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CSIS report warns US munitions reserves depleted to critical levels following Iran conflict

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The United States faces a critical depletion of its munitions warfare reserves following the conflict with Iran, leaving the Pentagon with strategic vulnerabilities that could take years to rectify, according to a comprehensive report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The study, titled “The Last Rounds? The State of Critical Munitions in the Iran War Ceasefire,” details how high expenditure rates of Tomahawk, Patriot, and other sophisticated missile systems during recent hostilities have strained American arsenals. While CSIS analysts determined the US maintained sufficient stocks to sustain the conflict under reasonable scenarios, they warned that the primary risk lies in the nation’s ability to wage future wars.

Munition stockpiles shifted to war footing

During a 39-day air and missile campaign preceding the ceasefire, US forces heavily utilized the military’s most expensive and advanced systems. According to the report, the US may have exhausted more than 50% of its pre-war inventories for four out of seven categories of critical munitions.

“Returning to pre-war levels for seven types of munitions will take between one and four years as missiles on the production line are delivered,” the report stated. These systems are considered vital not only for Middle Eastern stability but also for potential high-intensity conflict in the Western Pacific.

CSIS analysts argued that the munitions crisis predated the war with Iran but was severely exacerbated by it. The report noted that even prior to the conflict, stockpiles were deemed insufficient for a “peer-level” struggle; this gap has widened, and building reserves appropriate for a potential conflict with China will require additional time.

The dwindling inventory is projected to directly impact US capacity to supply Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) to Ukraine and other allies.

Low-cost alternatives may bolster inventory

Despite shortages in specific categories, the report acknowledged that many other ammunition types remain at acceptable levels. This suggests that the US could continue combat operations even if its most elite missiles are depleted.

The report highlighted that alternatives for land-attack missions are significantly cheaper while providing comparable explosive power. For example, a bomb equipped with a Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guidance kit costs less than $100,000, compared to $2.6 million for a Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM).

While both deliver approximately 450-kilogram payloads with precision, cheaper alternatives have shorter ranges, increasing the risk to launch platforms. The analysis emphasized that air superiority is a prerequisite for the widespread use of these systems, detailing the status and unit costs of JDAM, Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles (JAGM), and Small Diameter Bombs (SDB).

Furthermore, the study noted the growing importance of low-cost interceptors designed to counter unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and cruise missiles.

Deliveries to Japan face potential delays

The CSIS report categorizes seven critical munitions into two groups: long-range land-attack systems and air-and-missile defense systems. Both proved highly effective in combat, leading to the reported high expenditure rates.

The report noted that the Trump administration has announced several industrial agreements to put munitions production on a “war footing.” It observed that the President’s fiscal year 2027 budget request, which includes significant munitions procurement, underscores the “urgency of rebuilding and expanding the inventory.”

However, analysts warned that near-term deliveries are constrained by historically low order volumes. “Even if Congress allocates the requested fiscal year 2027 funds, it will take years for these missiles to be delivered,” the report cautioned.

The international ramifications are significant. Notably, the report mentioned that Japan has been informed that the delivery of 400 Tomahawk missiles may be delayed due to the war with Iran. This delay is seen as a setback for the US position in the Western Pacific as Tokyo builds military capacity to deter China.

Precision Strike Missile inventory nearly exhausted

Long-range precision munitions are considered invaluable for a conflict with China, which possesses robust air defenses and a vast inventory of cruise and ballistic missiles.

The report disclosed that US forces struck over 13,000 targets in the 39 days leading up to the ceasefire. More than 850 Tomahawk missiles were launched in the first month alone, with the total exceeding 1,000 by the time of the truce.

Data regarding the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), a newer system that entered service in 2023, is particularly stark. The report cited one Army official claiming the entire PrSM inventory was expended during the war, though other officials maintain some stock remains. This depletion effectively eliminates the possibility of allies like Ukraine receiving the system in the near future.

THAAD missiles identified as most critical gap

In the air and missile defense category, CSIS examined the SM-3, SM-6, THAAD, and Patriot systems. While vital for the Western Pacific, their high cost and scarcity make them unsuitable for defending against low-cost drones.

