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MIDDLE EAST

‘A lion in the way’ between Ankara and Damascus and the Arab world’s entryway

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Bashar Assad, President of Syria, welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, and his entourage. Normalizing relations with Turkey and other regional issues were reviewed during the meeting held in Damascus.

“In order for the meetings with the Turkish side to be fruitful and reach tangible goals and results that Syria wants from these meetings, they must be based on coordination and prior planning between Syria and Russia,” said the Syrian President.

Damascus expects Turkey “to end the occupation in Syrian territories and the support for terrorism,” Syrian President Assad told Putin’s delegate Lavrentiev.

Lavrentiev praised the tripartite summit in Moscow in the meeting, stressing the need to follow up on these meetings at the foreign ministers’ level.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, on a diplomatic visit to Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, also expressed that they welcomed the dialogue between Syria and Turkey. “We believe that it will reflect positively between the two countries,” added Abdollahian.

Arguing that “the United States does not have a policy of a regime change in Syria,” US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price has said that the US does not support the normalization process between Turkey and Syria. As for the “atrocities” perpetrated by the Assad regime in Syria, according to Price, he should be held to account for these “crimes against humanity.”

What has happened so far in normalization?

Turkey and Syria both made positive statements after the defense ministers of Turkey, Russia, and Syria met in Moscow on December 28. Damascus’s Al-Watan daily reported the next day that the contacts had been made in a “good mood.” The Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, also reiterated his hopes to meet with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, on a particular schedule.

The second half of January was reportedly scheduled to move military relations up to the diplomatic level. However, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced that this meeting might take place at the beginning of February.

Several factors are at play contributing to the delay in the meeting. Damascus sees the presence of Turkish troops in Syria and Ankara’s support for the Free Syrian Army as a significant problem.

For instance, the statement of Yasin Aktay, chief advisor to the President of the AK Party and writer for Yeni Şafak, that “Aleppo should be placed under the control of Turkey with a temporary status” is a striking example that amplifies the security concerns of the Syrian side.

During the talks, another fundamental setback is Ankara’s refusal to approve Damascus’s demand that Turkish support be cut from the FSA during negotiations. Damascus claims that the Turkish military’s institutional presence in Syria is the sole force keeping afloat the FSA, which requests a share in the government.

To the Lebanon-based Al Mayadin on the day of the Assad-Lavrentiev meeting, senior Syrian sources revealed that “Damascus is not interested in presenting the card of making concessions to Ankara, the withdrawal of the Turkish army from all Syrian territories should be clarified, and the meeting between the Foreign Ministers is not scheduled as Damascus still has not approved yet.” Syria has been making these same points for a long time, and within them are signals somehow aimed at Russia.

In brief, Syria wants Russia to honor its promise to remove Turkey from Syrian territory appropriately. Before unconditionally reaching tangible goals, restates Damascus, Syria has no interest in turning into leverage that may be used in the election campaign in Turkey by intensifying the diplomacy.

Despite Moscow’s insistence, Damascus’s slow rapprochement with Turkey may be partially explained by Damascus’s ongoing normalization with Arab nations in the background. In other words, Syria is engaging in feverish efforts to turn back not just with Turkey but also with the rest of the Arab world. And the circumstance provides a variety of advantages.

Furthermore, progress is being made more quickly on that front than with Turkey. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) seems to be one step ahead in normalizing relations with the Arabs. Having visited Damascus twice since November, Emirati FM Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with Syrian leader Assad on January 4 and facilitated correspondence between Riyadh and Damascus. For the past year, the head of Syrian intelligence, Husam Luka’s close correspondences with his Saudi counterpart, Khalid bin Ali Khomeyan, is considered an indicator of thawing ties in Saudi-Syrian dialogue.

Foreign Ministers from Saudi Arabia and Egypt met on January 12 in Cairo and conveyed the message “Do not interfere in Arab states’ internal affairs” to Iran and Turkey. The two countries “rejected any military threats that infringe on the Syrian territories.”

The latest developments have pushed Ankara to find the right time in these multiple “normalizations.” As relations between Ankara and Damascus improve, Damascus is working to normalize with other Arab countries. Meanwhile, Iran also has efforts in this direction, and Ankara’s reconciliation attempts with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) continue. Iran is also working in this direction. Although reconciliation with Syria would have been easier for Ankara five years ago, Ankara should now consider the demands of Damascus, which gained the upper hand in a multi-actor normalization.

MIDDLE EAST

Israel resumes massacre in Gaza after US green light

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After failing to impose its terms on Hamas, Israel, in violation of the ceasefire agreement, launched an intense aerial assault on Gaza. With the approval of the US, the attacks in the early morning resulted in the deaths of Gazan children in their sleep.

Israel announced the end of the ceasefire and began conducting heavy airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. Tent camps where displaced Palestinians had sought refuge were also bombed, causing fires.

