INTERVIEW
‘F-16 issue linked to Sweden’s NATO membership’
Published
on
Richard Outzen is a retired US colonel who served on the US State Department’s Policy Planning Team and as an advisor to several secretaries of state.
Outzen served as both a military and civilian advisor to the US State Department between 2016 and 2021, working in the Office of Policy Planning and later in the Office of the Special Envoy for Syria. From 2013 to 2016, he was a faculty member at the National Defense University (NDU) and the Institute for National Security Studies. From 2014 to 2015, he was the US defense attaché in Kabul. He previously served as deputy chief of staff for training and development for the US Security Coordinator in Jerusalem. He has published extensive research on policy and strategy issues, with a focus on the Middle East and Central Asia.
Currently a geopolitical advisor to leading US think tanks such as the Atlantic Council, Outzen, who speaks Turkish, Arabic, Hebrew and German, has over thirty years of active military service, held various command, staff and liaison positions, and spent ten years in the Middle East, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Outzen answered our questions on Turkey-US relations, Turkey’s position in NATO and the Russia-Ukraine war.
‘Turkey’s demands for Sweden’s membership are reasonable and appropriate’
A trilateral meeting between Turkey, Sweden and Finland took place recently. After the meeting, President Erdoğan said that “we are not very warm” to Sweden’s NATO membership. Do you think this opinion will change before the NATO summit in Lithuania next month? How will NATO and the US react if it doesn’t change?
I do not see a great chance for a change. What actions Sweden takes are important. They had some legal problems. It can be said that there is a weakness in Swedish law against terrorism. For them, being a member of a terrorist organization was not a serious crime. These constitutional problems changed at the end of 2022. In the past, if a person did not actually commit an act of terrorism, it was not a crime. It was not even a crime to make propaganda and recruit members, let alone to be a member. This allowed the PKK, an international terrorist organization, to demonstrate and expand its influence in Sweden. Turkey would naturally not be in favor of such a situation. The amendment to this law only came into force on June 1st. So far, it is known that they will extradite one terrorist offender, and he is known for crimes such as drugs as well as PKK affiliation. But this is only one step.
Turkey is waiting for more important steps. It wants the organization’s money collection and recruitment methods to be prevented. I think this is a reasonable and appropriate request. After all, NATO membership comes with many obligations. If Sweden is attacked one day, Turkey will have to defend Sweden. Therefore, Sweden should take the PKK, Turkey’s number one national security problem, seriously. This is a very reasonable request. So I do not think there will be a major change happening within a month. I do not expect it to be in time for Vilnius. I know that we (the US) will be disappointed here too. After all, we are trying to grow NATO against the Russian threat. Both aspirations are good and reasonable, but the timing is not good.
That’s why I do not think the US will react with threatening language and sanctions. This is not going to speed up the process in any way. Turkey has shown that it will not give up its national interests through sanctions. My guess is that it will go on like this for another 3-4 months. Sweden will continue to implement its new laws. If Turkey is satisfied, they will be able to join NATO, just like Finland. We should not expect this to happen quickly.
‘They will not give F-16 approval until they see Sweden’s NATO membership’
As you know, the F-16 and modernization kit negotiations between Turkey and the US are ongoing. The Biden administration has also expressed its positive opinion on this issue, but the decision also needs to be approved by the Congress. How do you think Turkey’s position and policies on Sweden will affect the F-16 decision? Does the purchase of F-16s depend on Sweden’s membership?
It depends. It should not depend, but unfortunately it does. The place of Congress in our system is very important when it comes to arms deals. Especially in committee on foreign affairs, there are four senior congressmen. If even one of them objects, there will be a delay. The president could force a vote as per his wishes, but that would not go down well with his own party. That’s why Biden will start his rounds of persuasion. One of the people he has to convince is Senator Menendez. Menendez has said that he will not give his approval until he sees Sweden’s NATO membership. If the Swedish issue is to drag on, so is the F-16. This is very upsetting. I personally support Turkey getting the F-16s. After all, this is a matter of domestic politics. The Democrats want to see Sweden in NATO and they do not care much about the PKK. Of course, there are also anti-Turkey people in the congress. They are disturbed by the strengthening of Turkey. Of course, this is not a new issue. During the 1974 peace operation, the congress was also annoyed and imposed embargoes. We stopped selling anything to Turkey for 5-6 years. At that time, Turkey’s defense industry was not very mature. It became a bigger problem for Turkey. In fact, this played a big role in the development of defense investments in Turkey. In order not to be in a dependent role like then, the Turks reinforced their defense industry. The F-16 issue is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, but Turkey has other options, such as its own defense industry or other partners.
‘The US will not react to an operation west of the Euphrates’
Turkey’s operations in Syria in the past years were severely criticized in the West. For the last year, there has been talk of a new operation against PKK-YPG terrorist units in Syria. The sanctions imposed on Russia after the Ukraine war failed to achieve what was expected. Would a possible Turkish operation open the door to similar sanctions?
This sanctions issue is very popular in the US. How effectively it works is open to debate. In such a possible operation, the region picked is very important. Most of our troops are in the northeast of Syria. We have troops in places like Kobani or Qamishli.
The places President Erdoğan mentioned are in the west of the Euphrates. There are no US troops in areas like Tel Rifaat or Manbij. The YPG units there have no such mission as fighting against ISIS. They occupy the region with the support of Assad, the Russians and the Iranians. These are Sunni-majority areas. I do not think that a small-scale operation will cause a big reaction. Nevertheless, one has to be careful, two allies like Turkey and the US should not confront each other.
