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Support for Israel from the National Conservatism Conference

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Argentine President Javier Milei, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli and Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s Rassemblement National (RN) party, gathered in Madrid for an event organised by the right-wing VOX party, the third largest in the Spanish parliament, ahead of the European Parliament elections in June.

Former US President Donald Trump, represented at the event by Matt and Mercedes Schlapp, vice presidents of the conservative US think tank Heritage Foundation and former White House staffers, received a round of applause.

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which includes VOX and Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, presented most of its manifesto in the Spanish capital over the weekend as part of VOX’s “Europa VIVA 24” event.

Defending a “strong and sovereign Europe”, reducing Brussels bureaucracy, strengthening border security and reviewing the Green Deal are some of the ECR’s priorities ahead of the elections.

The Conservatives unofficially launched their campaign with strong messages against illegal immigration and the EU’s climate policy, while declaring their support for Israel in its war in Gaza.

Orbán, Le Pen and Meloni speak out

The presentation of the ECR’s manifesto and VOX’s programme for the EU political race attracted a lot of media attention. Javier Milei, a personal friend of VOX leader Santiago Abascal, and Le Pen were present in Madrid, while Meloni and Orbán joined the event via video conference.

In his video address, Meloni said: “We are on the eve of a decisive election (…). It is time to mobilise, it is time to take to the streets. It is time to raise the bar, we must fight until the last day,” Meloni said.

“Dear Spanish friends, we patriots must occupy Brussels,” Orbán said in his message.

Orbán described the campaign for the European elections as a “great common war” against Brussels, which he said was “unleashing mass illegal immigration” and “poisoning our children with sex propaganda”.

According to Orban, VOX politicians and activists are “dedicated fighters” who can help “make Europe great again”, in a reference to former US president Donald Trump’s campaign slogan “Make America Great Again”.

“Today there are many who want to change the direction of the European Union, and on 9 June there will be many more,” Le Pen said, arguing that VOX “represents the Spanish patriotic movement that can be counted on at the European level to revitalise Europe”.

Le Pen argued that if the European Commission “takes away the sovereignty of European nations forever”, the consequences for the future of the countries would be disastrous.

The French leader, who has made clear her desire to work with VOX in the European Parliament, accused current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her allies of wanting an EU “subjected to uniformity” and warned: “We are the defenders of Europe, they are the destroyers.”

Israeli Minister: We are defending Western civilisation against radical Islam

According to Haaretz, Chikli took the stage to rapturous applause from his front-row seat between Vox leader Abascal and Le Pen and spoke about 7 October, calling it “the rotten fruit of radical Islam”.

Referring to the families of Noa Argamani and Bibas, Israeli hostages still held in Gaza, and reading the transcript of a Hamas member’s phone call to his family in Gaza “celebrating how many Israelis he had killed”, Chikli said: “It takes a village to raise a child. But it also takes a village to raise rapists and murderers,” he said.

Chikli described Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as “a war we do not want, a war we have no choice but to fight and win for the sake of our children and the free world”.

The minister returned to the “global threat of radical Islam” several times during his 15-minute speech. At one point, Chikli said: “This war is not just about Gaza, or the state of Israel, or even the Middle East. It is an existential struggle for the future of Western civilisation against radical Islam,” he said, to which the congressional crowd “burst into applause”. He hit back.

The Israeli minister criticised Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez for supporting a Palestinian state, while praising Vox leader Abascal and thanking him for his visit to Israel in December.

Chikli said: “Unlike the others, you didn’t do it for a photo opportunity or to get out of line. Unlike others, your good heart led you to side with the State of Israel instead of Hamas and Iran. Thank you, Abascal, for standing on the side of truth,” he said.

Chikli then returned to the threat to Europe posed by what he called “reckless immigration policies”. He criticised “ghettos full of Islamic immigrants, which often become hotbeds of religious fanaticism” and called for a rejection of “multiculturalism”, which he described as “a complete failure that has brought this continent to the brink of existential danger”.

“The silent majority has spoken,” Chikli concluded, thanking the Spanish for using their “common sense” to give Israel the highest possible score in last week’s Eurovision Song Contest.

