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Ankara ‘tolerates’ harsh statements of Damascus

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Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavoğlu will go to the United States tomorrow ahead of a meeting between foreign ministers of Turkey and Syria, scheduled at the end of January or the beginning of February within the scope of the Ankara-Damascus normalization process. Regarding Damascus’s accusation of Turkey’s being an “occupier,” AK Party Spokesperson Ömer Çelik stated, “Some radical phrases are uttered, and presumptuous sentences are also uttered, but the line of diplomacy must be kept intact, and the channels of collaboration must be kept intact.”

Efforts continue on the diplomatic front to lead up to a meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Syrian President Bashar Assad. Çavuşoğlu will meet with the foreign ministers of the other two actors in Syria, the United States, and Iran, as part of the normalization process. With Ankara’s request, the Turkish-Syrian dialogue began through Moscow’s mediation and advanced with the meeting of the two countries’ defense ministers. Although the United States declared it is against Turkey’s efforts to thaw ties with Syria, Iran has voiced its support for the normalization between Ankara and Damascus.

Received by Assad in Damascus last Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian will meet with Çavuşoğlu in Ankara. In his meeting with Assad, the Iranian minister said, “any dialogue between Syria and Turkey, if serious, is a positive step for the benefit of both countries and the region.” During the meeting, the Syrian president remarked, “the basis of all the attitudes of the Syrian state is always to protect the interests of the Syrian people, and Syria would not go forward in dialogue with Turkey unless it aims at ending the occupation and halting support for terrorist organizations.” Assad also briefed Putin’s Special Representative for Syria, Aleksandr Lavrentyev, during his time in Damascus, stating that “in order for the meetings with the Turkish side to be fruitful,” it must be based on the end of “the occupation,” i.e., Turkey’s military presence in northern Syria.

“Terrorist groups, not Turkey, pose the threat”

The attitude of Damascus and the expected meeting of the two countries’ foreign ministers were asked last night to the AK Party Deputy Chairman and Spokesperson Ömer Çelik. “Some work on steps with Syria is almost completed,” said Çelik, adding, “When these are finalized, the foreign ministers will meet. I want to say to our interlocutors in Syria, ‘The main threat to them is terrorist organizations. The Republic of Turkey is not a threat to them.’ We defend Syria’s territorial integrity in the strongest possible way. What we desire in Syria is no conflict, no bloodshed, no small terror statelets established by the terrorist organizations, and that the Syrian people see their own future through a political solution within the scope of the constitutional process. It is not Turkey that threatens Syria’s territorial integrity; it is terrorist organizations. Turkey carried out this intervention when those terrorist organizations settled in Syria and began to threaten the national security of the Republic of Turkey. All our interventions are legal. What needs to be done today is: Advance these political negotiations, as well as implement joint mechanisms with Syria to clear Syrian territory of terrorist groups. We have the required experience in this whole process. Some radical phrases are uttered, and presumptuous sentences are also uttered, but the line of diplomacy must be kept intact, and the channels of collaboration must be kept intact. Our will is in that direction. Turkey is not an occupier there.”

“Damascus does not have the means to crush the YPG”

Presidential Spokesperson İbrahim Kalın told a group of international media representatives, in response to a question regarding Damascus’s attitude, that the operation in Syria is possible at any time. Mazloum Kobani, the leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a branch of the PKK/YPG, also stated that they take Turkey’s “threats” seriously. “We expect an attack in February,” he told Amberin Zaman of Al-Monitor and added, “The town of Kobani is a likely target because of its symbolic meaning for Kurds world over. Turkey is heading for elections, and we are aware that President Erdogan wants to rally nationalist support and he appears to believe that attacking Rojava again can serve this purpose.”

“The United States showed itself to be against any military operation by Turkey, but America’s efforts are falling short,” he stated, “they need to do more.” Pointing out that Russia is trying to solve existing problems in Syria by bringing Turkey and the Syrian regime around the same table, Kobani does not believe such attempts can succeed because the Syrian regime will, according to him, never compromise on its own demands, which are Turkey’s withdrawal of all its troops from Syrian soil and that of its support for the armed Sunni opposition groups. Kobani, on the other hand, is confident that the Syrian regime would yield to Turkey’s demands to “crush” the PKK/YPG, for Damascus neither has the means to do this nor are circumstances favorable to any such plans.

