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Reviewing Israel’s entrapment in ‘eight fronts of conflict’

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On October 30, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution urging Israel to rectify recent misconduct toward UN-mandated institutions. This included a call from all 15 member states, including the United States, for Israel to reverse its decision to shut down the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). The resolution emphasized that UNRWA plays a “crucial role in all humanitarian efforts in Gaza” and provides “life-saving humanitarian aid” along with education, health, and social services in the occupied Palestinian territories, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.

This development indicates that Israel’s confrontation with the UN has escalated to a point of acute tension, placing it in an increasingly isolated position. Even the United States, which has historically supported Israel, strongly opposes its expansion and escalation of what can be called the “eighth front,” exacerbating its relations with the UN.

On October 28, the Israeli parliament passed two laws banning UNRWA’s activities in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories on grounds of alleged support for terrorism. UNRWA was established by UN General Assembly Resolution 302 on December 8, 1948, to provide aid to Palestinian refugees. Following the 1967 war, the agency’s humanitarian mandate was expanded to Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria. The wars of 1948 and 1967 displaced approximately 800,000 and 1,000,000 Palestinians, respectively, most of whom sought refuge in neighboring Arab countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt, resulting in the world’s largest and longest-standing political refugee crisis.

On October 5, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lamented that his country was engaged in conflict on “seven fronts.” However, I argue that Israel’s conflict extends beyond these seven fronts, encompassing an “eighth front” that involves broader soft confrontations and localized hard conflicts with the United Nations. Many readers may be unaware of the origins and nature of Israel’s “eight fronts,” making it necessary to provide a systematic explanation.

Netanyahu’s “seven fronts” include: Gaza and the West Bank in Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. The “eighth front,” as defined by me, is Israel’s confrontation with the United Nations, spanning from the UN General Assembly to the Security Council, from UN headquarters in New York and Geneva to UNRWA in Gaza and UN peacekeeping camps along the Israel-Lebanon border. This front has included verbal assaults on the UN and its leaders, as well as acts of violence, including gunfire and shelling directed at UN forces and the occupation of peacekeeping camps. Israel’s current posture reflects an unprecedented level of defiance, characterized by audacity and recklessness—seemingly challenging the international community at large while disregarding who conferred its legitimacy as a sovereign state.

On November 29, 1947, the second session of the UN General Assembly, despite opposition from Arab nations, forcefully adopted Resolution 181 to partition Palestine. This resolution allocated 52% of the land to Jewish inhabitants, who constituted only one-third of the local population, while 48% was designated for the indigenous Arab population—now known as “Palestinians”—who represented two-thirds of the population. Sovereignty over Jerusalem was placed under the UN. The Arab world’s resistance to this resolution, which shifted the burden of Europe’s anti-Semitic and genocidal history to the indigenous Palestinian people, ignited the Arab-Israeli conflict and resulted in further illegal annexation of Palestinian land by Israel, laying the groundwork for subsequent wars between Israel and its neighboring states.

Over the course of more than half a century, various Palestinian factions have increasingly faced the reality of their situation and reached a consensus: they now only aspire to reclaim Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem—territories constituting merely 23% of pre-partition Palestine. In stark contrast, figures such as Prime Minister Netanyahu and other proponents of “Greater Israel” seek the total annexation of Palestinian lands, extending their ambitions to parts of Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan, justified solely on the basis that their ancestors once resided there, even if only as refugees rather than rulers or native inhabitants.

The United Nations, having conferred legitimacy upon Israel’s sovereignty at the expense of Palestinian rights, can be considered the “mother” of Israel under international law. However, under the prolonged protection of the United States, the vast majority of UN General Assembly and Security Council resolutions concerning Israel have been vetoed, fostering a climate of impunity and defiance. Today, Israel’s actions betray an unprecedented disregard for international norms, positioning it as a “Middle Eastern Oedipus,” engaging in reckless behavior that exacerbates current conflicts and severely depletes the global sympathy once extended due to historical persecution.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres faced severe criticism from Israel for his measured statement, “Hamas’s attack on Israel did not occur in a vacuum,” highlighting the tragedy and suffering imposed on the Palestinian people through over 70 years of occupation. Israel responded by challenging Guterres’ legitimacy, persistently calling for his resignation, ultimately designating him a persona non grata, and denying him a visa.

