MIDDLE EAST
Afghanistan-Iran cross-border tension: Who to blame

Afghanistan and Iran troops have engaged in heavy cross-border clashes, killing and wounding troops in rapid escalation of tensions over water rights.
At least two Iranian border guards and one Taliban member have lost their lives in the battle and several other people received injuries.
There is no immediate indication of what had provoked the incident, but recently Iran’s leader threatened the Taliban amid tensions between the two countries over water rights.
The deadly clashes happened on the border of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province and southern Afghan province Nirmoz. Authorities from both sides confirmed the clashes had subsided and the two neighbors engaged in talks to ease tensions. Both sides accused each other of firing first.
Spokesman for the Taliban Interior Ministry Abdul Nafi Takor said that Iranian border forces fired toward Afghanistan first, which faced a counter-reaction by the Taliban border forces.
Takor said that the situation is now under control, and the Islamic Emirate does not want to fight with its neighbors, but prevent mentioning the name of Iran.
Iran‘s Deputy Police Chief, Qasem Rezaei blamed Taliban forces for firing first at the Sasoli checkpoint which caused a decisive response. Rezaei charged the Taliban forces for not observing intentional laws and neighborliness.
No room for aggression
A Taliban commander, Abdul Hamid Khorasani called on the Iran leadership not to play with the patience of the people of Afghanistan and the government.
“We are not slaves of the colonialists and we won’t tolerate your aggressions,” Khorasani said, referring to Iran’s border firing toward Afghanistan.
In a message sent to Harici, Khorasani said that the Taliban security forces will not tolerate any kind of “aggression” and warned Iran of a “deadly response” if a single bullet fired toward Afghanistan.
“Our leadership had shown restraint, otherwise we were ready to fight against Iran with more passion and even greater than our fight against the NATO occupiers,” he added.
In a clear word, he said that they will conquer Iran if the leadership in the Islamic Emirate allow them to wage Jihad against Tehran, and also accused Iran of being a good friend to the Western countries.
But, Taliban defense ministry spokesman, Enayatullah Khowarazmi said that Kabul considers dialogue and negotiation to be a reasonable way to address any problem.
He said that blaming games and negative actions is not in the interest of either side.
Iran decisively responses to any aggression
Iran had vowed not to let the Taliban attack stand, and said that its border forces have been alert 24 hours to respond in a harsh way to any cross-border aggression.
Iran’s Police Chief, Ahmadreza Radan said that the border forces will “decisively respond” to any border trespassing and aggression and blamed the Taliban leadership for the border skirmishes.
Iran’s deputy head of the police force, Qassem Rezaee said that the Taliban started shooting with all kinds of weapons at an Iranian police station.
Light and semi-light weapons and artillery were used in the clashes, according to the official Tasnim news agency.
The escalation comes after Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi during his visit to Sistan-Baluchistan on May 18, warned Taliban leadership to give the people of Sistan their water rights.
He also warned the Taliban to take his words “seriously” and called on Kabul to observe Iran‘s water rights under the 1973 treaty. However, the Taliban rejected Raisi’s perceived threat.
Water, the real cause of dispute
Tensions over water rights have risen between Iran and Afghanistan in recent weeks, where Iran accused Afghanistan for blocking the flow of water and called for the release of more water.