The report identified THAAD interceptors as the most critical among the seven systems due to low inventory levels and a lack of alternatives. No THAAD interceptor deliveries have been made since August 2023, and they are not expected to resume until April 2027.

Beyond the missiles themselves, the report warned that the loss or damage of AN/TPY-2 radar systems—which provide targeting data for THAAD—would create a capability gap that is difficult to fill. To date, the US has received only 13 such radar units.

Patriot usage in Middle East impacts Ukraine

The strain on the Patriot system remains a focal point of the report. The current PAC-3 MSE version is used by 18 countries, creating immense global demand. Approximately half of annual production is currently allocated to supporting allies.

Ukraine, a major operator, has received over 600 missiles during its ongoing conflict. While Lockheed Martin plans to increase annual production from 600 to 2,000 units, the US faces difficult choices until that capacity is realized.

The report cited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who noted that “every Patriot fired in the Middle East is one fewer missile available for Ukraine.” This scarcity is reportedly prompting other allies, such as Switzerland, to seek alternative systems.

Delivery timelines exceed four years

The report detailed the industrial challenges of converting budget requests into physical hardware. Historically, production lead times averaged 24 months, but that has extended to 36 months or more as demand outpaces capacity.

When factoring in the production time for a full lot, the total delivery cycle can reach 52 months—more than four years. “Many systems are limited by production capacity, so manufacturing lead times are even longer,” the report stated, though it added an optimistic note that funding initiated by previous administrations is beginning to increase production rates.

LUCAS provides low-cost precision strike capability

Resource constraints have driven the development of cheaper alternatives. The report highlighted the Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Assault Strike (LUCAS) system, which the US military developed by reverse-engineering Iran’s Shahed-136 drone. Costing approximately $35,000, LUCAS has a range of 800 kilometers but carries a small 18-kilogram warhead.

For counter-drone operations, systems like APKWS, Roadrunner, and Coyote are being developed. However, the US still lacks a sufficient volume of inexpensive interceptors. The report noted that the US and Gulf allies have frequently used armed helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft, and air-to-air missiles like the AIM-120—which costs $1 million per unit—to down drones. Analysts emphasized that using a $1 million missile to intercept a cheap drone is not a sustainable long-term solution.

Risk projected for next conflict

CSIS explained that the US was able to sustain the recent war despite depleted stocks because the high expenditure of the first week dropped by more than 80% as Iranian drone and missile attacks subsided. US forces also transitioned from expensive systems to more abundant, cheaper munitions for ground strikes.

Nonetheless, the underlying risk remains. “A war against a capable and peer adversary like China would consume munitions at even higher rates than in this war,” the report warned.

The study concluded that the current administration appears to have adopted the theory that “winning the current war decisively is more important than preserving capacity for a future war that may never happen.” As naval assets return to the Pacific from the Middle East, the report stressed that munitions recovery will be a long-term endeavor requiring “strategic patience and industrial transformation.”

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Israel looks to Latin America as Isaac Accords seek to expand regional partnerships

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As ties between Israel and Latin American countries continue to deepen, the newly launched Isaac Accords are emerging as a framework for expanding cooperation across the region.

The initiative formed the backdrop to a panel discussion on opportunities for Israel in the Western Hemisphere at the 2026 JNS International Policy Summit in Jerusalem on Monday.

The panel, titled “The Coming Isaac Accords: Israel and Latin America,” brought together diplomats and regional experts to discuss developments that could encourage participation in the Isaac Accords, the strategic framework announced in April by Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during Milei’s visit to Israel.

Moderated by JNS correspondent Etgar Lefkovits, the discussion featured Panama’s Ambassador to Israel Ezra Cohen, former US Ambassador to Costa Rica Fitzgerald Haney, and Leah Soibel, founder and CEO of Fuente Latina, which provides Middle East news coverage to Spanish-language media outlets.

Soibel said:

“What we need to understand is that the Isaac Accords have an impact that extends far beyond diplomacy. Twenty percent of the US population is Hispanic. By 2050, that figure is expected to reach 30% of the population. This is the demographic group with the lowest levels of antisemitic sentiment.”