Amid mounting censure from both the UN General Assembly and Security Council, Israel has provocatively labeled the UN a “terrorist organization” or an enabler of terrorism, prohibiting UNRWA from fulfilling its humanitarian mandate. In an even more aggressive move, Israeli forces, despite international condemnation, have repeatedly targeted UN peacekeeping troops stationed at the Israel-Lebanon border to monitor ceasefire agreements, aiming to drive them from their posts.

Gaza and the West Bank represent Israel’s first and second fronts of conflict and are the catalysts for broader regional tensions. Although Israeli forces and settlers withdrew from Gaza in 2005, Israel still maintains control over its territorial waters, airspace, and border crossings. Consequently, Gaza remains an occupied territory, often referred to as the “world’s largest open-air prison,” and continues to be an integral part of the occupied Palestinian territories. Thus, the relationship between Israel and Gaza is one of occupier and occupied; between Israel and Hamas, it is one of occupier and armed resistance. Israel’s narrative framing of the “Israel-Hamas war” seeks to isolate Hamas from the broader Palestinian resistance, obscuring the fundamental nature of the “Israel-Palestine conflict.”

The West Bank, covering over 6,000 square kilometers, is separated from the 360-square-kilometer Gaza Strip by a narrow strip of Israeli territory less than 100 kilometers wide. For a long time, the West Bank was the stronghold of Hamas’s political rival, Fatah. However, in recent years, the West Bank has become progressively “Hamas-ized,” resembling a second Gaza or “Hamastan,” as more Palestinians in the West Bank have abandoned the decades-long moderate approach and turned toward Hamas.

During my tenure as an Xinhua correspondent in Gaza from 1999 to 2002, public support for Hamas was around 30%, and its influence and activities were largely confined to Gaza. In the major 2004 Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the main battleground was the West Bank, where Fatah was Israel’s principal adversary, while Hamas maintained a more passive role in Gaza.

Since Hamas’s electoral victory in the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council elections, the political balance in Palestine has shifted dramatically. Subsequent Israeli-Palestinian conflicts have centered around Gaza, with Hamas and even more radical factions such as Islamic Jihad and militant Salafi groups taking the lead. No elections have been held in Palestine for years, as every poll predicts a Hamas victory. Even high-ranking Fatah officials, imprisoned by Israel for over a decade, have joined Hamas upon their release. The increasing influence of Hamas in the West Bank has prompted Israel to deploy major forces there to suppress violent resistance, inadvertently enabling Hamas to orchestrate a surprise assault from Gaza, causing significant Israeli casualties. The geographical and social “Hamas-ization” of the occupied Palestinian territories is, in part, the outcome of Netanyahu’s “mowing the grass” strategy, which has deliberately fostered a dual power structure among Palestinians.

The rationale is straightforward: although Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, it continues to control strategically significant but limited areas, such as the Shebaa Farms, providing Hezbollah with a basis for attacking Israel under international law. Hezbollah, a Shia militant group supported and funded by Iran, has also been embroiled in both overt and covert conflicts with Lebanon’s Christian factions and Sunni Muslims. While it has undeniably brought waves of conflict upon Lebanon, Hezbollah originated as a product of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Notably, no Lebanese political party has openly challenged Hezbollah’s national right to reclaim occupied territories.

Since the loss of the 1,200-square-kilometer Golan Heights after the failed counteroffensive during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Syria has maintained a state of cold peace with Israel. The onset of the 2011 Arab Spring destabilized Syria, leading to the intervention of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Shia militias, and Hezbollah under the pretext of fighting the Islamic State (ISIS), thereby presenting a direct threat to Israel. Over the past decade, Israel has persistently targeted sites within Syria—not to destroy the Syrian government forces but to expel Iranian and Hezbollah forces from the region. The Syrian government, unable to reclaim the Golan Heights, has leveraged external actors to pressure Israel, transforming its territory into a proxy battleground.

Iraq has been engaged in hostilities against Israel since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. After the 1958 revolution that toppled the monarchy and Saddam Hussein’s ascent to power a decade later, Iraq became a prominent base and financier for the Palestinian resistance for nearly half a century. Following the Shiite ascendency post-2003, Iraq’s policy toward Israel, heavily influenced by Iran, remained unchanged. The subsequent emergence of the Shia militia “Popular Mobilization Forces” (PMF) under the banner of anti-terrorism marked a new phase.

