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AI and data center power demands spark a gas renaissance in North America

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The rapid development of artificial intelligence and the swift expansion in both the number and capacity of data centers are driving a surge in electricity demand, triggering a “renaissance” in the North American natural gas market.

According to data reported by Bloomberg, the escalating demand for electrical power is pushing interest in natural gas back to peak levels.

Brandon Freiman, a partner at the leading alternative asset management firm KKR & Co., stated that the energy sector has transitioned into a new growth cycle after years of stagnant demand.

Freiman emphasized that artificial intelligence has emerged as one of the most prominent factors driving this growth.

Speaking at the Sohn Montreal Investment Conference, Freiman pointed out that investing in the energy sector has become “one of the most tangible ways to bet on AI.”

Freiman noted that investors no longer need to choose between model developers or chip manufacturers, as there is a direct and fundamental need for the energy capacity required to run computing centers.

He reported that the construction costs for new gas-fired power plants have tripled, rising from $1,000 to $3,000 per kilowatt. This capital spike has made speculative construction impossible, Freiman added, shifting projects toward a foundation of long-term planning.

Robert Horn, Global Head of Infrastructure at Blackstone Credit and Insurance, stated that the vast majority of new gas power plant projects are backed by long-term contracts with utility companies, industrial consumers, and technology giants such as Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Google parent Alphabet Inc.

Horn noted that this arrangement provides “predictable revenue” before construction even begins.

The report noted that due to high capital intensity, market focus has shifted from public to private markets. Large infrastructure investors are expected to finance projects secured by guaranteed demand.

Bloomberg had previously reported on June 1 that the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market could soon face oversupply and low prices.

The completion of a “third wave” of production capacity expansions between 2026 and 2030 was cited as a major factor in this projected trend.

The agency also reported that while the threat of closure at the Strait of Hormuz temporarily supported the market, the market would adjust if peace talks between Washington and Tehran after July proved successful, triggering a long-term decline in LNG prices.

On February 28, following the start of a military operation by the US and Israel against Iran, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil supply and nearly 30% of liquefied natural gas pass.

In reaction to the failure of negotiations in Islamabad, US President Donald Trump announced a blockade of Iranian ports on April 13 to halt Iranian oil exports. In late May, Trump announced the lifting of the blockade within the framework of a peace agreement being drafted with Tehran.

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Oil industry lobbies White House to avert potential Trump export ban

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Oil industry executives and White House officials are engaging in a new push to prevent any move by the administration to restrict US oil exports.

According to a report by Politico, industry representatives say these efforts extend to the White House Domestic Policy Council, the National Energy Dominance Council, the Department of Energy, and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.

Trump believes that oil prices could harm the Republicans’ chances of maintaining control of Congress in the November mid-term elections.

“Everyone from the industry and within the administration is working hand in hand to prevent this,” an energy industry executive said.

The individual added that White House officials had not formally raised the idea, “but everyone knows Trump will act like Trump again.”

The White House maintains that export restrictions are not on the agenda.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement: “While the President and the entire energy team are taking various measures to mitigate temporary disruptions in the energy market, the administration has been very clear: there is no plan to impose restrictions on oil and gas exports.”

White House representatives did not confirm whether industry lobbyists had approached specific agencies or officials to discuss the export issue. Department of Energy representatives did not respond to queries.

However, although administration officials have guaranteed since the early days of the Iranian war that an export ban was off the table, Trump’s directive to the Department of Justice in June to investigate oil companies on charges of price gouging put the sector on high alert.

Concerns within the industry mounted after Trump stated on Monday that oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron were making “too much money.”

Industry executives now fear Trump may try to make a move against them by restricting fuel export activities abroad, which have boomed since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Another industry official said the sector had reiterated its concerns regarding export controls to the White House “very recently.”

The Trump administration has already tried several different approaches to lower prices that enjoy broader support from the oil industry.

These include the release of millions of barrels of oil from the country’s strategic petroleum reserve and the temporary suspension of the Jones Act to make it easier for non-American vessels to transport oil and natural gas between US ports.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a former oil company CEO, and Vice President JD Vance have repeatedly opposed the idea of limiting or banning exports.

Wright stated in May that the administration had “definitely” ruled out the option of banning diesel exports.

Mike Sommers, president of the American Petroleum Institute, said he was “confident” Trump understood the need to maintain oil exports, recalling that early in the crisis, the president had encouraged other countries to buy American oil:

“The administration has repeatedly expressed that they are opposed to [export controls]. Therefore, I do not think there is any change in their stance at the moment. Frankly, it feels as though we have to clarify this issue every three weeks.”

In a note sent to clients on Tuesday, consultancy firm ClearView Energy stated that the moment for the White House to take a step toward limiting fuel exports “might be approaching.”

The firm noted that former President Joe Biden had considered imposing export restrictions ahead of the 2022 mid-term elections following a “long summer of high petrol prices” caused by the war in Ukraine.

US crude oil exports increased by approximately 30% compared with last year, reaching nearly 3.5 million barrels per day by the end of July.