The panel also celebrated the victory of pro-US and pro-Israel candidate Abelardo De La Espriella, who defeated his left-wing rival in Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday.

De La Espriella had made the restoration of relations with Israel and the relocation of his country’s embassy to Jerusalem central elements of his campaign platform.

Cohen said that when he looks at a map of Latin America, only four countries are currently governed by left-wing, anti-Israel administrations.

Referring to an earlier panel discussing what participants described as a bleak future for Jews in Europe, Cohen remarked: “When one window closes, another opens. Come to Latin America.”

Haney argued that “Israel’s friends keep winning” and predicted that “we are going to see a lot more positive developments coming out of Latin America.”

He said a colleague in Colombia had sent him a text message promising: “On August 7 at 5 p.m., we will restore relations with Israel.”

Haney noted that this was the date and time when Colombia’s new president is scheduled to take office and predicted that another announcement regarding the relocation of Colombia’s embassy to Jerusalem would follow.

He described Colombia as the latest in a series of Latin American countries turning toward Israel in pursuit of “shared values, shared prosperity and shared security.”

Haney also said that the Israel Allies Foundation, a pro-Israel advocacy group that works with lawmakers, would bring together representatives from 11 legislative bodies across Latin America in Buenos Aires over the weekend to sign a joint declaration of principles.

He noted that the organisation had successfully worked with Brazil’s legislature despite the position of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whom he described as anti-Israel.

According to Haney, Brazil’s legislature has developed a plan to deepen relations with Israel over the next nine months.

Soibel said that 12 Latin American countries had renewed or strengthened their friendships with Israel and that interest in Israel among Spanish-language content creators, influencers and journalists continues to grow. Her organisation has brought 300 non-Jewish Hispanic journalists to Israel.

The panel also highlighted the launch of a Panama-based Spanish-language edition of JNS. Soibel said the work of pro-Israel organisations remains vital because so few such groups operate in the region, while, in her words, “Iran, Qatar and Hezbollah are conducting propaganda campaigns in Spanish throughout Latin America.”

She continued:

“You could probably count on one hand, perhaps two, the number of organisations and leaders operating across the Spanish-speaking world. That makes this work extraordinarily strategic. Its impact is enormous. Israel and the Jewish people should invest more. There is a large Hispanic-Israeli population in Israel, and many of them were victims of the October 7 attacks. We have stories to tell. What we need now is investment and distribution channels to spread those messages and information.”

The panel concluded on an optimistic note, with participants expressing confidence that Latin America will become an increasingly important pillar of Israel’s global diplomatic strategy in the years ahead.

Milei and Netanyahu launch new accord

Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of the Isaac Accords last Saturday.

The initiative establishes a new strategic framework aimed at strengthening cooperation among Argentina, Israel and like-minded partners across the Western Hemisphere, described as “the descendants of Isaac and nations rooted in the Judeo-Christian tradition,” in defence of freedom and democracy and in the fight against terrorism, antisemitism and drug trafficking.

Participating countries will seek to strengthen coordination against what the agreement describes as terrorist organisations, with particular emphasis on “Iran’s efforts to expand terrorist networks and operational presence throughout the Western Hemisphere.”

The initiative also seeks to promote coordination and alignment in international forums while creating a framework for expanded cooperation in innovation, technology, trade and economic openness.

Speaking alongside Netanyahu at a joint press conference, Milei said:

“We expressed our unwavering support for the United States and Israel in their struggle against terrorism and the Iranian regime, not only because it is the right thing to do, but also because our countries are united through shared suffering.”

Milei referred to the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires and the 1994 attack on the AMIA Jewish community centre.

Although Argentine courts have attributed both attacks to Iran, Tehran has consistently denied any involvement.

Netanyahu praised the Argentine leader for demonstrating what he called “moral clarity” by standing with Israel and said he hoped other Latin American governments would join the Isaac Accords, which both leaders described as being inspired by the Abraham Accords.