‘White House will be pragmatic about the election results in Turkey’
Biden made remarks that he would support the opposition in Turkey during the 2020 election. With these statements, we observed that the tension between Biden and President Erdogan increased. How do you think the Turkish-American relations will be affected by the fact that Erdogan won again in the elections and will remain in the government for another 5 years?
Early indications are that the White House will be pragmatic. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan gave an interview. When asked, “Does the anti-Americanism in the Turkish election campaigns bother you?” Sullivan said, “Turkey is a democracy. There is always anti-Americanism in Turkish elections. But that has not hindered our relationship to date. There is a lot of work to do with Turkey, from Ukraine to Syria. We will approach it in a constructive way.” This is very interesting because Turkey was not invited to the Democracy meetings in 2021 and 2022. This was to emphasize that Turkey is not a democratic country. But now the National Security Advisor says that Turkey is a democracy. He did not say conditional democracy, he did not say authoritarian democracy. He directly called it a democracy. This is a positive sign. The White House gave the message that “OK, we did not get what we wanted, but we continue to work together”.
‘The US is not very even-handed on the Turkey-Greece issue’
It would not be surprising to say that Turkey-Greece relations have become increasingly tense in recent years. Recently, the US military bases on the Turkish border have added to these tensions. Especially in the Turkish media, the claim that these build-ups are against Turkey rather than Russia has been widely voiced. What do you think?
As an American, I want NATO to be strong. That includes both Greece and Turkey. This kind of build-up is never against allies. Of course, I understand Turkey’s concerns. The US is not very even-handed on the Turkey-Greece issue. For example, Mitsotakis can make a speech in front of the congress, but Turkey cannot. So I understand the concerns, but I do not think this is an intimidation against Turkey. There is also a financial reason for the military bases in Greece. The maintenance costs are lower compared to bases in Germany. This will never be a move against Turkey.
The tension between Mitsotakis and Erdoğan was beneficial for both sides on the eve of the elections. Both leaders gained comfort for 4-5 years. From now on, tensions will continue but ease a little bit. The problems between Turkey and Greece are not huge. There are no issues that cannot be solved. All problems can be solved in secluded meetings.
Of course, Greek friends say that this tension does not bother them. They receive “gifts” from the West thanks to the tension. They are upgrading their equipment. As the big brother, the US should promote peace and act in a balanced way.
‘A rupture in areas like Mariupol may encourage the Russians to come to the table’
Ukraine started an offensive after being equipped by the West. Western countries have invested heavily in this offensive. However, the first week of the offensive tells us that no major progress has been made and, moreover, serious losses have been suffered. According to many experts, there will be no serious territorial change in the next year. US Chief of Staff Mark Milley has also said that “we do not expect any major change”. There are even such comments that the war may last not years but decades. How do you assess the course of the war?
General Milley also said “Kyiv will fall in three days”. High rank does not always mean good sense of prediction. War is a very complex and difficult process. It is difficult to predict how an operation will develop in advance. But we know that there are serious weaknesses in the Russian army. They have not been able to successfully conclude their offensive. Yes, Bakhmut was taken, but no further progress was made, moreover, serious losses were suffered.
The Ukrainian offensive has not yet matured. For now, they are launching minor offensives to find weak points. In this way, they expect the Russians to shift their reserves. Ukraine has heavy armored brigades set up for the offensive. These brigades are equipped by the West. We have not yet seen the main force of the offensive on the ground. It will not take long, within a week or ten days, they will find a weak point and try their luck. Then we will see if there is going to be any results. I agree that this war may take a long time, especially the cleansing of Crimea from the Russians. But war is full of surprises. A breakthrough in areas like Melitopol and Mariupol could turn the tide. Maybe then the Russians will be encouraged to come to the table. The Russians made such a mistake in the World Wars. They left a serious force in front but weakened the flanks. As the Germans quickly surrounded them, the Russians were unable to withdraw their troops, leading to the capture of about 200-300 thousand Russian soldiers. Of course, due to the scale of the war, this would not be the case now. If Ukraine can exploit a weakness, there could be a collapse.
But what if it doesn’t? If the offensive fails, how long can Western countries maintain their support? Or would they want to?
I think this is the biggest surprise of the war. Putin thought that the West would give up and leave Ukraine alone, but he was wrong. Because the West thinks that if Russia succeeds, this war will not be the last strike against Ukraine. Almost all NATO countries will continue to help Ukraine. A Russian victory would also be a disaster for Turkey. If Russia wipes Ukraine off the map, Turkey will be in a very difficult situation in the Black Sea. Yes, maybe Russia can continue this war for 10 years. But we can continue to support it for at least one or two more years.
‘China will not repeat US mistakes in the Middle East’
You know, in the last few months, China has strongly penetrated into the Middle East. The winds of diplomacy started to blow between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who have been at war for a long time over Yemen. We saw this period as a time in which US influence in the Middle East was waning, but China’s influence was growing. How do you see the new balances in the Middle East? How do you evaluate the thirty years the US has spent in the Middle East?