Shipments of refined products such as diesel, petrol, and other types of oil rose by 20%, exceeding 8 million barrels per day.

Opponents of exports argue that sending these cargoes abroad leads to rising prices domestically.

However, the oil and gas industry contends that closing the door to exports would harm the domestic market and cause their production to decline.

“Export bans may seem politically attractive, but ultimately they will lead to the exact opposite of the intended effect,” said a refining industry lobbyist who noted they were in contact with the White House on the matter, arguing that cutting off American exports from international markets would mean “a decline in US production, supply shortages, further upward pressure on domestic prices, and even greater disruptions in the global market.”

Chet Thompson, president and CEO of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, stated that export controls would force US refiners to produce less petrol because they would lose commercial channels to ship other surplus fuels, such as diesel, produced during the process.

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US and Ukraine restore intelligence sharing to former levels

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Three US senators have reported that intelligence sharing between Washington and Kyiv has reached its former level. The White House declined to disclose details of the current intelligence relationship, emphasizing that President Donald Trump remains focused on ending the conflict.

American senators reported that intelligence sharing between the US and Ukraine has returned to its previous level.

According to a report by Politico, the senators offering this assessment include Democratic Senator Mark Warner, a long-standing advocate for increasing aid to Ukraine.

Commenting on the matter, Warner said: “I don’t want to get into details, but things have improved.” Republican senators John Cornyn and Roger Wicker stated that information sharing has accelerated during a period of “strategic importance”.

Democratic Senator Tim Kaine also noted that he has observed signs of a revival in information sharing between the US and Ukraine.

The White House did not disclose details regarding the current state of its intelligence-sharing relationship with Ukraine. However, in comments to Politico, it emphasized that US President Donald Trump is focused on contributing to the termination of the conflict.

A White House official told Politico: “The President and his team remain committed to playing a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine and remain optimistic that we will ultimately reach a peace agreement.”

Last autumn, the Financial Times reported that Trump had issued instructions to prepare for sharing intelligence data that could assist Ukraine in conducting strikes deep inside Russian territory.

Russian authorities are demanding that Western nations cease providing military aid to Ukraine, emphasizing that such assistance will not prevent Moscow from achieving its military campaign objectives.

Last year, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs requested that the US side clarify information regarding the transfer of intelligence data to Ukraine.

According to statements from the Kremlin, Russia has long been aware that the US and NATO countries collect intelligence and transfer it to the Ukrainian military, noting that this is “not a new development”.

Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia will not tolerate attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will continue to respond forcefully.

In June, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is prepared to conduct negotiations with Ukraine on the basis of the agreements reached in Istanbul.

According to Putin, the parties must also take into account the agreements reached between Moscow and Washington in Anchorage, the situation on the front line, and the conditions for a settlement previously set out by Russia.

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Pentagon prepares new strategy focusing on tactical nuclear weapons

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The US Department of War (Pentagon) is preparing a new nuclear strategy that places special emphasis on the potential deployment of tactical and shorter-range nuclear weapons.

According to a report by NBC citing five informed sources familiar with the matter, the emerging strategy challenges a nuclear approach that has been regarded as unshakeable for decades.

The report asserted that the proposals presented by the department would not exclude any course of action for the US President. Instead, they aim to “expand decision space and thereby strengthen deterrence” by offering him realistic and credible options.

A Pentagon source said in a statement: “We believe we need credible options regarding the use of nuclear weapons.”

Work on the new strategy is being led by Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. The process is reportedly being conducted as part of the routine reviews typically carried out under each new presidential administration.

Colby, who has long advocated for an increased role for tactical weapons, contends that US adversaries believe Washington might actually use long-range nuclear weapons to destroy enemy nuclear forces, as envisaged in the current strategy.

The strategy proposed by Colby has raised concerns among some US lawmakers. Critics argue that this approach could make the use of nuclear weapons appear less threatening or lead to a decline in military readiness levels under specific scenarios.

Furthermore, some circles assess that the operational readiness of the US Armed Forces could be adversely affected as the focus of military training shifts toward the new strategy, which involves the use of shorter-range weapons.

Those expressing this view claim that in a potential catastrophic scenario, the US military would be less prepared for the process due to a lack of sufficient expertise in the use of nuclear weapons.

A US Congressional source, in an assessment provided to NBC, said: “It is hard to imagine another study that so directly contradicts the position stated by President Donald Trump that we need to make our nuclear deterrence system great again. He clearly wants to have more capabilities, not fewer. This study is a complete fiasco.”

Sources speaking to the network reported that Colby will present the work he is leading during an off-the-record military event in Nebraska, scheduled to take place during a visit to US Strategic Command, which oversees US nuclear forces.

The nuclear strategy of the US was last updated in 2024.

According to research from February 2026 by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), the US Department of War holds a stockpile of approximately 3,700 nuclear warheads designed for delivery by ballistic missiles and strategic bombers.

Jointly, Russia and the US control approximately 90% of the world’s total nuclear weapons stockpile. Russia’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to consist of more than 4,300 warheads.

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