The Abraham Accords, brokered by Washington in 2020, triggered a wave of normalisation in Arab-Israeli diplomatic relations.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee attended the signing ceremony and described Milei and Netanyahu as “President Trump’s two closest friends.”

Huckabee added: “I do not think there are two other world leaders whom our president respects as much and with whom he has such a personal relationship.”

During the visit, the two sides also announced the launch of the first direct commercial flights between Buenos Aires and Tel Aviv, scheduled to begin in November.

Milei said the new route would create an “unbreakable bond” between the two countries and reiterated his intention to relocate Argentina’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

“As soon as circumstances permit, we once again reaffirm our commitment to moving the Argentine embassy to Jerusalem,” he said.

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Iran team leaves thank-you message in Los Angeles locker room after World Cup draw

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Iran’s national football team left a message in its locker room at SoFi Stadium, thanking Los Angeles for its hospitality during the World Cup.

The players said they were leaving the city with honor after keeping their hopes of reaching the knockout stage alive with a 0-0 draw against Belgium.

In the handwritten note, published by the Iran Football Federation, the team wrote:

“From the ancient land of Persia thousands of years ago to the civilized Iran of today, the spirit of Iran remains alive and unshaken. Los Angeles, thank you for your hospitality. We arrived in Los Angeles with pride, competed with honor and leave with dignity.”

The note also thanked Iranian supporters who gave their “hearts, voices and souls” to the team throughout its two matches and concluded with a call for peace, respect and friendship among all nations.

Los Angeles hosted both of Iran’s Group G matches, while the team returned to its training base in Tijuana between games.

Iran has been based in Tijuana throughout the tournament and has had to travel back and forth to the United States for matches because of restrictions related to its stay in the country. Entry bans were also imposed on some members of the national team’s coaching staff and officials.

US authorities said the team’s travel arrangements remain under review, while discussions continue over the possible easing of some restrictions.

Iran head coach Emir Ghalenoei has repeatedly criticized the travel restrictions, saying his squad has faced challenges that no other team in the tournament has been required to endure.

After drawing 2-2 with New Zealand in its opening match at SoFi Stadium, Iran will play its final Group G match against Egypt in Seattle.

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Colombia’s de la Espriella claims narrow presidential victory in runoff election

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The first results from Colombia’s presidential runoff election showed that right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, backed by Donald Trump, had narrowly won the vote.

The victory of de la Espriella, who has no prior political experience, signals a fundamental shift in the government’s approach to tackling the country’s long-running internal armed conflict and rising violence.

Throughout the campaign, de la Espriella pledged to intensify military pressure on illegal armed groups, drug trafficking networks and criminal organizations. He succeeded in defeating left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, a close ally of incumbent President Gustavo Petro.

Speaking after the initial results were released, de la Espriella said: “Today marks the beginning of a new era for our country. This era is built on the free and democratic will of millions of citizens who chose to believe in a great, secure, prosperous Colombia full of opportunities.”

Cepeda says he will await official results

According to the preliminary count, with more than 99% of ballots tallied in the runoff election, de la Espriella secured approximately 49.7% of the vote, while Cepeda received 48.7%.

Cepeda, who has not yet conceded defeat, said the preliminary results were neither official nor binding.

“When the official count is completed, the final results are known and the necessary verification procedures are finished, we will recognize the official outcome produced by that process,” Cepeda said.

Reuters reported that the verification process showed very little variation from the preliminary counts recorded during the first round of voting on May 31.

De la Espriella, who grew up in Colombia’s Caribbean region, drew particularly strong support from that part of the country. Addressing a large crowd gathered in the coastal city of Barranquilla after the first results emerged, de la Espriella, who has adopted the nickname “El Tigre” (The Tiger), declared: “Tonight is the beginning of a new story for the nation. Tonight a new era begins, a change of order begins.”

He said he would govern for all Colombians, including those who voted for his opponent, and pledged loyalty to and protection of Colombia’s 1991 constitution.

At celebrations in Barranquilla, supporters wore Colombia’s yellow national football jersey and waved Colombian flags.