During the current conflict, the PMF has, for the first time, embraced the mantle of Arab nationalism, engaging in attacks on Israeli and U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria and earning the label “Iraq’s Hezbollah.” This development has plunged Iraq back into direct confrontation with Israel for the first time since the Gulf War, turning Iraqi airspace and territory into a proxy battlefield, vulnerable to incursions by Iranian missiles, drones, and Israeli jets. The PMF, under the pretext of liberating Palestine, has opened a front against Israel, motivated by Iranian influence, Shia solidarity, and its own bid for political dominance within Iraq.

The Houthi movement, which models itself after Iran’s Islamic Republic, maintains intricate ties with both Iran and Hezbollah, often coordinating actions in concert. Despite not having previously positioned itself as an advocate for the Palestinian cause, the Houthi’s sudden, significant involvement in the current conflict is perceived as “opportunistic overreach.” This maneuver reflects its efforts to consolidate power in Yemen, drape itself in the rhetoric of Arab nationalism, push for the withdrawal of Saudi and other foreign forces, and gain recognition from neighboring states as Yemen’s legitimate government in place of the now largely defunct exiled administration.

Historically, 2,500 years ago, Cyrus the Great of Persia was celebrated as a “Messiah” in the Bible for rescuing the ancestors of the Israelites. However, since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has been an unwavering opponent of Zionism and Israel’s expansionist policies, framing its involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian and broader Arab-Israeli conflicts as part of its Islamic duties and leveraging these engagements to assert itself as a regional power. Consequently, both Israel and the United States view Iran as the primary instigator of regional instability.

Israel and Iran have long engaged in proxy and covert warfare, which has now become more overt, evolving into direct confrontation. The conventional paradigm of Arab states waging war against Israel, which persisted until the end of the 1982 Lebanon War, has shifted. The new geopolitical landscape is defined by an “Axis of Resistance,” led by Iran and comprising sovereign Syria and non-state actors from Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq.

Israel has seldom stood alone; whether within the United Nations or in Middle Eastern conflicts, the U.S. has been its stalwart ally. Over the past year, the U.S. has vetoed five Security Council resolutions aimed at establishing a ceasefire in Gaza, provided Israel with continuous military support, and shared in some military operations. This assistance includes deploying carrier strike groups, positioning the THAAD missile defense system to protect Israel, intercepting Iranian missile and drone attacks, applauding the elimination of Hamas leaders, and conducting airstrikes on Houthi and PMF bases. Consequently, Israel’s engagement on its “eight fronts” is largely conducted with U.S. backing, symbolizing their alignment in the same strategic trench.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.

Opinion

What is scale in foreign policy? How is success measured in foreign policy?

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By its very nature, foreign policy feeds into and draws nourishment from numerous, disparate, and varied fields. It is a domain with manifold and diverse inputs. For foreign policy is examined alongside a broad array of subjects, ranging from geography to history, economics to intelligence, and military might to public diplomacy, commonly termed soft power elements.

The capacity of the state, that is, the scale of the state, or in other words the aggregate of its elements of power (namely political, economic, military, and soft power components), is decisive in foreign policy. Geography is decisive in foreign policy. Commercial relations are decisive in foreign policy. Energy dependence on another country or countries, if present, is decisive in foreign policy. Foreign policy cannot be conducted in spite of these four factors.

There is more. A country’s capacity, its scale, does not increase overnight, from one day to the next. It requires planning. It requires national consensus. It requires time. It requires preparation. Nor are these enough. The regional and global environment, the conjuncture, and the international plane must also allow for it. The stance of allies and adversaries is, of course, also important.

For the international environment is, by its nature, complex. It is an environment rife with contradiction, turmoil, conflict, and tension. To draw an analogy, the person in the driver’s seat of foreign policy is not a motorist speeding along the road as they please. There are things they must not forget, rules they must obey, red lights, vehicles speeding up from behind, a truck moving ahead, and a heavy vehicle hurtling toward them from the opposite direction.

Success in foreign policy does not arrive simply because a politician we like has become foreign minister. For a foreign minister is only as effective as the power, capacity, and weight of their country. One must accept this plain truth.