The US made huge mistakes for thirty years. In the 90s, there was an attempt to do good. After the Cold War, there was an expectation to do good all over the world. The intention was to bring prosperity and democracy. We focused on peace between Palestine and Israel. We wanted to remove dictators. But it did not happen. Even if we were very powerful, we could not manage such a complicated region. We did not try to build an empire like the classic British. Our people did not want to colonize these countries or even give them money. We got tired easily, and frankly, many mistakes were made. From Iraq to Libya, there were many mistakes. And the people of the United States said, “We cannot do it” and demanded withdrawal.
China, I think, will not repeat these mistakes. They have no desire to rule the region. They buy oil from both Saudi Arabia and Iran. They think that in order for the oil to reach them without problems, two countries should not fight. It’s more like a commercial deal. So, what they want is only order.
“Multipolarity” is much discussed at this time. If China tries to control the region, they cannot do it either. The US is also not so keen anymore. It is planning to get out of the Middle East and shift its influence to Asia.
Multipolarity is a good thing for this region since there are various powerhouses in the region such as Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Let them get along with each other. We cannot influence everything from outside. It is good that there is a dialog between these countries, which is happening now. Everyone should start talking to each other. For example, as Turkey you are now talking to Egypt as well. I think it is a good and normal thing that the countries in the region are filling the vacuum left by the US.
You may like
-
Slovak PM Fico makes surprise visit to the Kremlin
-
‘China will be the primary international issue for the second Trump term’
-
Germany’s new strategy: ‘Restructuring the country with a focus on defense’
-
Polish PM Tusk denies plans for European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine
-
NATO’s European members discuss raising defense spending target to 3%
-
On the brink of war or a new renaissance? Highlights from the Schiller Institute’s 40th anniversary
INTERVIEW
‘What we need from HTS is not to interfere in Lebanon’s internal affairs’
Published
2 days agoon
22/12/2024Ziad Makary, Minister of Information of Lebanon spoke to Harici: “What we need from HTS is not to interfere in Lebanon’s internal problems or affairs.”
After two months of intense and destructive fighting, Israel and Lebanon have reached a ceasefire. Within 60 days, the ceasefire was to be implemented. According to the agreement, Israeli troops will withdraw from the designated areas, the Lebanese Army will deploy in the areas vacated by Israel and ensure security. A large-scale reconstruction work will be carried out due to mines, unexploded ordnance and destruction of infrastructure in the region. United Nations UNIFIL forces will maintain a presence in southern Lebanon in accordance with UN resolution 1701.
However, Israel has violated the ceasefire more than 100 times so far, which is considered unacceptable by Lebanon. Lebanese Information Minister Ziad Makary answered Dr Esra Karahindiba’s questions on the latest situation in Lebanon.
I would like to start with the latest situation in Lebanon. Even though there is a temporary ceasefire, Israel is not implementing what was promised. Can you tell us about the latest situations, and I’ll ask my other questions?
Well, as you know, we had a deadly war for about two months. As a government, we negotiated a ceasefire for long weeks, and in the end, with the help of the Americans, we reached an agreement to have a ceasefire and to implement it 60 days after the announcement.
In the meantime, there is a military plan: the Lebanese Army will start deploying where the Israelis will withdraw.
There is a lot of work to do. The army will handle this mission because there are many mines, unexploded munitions, destruction, closed roads, displaced people, and a sensitive military situation between Israel and Lebanon.
Israel has violated this ceasefire more than 100 times, and this is, of course, unacceptable. Lebanon is respecting the ceasefire, and we count on the committee formed when the ceasefire was announced.
I am talking about the Americans, French, Lebanese, UNIFIL, and Israelis. Their first meeting was held this week on Monday, and we hope this ceasefire will be implemented seriously as soon as possible because we have a lot to rebuild after the destruction we faced from Israel.
If Israel cancels the ceasefire and continues attacking Lebanon as it did recently, what is Lebanon’s current position? Hezbollah is stepping back from Syria. Maybe more of their troops will return to Lebanon. What about Lebanon’s own army?
I don’t think this ceasefire will be broken. We will have incidents daily, but I believe it will be a serious ceasefire.
I suppose we will have a complete withdrawal in about 40 days from all Lebanese territory. The Lebanese Army will deploy its forces, and we will apply 1701 as required, including southern Lebanon.
Of course, this especially applies to southern Lebanon because 1701 states that weapons are forbidden in southern Lebanon, and the only weapons will be with the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL.
What do you think about the latest situation in Syria? Now Bashar Assad has gone to Russia, and there is a so-called interim government trying to prepare for a transition period. Hezbollah is back. Iran is stepping back. There are no more Russian soldiers, and now a group called HTS is a candidate to shape Syria’s future. What will Lebanon’s position be toward Syria?
So far, we don’t have any relationship with HTS. What I would like to say is that the people of Syria must choose whoever will rule Syria.
What we want in Lebanon is to have good relations with the future government of Syria because we have many interests. We don’t need a fanatic government there.
We need a neighbor who respects Lebanon’s sovereignty and diversity. This is all what we need.
We will do everything to maintain the necessary relationships to continue ties between our countries as neighbors. We have a lot of interests in the economy, trade, social, political, and even border issues to resolve.
We have millions of Syrian refugees and many problems that need solving with whoever rules Syria. We don’t and should not interfere in Syria’s affairs and at the same time we will not let them interfere to us, too.
I hope and will work to ensure a decent and fruitful cooperation with the future Syrian government.
HTS is on the terrorist group list of the United Nations, and several countries have designated this group as terrorist. But in the near future, things may change. Turkey has appointed a charge daffairs for its embassy to continue diplomatic relations.