Middle East

France explores Syrian transit routes as alternative oil corridor to bypass Strait of Hormuz

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France is evaluating the creation of alternative energy routes through Syria to mitigate potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that Paris is working on new transit routes for the transport of Persian Gulf oil, with Syria emerging as a prominent option in this context.

“Among the initiatives we have pursued since the beginning of this crisis is the concept of preparing alternative routes, in order to avoid remaining dependent on blockages that could occur here or there,” Barrot said.

Barrot indicated that Syria, which has entered a process of reunification following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad administration, could become a “new regional hub.” The French minister characterized the country as a strategic corridor that could transport Persian Gulf oil to the Mediterranean, thereby reducing the impact of potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Stating that France wishes to expand commercial and economic cooperation with the Damascus administration, Barrot expressed that they aim to establish a secure transit route for Gulf producing nations through this cooperation.

According to Barrot, implementing this plan requires a comprehensive assessment of existing infrastructure and the provision of necessary security guarantees. The French minister noted that these efforts are of critical importance for securing global energy markets.

Barrot’s remarks followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus on Tuesday. During the visit, Macron met with Ahmed Shara, the former al-Qaeda leader who has declared himself President of Syria.

Patrick Pouyanné, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of TotalEnergies, was among the delegation accompanying Macron. Characterizing Syria as a country situated “at the crossroads of the Middle East,” Pouyanné said it could establish a vital energy link between Iraq and the Mediterranean.

In response to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has been shipping its oil via tankers through Syria for export since April.

More than 600,000 tons of fuel were exported through this route between April and June. Last month, Iraqi and Syrian officials discussed the reactivation of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline and the establishment of energy transit mechanisms.

TotalEnergies has also signed a memorandum of understanding for an offshore exploration block in the Mediterranean. However, Pouyanné stated that beyond this, the company currently has no concrete projects under development.

Stating that security conditions in the country have not yet stabilized, Pouyanné said, “It is clear today that the security situation does not yet permit us to operate here. However, I believe coming here, to Damascus, is a positive initiative.”

Shortly after Pouyanné’s statements, two bombs reportedly exploded near the Four Seasons Hotel, where the French delegation was staying.

Stating that the Syrian administration must be given time to establish control over the country, Pouyanné said, “We must not demand too much,” adding, “We need to be a little patient.”

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Senior US military officers ignored system alerts on obsolete targets, leading to strike on Iranian school

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Senior US military commanders approved strike lists despite automated system warnings indicating that intelligence on certain targets in Iran was years out of date and required revalidation, according to a CNN report citing three sources familiar with the decision-making process.

The warnings were bypassed to “speed things up” under intense pressure to rapidly designate targets during the opening days of the conflict. One of the targets approved by commanders under these conditions resulted in a strike on a school in Minab.

This military decision is directly linked to the February 28 strike on the Shajara Tayyiba School in Minab, which killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. The heavy loss of life makes the strike one of the mass casualty events involving the highest number of civilian deaths in the recent history of the US military.

According to the sources, automated system warning messages indicating that the intelligence was obsolete were already integrated into the database used during the target development process. Within this system, a target could only be added to a strike list with the approval of a senior officer. Two sources stated that the decision by senior commanders to ignore these warnings directly contributed to the school being targeted “by mistake.”

Military officials reportedly realized within days of the strike on the school that the error stemmed from outdated information. Despite the passage of months, the Pentagon has not released its investigation report on the incident.

A White House official stated that the investigation remains ongoing, asserting, “As we have said before, the US does not target civilians.”

The Pentagon referred inquiries on the matter to US Central Command (CENTCOM), which declined to comment, citing the active investigation.

School and military facility were located within the same compound

The strike reportedly occurred while the US military was targeting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility located near the Shajara Tayyiba School. Initial military investigative findings also pointed to this conclusion.

Satellite imagery reveals negligence in the target analysis process. Imagery from 2013 shows the school and the IRGC base located within the same compound, whereas imagery from 2016 clearly indicates that the school had been separated from the base by a fence and provided with a separate entrance.

