Connect with us

Middle East

Former CIA analyst warns US-Israel ‘miscalculation’ in Iran has triggered global economic chokehold

Published

on

In an expansive and sobering assessment of the escalating conflict in Southwest Asia, Larry Johnson, a former CIA intelligence analyst and veteran counter-terrorism official, has characterized the joint US-Israeli offensive against Iran as a catastrophic strategic miscalculation. Speaking with Professor Hasan Ünal on the Strategic Compass program, Johnson argued that Washington and West Jerusalem have fundamentally misinterpreted Iranian internal stability and military resilience, precipitating a global economic crisis that now threatens to plunge the West into a prolonged depression.

The discourse, occurring in the wake of what Johnson termed a “murderous attack” on February 28, centers on the assassination of Iranian leadership and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict enters its 14th day, Johnson warns that the geopolitical architecture of the region is being irreversibly dismantled, with Türkiye potentially occupying a precarious position on the “next on the list” of targets for Israeli subversion.

“A complete miscalculation on the part of the United States and Israel”

Opening the mülakat, Professor Ünal framed the current hostilities as “straightforward naked aggression” by the US and Israel, noting that the theater of war appears to be deviating significantly from the aggressors’ original blueprints. Johnson concurred, noting that the intelligence community in Washington fell victim to its own manufactured narratives.

“They underestimated the military capability of Iran,” Johnson stated, adding that the Pentagon and the Mossad “overestimated their own ability to try to destroy the leadership in Iran.” He revealed that US planners labored under the “false belief” that the elimination of the Supreme Leader and high-ranking IRGC officials would trigger a popular uprising. This assumption, according to Johnson, was based on flawed polling data funded by the CIA through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and USAID.

“They had funded a series of public opinion polls done over the Internet that claimed that 80% of the Iranian population were opposed, violently opposed to the Islamic Republic,” Johnson explained. “Well, it turned out that was a lie.” He cited counter-polling from the University of Maryland, conducted via traditional telephonic methods, which indicated that the regime maintained roughly 70% support. “There is no language to justify what was done other than it was an act of treachery, it was a barbarous act,” Johnson asserted, comparing the current US-Israeli conduct to the war of aggression for which the Nazis were tried at Nuremberg.

“Do the Turks realize you’re next on the list?”

A significant portion of the conversation focused on the implications for Ankara. Despite the “barking dog seldom bites” proverb cited by Professor Ünal to describe Turkish perceptions of Israeli rhetoric, Johnson issued a stark warning. He suggested that if Israel survives its current confrontation with Tehran, it will pivot its “vicious, out of control” state apparatus toward senior Turkish leadership.

“Israel is the most vicious, out of control state political organization in the world,” Johnson remarked. “There is no other country that has so wantonly and regularly attacks and kills others, in particular murdering civilians in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iran, in Yemen.” He dismissed the notion of Türkiye being able to remain insulated from the chaos, arguing that the Israeli state views Türkiye as a strategic obstacle to be subverted rather than a partner to be respected.

Johnson noted that the US has long used Türkiye for its own purposes without regard for Ankara’s long-term interests. “Türkiye is somebody to be used for our purposes,” he said, reflecting the prevailing view in Washington. He cautioned that any Turkish cooperation in “crushing” Iran would not be met with Israeli gratitude, but with further subversion. “They’re going to subvert you, they’re going to destroy you, they’re going to get rid of you,” he warned, characterizing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s attempts to manage the Israelis as “foolish.”

“Donald Trump is under the control of the Zionists”

Addressing the domestic political drivers in the US, Johnson reiterated his controversial stance that the American government remains “under occupation” by the Israeli lobby. He pointed to the frequent visits by Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington—seven since Donald Trump took office—as evidence of the administrative hierarchy being given “instructions.”

“Donald Trump is under the control of the Zionists, as are many members of the US Congress,” Johnson claimed. He argued that for 46 years, the US and Israel have propagated the “absolute false” claim that Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. Drawing on his experience at the Bureau of Counterterrorism and data from the CIA and the National Counterterrorism Center, Johnson argued that the primary drivers of international terrorism over the last quarter-century have been Sunni jihadist elements, specifically Takfiri and Wahhabi groups often linked to Saudi billionaires, rather than Tehran.

“Iran is absolutely not the number one sponsor of terrorism, not even anywhere close,” Johnson said. He highlighted Iran’s historical restraint, noting that during the eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s, Tehran refused to retaliate with chemical weapons despite being targeted by Iraqi gas provided by the US. He credited this to the “spiritual guidance” of the leadership which viewed such weapons as “a sin against Allah.”