What will Lebanon’s position be? Do you consider HTS a terrorist group, or are things changing as they lead the country toward elections?
We don’t have a system of considering groups as terrorists or not. I already mentioned that we will assess the aims of Syria’s future government. What we need from HTS is not to interfere in Lebanon’s internal problems or affairs. Till now, as I told you, we are not the only country that cannot predict how the future of Syria will unfold.
The system theoretically should continue. We are continuing to deal with what we have—for instance, the embassy of Syria in Lebanon, the borders, and other matters. We are waiting for the new state, the new administration, and the new government to emerge, and we will proceed from there.
Will you run your diplomatic mission in Damascus?
Currently, it is not active due to everything that has happened. We will wait, but we hope to have good relations with whatever government emerges because it is in both countries’ interests. After Assad’s departure, Israel has invaded more of the Golan Heights. What is Israel’s position in the region? Many believe their presence may not be temporary.
For Lebanon, it is essential that Israel withdraws from the territory it has conquered. As you said, Israel is not only in the Golan Heights or southern Syria but has also destroyed Syria’s army, air and naval forces, and everything.
This puts Syria in a difficult position. We don’t know what kind of army or security forces the new Syrian government will have or how they will deal with Israel. Everything is unclear now. It’s been just five or six days since all this happened, and we need time to see how things settle down.
One question about Lebanon’s internal politics. After the port blast, you had difficult times with economic problems, and the presidential issue is still ongoing. How did it affect the current situation?
The system in Lebanon is not designed to facilitate such processes. It’s a complex system involving parliament, religion, political groups, and more, making electing a president challenging. It is not easy to elect a president because of our law which is causing things happen late, especially the elecion of president. However, we have a session on January 9, and we hope to have a president soon. We cannot rule a country without a president. Yes, we can manage it; it will continue, it won’t die, it won’t vanish, and it won’t disappear. But it also won’t have prosperity. We cannot develop our country, we cannot build it, and we cannot establish a new, modern administration that reflects the aspirations of young Lebanese people those who are ambitious and want to create a modern country with the protection of freedom and the beautiful Lebanese culture, along with the admirable image of Lebanon.
We hope to have a president, a new government, and renewed relations with Syria, as well as a ceasefire with Israel. In the long run, personally, I am somewhat optimistic about what will happen to Lebanon.
Last question: Do you think remaining without a president during this period makes it harder for Lebanon to address these challenges?
Of course, it has a serious impact. As a caretaker government, we cannot make major decisions, recruit new talent, or pass laws. The system cannot function without a president. We are losing talented young people who are leaving Lebanon, which is not in our interest.
INTERVIEW
‘China will be the primary international issue for the second Trump term’
Published
6 days agoon
18/12/2024Guy B. Roberts, one of the most influential figures in the Trump administration, former Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Deputy Secretary General at NATO, spoke to Harici: “China will be, I think, the primary international issue for the United States. The various statements by the leadership in China indicate that there will continue to be a strong push to fully integrate Taiwan within the Chinese political structure. I think that will be one of the big challenges in the first year of the Trump administration.”
Under former President Donald Trump, Guy B. Roberts served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs and was former Deputy Secretary General at NATO for weapons of mass destruction defense.
Guy B. Roberts answered Dr. Esra Karahindiba’s questions on the expectations for the second Trump term in terms of foreign and domestic policy.
I know that you have been closely working with Donald Trump in his previous cabinet as you were Assistant Deputy Secretary of Defense. You know how his policies were before, and you may foresee how it’s going to continue from January. What is your primary expectation at this point?
Well, it’s actually quite exciting because I think that President Trump has really made it clear that he intends to follow through on all of his campaign promises. He’ll likely focus almost immediately on the immigration issue—the illegal immigration into the United States—and also on revamping the tax structure to maximize tax reductions for middle-class Americans.
On the international side, I fully expect him to put pressure on allies and partners to do more for their defense and meet the commitments they’ve made regarding spending 2% or more of their GDP on defense. That was a key element in his first administration, and I actually was with him at NATO headquarters, where we talked at length about the need for our allies to step up. Once he gets his team in place, I see those things being critical upfront. Of course, the U.S. system is such that it’ll take probably six months before that happens.
Let’s talk about Ukraine. Trump promised to end the Ukraine war, stating he could do so in 24 hours. His aides continue to repeat this claim today. Considering the war is taking a negative turn for Ukraine in recent months, will Trump be able to bring peace to Ukraine? Also, do you think Russian President Vladimir Putin will accept a ceasefire or a peace deal?
That’s the real challenge. I think it’s unrealistic to expect that he can resolve this in 24 hours, as President Trump claims. It’s much more complicated than that. However, I do think he will engage directly with President Putin. I can see that happening, where he’ll pressure Putin to agree to a ceasefire and take steps toward resolving this issue.
Ukraine may not be enthusiastic about giving up territory, but I do think that given the situation in the situation such as the introduction of new weapons systems, the recent intermediate ballistic missiles that Russians fired on Ukraine, Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk region of Russia can set the stage for quid pro quo type of negotiation where each side gives up something at least at the beginning in return for a ceasefire. Peace, I believe, is going to take much longer than 24 hours.
President Biden, nearing the end of his term, has made some significant moves that could complicate things for Trump. For instance, he signed a bill allowing Ukraine to use U.S.-made long-range missiles against Russia. Secondly, he sanctioned Gazprombank, which is crucial for Russian international money transfers and energy trade. Several other banks are placed in sanction list. What is Biden trying to do just before leaving his post? Is he leaving some bombs in the hands of Trump?