Likud-European right ties strengthen

As a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, Chikli has been attending events in Europe organised by right-wing parties described as ‘national conservatives’.

In December, Chikli met with Vox president Santiago Abascal, whom he described as “a man of truth who stands as a beacon of moral clarity in the twilight when moral relativism threatens to collapse Western civilisation”.

Last month, Chikli also attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Hungary, where he praised Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as a “supporter of Israel”.

Chikli spoke alongside Tom Van Grieken, the leader of Belgium’s Vlaams Belang party, which promotes the ‘Great Displacement’ theory, a prominent feature of the European right, which uses the term ‘omvolking’ (‘repopulation’) to refer to European migration, particularly from Muslim countries, and which is associated with the Nazis.

Earlier this year, Chikli also met with Sweden’s right-wing Sweden Democrats. The party, the second largest in the Swedish parliament, has a Nazi past and its members have been criticised in recent years for links to neo-Nazi movements. Israel has so far refrained from establishing official ties with the party, but the Sweden Democrats have declared themselves “the most pro-Israel party in Sweden”.

At a conference organised by the European Jewish Association in Krakow in January, Chikli said that his official capacity would not encourage him to ally himself with Diaspora Jews involved in international protests against Israel’s occupation of Gaza.

“I don’t consider a Jew who feels at home in a crowd shouting ‘From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free’ to be a Jew. I don’t want to build a bridge with him,” Chikli told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency.

Milei sparks diplomatic crisis

Argentine President Javier Milei received a standing ovation for his speech denouncing the “left” and defending free market capitalism.

On the other hand, he called for a “cultural war”, which is also necessary for a government “so that the policies implemented are permanent and that in the future there are citizens who defend their freedoms and do not allow themselves to be trampled by socialists who ‘even control football’ in their country (for example in North Korea or Cuba)”.

“Let’s go back to defending the values that made the West great: life, freedom and property,” Milei concluded.

After thanking Vox leader Santiago Abascal for his friendship “on Mother’s Day, when I was lonelier than Adam”, Milei said that socialism was “cursed and cancerous” and “invites death”, and sparked a diplomatic crisis when he called Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s wife “corrupt”.

In response to Milei’s harsh words, Spain recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires, María Jesús Alonso, for consultations.

On Sunday, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares demanded that Milei “publicly apologise” for his remarks, which he described as “extremely serious”. In the absence of an apology, he announced that Spain would take “appropriate measures” to protect its “sovereignty and dignity”.

Milei’s remarks “transcend all political and ideological differences” and are “unprecedented in the history of international relations, and even more so in the history of relations between two countries and two peoples united by strong fraternal ties”, the minister said.

The European Right is increasing its vote: ECR programme announced

The two groups hosting right-wing formations in the European Parliament are ECR, which includes VOX as well as Italy’s Brothers of Italy and Poland’s former ruling party Law and Justice (PiS), and Identity and Democracy (ID), home to the RN, Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Matteo Salvini’s League.

The latest Europe Elects projection for Euractiv shows that the ECR and ID will each win 83 MEPs. In the 2019 elections, the ID won 73 MEPs and the ECR 62.

Meloni is the current president of the ECR and the group’s vice-president is Spanish VOX MEP Hermann Tertsch.

In its election manifesto, the ECR expresses, among other things, its “firm commitment to the preservation of national identity, the security of citizens and the strengthening of borders”.

The ECR group also rejects the “unnecessary centralisation of power in Brussels” and proposes to reform the EU so that it “respects and protects the sovereignty and traditions of the member states”. It also calls for a “strong European defence”, increasing military assistance to Ukraine and increasing the defence budgets of all partners in line with NATO’s call for 2% of GDP.

The manifesto also states that the ECR calls for a “comprehensive migration strategy” to secure the EU’s borders, which would include initiatives such as granting asylum in Europe “only” to “genuine refugees”.

The ECR group also calls for an overhaul of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), arguing for a strengthening of the “farm to fork” strategy and a revision of the Green Deal to prioritise the “socio-economic well-being” of the sector.

EUROPE

U.S. sets up new ‘air defence base’ in Poland

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The United States inaugurated a new air defense base in northern Poland on Wednesday, marking a significant move in NATO’s defense strategy. Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that the base strengthens Poland’s security as a NATO member, especially as the war in Ukraine continues.