Kajaki Dam on the Helmand River, Afghanistan.
The Taliban had repeatedly denied violation of the agreement, and said low water levels on the Helmand River and rejected the preclude of water flows to Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan province.
Iran has been struggling with drought for some 30 years, but has worsened over the past decade, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Meteorological Organization said there is an estimated 97pc of the country that now faces some level of drought.
The Taliban seized Afghanistan in August 2021 as U.S. and NATO troops were in the final weeks of their pullout from the country after 20 years of war.
While not directly accepting the Taliban government, Iran has maintained relations with Afghanistan’s new rulers. Tehran also has called on the Taliban to allow women and girls to go to school.
Diplomacy didn’t work
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had earlier spoken on a phone with his Afghan counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi and asked for the reopening of the gates of the inland Kajaki Dam on the Helmand River, and let the people on both sides be hydrated.
Right after the call, Muttaqi held a meeting with Hassan Kazemi Qom, the Iranian ambassador in Kabul, where they discussed issues of bilateral relations, including water issues.
“The minister of foreign affairs also noted that issues between the two sides can be better resolved through mutual dialog and understanding,” Afghan Foreign Ministry’s deputy spokesman said on Twitter.
Muttaqi had earlier said that Taliban remains committed to the 1973 treaty, but said that drought in Afghanistan and the region should also not be ignored.
Afghanistan has been facing its third year of drought, and has been ranked third on a 2023 emergency watch list issued by the International Rescue Committee.
On May 22, the Taliban foreign ministry called on Iran to prevent talking about water in the media and instead engaged in talks directly with Kabul to find a local solution to the problem.
It was the first deadly clashes between the border forces of Afghanistan and Iran since Taliban took control of the country in 2021.
MIDDLE EAST
Israel bombs Syrian base T4, reportedly warning Türkiye against military presence

Israel bombed the T4 Air Base in Syria, where Türkiye was allegedly planning to establish a military base. An Israeli official stated, “This attack carries a message to Türkiye: ‘Do not establish a military base in Syria’.”
According to Syria’s official news agency SANA, Israeli aircraft conducted more than 14 airstrikes yesterday evening targeting Hama Airport and surrounding points, the T4 Military Air Base in Homs province, and military infrastructure in the capital, Damascus. Additionally, mortar and artillery attacks were carried out west of Deraa province.
A statement from the Israeli army confirmed that a series of airstrikes were executed in Syria. The statement indicated that Israeli warplanes targeted Hama Military Airport, the T4 Military Airport in Syria’s Homs province, and military infrastructure in the Damascus region. It also confirmed targeting a scientific research building in Damascus’s Barzeh neighborhood.
An Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post that the recent airstrikes in Syria were carried out to “convey a message to Türkiye.” The official specified the message was, “Do not establish military bases in Syria and do not interfere with Israeli activities in the country’s skies.”
A report by Middle East Eye (MEE), citing sources knowledgeable on the subject, claimed that Türkiye intended to deploy Turkish-made Hisar-type air defense systems and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with advanced surveillance and strike capabilities to the T4 Air Base.
It had previously been claimed that Ankara was preparing to take control of the T4 Military Air Base near the ancient city of Palmyra, which Israel had struck.
According to the report by Qatar-based Middle East Eye (MEE), citing Turkish military sources, Ankara plans to equip the base with a complex defense system featuring short, medium, and long-range capabilities against warplanes, UAVs, and missiles.
It is also alleged that Türkiye plans to deploy S-400 air defense systems to the base in addition to the Hisar systems. However, Russia’s approval is necessary for the deployment of the S-400s.
The report notes that the base “will provide Türkiye with greater air control in Syria and serve as a starting point for intensified operations against ISIS.” It further states, “The presence of Türkiye’s UAVs and air defense systems will deter Israel from conducting airstrikes in the region.”
The Israeli army had also targeted the T4 and nearby Palmyra bases on March 21-22; those airstrikes damaged infrastructure at the base, including runways, hangars, and control buildings.
MIDDLE EAST
Israel’s reserve crisis deepens amid Gaza plans