“Grabbed the world economy by the throat and is choking it”

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has transformed the military conflict into a global economic siege. Johnson reported that even in the US, which is largely energy independent, the psychological and market effects are acute. He cited a 54% increase in gasoline prices at a Florida station within a single week as a harbinger of things to come.

However, Johnson identified a more “dangerous cut off” than petroleum: the supply of urea and nitrogen for fertilizer. “People can live without gasoline. You can walk instead of drive your car… but no fertilizer, no food,” he said. “Famine, starvation is now a definite possibility six to seven months from now.” He predicted that oil could reach $200 a barrel before a collapse in demand triggers a global depression.

Iran’s strategic leverage, Johnson argued, is now absolute. “Iran’s not going to let go of its chokehold. Why should it?” he asked, noting that Tehran is now in a position to demand reparations, the total lifting of sanctions, and ironclad security guarantees that it will never again be attacked by the US or Israel.

“Iran’s military and defense sites are built into mountains… basically impervious to Western missiles”

On the tactical front, the war has exposed the limits of both Western and Eastern technology. Johnson noted that while a Chinese-provided air defense radar system reportedly failed in a combat environment, the Iranian military has successfully downed sophisticated US MQ-9 Reaper and Israeli Hermes drones.

He clarified that while the US JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) has inflicted damage on Iranian infrastructure, it has failed to disarm the nation. “Iran is three times the size of Ukraine,” Johnson reminded the audience. He noted that unlike Israel, which has 55% of its population concentrated in just two cities—Haifa and Tel Aviv—Iran is vast, with its critical assets buried deep underground.

“Iran doesn’t have to target a hundred different places… it only has to worry about two places, Haifa and Tel Aviv,” Johnson said. He revealed that at least one US base in the Persian Gulf has completely “run out of air defense cover,” leaving personnel vulnerable. “Iranian missiles can penetrate and hit them at will.”

“Russia is in a position… the world now needs it and needs it desperately”

The primary beneficiary of this regional implosion, according to Johnson, is Moscow. With the Persian Gulf neutralized, Russia remains the only global power with ample supplies of oil, liquid natural gas, and fertilizer. “Russia is in a position… the world now needs it and needs it desperately, and I’m sure Russia will take advantage of that,” he said.

In his concluding remarks, Johnson emphasized that the era of US hegemony in the Middle East—characterized by “milking” Gulf Arab states for decades under the guise of protection—has ended. The failure to stop Iranian missile barrages and the inability to protect Israel’s “multi-layered” air defense system from Hezbollah’s four-hour saturating strikes have shattered the perception of US invincibility.

“The United States is Goliath,” Johnson concluded. “And now Iran, like David, has hit the United States right between the eyes with the stone and the United States has collapsed.”

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Middle East

Israeli court blocks Ben-Gvir plan to place crocodiles in prison moats

Published

3 days ago

on

04/08/2026

By

The Jerusalem District Court has temporarily halted a plan spearheaded by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to construct crocodile-filled moats around prisons housing thousands of Palestinian detainees.

According to Israeli public broadcaster KAN, the ruling follows a petition filed by the animal rights organization Let the Animals Live against Environmental Protection Minister Idit Silman, Ben-Gvir, and the Israeli Prison Service (IPS). The group argued that the project would lead to the mistreatment of the crocodiles and place prison staff in danger.

In a decision announced Sunday, Judge Avraham Rubin stated: “The claims regarding potential harm to the crocodiles warrant examination and justify issuing an order prohibiting the transfer of the animals or the execution of any actions related to locating and preparing them for transfer.”

Neither the petition submitted by the animal rights organization nor the text of Judge Rubin’s ruling made reference to the condition or life-threatening conditions faced by Palestinian prisoners subjected to torture and sexual assault in facilities under Ben-Gvir’s authority.

Noting that the temporary injunction will remain in effect until further notice, the judge granted Silman, Ben-Gvir, and the Israeli Prison Service until Wednesday to submit their defense arguments.

Status of Nile crocodiles was altered

The Israeli government laid the legal groundwork for the project in July when Environmental Protection Minister Silman altered the conservation status of Nile crocodiles. Reclassified out of the protected wild animal category, the reptiles were reassigned to the classification of wild animals “raised in a controlled environment” or “held under management.”