Moreover, there are simple, straightforward questions that reveal whether foreign policy, which some find deeply complex and inscrutable, is successful or not.

There are undoubtedly ways to measure the effectiveness, prestige, influence, and success of foreign policy.

For instance, the number of countries that respect a passport, how many countries can be visited visa-free, and how many countries impose visa requirements and grant those visas only with great difficulty are important indicators of a country’s standing.

Let us take ourselves as an example. Which countries require a visa for the Turkish passport? Which ones do not? Is it easy for our citizens to obtain visas for the countries they primarily wish to visit?

Let us give another example from the Turkic world.

On the Cyprus issue, which we regard as a national cause across government and opposition, right and left, Kemalist and Milli Görüş adherents alike, how many countries have we succeeded in having recognize the TRNC? Why do the Turkic states (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) not recognize the TRNC? Far from recognizing the TRNC, how do the Turkic states in Central Asia (Turkistan) explain to Ankara their developing relations with the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus, which Türkiye does not recognize, their appointment of ambassadors, and their recognition of Southern Cyprus as the island’s sole legitimate government?

We must also ask this question, of course: What is the state of Türkiye’s bilateral trade with the Turkic states?

Let us give an example of the relationship between foreign policy and big capital.

In which countries are big capital circles, among the greatest supporters of the ruling bloc, winning major tenders?

In our country, across both ruling and opposition ranks, there is a political party order that supports Türkiye’s EU membership. Yet how much progress has been made on EU membership?

Why is US President Trump not keeping the promises he made to Türkiye at the NATO summit held in Ankara a few months ago?

How many contracts has the new regime in Syria, the al-Sharaa administration, awarded to Turkish companies for the reconstruction of its country?

Has the government in Libya that Türkiye supports paid the money owed to Turkish construction firms, outstanding for years?

How does Qatar, with whom our relations are very good, explain its developing ties, energy agreements, and joint military drills with Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration, disregarding our sensitivities?

Who is the addressee of the harsh statements used in recent weeks by Azerbaijan, which we view as “two states, one nation”? To what extent does Azerbaijan share Türkiye’s policy on Israel? What does Türkiye think about the scale, depth, and intimacy of Azerbaijan-Israel relations?

These questions can certainly be multiplied.

Yet without taking into account the scale of the state and observing the criteria for measuring foreign policy, no sound assessment can be made.

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The era of corridor alliances in the Middle East

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In the Middle East, war is no longer waged merely to seize territory. The true contest turns on who will control the energy pipelines, trade routes, ports, and railways of tomorrow. Missiles may strike cities today, but the maps of the future are being drawn through transport and energy corridors.

In this context, interpreting Türkiye’s presence in the Mecca Alliance solely as military support for Saudi Arabian security remains incomplete; it fails to explain why two states that viewed each other with mutual suspicion until recently would take steps toward a cooperation close enough to constitute a shared destiny.

Alongside Saudi Arabia’s existential motives, Ankara’s participation in this alliance is anchored in a profound geopolitical foundation: to position itself within, and if possible at the very centre of, the Middle East’s reconfigured energy and transport corridors.

Today, it cannot be said that Riyadh and Ankara see eye to eye on every regional issue. The threat perceptions and priorities of the two countries do not, quite naturally, entirely coincide. On the geopolitical chessboard, partnerships do not always arise from identical agendas. When reasons are sufficiently compelling, particularly existential ones, they can override political differences and enable common ground along the same strategic path.

A new war of corridors unfolds in the Middle East

On one side lies IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor), planned to extend from India through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel to Europe. On the other stands the Development Road, which aims to link the Persian Gulf across Iraq to Türkiye, and onward to Europe.

These two undertakings are, of course, far more than mere transport projects. They represent two divergent geopolitical answers to where the future flow of trade and energy between Asia and Europe will traverse; for Türkiye, this issue is of vital importance.

If a corridor system taking shape to Türkiye’s south, beyond Ankara’s orbit, becomes permanent, Türkiye could forfeit not only an economic opportunity but also a substantial portion of its strategic centrality in the Middle East. It is through this prism that the Mecca Alliance must be evaluated.

