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Afghanistan-Iran cross-border tension: Who to blame

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Afghanistan and Iran troops have engaged in heavy cross-border clashes, killing and wounding troops in rapid escalation of tensions over water rights.

At least two Iranian border guards and one Taliban member have lost their lives in the battle and several other people received injuries.

There is no immediate indication of what had provoked the incident, but recently Iran’s leader threatened the Taliban amid tensions between the two countries over water rights.

The deadly clashes happened on the border of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province and southern Afghan province Nirmoz. Authorities from both sides confirmed the clashes had subsided and the two neighbors engaged in talks to ease tensions. Both sides accused each other of firing first.

Spokesman for the Taliban Interior Ministry Abdul Nafi Takor said that Iranian border forces fired toward Afghanistan first, which faced a counter-reaction by the Taliban border forces.

Takor said that the situation is now under control, and the Islamic Emirate does not want to fight with its neighbors, but prevent mentioning the name of Iran.

Iran‘s Deputy Police Chief, Qasem Rezaei blamed Taliban forces for firing first at the Sasoli checkpoint which caused a decisive response. Rezaei charged the Taliban forces for not observing intentional laws and neighborliness.

No room for aggression

A Taliban commander, Abdul Hamid Khorasani called on the Iran leadership not to play with the patience of the people of Afghanistan and the government.

“We are not slaves of the colonialists and we won’t tolerate your aggressions,” Khorasani said, referring to Iran’s border firing toward Afghanistan.

In a message sent to Harici, Khorasani said that the Taliban security forces will not tolerate any kind of “aggression” and warned Iran of a “deadly response” if a single bullet fired toward Afghanistan.

“Our leadership had shown restraint, otherwise we were ready to fight against Iran with more passion and even greater than our fight against the NATO occupiers,” he added.

In a clear word, he said that they will conquer Iran if the leadership in the Islamic Emirate allow them to wage Jihad against Tehran, and also accused Iran of being a good friend to the Western countries.

But, Taliban defense ministry spokesman, Enayatullah Khowarazmi said that Kabul considers dialogue and negotiation to be a reasonable way to address any problem.

He said that blaming games and negative actions is not in the interest of either side.

Iran decisively responses to any aggression

Iran had vowed not to let the Taliban attack stand, and said that its border forces have been alert 24 hours to respond in a harsh way to any cross-border aggression.

Iran’s Police Chief, Ahmadreza Radan said that the border forces will “decisively respond” to any border trespassing and aggression and blamed the Taliban leadership for the border skirmishes.

Iran’s deputy head of the police force, Qassem Rezaee said that the Taliban started shooting with all kinds of weapons at an Iranian police station.

Light and semi-light weapons and artillery were used in the clashes, according to the official Tasnim news agency.

The escalation comes after Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi during his visit to Sistan-Baluchistan on May 18, warned Taliban leadership to give the people of Sistan their water rights.

He also warned the Taliban to take his words “seriously” and called on Kabul to observe Iran‘s water rights under the 1973 treaty. However, the Taliban rejected Raisi’s perceived threat.

Water, the real cause of dispute

Tensions over water rights have risen between Iran and Afghanistan in recent weeks, where Iran accused Afghanistan for blocking the flow of water and called for the release of more water.

Kajaki Dam on the Helmand River, Afghanistan.

The Taliban had repeatedly denied violation of the agreement, and said low water levels on the Helmand River and rejected the preclude of water flows to Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan province.

Iran has been struggling with drought for some 30 years, but has worsened over the past decade, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Meteorological Organization said there is an estimated 97pc of the country that now faces some level of drought.

The Taliban seized Afghanistan in August 2021 as U.S. and NATO troops were in the final weeks of their pullout from the country after 20 years of war.

While not directly accepting the Taliban government, Iran has maintained relations with Afghanistan’s new rulers. Tehran also has called on the Taliban to allow women and girls to go to school.

Diplomacy didn’t work

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had earlier spoken on a phone with his Afghan counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi and asked for the reopening of the gates of the inland Kajaki Dam on the Helmand River, and let the people on both sides be hydrated.

Right after the call, Muttaqi held a meeting with Hassan Kazemi Qom, the Iranian ambassador in Kabul, where they discussed issues of bilateral relations, including water issues.

“The minister of foreign affairs also noted that issues between the two sides can be better resolved through mutual dialog and understanding,” Afghan Foreign Ministry’s deputy spokesman said on Twitter.

Muttaqi had earlier said that Taliban remains committed to the 1973 treaty, but said that drought in Afghanistan and the region should also not be ignored.

Afghanistan has been facing its third year of drought, and has been ranked third on a 2023 emergency watch list issued by the International Rescue Committee.

On May 22, the Taliban foreign ministry called on Iran to prevent talking about water in the media and instead engaged in talks directly with Kabul to find a local solution to the problem.

It was the first deadly clashes between the border forces of Afghanistan and Iran since Taliban took control of the country in 2021.

MIDDLE EAST

‘Turkey-Syria negotiations to be held in Baghdad’

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The Syrian daily al-Watan reports that the first round of talks between Syria and Turkey to normalise bilateral relations will take place in Baghdad.