In a few hours, the number of people killed in the Israeli attacks exceeded 205, and the number of injured surpassed 300. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, 113 of the victims were killed in the southern part of the region. Many families were completely wiped out, and children were killed in their sleep. Images of dead babies emerged from hospitals.

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated in a post on the social media platform X that the Israeli army was striking Hamas targets in Gaza. The statement cited Hamas’s “continued refusal to release hostages” and “Trump’s Middle East Representative Steve Witkoff turning down all proposals offered by mediators” as the reasons for the attacks.

The statement signaled that Israel would expand its attacks.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also claimed that they had relaunched the attacks because Hamas refused to release the Israeli captives. Katz said, “If Hamas does not release all the captives, the gates of hell will open in Gaza.” Katz stated that they would continue the attacks until they achieved their goals.

The Israeli army also announced that the order to attack was given by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz. The army emphasized that it would continue the airstrikes “as long as necessary” and was ready to move the surprise attack beyond the air operation if ordered.

Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir is managing the attacks from the army headquarters together with Shin-Bet Director Ronen Bar.

US support for Israel, which broke the ceasefire and began targeting civilians again with attacks on Gaza, was not delayed. The White House announced that Israel had consulted with the US regarding the attacks.

Speaking to Fox News, White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, using the expression “Doomsday will break out,” stated that Trump was not afraid to support Israel.

In a written statement from Hamas, it was stated that the Israeli government had broken the ceasefire agreement that came into effect on January 19 and had declared war on the Gaza Strip.

The statement reminded that the Palestinian people were subjected to a barbaric war as well as systematic starvation policies, and added, “We hold the criminal Netanyahu and the Zionist Nazi occupiers responsible for the consequences of the treacherous attacks against Gaza and the defenseless Palestinian people.”

The statement said, “Netanyahu and his radical government, by deciding to undermine the ceasefire agreement, are endangering the lives of the captives in the Gaza Strip and dragging their fate into uncertainty. We call on the mediators to hold Netanyahu and the Zionist occupier responsible for undermining the ceasefire.”

In the statement, Arab countries and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) were called upon to fulfill their responsibilities and stand by the Palestinian people and break the blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip, and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was called upon to convene urgently.

In its statement, Hamas requested that the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continue and that Israeli forces withdraw, in accordance with UNSC Resolution 2735.

The first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January, involved Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of some of the Israeli hostages. In the second phase, which was supposed to begin after the completion of the first phase, Israel was expected to withdraw completely from Gaza, and the remaining hostages held by Hamas were to be released gradually.

However, if the second phase were to begin and Israel were to withdraw its soldiers from Gaza, Netanyahu’s government was likely to collapse. Unwilling to take this risk, Netanyahu tried to extend the first phase and rescue the Israeli hostages by pressuring Hamas together with the mediators, instead of moving on to the second phase of the agreement. However, Hamas did not accept this and demanded that the agreement be implemented in full.

Meanwhile, Israel’s attack move came after Prime Minister Netanyahu removed Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin-Bet internal intelligence organization, and David Barnea, the director of the Mossad foreign intelligence service, from the country’s negotiation team. Netanyahu argued that he made these changes because the intelligence officials were acting “too softly” in the negotiations.

There is a tension between Israel’s security institutions and the Netanyahu government, the roots of which date back to before the October 7 raid. Due to this tension, which has been increasing since October 7, the previous Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi resigned earlier this month. Shin-Bet Director Ronen Bar was fired by Netanyahu. Reactions from the opposition that Netanyahu was trying to fire Bar for personal reasons increased calls for street protests. With this attack move, Netanyahu has also set a barrier to the major protests planned for tomorrow.

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MIDDLE EAST

Türkiye to double electricity exports to Iraq, reaching 600 MW

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Türkiye is set to double its electricity exports to Iraq, raising the capacity to 600 megawatts. As summer approaches, the Baghdad administration is seeking alternative energy sources to replace those from Iran, which is currently under US sanctions.

The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity announced on Sunday that “All necessary logistical and infrastructure preparations have been completed to increase the electricity supply capacity via the Iraq-Türkiye interconnection line to 600 megawatts.”

During a visit to Iraq, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar met with various officials, including Iraqi Minister of Electricity Ziyad Ali Fadel. The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity stated that Bayraktar confirmed the electricity supply would increase “in the coming months.”

The National reported that in July of last year, Baghdad and Ankara inaugurated the electricity line, which currently supplies 300 MW of electricity to Iraq.

Under the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran initiated by US President Donald Trump, Washington revoked the waiver last week that permitted Iraq to import energy from Iran.

Despite being the second-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iraq struggles to meet its electricity demand due to decades of war, mismanagement, and corruption. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kazimi said in 2020 that the country had spent at least $60 billion on the electricity sector since the US-led invasion in 2003.