I believe that’s certainly in the back of his mind. He’s setting the stage for successful negotiations, whether he wants to give Trump the credit or not. His administration will probably deny that. I do think that given the kinds of things the long-range fires that he’s now authorized in, the additional increases in military hardware that he’s agreed to and his encouragement by other allies to do the same, is helping and will help in arriving at a successful ceasefire negotiation.
About Trump’s upcoming second term presidency, European leaders were not really enthusiastic and they’re not happy. Some of them are not happy that president-elect Trump is going to return to White House. What kind of reorganization do you anticipate from Europe to a new Trump era? From an alliance standpoint, the Secretary General Rutte has been a very enthusiastic supporter and a campaigner, if you will, just like his predecessor, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to see that the Allies do more. I think overall they have been doing more. I mean, we’ve had, I believe, over 21 countries now meeting the 2% military spending on GDP, and the others are on the road to doing so. The newer allies, like Finland and Sweden, have shown very robust spending on defense and training, even to the point of producing manuals for the population to undertake certain activities in the event there should actually be a war. That, I think, has deterrence value. The message being sent by the alliance is that we are an alliance, and that if you cross that line and attack any of us, you have to face all of us. Likewise, we have seen in the Indo-Pasific region reaching out to building a coalition with partners in the region including of course Australia and New Zealand but also Vietnam. We just recently sold them some training jets and other countries as well. The Trump Administration will probably be less focused on Alliance building and more focused on one-on-one relationships that are self-supporting in terms of defense. That might be a shift in what we’ll see happening between the Trump and Biden administrations.
You mean that Trump will prefer a personal diplomacy instead of a corporate diplomacy.
Yes, I think whereas Biden administration has been building coalition for example we have The Five Eyes, a group of countries reaching out to build a new interconnected relationship very similar to similar actually to what was attempted back in the late 50s and early 60s of something called SETO, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization which was tried to mimic the NATO alliance. For a variety of reasons SETO didn’t work out and it fell apart.
But now that be in light of the Chinese aggressive behavior and it’s claims over the South China Sea and other areas, its belligerency against Taiwan and its refusal to agree to or accept the opinions by the international court of justice on the law of sea claims, the Hostile relationship they’ve had with the Philippines, so outlining islands all of that makes that particular region a potential hotspot. The recognition that the only way that there’s going to be an ability to stop and deter China from continuing and acting in that way is to build these relationships. And I think you’ll see a lot of enthusiasm for doing so.
Talking about personal diplomacy and personal relationships how would you describe a potential relationship between Trump and Xi Jinping, Trump and Macron, Trump and President Erdogan?
That’s a very important area, and I’m not sure exactly how the Trump Administration is going to proceed. However, I believe that President Trump places a lot of value on personal relationships with national leaders. That’s why I think he’s more comfortable and will be more comfortable building one-on-one relationships as opposed to forming large partnerships.
I would expect to see much more of this one-on-one approach, with Trump meeting with various presidents and prime ministers throughout the region that he considers key to establishing strategic stability, whether it be in Southeast Asia, the alliance partnership, the Mediterranean, or elsewhere. I think we can expect him to be much more proactive in building personal relationships than we saw in the Biden Administration.
Okay, talking about Trump and Erdoğan, and the cooperation and challenges between the US and Turkey, let’s discuss that a bit. Especially the PYD issue, which is a significant issue for Turkey. The US is trying to beat one terror group by using another, particularly as Turkey is a NATO ally but the US still ignores regarding Ankara’s concerns about the PYD. That’s Turkey’s number one issue.
What do you think about the F-35 issue? Could Turkey rejoin the F-35 program? What do you think about those main issues? And finally, how do you see Turkey’s role as a facilitator in the Middle East, especially in bringing peace to Palestine and ending the war with Israel?
Well, you have just asked me a question that could take the entire day to answer.
Looking at the relationship with Turkey and its leadership, I believe Turkey is a critical partner in ensuring peace and stability in the region. At the same time, there is a lot of turmoil. One major issue is the apparent strengthening of Turkey’s relationships with Russia and China in term long term, which is inconsistent with NATO’s position on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Iran’s support for Russia by providing drones and missiles that we’ve already seen used on the battlefield. There’s also significant political turmoil within Turkey at the moment, you know better than I. One unresolved issue is what to do with the two million displaced people as a result of various wars in the region. I think President Trump would be very interested in meeting with Erdoğan to discuss resolving the Syria problem. Trump is likely looking for an exit strategy that would allow US forces to leave that particular area of the Middle East. During the campaign, he referred to such areas as “Forever Wars”, where the US is militarily involved in various regions globally. Regarding Hamas, Hezbollah, and other terrorist groups, those are major challenges. I was very hopeful that the Abraham Accords would be the approach that the whole region would take. This, again, was a Trump initiative during his first administration, involving countries like Israel, the UAE, Sudan, and I believe Morocco. They signed a peace treaty in which they promised to work together to develop economically, scientifically, and in engineering, as well as to maintain and create an environment for peace and security in the region, free from terrorist activities and hatred that have plagued the past several decades. To the point where I saw a country like Saudi Arabia even considering joining this process, it is now all on hold as a result of the Hamas attack on Israel and the response by Israel, which many people consider far excessive to what had happened.
