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Taiwan braces for second Trump term

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With Donald Trump securing a second term as U.S. president this week, the Taiwanese government, which heavily relies on U.S. support for defense, is preparing to enhance relations with Washington. Trump previously suggested that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for its defense support and has criticized Taiwan for impacting the U.S. chip industry.

Trump’s approach to Taiwan is among the most significant questions facing his new administration. While the U.S. officially respects Beijing’s sovereignty under the One-China Principle and does not formally recognize Taiwan’s independence, it remains Taipei’s main political and security ally and continues to bolster Taiwan’s defense by providing weapons and training its forces.

Taiwanese leaders Lai Ching-te and Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung quickly extended their congratulations to Trump. Lin remarked that Taiwan, a global semiconductor leader, would play a vital role in helping Trump realize his “Make America Great Again” mission.

“We are confident we will work well with the new Trump administration,” a senior government official told Nikkei Asia on the condition of anonymity.

The official added that China will likely work to fuel skepticism about the U.S.-Taiwan relationship and President Lai but noted that during Trump’s previous term, many high-level officials had productive interactions and cooperation with Taiwan.

However, Trump is known for his transactional diplomacy and emphasis on trade tariffs. Taiwan will closely monitor his cabinet selections—particularly in the foreign and defense departments—as well as his stance on the Ukraine conflict, demands on security partners in Europe and Asia, and whether he will intensify the U.S.-China trade war.

Analysts expect Taiwan to call for increased defense spending and to accelerate military reforms.

“President Trump’s ‘peace through strength’ approach means our adversaries will be deterred and our allies will carry a greater share of the global security burden,” said Ivan Kanapathy, a former senior national security official under Trump.

Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo emphasized that, regardless of the election outcome, it’s crucial to ensure the U.S. understands Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and recognizes Taiwan’s economic and strategic significance.

Some leaders within Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party (KMT), which advocates for closer ties with China, have voiced reservations about increasing defense expenditures. KMT legislator Weng Hsiao-ling recently told Nikkei Asia that he opposed a substantial boost in the defense budget.

Chieh-Ting Yeh, director of the U.S. Taiwan Watch think tank, suggested that Taiwan should engage beyond diplomatic channels, reaching out to influential figures in Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and other sectors familiar with Trump.

“Taiwan’s leaders need to connect with people who know Trump personally and have his ear,” Yeh commented at the Taiwan Foreign Correspondents Club (TFCC), acknowledging the likely policy unpredictability.

Courtney Donovan Smith, a commentator and former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Taichung, pointed out that some members of Trump’s first administration supported Taiwan, partly as leverage against China. Smith noted that National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were strong advocates for Taiwan.

After Lai posted on X about the enduring Taiwan-U.S. partnership rooted in shared values and regional stability, former national security adviser Robert O’Brien thanked him, hinting at the continuity of their alliance.

A confidential memo from a prominent U.S. consulting firm—seen by Nikkei Asia—lists O’Brien as Trump’s likely Secretary of State and Pompeo as a probable Secretary of Defense candidate. Additionally, Republican Senator Tom Cotton, another defense contender, has called for “strategic clarity” in U.S.-Taiwan relations, replacing the current “strategic ambiguity” and explicitly promising U.S. intervention should China attack Taiwan.

Experts note that Taiwan’s de facto representation in the U.S. will be pivotal in maintaining bilateral relations. Sources suggest Taiwan might consider appointing a new de facto U.S. ambassador, possibly replacing Alexander Yui given the changing diplomatic landscape.

Taiwan’s newly appointed deputy ambassador Andrea Yi-Shan Yang, seen as a key intermediary, brings valuable experience, having collaborated closely with President Lai and Foreign Minister Lin.

“Yang is an exceptional diplomat, capable of communicating Taiwan’s priorities effectively in Washington,” commented Raymond Sung, vice-president of the Prospect Foundation, during a speech at the TFCC. He added, “If Trump’s senior appointments are handled by professionals rather than political outsiders, Taiwan’s relationship with the U.S. will remain secure.”

In a separate TFCC session, Taiwan’s Environment Minister Peng Chi-ming expressed optimism about ongoing cooperation in technology and climate policy with the U.S., despite Trump’s previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

“I believe Taiwan’s contributions in supply chain stability and semiconductor production will ensure continuity in the U.S.-Taiwan relationship,” Peng stated. He emphasized that private-sector initiatives are driving progress in climate technology, with Taiwan playing an essential role in supporting renewable energy and EV infrastructure.

Similarly, Economic Minister Kuo Jyh-huei pledged support for Taiwanese companies seeking to diversify production away from China, in light of potential U.S.-China trade tensions.

According to Nick Marro of the Economist Intelligence Unit, any future trade war could accelerate Taiwan’s shift toward Southeast Asia or India. However, he noted that Taiwan’s reliance on China’s manufacturing advantages—such as its low-cost ecosystem and talent pools—will likely prevent a significant exodus of Taiwanese firms from the Chinese market.

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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