Baghdad sources approximately one-third of its electricity from Iran. Iraq buys 50 million cubic meters of natural gas and 500 megawatts of electricity daily from Iran. Iraqi officials have stated that US sanctions will only impact electricity imports.

Since 2018, Washington has granted waivers allowing Iraq to import energy from Iran for specific periods, typically ranging from 45 to 120 days. However, the US seeks to reduce Iraq’s reliance on Iran and continues to apply pressure to achieve this.

Iraq has taken steps in recent years to develop its natural gas resources and address the deficit in the electricity sector. According to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, the country’s natural gas reserves are approximately 3.714 billion cubic meters.

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MIDDLE EAST

New Syrian constitution draft sparks controversy over Islamic law

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Ahmed Shara, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) administration in Syria, signed a declaration outlining the basic provisions of the interim constitution. The de facto administration in northern Syria, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) which signed an agreement with HTS earlier this week, rejected the articles in the draft constitution, stating that they are “identical to the laws on which the Ba’ath regime is based.”

In a statement made on behalf of the de facto administration, which calls itself the “Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria” under the leadership of the SDG, it was stated, “Months after the fall of the Ba’ath regime and despite the joy of the Syrian people who rebelled against this regime and its oppressive practices, a ‘Draft Constitution’ declaration was published in Damascus.”

The statement claimed that the articles in the draft constitution are “identical to the laws on which the Ba’ath regime is based” and are “far from the reality and diversity of Syria.”

It was stated that the draft constitution excludes the main components of Syria’s national structure, including Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, and other ethnic and religious groups, and that they reject and condemn the draft in its current form.

“This so-called constitutional framework does not reflect the demands of the Syrian people and its various communities,” the statement said. “The Syrian people revolted against such practices, and a return to this outdated approach will further deepen the nation’s wounds.”

The statement continued: “The correct constitution that should be in place is one prepared and agreed upon by all communities. We hope that some exclusive, narrow-minded views and thoughts do not take us back to square one. Only in this way can it serve as the foundation for a sustainable democratic future in Syria.”

An agreement was reached between the HTS administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) on Monday, March 10. The agreement, signed between Ahmed Shara, the leader of the HTS administration, and Mazlum Abdi, the leader of the SDG, envisioned the integration of the SDG into Syrian state institutions.

Yesterday, three days after the agreement with the SDG, Shara signed a 53-article declaration outlining the basic provisions of the interim constitution. According to the declaration, the constitution includes the article, “The religion of the President is Islam, and Islamic law (fiqh) is the main source of legislation.”

The constitution, which envisages a five-year transition period, grants Shara, who is declared the “interim President,” executive power, the authority to appoint one-third of the legislative body, and the power to appoint judges to the constitutional court. Shara will also have the power to declare a state of emergency. Additionally, all political party activities in the country are suspended until the political parties law comes into effect.

According to Anadolu Agency, the highlights of the interim constitutional declaration are as follows:

– Article 1: The Syrian Arab Republic is a fully independent and sovereign state. Its geographical and political unity is indivisible, and no part of it can be relinquished.

– Article 2: The religion of the President is Islam, and Islamic law (fiqh) is the main source of legislation. Freedom of belief is guaranteed. The state respects all heavenly religions and guarantees freedom of worship. However, this freedom must not violate public order.

– Article 6: All citizens have equal rights and obligations before the law. Discrimination based on race, religion, gender, or lineage is prohibited.

– Article 7: The personal status of religious communities is protected and applied in accordance with their beliefs and Sharia. It is regulated within the framework of existing laws.

– Article 8: The state regulates the national economy based on social justice, free competition, and the prevention of monopolies. It supports production sectors, encourages investment, and protects investors to strengthen sustainable development.

– Article 13: The state guarantees freedom of expression, thought, press, publication, and media. These rights are regulated by law to protect public order and respect the rights of others.

– Article 14: The state recognizes the right to political participation and the freedom to form parties based on national foundations. A commission will be formed to prepare the party law, and party activities will be suspended until this law comes into effect.

– Article 15: The state commits to protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms in accordance with international conventions and humanitarian norms.

– Article 16: The state protects the family as the foundation of society and commits to supporting motherhood and childhood.

– Article 17: The state commits to protecting the social status and active role of women and protecting them from all forms of violence and discrimination.

– Article 18: The state commits to protecting children from abuse and mistreatment and ensuring their access to education and health services.

– Article 20: The People’s Assembly is appointed by the President and performs legislative duties until a permanent constitution is adopted and new parliamentary elections are held.

– Article 27: The President is the head of state, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and the highest authority responsible for the administration of the country.

– Article 35: The judiciary is independent. Judges are bound only by law and their conscience.

– Article 36: No crime or punishment can be applied without a legal regulation. Everyone is presumed innocent until proven guilty. Extraordinary courts cannot be established.

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