It’s really interesting. I interviewed you in Ankara before, as you may remember. It was a one-hour interview, and we discussed this topic. I don’t want to repeat the same thing; perhaps our audience can watch that episode again. But again, like all the Western discourse, they repeat the same thing as if everything started with the Hamas attack on October 7th. Nobody talks about what has been happening since 1948. Okay, I’m the moderator and the presenter but I want to contribute to this discussion. I really don’t understand why, if the US government is willing to make peace in the region with the Abraham Accords and bring everyone together for a peaceful period, the US does not address Palestine’s need for freedom according to UN resolutions. Under these oppressions since 1948, Palestine has not been given that freedom. The two-state solution is still pending. How many people were injured or killed on October 7? I don’t know the exact number. But now, according to international organizations’ reports, almost 100,000 people have died in Gaza, including those in the West Bank. The West Bank is still witnessing numerous settlements. What do settlements mean? They are taking people’s lands and homes, creating a situation where peace cannot exist. Why doesn’t the US push Israel to implement the two-state solution to bring peace to the Middle East?
Well, that’s a very good question and needs to be addressed. The challenge is that I wouldn’t go back to 1948; I’d go back to 1917 and the Balfour Declaration, which created the environment we are in today. That declaration guaranteed a Jewish homeland. The problem is that you’ve got groups like Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and others with charters stating that their goal is to exterminate Israel. When that’s a primary goal, it’s very difficult to sit across the table and negotiate a peace agreement. If we got beyond that and all players in the region agreed to Israel’s right to exist, I personally believe that all the issues you mentioned would be subject to negotiation. I think the Israelis would give up quite a bit to have a guarantee that there wouldn’t be hundreds of rockets fired into their territory and that there wouldn’t be terrorist attacks all the time.
Recognition of Israel as a legitimate state with a right to exist would open the door to negotiations. I think everything else would be subject to negotiation, and I think they’d give up a lot. But when you’re at that particular point, and again, you have groups engaging in massive human rights violations—and I certainly wouldn’t put it past the fact that both sides have committed law of war or humanitarian violations—it creates an environment where people are consumed with hatred. As a result, that attitude gets passed on to the next generation, and 10 years from now, we’ll have another intifada or a similar kind of situation where people are already at each other’s throats. To sit here and say, ‘We can come up with a solution’ is absolutely right—we can come up with a solution. But there’s no willingness on the part of anybody to sit down and say, ‘Okay, let’s come up with a good deal.’ And that just doesn’t seem to be happening. I wish it would. I think the Trump administration, again, with President Trump’s personal intervention, has a great opportunity to negotiate some of the things you mentioned as enticement to bring everyone to the table. We’ve had people come to the table before. In the past, we sat down and tried to hammer out agreements regarding weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East or arms control. We came up with some great ideas—they’re all out there. It just takes political will to implement them.
Unfortunately, there is no political will to do it. So, we just have to keep trying and build consensus among the region’s leaders that it’s in their best interest—and the people’s best interest—to sit down and craft a lasting peace. But whether that will happen, I have to say, after 40 years of looking at this issue, the likelihood is that we’ll face another cycle of violence in 10 years. That’s just the way it is in that region.
But we have the reality in the International Criminal Court, which announced an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, because of war crimes. This is the reality—we’re talking about dozens of thousands of people. We always say 50,000 people, but it is almost 100,000 people, and that is really insane. If you don’t want war in the region, the main issue is: with whom do you have war? With Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah? You don’t like the Muslim Brotherhood, etc., but all of these are connected to the issue of a free state of Palestine. It’s not happening this way. It’s not going to happen. I don’t want to go deep into this discussion because it has no end.
So, in our last five minutes, I’d like to go back to Trump’s foreign policy. He was really pro-Israel in his first term and moved the embassy to Jerusalem. But later on, he also had negative moments with Netanyahu. For the 2024 campaign, he has garnered greater Israeli support this time around. How will this affect his policies towards Iran and the Middle East in general?
Well, yes. I mean, the primary player in the area right now is, in fact, Iran, because it is recognized as the number one supporter of international terrorism. This has been recognized by the Gulf Cooperation Council. They support Hamas and Hezbollah, both identified as international terrorist organizations. Coupled with the firing of rockets from Iran into Israel, which in turn creates an Israeli response, the spiral of violence continues. This needs to be stopped, and there are ways to work towards peaceful coexistence. But as we know, the rhetoric in Iran is “death to Israel, death to the United States.” That kind of attitude does not make peace negotiations conducive. I wish I could give an answer that says, “This is the solution, and it will be embraced by everyone.” But, as you said, we could talk for hours about the problems and challenges in the Middle East. For example, in Lebanon, I’m watching what’s going on, and I’m actually thinking back to 1982 when I was in Lebanon. We had an attempt to maintain peace among the various groups, and then we had the Israelis invading Beirut, creating a siege situation, cutting things off. It feels like déjà vu all over again. How can we stop the cycle of violence? It really is beyond me. I’ve been dealing with this issue for a long time, and every time we came up with solutions, those solutions were quickly ignored. Hatred then became prominent. So, we just have to keep trying and, hopefully, someday we’ll get to that point.
Okay, let’s hope. My last question is on relations with China. Trump’s cabinet has hawkish figures who are strongly against China. Trump promised a 60% tax on China, which is a big concern. How do you think U.S.-China relations will progress under a second Trump term?