Türkiye’s seat at the same table with Saudi Arabia signifies more than military solidarity. Riyadh and Ankara must sit together to avoid exclusion from the region’s emergent security and economic architecture, for the security of a corridor and the corridor itself are no longer separate matters.

The Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab, and the Suez Canal are links in the very same chain. A security crisis in one directly impacts the others. While the vulnerability of Hormuz makes alternative export routes for Gulf oil indispensable, instability across the Red Sea heightens the strategic cost of Suez.

Saudi Arabia’s alternative pipelines connecting its eastern oil fields to Red Sea terminals are therefore not merely energy infrastructure; they are strategic bypasses mitigating dependence on Hormuz.

For Türkiye, the Development Road fulfills the same function across a broader geography. Stretching from the Persian Gulf through Iraq to Türkiye, and from Türkiye into Europe, this artery possesses the potential to forge a new overland backbone connecting the Gulf to the Mediterranean and Europe. As security concerns in the Red Sea mount and the vulnerability of Suez deepens, the value of this route rises accordingly.

The Hejaz Railway: Revived once again

The return of the Hejaz Railway to the regional agenda signifies far more than mere nostalgia. Once linking Istanbul to Damascus, Amman, and the Hejaz, the railway served as one of the primary transport and logistical arteries of the Ottoman geography.

Reviving the idea of the Hejaz Railway could become the emblem of Türkiye’s drive to reimagine its historical transport connections between the Gulf, the Hejaz, and the Levant through modern rail, energy, and logistics networks.

The objective here is not to restore the past, but to transpose the strategic logic of that historical geographical linkage into the twenty-first century. For this reason, Türkiye’s role in the Mecca Alliance and the resurgence of the Hejaz Railway project must be viewed as components of the same overarching picture.

Corridors do not consist solely of energy pipelines. Railways, ports, highways, electrical interconnectors, logistical hubs, and security architectures are all facets of the same geopolitical grid, and safeguarding these networks requires political alliances.

Herein lies the strategic significance of Saudi Arabia and Türkiye sitting at the same table in Mecca, even at a juncture when their views on Syria diverge.

Ankara and Riyadh do not need to agree on every subject. Yet neither wishes to see the new map of the Middle East drawn to its detriment. Türkiye’s aim is not to build an anti-bloc against any specific country alongside Saudi Arabia; rather, the goal is to avoid exclusion from the future energy and trade systems of the Middle East, while securing a decisive voice in establishing their security architecture.

Hence, for Türkiye, the Mecca Alliance is far more than a simple defence pact. Securing the Development Road, shielding Gulf energy corridors, stabilising the Red Sea, rethinking connections across the Hejaz and the Levant, and bolstering trade corridors reaching Europe all intersect within this single strategic equation.

In this equation, Türkiye’s foremost advantage remains its geography. Ankara sits at the northern terminus of the overland routes linking the Gulf to Europe; within NATO; and at the crossroads connecting the Black Sea, the Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East.

Will Türkiye become one of the powers shaping the Middle East’s energy and trade architecture over the coming decades, or will it be reduced to a mere transit state traversed by routes designed by others? That question defines the true strategic significance of the Mecca Alliance for Ankara.

In the Middle East of tomorrow, it will be impossible to separate the corridor carrying energy, the security framework protecting that corridor, and the alliance constructing that security framework.

Whoever controls the corridor shapes commerce. Whoever guarantees the routes through which trade flows holds sway over the regional balance of power. This is the true dimension of the contest currently underway in the Middle East.

A succession of distinct and largely mutually exclusive ambitions are competing for dominance in the current climate: India’s linkage to Europe, the Gulf’s new economic horizons, Saudi Arabia’s alternative energy routes, the security crisis in the Red Sea, the strategic weight of Hormuz, and Türkiye’s aspiration to open outward to Europe via the Development Road. Ironically, perhaps, the conflict that will decide which corridor underpins global stability has already begun, and it will likely continue spreading to new fronts. Regrettably, the fires in our region appear poised to intensify long before they abate.

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Istanbul’s East-West Forum: A conversation the world can no longer avoid

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Dr. Ahmed Moustafa, Director & Founder, Asia Center for Studies & Translation, Egypt

In a city that has spent centuries translating the language of one civilization to another, the first East-West Forum arrived at a moment when the world itself seemed to have lost the vocabulary for talking across its divisions.