With images of de la Espriella projected behind the stage, supporters chanted “Stand firm for the homeland” and “Petro out!” as fireworks lit the sky. Some supporters wore hats bearing the slogan “Make Colombia Great Again,” echoing those worn by supporters of US President Donald Trump.

Trump reacted to the results in a Truth Social post, writing: “BIG won!”

One supporter, Patricia, told reporters: “We are tired of the murders in this country and of this government’s bureaucracy. Now we finally have a president from the coastal region.”

Another supporter said: “We are proud of the Tiger. We hope he transforms the country and, above all, creates a new nation where we will have jobs and greater security.”

Supporters of Cepeda, who narrowly lost the election, also voiced concerns on the streets of Barranquilla.

Catalina La Grande, a student and activist who supports Cepeda, told the BBC: “There is a visible sense of unease in the air. Such a narrow margin worries us because it reflects how divided the country is and the enormous challenges we face in defending democracy, peace and human rights.”

Another young voter backing Cepeda, Maria, said the results showed a divided country but noted that the public had remained peaceful.

“Given the level of polarization we are experiencing, the absence of violence in the streets is a positive development,” she said.

The sharp divisions between the candidates have fueled concerns that unrest could emerge if some opposition groups refuse to accept the outcome.

Late on Sunday night, clashes were reported between protesters and police in Cali, Colombia’s third-largest city. Demonstrators reportedly burned US flags, while police used tear gas to disperse large crowds angered by de la Espriella’s victory.

President Gustavo Petro is also reported to be considering challenging the result. In a post on X, Petro said that based on the preliminary count, “no one can be declared president” and alleged that the security of some polling stations had been compromised. He called for an audit of the voting software but provided no evidence to support the claims.

Who is Abelardo de la Espriella?

De la Espriella, who has no political background, is a lawyer and businessman. During his legal career, he represented clients including Alex Saab, an ally of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro who has faced money laundering charges in the US, and David Murcia Guzman, one of Colombia’s most notorious fraudsters.

De la Espriella says he handled those cases in his capacity as a defense attorney.

Often compared to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele because of his security policies and distinctive beard, de la Espriella and his supporters frequently wear Colombia’s national football jersey at rallies and on social media. Critics accuse him of politicizing the national team shirt.

He is also known for regularly addressing campaign crowds from behind bulletproof glass panels.

Colombia’s internal armed conflict has persisted for decades, but violence has intensified in recent years. Armed groups and criminal organizations, including dissident factions of the FARC, the ELN and the Clan del Golfo, have doubled their membership over the past five years.

Competition for control of lucrative cocaine trafficking routes and illegal mining operations has further escalated the violence. Fighting along the Colombia-Venezuela border last year displaced tens of thousands of people. Cocaine production in the world’s largest cocaine-producing country has reached record levels.

Critics of President Petro argue that his “total peace” strategy, which prioritizes negotiations with armed groups, has failed, claiming that such groups have used ceasefire arrangements to expand their territorial control and influence.

De la Espriella has pledged to cancel all negotiations with illegal armed groups and increase military pressure to restore order.

As part of that agenda, he has promised closer cooperation with the US, the construction of massive prisons in Colombia’s forests, a smaller state apparatus and reforms to the healthcare system.

Having lived and worked in Miami for many years, de la Espriella has held US citizenship since 2023. During the election campaign, he received support from Donald Trump, who said de la Espriella would “stop illegal migration, fight crime and drugs, and restore law and order.”

Before the election, Trump also said de la Espriella would feel “the full support and strength of the United States” behind him.

Although Colombia has historically been one of Washington’s closest allies in the region, relations have become strained in recent years due to sharp disagreements between President Trump and President Petro over migration policy, tariffs and military intervention in Latin America.

De la Espriella’s election also aligns with a broader trend across Latin America, where security concerns have pushed politics to the right. His victory was welcomed by other conservative leaders across the region.

Argentine President Javier Milei said Colombians had “chosen the path of economic freedom, prosperity and uncompromising security” and had declared that enough was enough to transnational organized crime and drug trafficking.

Chile’s José Antonio Kast said: “A new era of freedom is beginning for Colombia, one that will allow the country to regain security and prosperity.”

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