China will be, I think, the primary international issue for the United States. China’s long-term strategy is clear, and President Xi has made no secret of his ambition for China to become the world’s hegemon by 2049. They made statements to that effect and don’t hide it. They have a very aggressive policy of reaching out to multiple countries to build relationships through loans and various other economic incentives. They have also made claims in the South China Sea, which are very destabilizing. These claims are inconsistent with recognized international law of the sea. They have tried to harass many countries in the region over their territorial sea claims.
This has resulted in countries like Vietnam building a strong relationship with the United States. During one of my last trips as Assistant Secretary of Defense to Hanoi, I found the Vietnamese very enthusiastic about working with the U.S especially on defense sector. Other countries in the region feel the same way due to Chinese encroachment and bullying. China has also built a strong global network, acquiring port facilities in the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal area, the Straits of Malacca, and other choke points. They have created a very strong presence which in a hostile environment could be a way to strangle the world economy. We see these kinds of things happening and recognize within the United States that there are activities on the part of China that have a negative impact on national security and the collective security relationship around the world. I think we’ll see a much more active and proactive confrontation of China on these issues. There are some very big flashpoints or hot points, with Taiwan probably being the number one at the moment. The various statements by the leadership in China indicate that there will continue to be a strong push to fully integrate Taiwan within the Chinese political structure. I think that will be one of the big challenges in the first year of the Trump administration.
INTERVIEW
‘Indigenous peoples standing to fight against colonialism and imperialism’
Published
2 weeks agoon
10/12/2024In Venezuela, as well as in much of Latin America that was colonized by the Spanish empire more than five centuries ago, the month of October represents a date to remember and take pride in the indigenous roots of the American continent, called by the ancestral peoples “Abya Yala”. However, even today, 500 years after the arrival of Christopher Columbus, Spain continues without recognizing the genocide of the native peoples and their cultures, nor does it recognize the plundering of the riches of these lands. Currently, the empire is represented by another hegemonic power, the United States, and by another type of colonialism, the culture of the “American Dream” that seems more like a nightmare, but the threat to indigenous peoples, as well as Afro-descendant peoples that makes up Venezuela, continues to be the same. And in the face of this imperial and colonialist threat, Venezuela and other countries of the Abya Yala are struggling, resisting and winning the battle.
Within the framework of the Day of Indigenous Resistance in Venezuela, which since 2002 has been commemorated every October 12, we interviewed Clara Vidal, Minister of Indigenous Peoples of Venezuela. Vidal is originally from the Kariña indigenous people, based in the state of Sucre, eastern Venezuela, and has been Minister for Indigenous Peoples since 2022.
Why does Venezuela commemorate the Day of Indigenous Resistance?
Today we reflect on the importance of that tragic date, while today Spain commemorates a national holiday, they call it “Hispanic Day”, with joy, with airplanes, etc. That is, Spain celebrates the death of 90 million indigenous people, they are celebrating the greatest genocide in the history of humanity.
But we from Venezuela commemorate the 532 years of the beginning of the resistance of the indigenous peoples who to this day are in battle for a horizon and a victorious future that awaits us.
So today’s reflection is that nothing and no one, not the Spanish monarchy, nor the decadent U.S. empire will be able to defeat us, because 200 years ago we expelled them from these lands, because we do not want more colonialism or imperialism, we want to be sovereign, free and independent.
What are the references of the indigenous peoples in Venezuela today? And what is its importance?
Well, let me say that we are today in the land of Commander Hugo Chávez, of the Liberator Simón Bolívar, of the Great Chief of Chiefs Cacique Guaicaipuro, the leader of the resistance of the indigenous peoples, because 532 years ago took place the invasion of our lands, and practically 90 million indigenous brothers were exterminated by an European Empire.
Precisely, according to what we have experienced and what our ancestors experienced, we can say that we are a free, sovereign and independent country, that throughout our history we are not going to allow any empire to controls us, dominates us, and that is why we have among our main historical references, which we must always remember:
- The fight of the indigenous Cacique Guaicaipuro, our older brother.
- Then the fight for our emancipation from the Liberator Simón Bolívar, and
- More recently, the rescue of our freedom through our eternal Commander, Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, who after that “For now” of February 4, 1992, and assuming our presidency in 1999, has rescued our freedom, our sovereignty, our independence for the present and for our national future.
The Bolivarian Revolution, what role has it given to the indigenous peoples?
Well, the Bolivarian Revolution gave us the main thing, which is the guarantee of the rights of indigenous peoples. The arrival of the Revolution fought and ensured that each of our indigenous peoples had a special chapter within the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela of 1999. That is where the great appreciation of our revolutionary process towards the recognition and respect of rights begins. of indigenous peoples. In addition to that, the thousands of tools that it has given us as public policies: the Guaicaipuro Mission, the Ministry of Popular Power for Indigenous Peoples, which at an international level is a unique experience. Venezuela is a pioneer in having an institution especially for indigenous peoples, other countries now have ministries, like Brazil, for example, but we paved the way.
In addition to that, we have legislators, in the municipal councils, councilors, we have national deputies, who are indigenous. We have our voice represented before the national, regional and municipal Legislative Power.
The presence of the United States in Latin America
The presence of agencies of imperialism such as the CIA, DEA, or NATO, among other interventionist institutions in Latin America, must be considered according to the excess of their functions. The United States acts not as a country but as an interfering organization in the internal policies of each of the nations.
The United States intervenes in the policies of each of the nations, that is, violating the sovereignty of the people. And the most important thing is that they do not respect the culture and idiosyncrasies of each of the peoples.