Held in Istanbul on Sept. 26–27 and preceded by meetings around the event, the forum brought together diplomats, academics, journalists, strategists and political thinkers from a wide range of countries. Hosted by Harici Media in partnership with the Berlin-based European Transcontinental Initiative, the gathering was conceived as an attempt to examine a world increasingly defined by competing power centers, regional wars, economic fragmentation, artificial intelligence and the erosion of confidence in institutions created after the Second World War. Harici reported that participants came from roughly 30 countries.

For us, the significance of Istanbul was not simply a matter of the speakers on the panel or the structure of the programme. Its deeper importance lay in the willingness to put difficult — and sometimes uncomfortable — questions on the table.

We would like to extend our sincere thanks and appreciation to my friend and brother, Mr. Tunç Akkoç, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Harici Media, for his gracious invitation to a representative of the Asia Center for Studies & Translation, Egypt, to participate in the Forum as a speaker and commentator. His initiative in creating a platform where competing geopolitical narratives could meet directly deserves recognition.

In his opening remarks, Akkos stressed that the initiative was intended to establish a permanent platform where people representing different political and intellectual traditions and perspectives could meet and engage in direct dialogue.

This vision is particularly significant because the traditional language used in international relations has increasingly struggled to explain the realities of a rapidly changing world.

The Problem of Proxy Wars

During the session that discussed proxy wars in the region and ways to reach solutions to their crises, the Center put forward the view that the Middle East cannot simply be understood through the traditional map that divides the parties into “good” and “evil,” or into “responsible states” and “rogue states.”

Such terms, in our assessment, often reflect the perspective of powers that possess extensive influence over international media and financial and security institutions.

The Center particularly criticised what we see as political bias within important sectors of the Western media and some non-governmental organisations that receive Western funding. From our perspective, these institutions can, in some cases, move from being mere observers of geopolitical conflicts to becoming influential parties in the battle over the narrative and the story.

However, this view should remain open to debate and should not automatically be accepted as an absolute truth.

The more important question is not whether every Western journalist, every NGO, or every Western institution works to serve a single geopolitical agenda clearly, this is not the case, but whether the information environment itself has become so highly polarised that the public is now receiving radically different interpretations of the very same war.

In our assessment, the answer is increasingly approaching “yes.”

The problem becomes particularly clear when searching for the term “proxy wars” in the Middle East. Some of the first results focus on groups associated with Iran, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as Hamas, whereas the history of regional conflicts is far more complex.

Al-Qaeda and ISIS emerged through different historical trajectories, with Anglo-Saxon support that was “created by Britain and the United States.” In environments dominated by the United States and Britain, Al-Qaeda emerged from the environment associated with Osama bin Laden and the Afghan jihad, while ISIS developed largely from Al-Qaeda in Iraq, under American sponsorship, to pursue a certain agenda in the region and advance the scenario of “creative chaos” promoted by Condoleezza Rice, the radical US Secretary of State.

At the same time, US policy toward Afghanistan during the Cold War contributed to shaping the broader environment from which some militant jihadist movements later emerged.

These distinctions matter.

Because propaganda often begins where complex historical details end.

Who Has the Right to Define a “Rogue State”?

The same problem appears in the vocabulary used to describe states.

Countries such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are frequently portrayed in Western strategic discourse as states challenging the existing international order.

Egypt, despite the different nature of its relationship with Washington, can also become the subject of criticism when its foreign policy does not conform to certain Western expectations.

The question is not whether these governments should be exempt from criticism. Of course not.

The deeper question is this: can the international system remain sustainable when one geopolitical camp increasingly assumes the authority to define which governments are legitimate, which movements are terrorist, which wars are defensive and which forms of resistance are acceptable?

That was one of the central questions behind our intervention in Istanbul.

The Middle East has repeatedly been presented through the lens of the “Iranian threat” as the principal strategic danger.

There is no question that Iran possesses significant military and regional capabilities, and that its policies are deeply contested by many neighbouring states. At the same time, reducing virtually every regional security problem to Tehran can obscure the interests and roles of other actors, including Israel, the United States, Gulf states, armed groups and local political forces.

The region has repeatedly paid a heavy price for simplistic interpretations of complex conflicts.