This regulatory shift granted the Israeli Prison Service authority to keep crocodiles around prison perimeters, provided they comply with rules established by the Nature and Parks Authority. Prior to the modification, Nile crocodiles could only be housed in zoos. In its petition, Let the Animals Live also requested the revocation of this status change.

Ben-Gvir had proposed placing crocodiles in water channels encircling prisons under the pretext of preventing Palestinian detainees from escaping. The Israeli minister stated that in formulating his plan, he drew inspiration from an immigrant detention center in the US state of Florida known as “Alligator Alcatraz.”

In December, Minister Ben-Gvir published an AI-generated image on his social media account depicting himself holding a crocodile on a leash, accompanied by the caption: “Cursed terrorist, thinking of escaping? Think again.”

Israeli officials defended the proposal, contending that the crocodiles would enhance security measures and lower prison operational costs by reducing the requirement for patrolling personnel. The project was slated for implementation at the Ketziot Prison in the Negev Desert, where authorities had already initiated excavation work on a section of the moat.

9,600 Palestinians held in prisons

Since taking office in December 2022 as part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, Ben-Gvir has signed off on measures that significantly harshened the detention conditions of Palestinian prisoners. Ben-Gvir has also visited prisons and engaged in humiliating conduct toward detainees.

According to data from the Palestinian Commission of Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs, approximately 9,600 Palestinians, including women and children, are currently held in Israeli prisons. Thousands of these individuals are detained under “administrative detention” without formal charges or trial.

The commission recorded that 89 Palestinian prisoners have died in Israeli custody since the onset of attacks on Gaza in 2023. The fate of dozens of individuals detained from Gaza remains unknown.

In 2024, a Palestinian prisoner was gang-raped by five soldiers at the Sde Teiman detention center, one of the facilities where Palestinians are held. After footage of the incident surfaced, Jewish settlers attempting to support the detained soldiers stormed the facility. Earlier this year, a court dropped the charges against the soldiers.

Israeli human rights organization B’Tselem has documented that prison guards, soldiers, and Shin Bet officers have subjected Palestinian detainees to rape, forced insertion of objects into the anus, beatings to the genitals, starvation, electric shocks, and the withholding of medical treatment.

Continue Reading

Middle East

Iran to receive hundreds of Chinese shoulder-fired missiles within weeks, sources say

Published

1 week ago

on

29/07/2026

By

Iran is expected to receive its first shipment of 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense missile systems within weeks as it seeks to rebuild its air defenses amid an ongoing war with the US.

Three sources with knowledge of the agreement disclosed the information to Reuters.

Valued at between $60 million and $70 million, the purchase represents one of Tehran’s largest known efforts to bolster its short-range air defense capabilities since the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel.

According to the sources, the contract covers between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles.

The deal was signed with Hong Kong-based Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, which reportedly acted as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet responded to a request for comment from Reuters regarding the information provided by the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following statement:

“The relevant reports are completely baseless. China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and bringing an end to the conflict.”

Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, the parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent on Tuesday.

Iran needs to rearm following months of conflict during which the US and Israel struck facilities tied to its missile, drone, and air defense programs. Tehran responded to those attacks with salvos of ballistic missiles and drones.

The fighting demonstrated the difficulty of defending static military and strategic installations against advanced fighter jets and precision-guided munitions.

Washington abruptly halted its two-week bombing campaign on Saturday. However, US President Donald Trump said attacks would resume if negotiations aimed at ending the five-month war—which has theoretically been under a ceasefire since April—fail.

The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS systems would significantly expand Iran’s inventory of short-range air defense weapons.

However, the sources cautioned that while the agreement has been signed, the delivery schedule, quantities, and other operational details remain subject to change.

Under the plan agreed upon by the parties, initial deliveries will be transported by air from the western Chinese city of Urumqi before being routed through Pakistan to Iran. The sources did not clarify whether transport following the transit through Pakistan would occur by air or land.

The Pakistani military’s public relations wing, ISPR, said in a statement:

“Allegations that Pakistan is playing a role in the supply of air defense weapons from China to Iran are completely fabricated and contrary to fact.”

Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran is also exploring the option of using overland routes to transport Chinese-made military equipment and dual-use components more covertly, reducing the risk of shipments being intercepted.

The procurement process underscores how the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to rely on a combination of domestic arms production and foreign suppliers, despite years of sanctions and defense import restrictions.

Reuters previously reported, citing individuals familiar with the discussions, that Iran was close to concluding a separate deal to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles from China. Reuters was unable to confirm whether that agreement was finalized.

