With Donald Trump securing a second term as U.S. president this week, the Taiwanese government, which heavily relies on U.S. support for defense, is preparing to enhance relations with Washington. Trump previously suggested that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for its defense support and has criticized Taiwan for impacting the U.S. chip industry.
Trump’s approach to Taiwan is among the most significant questions facing his new administration. While the U.S. officially respects Beijing’s sovereignty under the One-China Principle and does not formally recognize Taiwan’s independence, it remains Taipei’s main political and security ally and continues to bolster Taiwan’s defense by providing weapons and training its forces.
Taiwanese leaders Lai Ching-te and Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung quickly extended their congratulations to Trump. Lin remarked that Taiwan, a global semiconductor leader, would play a vital role in helping Trump realize his “Make America Great Again” mission.
“We are confident we will work well with the new Trump administration,” a senior government official told Nikkei Asia on the condition of anonymity.
The official added that China will likely work to fuel skepticism about the U.S.-Taiwan relationship and President Lai but noted that during Trump’s previous term, many high-level officials had productive interactions and cooperation with Taiwan.
However, Trump is known for his transactional diplomacy and emphasis on trade tariffs. Taiwan will closely monitor his cabinet selections—particularly in the foreign and defense departments—as well as his stance on the Ukraine conflict, demands on security partners in Europe and Asia, and whether he will intensify the U.S.-China trade war.
Analysts expect Taiwan to call for increased defense spending and to accelerate military reforms.
“President Trump’s ‘peace through strength’ approach means our adversaries will be deterred and our allies will carry a greater share of the global security burden,” said Ivan Kanapathy, a former senior national security official under Trump.
Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo emphasized that, regardless of the election outcome, it’s crucial to ensure the U.S. understands Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and recognizes Taiwan’s economic and strategic significance.
Some leaders within Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party (KMT), which advocates for closer ties with China, have voiced reservations about increasing defense expenditures. KMT legislator Weng Hsiao-ling recently told Nikkei Asia that he opposed a substantial boost in the defense budget.
Chieh-Ting Yeh, director of the U.S. Taiwan Watch think tank, suggested that Taiwan should engage beyond diplomatic channels, reaching out to influential figures in Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and other sectors familiar with Trump.
“Taiwan’s leaders need to connect with people who know Trump personally and have his ear,” Yeh commented at the Taiwan Foreign Correspondents Club (TFCC), acknowledging the likely policy unpredictability.
Courtney Donovan Smith, a commentator and former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Taichung, pointed out that some members of Trump’s first administration supported Taiwan, partly as leverage against China. Smith noted that National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were strong advocates for Taiwan.
After Lai posted on X about the enduring Taiwan-U.S. partnership rooted in shared values and regional stability, former national security adviser Robert O’Brien thanked him, hinting at the continuity of their alliance.
A confidential memo from a prominent U.S. consulting firm—seen by Nikkei Asia—lists O’Brien as Trump’s likely Secretary of State and Pompeo as a probable Secretary of Defense candidate. Additionally, Republican Senator Tom Cotton, another defense contender, has called for “strategic clarity” in U.S.-Taiwan relations, replacing the current “strategic ambiguity” and explicitly promising U.S. intervention should China attack Taiwan.
Experts note that Taiwan’s de facto representation in the U.S. will be pivotal in maintaining bilateral relations. Sources suggest Taiwan might consider appointing a new de facto U.S. ambassador, possibly replacing Alexander Yui given the changing diplomatic landscape.
Taiwan’s newly appointed deputy ambassador Andrea Yi-Shan Yang, seen as a key intermediary, brings valuable experience, having collaborated closely with President Lai and Foreign Minister Lin.
“Yang is an exceptional diplomat, capable of communicating Taiwan’s priorities effectively in Washington,” commented Raymond Sung, vice-president of the Prospect Foundation, during a speech at the TFCC. He added, “If Trump’s senior appointments are handled by professionals rather than political outsiders, Taiwan’s relationship with the U.S. will remain secure.”
In a separate TFCC session, Taiwan’s Environment Minister Peng Chi-ming expressed optimism about ongoing cooperation in technology and climate policy with the U.S., despite Trump’s previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
“I believe Taiwan’s contributions in supply chain stability and semiconductor production will ensure continuity in the U.S.-Taiwan relationship,” Peng stated. He emphasized that private-sector initiatives are driving progress in climate technology, with Taiwan playing an essential role in supporting renewable energy and EV infrastructure.
Similarly, Economic Minister Kuo Jyh-huei pledged support for Taiwanese companies seeking to diversify production away from China, in light of potential U.S.-China trade tensions.
According to Nick Marro of the Economist Intelligence Unit, any future trade war could accelerate Taiwan’s shift toward Southeast Asia or India. However, he noted that Taiwan’s reliance on China’s manufacturing advantages—such as its low-cost ecosystem and talent pools—will likely prevent a significant exodus of Taiwanese firms from the Chinese market.
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