Located in Redzikowo, a town near the Baltic coast, the base has been in development since the early 2000s. Amid concerns following Donald Trump’s election, some NATO members are uneasy about future commitments. However, Polish officials emphasize that the consistent support of the base project across U.S. administrations underscores the enduring military alliance between Poland and the United States.

“The United States is the guarantor of Poland’s security,” Duda asserted, underscoring that the presence of U.S. troops highlights Poland’s sovereignty and reinforces that it is “not in Russia’s sphere of influence,” despite its historical ties as a socialist state until 1989.

On the other side, Kremlin officials described the base as an attempt to “contain Russia” by positioning American military infrastructure closer to Russian borders.

The Redzikowo base is a vital component of NATO’s Aegis Ashore missile defense shield, designed to intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Other key elements of this NATO defense shield include a base in Romania, U.S. Navy destroyers stationed at Rota, Spain, and an early warning radar located in Kürecik.

Russia has long viewed the base as a threat, initially opposing the project in 2007. NATO maintains that the shield is “purely defensive” and asserts that it’s not targeted at Russia.

According to military sources cited by Reuters, the Redzikowo system currently targets missiles from the Middle East. Redirecting the radar to intercept missiles from Russia would require a policy shift and complex procedural adjustments.

Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz recently called for expanding the defense shield, stating that Warsaw would discuss further plans with NATO and the United States.

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German think tank DGAP: Germany and Europe must build military strength in the Asia-Pacific region

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Germany’s leading foreign policy journal, Internationale Politik, calls for significant rearmament and militarization efforts to strengthen European influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to Internationale Politik, published by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), European nations should rapidly expand their armed forces and take control not only of their own continent but also, “if necessary, the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb,” to “reduce reliance on U.S. troops in Europe.”

If successful, the journal argues, the United States would retain adequate military capacity “in the event of a war in the Indo-Pacific.” In such a scenario, European nations should also prepare for a potential conflict with China and enhance their defense industrial capacity to replenish depleted U.S. munitions if required.

The ‘Asianization’ of security architecture

Calls for a stronger German and European military presence in the Asia-Pacific are driven by the intensifying power struggle between the West and China and the increasing inclination of Asian nations to pursue independent military policies rather than aligning with declining Western dominance.

Felix Heiduk, director of the Asia Research Group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), describes this trend as the “Asianization” of regional security architecture.

Indonesia exemplifies this shift. Since 2007, Indonesia has conducted regular military exercises with the United States, the latest spanning August 26 to September 6, 2024. However, Jakarta has also expanded ties with Russia. During a recent meeting with President Vladimir Putin, Indonesia’s current president and former defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, expressed that he sees Russia as a “great friend” and intends to strengthen relations with Moscow.

Last week, Russia and Indonesia held their first joint military exercises, which Jakarta considers a demonstration of its independent foreign and military policy.

The ‘Indo-Pacific’ as a Japanese-American concept and Germany’s role

The concept of the Indo-Pacific frequently underpins arguments for expanding military activities into the Asia-Pacific. In Internationale Politik, Heiduk clarifies that this term is “neither geographically neutral nor value-neutral” but rather “purely political.”

Heiduk explains that the concept of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”, which the U.S. adopted from Japan, aims to encircle China and maintain U.S. hegemony in Asia. He further notes that Germany is also entangled in this geopolitical struggle.

Heiduk points to Germany’s Asia-Pacific military deployments in 2021 and 2024, along with maneuvers involving German air and ground forces in Australia and other countries in the region. These actions align with Berlin’s official Indo-Pacific Strategy—a conflict framework Germany has adopted in alignment with the U.S. in its great power struggle with China.

Europe’s Need to Rebuild Its Land Armies

Max Bergmann, an expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, illustrates the pressure for greater militarization in the Asia-Pacific in a recent article for Internationale Politik.

Bergmann describes European nations as lacking “hard power,” noting that European armies have been underfunded for two decades and that rebuilding ground forces should be the priority. He argues that while Britain and France possess advanced weapons systems, including anti-submarine capabilities, their forces are “too thinly deployed.”