In satellite imagery dated December 2025, dozens of children can be seen playing in the schoolyard.

The strike took place on the first day of operations following Donald Trump’s decision to launch military action, a period during which military officials and intelligence analysts worked under intense pressure to update thousands of targets.

Analysts were unable to update all records in the Pentagon database prior to the operation. As a result, records for multiple targets—including the IRGC facility adjacent to the elementary school—consisted of information that was more than 10 years old.

Due to the accelerated timeline, analysts prioritized updating “high-priority” records, which included moving targets with a high probability of being struck first and locations posing an immediate threat to US forces. Because fixed facilities were deemed a lower priority, the information for the facility near the school was not updated.

Disconnected databases and staffing shortages compounded the error

At the center of the investigation are two separate targeting databases used by the Pentagon. These are known as the Modernized Integrated Database (MIDB), which was built in the 1980s and relies on manual data entry, and the Mitigation and Analysis Reporting System (MARS), a new artificial intelligence-backed digital platform.

Both systems indicated that information needed to be updated before use. However, efforts to fully transition to the MARS system were reportedly years behind schedule, leaving official targeting data still dependent on the legacy MIDB system.

An intelligence analyst had previously noted changes on the ground in a separate digital tool, but because this tool was not connected to the official targeting database, the information did not reach commanders. How this disconnect influenced the targeting of the school is also being examined as part of the investigation.

Following the strike, Donald Trump suggested that Iran might be responsible for the incident, later asserting that responsibility might never be determined. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the strike would be thoroughly investigated, claiming that the US takes every possible measure to prevent civilian casualties.

However, due to cuts implemented early in Hegseth’s tenure, Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) teams within CENTCOM were reportedly facing severe staffing shortages.

Under the cuts made by Hegseth prior to the conflict with Iran, the 10-person civilian casualty specialist staff at CENTCOM was reduced to a single full-time employee.

Sources added that while the remaining staff did everything they could, they lacked adequate resources due to the budget and personnel cuts implemented by Hegseth.

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US revokes Iran oil license and launches airstrikes following Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks

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The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has revoked a general license that permitted commercial transactions involving Iranian oil.

According to a statement issued by the agency, the “General License X” regulation, which had been in effect since June 21, 2026, was fully rescinded as of July 7, 2026, and replaced by the newly introduced “General License X1” regulation.

The statement noted that a wind-down period lasting until July 17 has been granted to allow for the completion of transactions initiated prior to the revocation.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted strongly to the OFAC decision, declaring that Tehran will take all necessary measures to protect its national security and interests.

In a statement shared on the ministry’s official Telegram channel, Iran stated: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran decisively condemns the US Department of the Treasury’s decision to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil. This step is a flagrant violation of Article 10 of the memorandum of understanding concerning the cessation of military conflict.”

Following the decision, the US Armed Forces conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian territory during the night of July 8. US officials maintained that the military operation was a response to Tehran’s actions in the region. Washington characterized Iran’s conduct as a violation of the ceasefire regime and a threat to the security of navigation in the region.

The Iranian state broadcaster, IRIB, reported that explosions occurred at various locations across the country. News sources noted that seven explosions were heard near the village of Taherui in the Sirik district, and six explosions were heard near the city of Qeshm.

Previously, US media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and Axios, citing US officials, had reported that despite the active ceasefire, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had attacked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

According to data shared by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a tanker off the coast of Oman was struck by an unidentified munition, causing a fire on board. It was reported that the incident resulted in no casualties, injuries, or environmental pollution.

The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the targeted vessels may have been the “Al Rekayyat,” a tanker owned by the Qatar-based shipping company Nakilat.

The vessel sustained damage to its engine room, though the crew was reported to be safe. Axios reported that while the attacked vessels sustained damage, no major destruction had occurred.

On June 18, 2026, the US and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding that established a two-month ceasefire and envisioned the initiation of negotiations for a more comprehensive agreement.

Following the start of the ceasefire period, the US had also struck targets in Iran on June 27 and June 28, citing Iranian actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following those strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that operations would be launched against US facilities located in Arab countries.

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