The Economics of Fear

The discussions in Istanbul also led us to a broader American question: to what extent can fear itself become a source of political and economic power?

Historically, the United States has experienced intense political campaigns shaped by perceived racial, ideological and security threats.

One does not need to accept every interpretation of this history to recognise that fear can become a factor with tangible economic consequences.

A 2020 study by Citi estimated that racial discrimination against Black Americans had cost the US economy approximately $16 trillion in lost economic output since 2000, based on an analysis of disparities in wages, education, housing and investment.

This figure demonstrates the extent of the economic losses associated with racial discrimination and exclusion. It also raises questions about the relationship between fear-based narratives concerning Black Americans, media influence, the political power of the gun lobby and the broader economic consequences of insecurity.

More importantly, however, the study highlights a fundamental point: bias and insecurity carry substantial and measurable economic costs.

The broader lesson has direct relevance to foreign policy.

When societies are continually presented with existential enemies, military spending and the expansion of security institutions become politically easier to justify.

America After Iran

In Istanbul, we also advanced the view that the United States after its confrontation with Iran in 2026 should not simply be understood through the traditional image of unlimited American power.

The conflict exposed economic and strategic vulnerabilities.

The Strait of Hormuz emerged as a major strategic pressure point for global energy markets, amid disruptions to international trade that forced governments and companies to search for alternative routes and supplies.

The consequences were reflected in oil prices and energy costs in Europe and elsewhere.

This does not mean that American power has disappeared. Rather, it suggests that military power is no longer synonymous with strategic control.

The rise of China, Russia, ASEAN, Iran and other centres of economic and diplomatic influence has made the international order increasingly complex and dispersed.

The East-West Forum itself reflected this reality, bringing together voices from Europe, Asia, the Middle East and North America while explicitly addressing multipolarity and the ongoing transformation of the global order.

America Is Changing From Within

The domestic dimension of American politics also deserves attention.

The emergence of figures such as Zohran Mamdani in New York and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan reflects changes in the American political debate over inequality, foreign policy, healthcare, identity and the influence of established political and economic interests.

Their political trajectories should not be treated as evidence of a predetermined future for the United States.

They do, however, illustrate how issues that were once treated as peripheral including the costs of war, US policy toward Israel, economic inequality and the political influence of younger and more diverse generations have moved closer to the centre of American political debate.

This is another reason why East-West dialogue cannot remain confined to foreign ministries and military institutions.

A Dinner for Dialogue

One of the most memorable moments on the margins of the Forum was the private dinner held on the evening of Friday, September 25, hosted by H.E. Mr. Hasan Capan, Chairman of the Turkish-Chinese Friendship Foundation, and H.E. Ambassador Ersin Erçin, Vice Chairman of the Foundation, in honour of the speakers and participants.

We extend our sincere thanks and appreciation to both of them for their generosity, friendship and support.

The gathering was more than simply a dinner. It provided an opportunity for personal interaction, an exchange of ideas and the building of relationships among participants — precisely the kind of human diplomacy that formal conferences sometimes lack.

Real dialogue does not always begin behind conference podiums.

Very often, it begins around a single table.

Istanbul’s Larger Message

The first East-West Forum should be regarded as the beginning of a dialogue, not the end of a debate.

The organisers have already articulated a vision of transforming the initiative into an annual gathering in Istanbul, developing expert working groups, establishing an East-West Forum network and potentially creating a business council capable of connecting intellectual dialogue with economic cooperation.

This may ultimately prove to be one of its most important contributions.

The world that emerges from the current conflicts including the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will require more than ceasefire agreements.

It will require a new conversation about security, energy, sovereignty, development, technology and coexistence.

Istanbul is an exceptional setting for such a dialogue. One participant even proposed moving the headquarters of international organisations, including the United Nations, to Istanbul.

For centuries, the city has stood between two continents without belonging exclusively to either.

The East-West Forum can follow the same principle: not choosing one civilisation against another, but creating a space in which East and West can confront their differences without turning disagreement into permanent conflict.

For this reason, we see the Istanbul gathering as an announcement of intent.

It was not an attempt to erase differences.

It was an attempt to make dialogue possible despite them.

At a time when proxy conflicts increasingly risk evolving into direct confrontations, this may be among the most important political conversations the world can undertake today.

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