Precisely, when we refer to colonialism, unlike imperialism, it is about dominating and controlling and imposing their culture, belittling the cultures of the native peoples. Now, when we talk about imperialism, this is total control, from every point of view: political, social, cultural, military of each of the peoples and nations.
From there the United States and Europe then fall into fascism, neo-fascism and similar expressions. From Venezuela, the indigenous peoples: Say no to the imperial presence in our lands and nations!
Imperialism in neo-fascist governments in Latin America attacks indigenous peoples
The indigenous peoples are brave peoples, in those countries with extreme right-wing, neo-fascist governments, the indigenous peoples have been totally criminalized or have been totally forgotten, denied to exercise their own culture in their own territories. Today we can tell you, from Venezuela, that the indigenous peoples are not alone, and we also encourage them to continue the fight for their rights. The right-wing and neo-fascist governments will never, ever love indigenous peoples, because they want to erase our history.
Those governments will never protect any rights of indigenous peoples. The Venezuelan left, Bolivarian socialism, has been a fundamental part of the demands of all these sectors, mainly indigenous peoples and communities, as well as Afro-descendants, because we are the same people, the oppressed peoples. So to the indigenous peoples of Abya Yala we say that the fight must continue until we get the victory. Venezuela is proof that it is possible to recover our identity, our rights and our indigenous culture.
Imperialism and genocidal colonialism in the world: Genocide in Gaza
We call on the world, the international community, and national and international public opinion to reflect on what is happening in Gaza. Just as today there is genocide in Gaza, against the people of Palestine, we also remember what we experienced more than 500 years ago. Just as it happens today with the Palestinian people, so it happened with our ancestors, just as yesterday our ancestors had victory, because we are alive today. Today we declare our solidarity and tell the people of Palestine that they will also win, because in the face of hatred, in the face of imperialism, in the face of colonialism, love and justice will always win. So today’s reflections are that we continue fighting, because victory belongs to the people who fight for their emancipation.
We are going to remember this date as the beginning of the greatest genocide in the history of humanity so that there can never again be any empire that can raise its arm and its hatred against the people, to impose the slavery of man by man, but rather there is peace, hope as we are proposing from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela with our constitutional president, Nicolás Maduro.
What is the message that Venezuela gives to other indigenous peoples?
To the brother peoples of the South, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and also of great Brazil, because in Brazil there are also indigenous peoples, indigenous brothers and sister who were also invaded by Portugal like us; Today we tell all of you that this is the time of the people, we are going to unite, we are going to create a network of networks. The historical block necessary so that this decadent empire, or any other that may emerge, can never again defeat us.
They have tried today with the Internet, with artificial intelligence, to oppress us, but here we say that with the ancestral human intelligence of indigenous peoples they will not be able to win. Here we are fighting. Let no one make a mistake, because there is a homeland here, as Commander Chávez said. So all our ancestors today are together, united to say enough of imperialism and colonialism. Victory will be of the people! Long live the people! Long live the indigenous peoples! Long live peace and long live freedom!
Finally, what is the importance of the union of indigenous peoples and Afro-descendant peoples in Venezuela
On this important day, Venezuela shows the rest of the indigenous peoples of Latin America its struggle and its resistance. Today, 532 years after the great genocide in Abya Yala, here we are, the indigenous peoples present alongside the Afro-descendant people, the indigenous people in general, the Venezuelan people of men and women who continue to resist. Today we can say with a firm voice, with a voice of love and with a voice of joy, that we continue in resistance.
We continue in a tireless fight for the vindication of our indigenous peoples. And that today in Venezuela we have more than 54 indigenous peoples, that means that we have resisted and that we will continue to resist and win.
Afro-descendant peoples have also fought a battle to survive and assert their rights. And here we are claiming the day of indigenous resistance, but we are also fighting for that ancestral history of the Afro-descendant peoples who were the object of imperial ambition, and which forcibly brought them here, but which today has precisely led us to walk the hand making revolution.
We are now writing a new history, because we were here before the Spanish empire arrived, because the indigenous peoples were on this land, because the men and women who arrived enslaved now have a new horizon, precisely, which is not to forget history, our origins, but that we also know that our destiny is to definitively free ourselves from the yoke of imperialism, to emancipate ourselves from our minds and move forward towards the new generations with the vision of knowing that we are a people that resisted and that continues to resist because Nobody discovered us. We already existed.
Trust issue: Pakistan and Afghanistan to boost up fraternal ties
French PM names new government
EU faces rapid depletion of gas reserves amid cold winter and reduced LNG imports
Saudi-UAE-backed attack on Houthis targeted by the U.S. and Israel
China plans $411bn private treasury bond issuance in 2025
MOST READ
-
EUROPE2 weeks ago
Sweden blames Germany’s nuclear phase-out for energy crisis
-
OPINION1 week ago
Implications of the EU–Mercosur free trade agreement from a Latin American perspective
-
OPINION2 weeks ago
Who won in Syria?
-
ASIA2 weeks ago
Chinese academy discusses Syria
-
MIDDLE EAST2 weeks ago
Syria after Assad; A look at the future and possible scenarios
-
MIDDLE EAST2 weeks ago
Handover in management, and executions in Syria
-
ASIA2 weeks ago
China’s largest naval deployment around Taiwan in decades
-
EUROPE2 weeks ago
EU-Mercosur free trade agreement signed