Continue Reading

Middle East

Saudi crude exports from Yanbu plunge 40% as Yemeni strikes force reliance on costlier routes

Published

1 week ago

on

28/07/2026

By

Crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast have dropped by 40% over the past few days.

According to data published on July 26 by maritime intelligence firm Vortexa, the Riyadh administration has begun utilizing the SUMED pipeline in Egypt and alternative transit routes in an effort to bypass the naval blockade declared by forces aligned with Sanaa.

The sharp decline in shipment volumes follows retaliatory operations and the enforcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia by the Yemeni Armed Forces, operating under the Ansarallah movement.

Riyadh has maintained military strikes and blockade measures against Yemen for nearly 12 years.

A Sunday report by maritime intelligence firm Windward, drawing on Vortexa data, noted that Saudi Arabia has established a new logistical framework to maintain its export flows. “Saudi Arabia has created an alternative export route functioning via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope,” the report stated. The agency reported that this shift has driven up transportation costs by approximately $9 per barrel.

The market analysis report provided the following assessment regarding the operational mechanics of the transition:

“Saudi crude shipments have not stopped; they have been split into two distinct routes. Tankers berthing at Yanbu Port are now operating with their AIS signals completely turned off. Vessels are concealing their locations to avoid inclusion on Ansarallah’s target list. Saudi Arabia has established an alternative export route operating via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope. Although this route increases costs and transit times, it demonstrates that the market is capable of adapting to changing conditions.”

Saudi Arabia previously activated a similar alternative route via Yanbu during the initial phase of the US-Israel war, following Iran’s first blockade measures directed at the Strait of Hormuz.

At the time of the Windward report’s release, satellite imagery published by SoarAtlas revealed the ongoing situation at Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Oil Refinery. Massive fires triggered by attacks carried out by the Yemeni Armed Forces were shown to be persisting at the $12 billion facility. Images captured on Saturday documented dense black smoke continuing to billow from a giant oil storage tank at the site.

The Yemeni Armed Forces publicly announced their latest military operations against Saudi Arabia on July 25. They stated that the strikes were executed in response to the Saudi-led coalition resuming aerial bombardments against the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.

An official statement issued by the Yemeni military under the Ansarallah-led administration provided the following details:

“In response to this overt and criminal aggression, the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out two specialized military operations. In the first operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan were targeted with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. In the second operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu were struck using ballistic and cruise missiles alongside unmanned aerial vehicles.”

Spokespersons for the Yemeni military emphasized that the strikes were “precise” and “direct,” while residents in the city of Yanbu were reported to have heard explosions over the weekend. In the early hours of Saturday, Saudi airstrikes had targeted fuel storage facilities and telecommunications infrastructure in Hodeidah.

Mahdi al-Mashat, President of the Ansarallah Supreme Political Council, issued a warning to the Saudi Arabian leadership in a statement on July 27. “We say to the Saudi enemy that those offering you false hopes will be of no avail. Anything short of an end to the aggression and the complete lifting of the blockade is mere fantasy,” al-Mashat said.

In line with their naval blockade decision, the Yemeni Armed Forces have also targeted two Saudi oil tankers with missiles in recent days. The Sanaa administration officially initiated its maritime restrictions on July 20 under the stated principle of “a blockade for a blockade.”

This latest phase of heightened tension began in early July when Saudi Arabia launched an airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport for the first time after a prolonged hiatus. Yemeni forces responded by striking Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. The attack marked the Yemeni military’s first direct retaliatory strike inside Saudi territory since 2021.

The Saudi-led coalition initially intervened in Yemen in 2015 after Ansarallah took control of the capital, Sanaa, and ousted the Riyadh-backed government. The United Arab Emirates joined as a principal coalition partner, while the UK, the US, and Israel provided logistical support.

During peace negotiations conducted between Saudi Arabia and Yemen in 2023, the parties came close to a final agreement before talks stalled. Nevertheless, those contacts effectively served to freeze large-scale combat operations for an extended period.

The air and sea blockade enforced by Saudi Arabia for over a decade has deepened the humanitarian crisis, particularly due to commercial flight restrictions imposed on Sanaa International Airport. These measures have prevented critically ill and injured civilians from traveling abroad for medical treatment, while the coalition’s military intervention has driven widespread famine and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Prior to Riyadh’s latest airstrikes, Yemeni forces had been conducting a general mobilization aimed at expelling coalition elements from the country.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey