Middle East
Former CIA analyst warns US-Israel ‘miscalculation’ in Iran has triggered global economic chokehold
In an expansive and sobering assessment of the escalating conflict in Southwest Asia, Larry Johnson, a former CIA intelligence analyst and veteran counter-terrorism official, has characterized the joint US-Israeli offensive against Iran as a catastrophic strategic miscalculation. Speaking with Professor Hasan Ünal on the Strategic Compass program, Johnson argued that Washington and West Jerusalem have fundamentally misinterpreted Iranian internal stability and military resilience, precipitating a global economic crisis that now threatens to plunge the West into a prolonged depression.
The discourse, occurring in the wake of what Johnson termed a “murderous attack” on February 28, centers on the assassination of Iranian leadership and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict enters its 14th day, Johnson warns that the geopolitical architecture of the region is being irreversibly dismantled, with Türkiye potentially occupying a precarious position on the “next on the list” of targets for Israeli subversion.
“A complete miscalculation on the part of the United States and Israel”
Opening the mülakat, Professor Ünal framed the current hostilities as “straightforward naked aggression” by the US and Israel, noting that the theater of war appears to be deviating significantly from the aggressors’ original blueprints. Johnson concurred, noting that the intelligence community in Washington fell victim to its own manufactured narratives.
“They underestimated the military capability of Iran,” Johnson stated, adding that the Pentagon and the Mossad “overestimated their own ability to try to destroy the leadership in Iran.” He revealed that US planners labored under the “false belief” that the elimination of the Supreme Leader and high-ranking IRGC officials would trigger a popular uprising. This assumption, according to Johnson, was based on flawed polling data funded by the CIA through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and USAID.
“They had funded a series of public opinion polls done over the Internet that claimed that 80% of the Iranian population were opposed, violently opposed to the Islamic Republic,” Johnson explained. “Well, it turned out that was a lie.” He cited counter-polling from the University of Maryland, conducted via traditional telephonic methods, which indicated that the regime maintained roughly 70% support. “There is no language to justify what was done other than it was an act of treachery, it was a barbarous act,” Johnson asserted, comparing the current US-Israeli conduct to the war of aggression for which the Nazis were tried at Nuremberg.
“Do the Turks realize you’re next on the list?”
A significant portion of the conversation focused on the implications for Ankara. Despite the “barking dog seldom bites” proverb cited by Professor Ünal to describe Turkish perceptions of Israeli rhetoric, Johnson issued a stark warning. He suggested that if Israel survives its current confrontation with Tehran, it will pivot its “vicious, out of control” state apparatus toward senior Turkish leadership.
“Israel is the most vicious, out of control state political organization in the world,” Johnson remarked. “There is no other country that has so wantonly and regularly attacks and kills others, in particular murdering civilians in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iran, in Yemen.” He dismissed the notion of Türkiye being able to remain insulated from the chaos, arguing that the Israeli state views Türkiye as a strategic obstacle to be subverted rather than a partner to be respected.
Johnson noted that the US has long used Türkiye for its own purposes without regard for Ankara’s long-term interests. “Türkiye is somebody to be used for our purposes,” he said, reflecting the prevailing view in Washington. He cautioned that any Turkish cooperation in “crushing” Iran would not be met with Israeli gratitude, but with further subversion. “They’re going to subvert you, they’re going to destroy you, they’re going to get rid of you,” he warned, characterizing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s attempts to manage the Israelis as “foolish.”
“Donald Trump is under the control of the Zionists”
Addressing the domestic political drivers in the US, Johnson reiterated his controversial stance that the American government remains “under occupation” by the Israeli lobby. He pointed to the frequent visits by Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington—seven since Donald Trump took office—as evidence of the administrative hierarchy being given “instructions.”
“Donald Trump is under the control of the Zionists, as are many members of the US Congress,” Johnson claimed. He argued that for 46 years, the US and Israel have propagated the “absolute false” claim that Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. Drawing on his experience at the Bureau of Counterterrorism and data from the CIA and the National Counterterrorism Center, Johnson argued that the primary drivers of international terrorism over the last quarter-century have been Sunni jihadist elements, specifically Takfiri and Wahhabi groups often linked to Saudi billionaires, rather than Tehran.
“Iran is absolutely not the number one sponsor of terrorism, not even anywhere close,” Johnson said. He highlighted Iran’s historical restraint, noting that during the eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s, Tehran refused to retaliate with chemical weapons despite being targeted by Iraqi gas provided by the US. He credited this to the “spiritual guidance” of the leadership which viewed such weapons as “a sin against Allah.”
“Grabbed the world economy by the throat and is choking it”
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has transformed the military conflict into a global economic siege. Johnson reported that even in the US, which is largely energy independent, the psychological and market effects are acute. He cited a 54% increase in gasoline prices at a Florida station within a single week as a harbinger of things to come.
However, Johnson identified a more “dangerous cut off” than petroleum: the supply of urea and nitrogen for fertilizer. “People can live without gasoline. You can walk instead of drive your car… but no fertilizer, no food,” he said. “Famine, starvation is now a definite possibility six to seven months from now.” He predicted that oil could reach $200 a barrel before a collapse in demand triggers a global depression.
Iran’s strategic leverage, Johnson argued, is now absolute. “Iran’s not going to let go of its chokehold. Why should it?” he asked, noting that Tehran is now in a position to demand reparations, the total lifting of sanctions, and ironclad security guarantees that it will never again be attacked by the US or Israel.
“Iran’s military and defense sites are built into mountains… basically impervious to Western missiles”
On the tactical front, the war has exposed the limits of both Western and Eastern technology. Johnson noted that while a Chinese-provided air defense radar system reportedly failed in a combat environment, the Iranian military has successfully downed sophisticated US MQ-9 Reaper and Israeli Hermes drones.
He clarified that while the US JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) has inflicted damage on Iranian infrastructure, it has failed to disarm the nation. “Iran is three times the size of Ukraine,” Johnson reminded the audience. He noted that unlike Israel, which has 55% of its population concentrated in just two cities—Haifa and Tel Aviv—Iran is vast, with its critical assets buried deep underground.
“Iran doesn’t have to target a hundred different places… it only has to worry about two places, Haifa and Tel Aviv,” Johnson said. He revealed that at least one US base in the Persian Gulf has completely “run out of air defense cover,” leaving personnel vulnerable. “Iranian missiles can penetrate and hit them at will.”
“Russia is in a position… the world now needs it and needs it desperately”
The primary beneficiary of this regional implosion, according to Johnson, is Moscow. With the Persian Gulf neutralized, Russia remains the only global power with ample supplies of oil, liquid natural gas, and fertilizer. “Russia is in a position… the world now needs it and needs it desperately, and I’m sure Russia will take advantage of that,” he said.
In his concluding remarks, Johnson emphasized that the era of US hegemony in the Middle East—characterized by “milking” Gulf Arab states for decades under the guise of protection—has ended. The failure to stop Iranian missile barrages and the inability to protect Israel’s “multi-layered” air defense system from Hezbollah’s four-hour saturating strikes have shattered the perception of US invincibility.
“The United States is Goliath,” Johnson concluded. “And now Iran, like David, has hit the United States right between the eyes with the stone and the United States has collapsed.”
Israel’s Chief of General Staff, Eyal Zamir, has instructed officials to examine criminal and legal steps against the production team of the documentary “NAZA”, which focuses on testimonies from soldiers and intelligence personnel who served in Gaza operations.
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu targeted the production, describing it as “unacceptable”, more than 200 Israeli filmmakers published a joint statement backing the directors.
Maintaining that the documentary slandered the military, Chief of General Staff Zamir asserted that the work had no intention of uncovering the truth.
“In light of the available data, this production is not a work that constructively criticises the military,” Zamir said. “On the contrary, it relies on blood libels, a deliberate distortion of the reality on the ground, and baseless accusations directed at our soldiers and commanders.”
Zamir further claimed that the military was presented as an entity acting unlawfully and that the arguments of anti-Israel circles were adapted for the film.
The Israeli military is establishing a new multidisciplinary, inter-agency working group involving domestic and international experts to counter such allegations.
Meanwhile, the military’s most senior legal official, Itai Ofir, is reviewing the legal procedures that could be initiated against the documentary’s producers.
The military leadership contends that the testimonies lack credibility because the identities, ranks, and operational details of the personnel interviewed in the film were concealed.
Rejecting the assertion that targets were selected by artificial intelligence, military officials stated that all strikes and target approvals were decided by human hands within the framework of military directives.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacted to the production in a video message shared on Telegram.
“This situation is appalling,” Netanyahu said, voicing his reaction. “While resisting antisemitic incitement conducted globally, it is unacceptable for a similar approach to arise from within ourselves. Two Israeli directors presenting the Israeli military as war criminals are being applauded at the Venice Film Festival.”
The 80-minute production was awarded the Special Jury Prize at the 83rd Venice International Film Festival and received a 25-minute standing ovation in the auditorium at the end of the screening.
In reactions emerging from the cabinet, Minister of Culture and Sports Miki Zohar accused directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor of “high treason”.
“The self-hatred displayed by these producers, who risk harming their own country to win the praise of antisemitic circles worldwide, is beyond comprehension,” Zohar said. Announcing that he would launch an initiative to revoke the directors’ citizenship, Zohar stated that direct accusations of treason could be brought against the individuals.
Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir also addressed the directors, stating: “You are a source of shame for the entire people of Israel. Get out of here.” Under current Israeli legislation, the culture minister does not have the authority to unilaterally revoke citizenship; decisions in this direction can be made only as a result of legal processes involving the Ministry of Interior and judicial bodies.
Following the mounting backlash, more than 200 Israeli filmmakers, including Ari Folman, Shlomi Elkabetz, Ran Tal, and Michal Aviad, signed a joint declaration of solidarity. The text emphasised that “the primary duty of art and the profession of journalism is to hold up a mirror to the society from which it arises.”
Produced in partnership with The Guardian and JW Films, “NAZA” conveys testimonies from 24 military and intelligence personnel whose identities were kept concealed and who took part in surveillance, targeting, and air strike decisions in Gaza.
Deriving its name from a Hebrew military acronym that designates the number of civilians expected to lose their lives during an operation and corresponds to the concept of “collateral damage”, the film documents that targets were determined using artificial intelligence and mass surveillance networks.
Describing high-tech weaponry and AI-assisted targeting mechanisms, one interviewed soldier made the comparison: “Because everything runs on remote control, the process resembles a video game.”
Another soldier described the deaths on the ground as “unbelievably fun”.
Director Yuval Abraham said: “The intelligence personnel we interviewed stated that the mass deaths were not an accident, but on the contrary rested upon a designed and systematic choice.”
Abraham and Szor stated that the production did not scrutinise individual soldier violations, but directly examined the institutional chain of command and operational doctrines.
The two directors had previously made the Oscar-winning documentary “No Other Land”, which addressed the displacement of Palestinians and settler violence in the occupied West Bank, alongside Palestinian filmmakers Basel Adra and Hamdan Ballal.
While the Ministry of Health in Gaza announced that the number of Palestinians who have lost their lives in the attacks exceeded 73,700, the actual death toll is projected to be far above this figure due to destroyed healthcare infrastructure and casualties lost beneath the rubble.
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is considering responding to requests for military assistance directed at Yemen from the Saudi Arabian government.
According to sources speaking to Bloomberg, the prime minister has received various requests for diplomatic and military support from Saudi Arabia.
The sources stated that Saudi Arabia’s requests include providing operational support to its military to repel the advance of Ansarullah (the Houthis) along Yemen’s Red Sea coast towards the strategically vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as well as assistance in defending against attacks on oil infrastructure.
Under pressure to take action because of the economic difficulties generated by the war with Iran, Burnham is also concerned about creating the impression that he supports Donald Trump’s war against Iran, given that the UK public overwhelmingly opposes the war.
Reports had emerged that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked Donald Trump to conduct air strikes against the Yemeni resistance.
At present, the UK has approved the deployment of only British military advisers to Saudi Arabia.
This comes despite Saudi Arabia’s request for operational support to halt operations carried out by Yemeni forces along the coastline.
Former UK prime ministers Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer had provided more comprehensive support to Saudi Arabia against the Yemeni resistance.
The prime minister was also warned by UK officials that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is of vital importance to global maritime transport and the economy, and that the capture of this strait by the Houthis must be prevented.
Earlier on Monday, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia was seeking to increase the volume of oil shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz after shutting down its East-West crude pipeline.
Saudi Arabia risks exhausting its exportable crude stockpiles if the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea fails to resume operations, according to reports.
Citing companies purchasing Saudi crude as well as market traders, the Reuters news agency reported that such an outcome could trigger a severe contraction in global oil supply.
Oil flows through the pipeline were halted following drone strikes. The government in Riyadh has not yet issued an official statement regarding the extent of the damage or the expected duration of repair works.
Sources familiar with the matter have offered differing estimates regarding the repair timetable.
One source speaking to Reuters noted that works could take five to six weeks, while another source stated that the damage could be repaired more quickly and that partial oil flows could be restored before repairs are entirely completed.
Stocks at Yanbu port reach critical threshold
Traversing the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the pipeline carries approximately 4 million barrels of oil per day. This volume represents roughly 4% of global oil supply.
The line previously provided Saudi Arabia with an alternative export route, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz where maritime traffic has faced disruptions due to regional conflict in the Middle East.
Three sources closely tracking shipment schedules indicated that, following the stoppage, oil reserves at Yanbu port would suffice to sustain exports for only five to seven days.
A fourth source stated that additional reserves held in Egypt at the Red Sea port of Ain Sokhna and the Mediterranean terminal of Sidi Kerir afford buyers shipments for several more days.
Storage capacities stand at approximately 35 million barrels at Yanbu, 18 million barrels at Ain Sokhna, and 20 million barrels at Sidi Kerir.
However, sources stressed that these facilities are not currently filled to maximum capacity and warned that these inventories will be entirely depleted if the pipeline is not brought back online.
Output at lowest level in 30 years
According to International Energy Agency data, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea transit corridors pushed Saudi oil supply in August to its lowest level in 30 years.
Data submitted by the Riyadh government to OPEC show that the kingdom’s crude production fell from 10.9 million barrels per day in February to 6.2 million barrels per day in August.
In July, the Houthis in Yemen announced the launch of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. On 8 September, the Saudi Ministry of Energy announced that operations had been suspended at several energy facilities in the southern part of the country.
On the same day, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official statement condemning Houthi strikes targeting facilities in the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan, and Najran.
Riyadh authorities reported that 73 civilians, including women and children, were injured in the attacks. US President Donald Trump stated that Iran might be behind this attack on Saudi Arabia.
In oil markets, Brent crude futures recorded their sharpest single-day gain since late July on Thursday, 10 September.
The price of November Brent crude contracts rose by 6.3% to reach $107.6 per barrel. Prices retreated below the $105 mark the following day.
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