Turkish and Syrian officials are expected to meet in the Iraqi capital Baghdad to restore diplomatic relations between Syria and Turkey, which were severed more than 12 years ago, after President Erdogan said there was “no reason not to meet with Syria”.

Press TV quoted an unnamed official as saying that the meeting would be the first step in a long process of negotiations leading to a political agreement, al-Watan reported.

According to the sources, Ankara has asked Moscow and Baghdad to pave the way for Turkish diplomats to sit at the negotiating table with the Syrian side without a third party. They also asked that the meetings be closed to the press.

Al-Watan noted that the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement and the initiative to restore diplomatic relations have received wide support from Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Russia, China and Iran.

Mutual statements

President Erdoğan said on Friday: “There is no reason not to re-establish diplomatic relations with Syria. We can do it again as we did in the past. We have no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs. As you know, there is no reason why we should not re-establish diplomatic relations with Mr Assad, as we did in the past, down to family meetings”.

During a meeting with Russia’s special envoy to Syria, Aleksander Lavrentiev, in Damascus on 26 June, Syrian leader Assad said he was open to initiatives to normalise relations with Turkey.

“Syria is open to all attempts to normalise Syrian-Turkish relations on the basis of respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian state and within the framework of the fight against all forms of terrorism,” SANA quoted Assad as saying.

New mediator Iraq

While Turkish-Iraqi relations are developing positively, Baghdad’s mediation role in the normalisation of Turkish-Syrian relations is attracting attention. On 31 May, during a visit to Turkey, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani said that he was working on reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus. Asked if he had spoken to Erdogan or Assad about this issue, Sudani replied: “Certainly, negotiations on this issue are continuing. And God willing, there will be some steps in this regard soon”.

In June, an Iraqi government source told Iraqi media that Baghdad would soon host officials from both countries in Baghdad as part of efforts to reconcile Syria and Turkey.

What happened?

Turkey severed all diplomatic ties with Syria in 2012 following the outbreak of war in 2011 and supported armed opposition groups in the northwest of the country.

Since 2016, Turkish forces have carried out a series of military operations and established a ‘safe zone’ in the north of the country, claiming that terrorist organisations such as PKK-ISIS threaten Turkey’s security.

The normalisation of relations between Ankara and Damascus began on 28 December 2022 with a Russian-mediated meeting between the Turkish and Syrian defence ministers in Moscow, the highest-level meeting between the two sides since 2011.

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Imran Khan accuses Pakistan army chief of cover-up of assassination plot against him

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Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan has stepped up his criticism of Pakistani army chief Asim Munir’s attempt to seize political power from his prison cell, The Intercept reports, citing several sources close to Khan.

The report also contains new allegations about Khan’s history with Munir. According to those in contact with the detained prime minister, Khan is making new allegations that he violated an agreement to remain neutral in Pakistani politics in exchange for accepting Munir’s appointment as army chief.

The deposed prime minister also claims that Munir conspired with his civilian political rivals, including former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, to work against him in exchange for dropping corruption charges that forced Sharif into exile.

According to the report, the escalating personal conflict between Khan and Munir is also an important part of the dialogue. Khan alleges that Munir ordered agents of Pakistan’s notorious Inter-Services Intelligence to kill him, and that the general covered up the assassination attempts by suppressing a police investigation and hiding CCTV footage.

While Khan’s fate remains the biggest unanswered question in the country’s politics, prison communiqués allegedly show that the situation was fuelled by animosity between Khan and Munir.

Khan’s allegations against Munir were shared with The Intercept by a number of sources close to him, who requested anonymity to protect their safety.

The correspondence allegedly includes surveillance footage and other evidence that Munir hatched a plan to have Khan killed in a raucous courtroom on 18 March 2023.

According to sources close to the former prime minister, Khan accused Munir of covering up the plot against him.

Among Khan’s supporters who believe his personal safety is at risk are Pakistani-Americans who recently lobbied Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to contact the Pakistani government about his safety.

As well as accusing Munir of betraying his trust and plotting to kill him, Khan has repeatedly claimed from prison that the general is leading the country towards a repeat of the traumatic partition of 1971.

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Israeli, Arab generals hold secret meeting

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Israeli Chief of Staff Hayzi Halevi met with his counterparts from various Arab armies in Bahrain to discuss regional security cooperation, two sources with direct knowledge of the meeting told Axios.

The meeting, which took place under the auspices of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), was not made public due to sensitivities surrounding the war in Gaza.

The meeting, which took place in Manama on Monday, was attended by CENTCOM commander Michael Erik Kurilla and Halevi, as well as senior generals from Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt.

According to Barak Ravid’s report, the meeting was a sign that military dialogue and cooperation between Israel and the Arab countries continues under the umbrella of CENTCOM, despite harsh public criticism of Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

The IDF and CENTCOM did not comment on the meeting.

CENTCOM and the Pentagon have recently sought to increase air defence cooperation with regional militaries.

The US success in countering Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel on 13 April is seen as a result of this work.

US officials say that cooperation with Israel and Arab countries in the region allows them to gather intelligence and receive early warning of an attack. This cooperation includes the active involvement of Jordan and Saudi Arabia in intercepting missiles and drones that pass through their airspace after being fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq and Yemen, they said.

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