While Russia remains the immediate military priority for Europe, Bergmann sees a long-term role for European security in the Indo-Pacific.

Reducing the U.S. military rresence in Europe

The CSIS expert suggests six strategic steps Europe can take to reduce U.S. military presence.

The first step, according to Bergmann, is for Europe to focus on securing the continent, the Mediterranean, and, if needed, the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. This would allow the U.S. to concentrate fully on the Indo-Pacific if war broke out in the region.

Bergmann notes that in such a conflict, the U.S. could dedicate its full military production capacity to support Indo-Pacific logistics, but only if Europe is militarily fortified.

Beyond the ‘third way’ for Europe

Bergmann proposes additional diplomatic and security roles for European states. He advocates strengthening relations with countries like Vietnam, which have limited ties with the U.S. However, he emphasizes that Europe should not pursue a “Gaullist third way” between the U.S. and China since European interests align closely with U.S. strategic interests.

Finally, Bergmann recommends that European states establish stronger military-political and arms-industrial partnerships within the Asia-Pacific and, ultimately, bolster their own military presence in the region. The most effective way to achieve this, he suggests, would be to organize a European naval mission under the EU flag to coordinate all European naval activities in the Asia-Pacific.

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Green light from CDU for debt brake reform

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Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), announced on Wednesday that the constitutional debt brake, which limits public deficits to 0.35% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), could be open to reform under certain conditions.

Merz, the frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor after the collapse of the country’s “traffic light” coalition, has previously argued that Germany should adhere to the constitutionally guaranteed debt brake, a measure introduced by his party under Angela Merkel in 2009.

The debate over debt brake reform within the CDU was reignited this year by Berlin’s conservative mayor Kai Wegner. Several powerful CDU leaders from regional governments have also supported the reform push, as these states face more constraints than the federal government and lack the flexibility for new borrowing.

Merz: Revision possible if borrowing is for investment

Pressure is mounting within the party, with CDU state premiers urging Merz to include debt brake reform plans in the campaign for the early elections on 23 February.

Speaking at an event on Wednesday, Merz stated: “Of course, reform is possible. The question is: why? To what end? What would be the result of such a reform?”

Merz emphasized that he would not support reform aimed at increasing consumption or social policy spending. However, he suggested that if additional borrowing were used to increase investment, “then the answer could be different.”

According to the Greens, the only way out of the crisis is a revision of the debt brake

Merz noted that the debt brake was a “technical issue” and stated that he did not wish to engage in the discussion at that moment. Later, a source close to the CDU leader told Reuters that Merz had no immediate plans to reform the debt brake.

However, Bruno Hönel, a member of the Bundestag’s budget committee from the Greens, argued that if Merz assumed power, the debt brake would be reformed immediately, pointing out that the budget could not be financed without borrowing during such a crisis.

Hönel stated, “If you want to work with the budget in a forward-looking way, there is no other way than to reform the debt brake.” He also noted that 80 billion euros would be needed to meet NATO’s 2% defense spending target by 2028, nearly 30 billion euros more than the draft budget for 2025, which currently envisions defense spending of 53 billion euros.

Traffic light coalition collapses over debt brake debate

The debt brake was a key factor in the collapse of the coalition, leading to calls for early elections.

Christian Lindner, leader of the fiscally conservative Free Democrats (FDP), who was dismissed as finance minister last week by Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz, claimed that Scholz had pressured him to suspend the debt brake.

Suspending the debt brake in an emergency, citing special circumstances, is possible with a government majority. Germany reinstated the debt brake in 2024 after a four-year suspension to allow for extra spending on the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis.

CDU’s sister party CSU opposes reform

However, reforming the debt brake requires a two-thirds majority in both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat.

The CDU premiers from the eastern states support the debt brake reform, while Markus Söder, the leader of Bavaria’s CSU, opposes it. Söder emphasized that “absurd extra spending” must be cut first.

Before discussing the debt brake, Söder argued that the fiscal equality of federal states must be addressed, referring to Germany’s income redistribution system.

The wealthy state of Bavaria recently had to transfer over €9 billion to other states. “This cannot go on,” Söder declared.

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