As the Israeli army prepares to intensify its attacks in Gaza, the crisis within its reserve forces, considered the “backbone of the army,” is growing.
According to a report in Haaretz, tens of thousands of reserve soldiers are expected to be recalled to duty as Israel prepares to escalate its operations in Gaza. However, army officials report that motivation is declining, and an increasing number of reservists are stating they will not report for duty. Officials indicate that the reasons for this drop in motivation include war fatigue, the lack of clear objectives for the ongoing conflict, and anger towards government policies.
A senior reserve commander informed Haaretz that brigade and battalion commanders are handling numerous cases involving reserve soldiers refusing to report for duty. The most frequently cited reason is the perception that the government is making insufficient efforts to rescue the hostages. This is followed by anger over the proposed law exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service and discontent regarding judicial reform plans.
Another reserve officer reported that soldiers and commanders suffer from severe burnout after serving hundreds of days over the past year. He expressed that they struggle to commit to new missions not only for political reasons but also due to physical and psychological fatigue.
Among those refusing service is combat pilot Alon Gur, who publicly announced his resignation last week after 16 years of service. Declaring his departure from the Air Force, Gur stated on social media, “The line has been crossed,” accusing the government of “prioritizing politics over human life.” After Gur was relieved of duty, other reserve soldiers began taking similar actions, causing significant concern within the army command.
According to Israeli army data, as of February, the reserve participation rate stood at 85%. At the start of the war, however, almost all called-up reservists reported for duty, marking the highest reserve mobilization in Israeli history.
Israel, with its relatively small population, relies on its reserve forces system to sustain the army during prolonged conflicts. This system, which involves recalling individuals who have returned to civilian life after compulsory military service back to active duty when needed, is considered one of the cornerstones of Israel’s security doctrine. This system allows tens of thousands of experienced soldiers to be rapidly deployed to the front lines during times of war or crisis.
MIDDLE EAST
Hamas retains guerrilla capacity and political role in Gaza, says US intelligence

According to the 2025 Threat Assessment Report from the US Intelligence Community, the umbrella organization for 18 separate intelligence agencies, Hamas retains the capacity to sustain low-intensity guerrilla warfare and remains a primary political actor in Gaza. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, noted as weakened post-war, is still described as posing a threat to Israel and the US.
According to a report in Haaretz, the assessment predicted that “tension will persist regarding the situation in Gaza, as well as in the Israel-Hezbollah and Israel-Iran dynamics” and stated that Hamas “will continue to pose a threat to Israel’s security even in its weakened state.”
The report also noted that Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel disrupted the diplomatic progress achieved through the Abraham Accords and the trend toward stability in the Middle East.
Pointing out that Hamas has preserved thousands of its fighters and a significant portion of its underground infrastructure, the report warned that the organization “likely used the ceasefire to bolster its military capacity and replenish ammunition stocks.”
The report stated, “Hamas retains the capacity to reignite low-intensity guerrilla resistance and will remain the dominant political actor in Gaza for the foreseeable future. The low expectations among the parties for a permanent ceasefire and the absence of a post-war political and reconstruction plan point towards instability that could last for years.”
Noting that support for Hamas among Palestinians in the West Bank is higher compared to the Palestinian Authority, the report assessed that “the long-term trajectory of Israeli-Palestinian relations will depend on developments in the increasingly unstable West Bank.”
The report also highlighted that the Palestinian Authority’s capacity to provide security and public services in the West Bank is progressively weakening, emphasizing that Israeli operations in the West Bank, attacks by Jewish settlers, and the activities of Palestinian armed groups, including Hamas, could further deepen the governance crisis.
It added, “A potential leadership change within the Palestinian Authority could exacerbate governance challenges. Furthermore, how Israel will govern post-war Gaza and whether its operations in the West Bank will undermine the Palestinian Authority will also be crucial factors.”
The report also drew attention to the fragile dynamics between Israel and Lebanon, warning that a resumption of large-scale Israeli operations in Lebanon could heighten sectarian tensions, weaken Lebanese security forces, and worsen the humanitarian crisis.
The report concluded, “Despite being weakened, Hezbollah retains the capacity to target Americans and US interests regionally and globally, and even, to a limited extent, on US soil.”
-
EUROPE1 week ago
F-35 debate intensifies across Germany and Europe
-
EUROPE2 weeks ago
Europe plans for US absence in NATO with 5-10 year strategy
-
DIPLOMACY1 week ago
Trump’s proposed fees on Chinese ships threaten US maritime industry
-
AMERICA2 weeks ago
Trump’s tariffs drive Nvidia to invest heavily in US manufacturing
-
EUROPE2 weeks ago
French defense industry gears up for war amid EU strategic autonomy push
-
EUROPE1 week ago
Calls for German nuclear armament grow louder
-
ASIA1 week ago
Beijing’s energy rules threaten Nvidia H20 chip sales in China
-
ASIA2 weeks ago
India shelves $23 billion plan to rival China’s factories