Middle East
Former CIA analyst warns US-Israel ‘miscalculation’ in Iran has triggered global economic chokehold
In an expansive and sobering assessment of the escalating conflict in Southwest Asia, Larry Johnson, a former CIA intelligence analyst and veteran counter-terrorism official, has characterized the joint US-Israeli offensive against Iran as a catastrophic strategic miscalculation. Speaking with Professor Hasan Ünal on the Strategic Compass program, Johnson argued that Washington and West Jerusalem have fundamentally misinterpreted Iranian internal stability and military resilience, precipitating a global economic crisis that now threatens to plunge the West into a prolonged depression.
The discourse, occurring in the wake of what Johnson termed a “murderous attack” on February 28, centers on the assassination of Iranian leadership and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict enters its 14th day, Johnson warns that the geopolitical architecture of the region is being irreversibly dismantled, with Türkiye potentially occupying a precarious position on the “next on the list” of targets for Israeli subversion.
“A complete miscalculation on the part of the United States and Israel”
Opening the mülakat, Professor Ünal framed the current hostilities as “straightforward naked aggression” by the US and Israel, noting that the theater of war appears to be deviating significantly from the aggressors’ original blueprints. Johnson concurred, noting that the intelligence community in Washington fell victim to its own manufactured narratives.
“They underestimated the military capability of Iran,” Johnson stated, adding that the Pentagon and the Mossad “overestimated their own ability to try to destroy the leadership in Iran.” He revealed that US planners labored under the “false belief” that the elimination of the Supreme Leader and high-ranking IRGC officials would trigger a popular uprising. This assumption, according to Johnson, was based on flawed polling data funded by the CIA through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and USAID.
“They had funded a series of public opinion polls done over the Internet that claimed that 80% of the Iranian population were opposed, violently opposed to the Islamic Republic,” Johnson explained. “Well, it turned out that was a lie.” He cited counter-polling from the University of Maryland, conducted via traditional telephonic methods, which indicated that the regime maintained roughly 70% support. “There is no language to justify what was done other than it was an act of treachery, it was a barbarous act,” Johnson asserted, comparing the current US-Israeli conduct to the war of aggression for which the Nazis were tried at Nuremberg.
“Do the Turks realize you’re next on the list?”
A significant portion of the conversation focused on the implications for Ankara. Despite the “barking dog seldom bites” proverb cited by Professor Ünal to describe Turkish perceptions of Israeli rhetoric, Johnson issued a stark warning. He suggested that if Israel survives its current confrontation with Tehran, it will pivot its “vicious, out of control” state apparatus toward senior Turkish leadership.
“Israel is the most vicious, out of control state political organization in the world,” Johnson remarked. “There is no other country that has so wantonly and regularly attacks and kills others, in particular murdering civilians in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iran, in Yemen.” He dismissed the notion of Türkiye being able to remain insulated from the chaos, arguing that the Israeli state views Türkiye as a strategic obstacle to be subverted rather than a partner to be respected.
Johnson noted that the US has long used Türkiye for its own purposes without regard for Ankara’s long-term interests. “Türkiye is somebody to be used for our purposes,” he said, reflecting the prevailing view in Washington. He cautioned that any Turkish cooperation in “crushing” Iran would not be met with Israeli gratitude, but with further subversion. “They’re going to subvert you, they’re going to destroy you, they’re going to get rid of you,” he warned, characterizing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s attempts to manage the Israelis as “foolish.”
“Donald Trump is under the control of the Zionists”
Addressing the domestic political drivers in the US, Johnson reiterated his controversial stance that the American government remains “under occupation” by the Israeli lobby. He pointed to the frequent visits by Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington—seven since Donald Trump took office—as evidence of the administrative hierarchy being given “instructions.”
“Donald Trump is under the control of the Zionists, as are many members of the US Congress,” Johnson claimed. He argued that for 46 years, the US and Israel have propagated the “absolute false” claim that Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. Drawing on his experience at the Bureau of Counterterrorism and data from the CIA and the National Counterterrorism Center, Johnson argued that the primary drivers of international terrorism over the last quarter-century have been Sunni jihadist elements, specifically Takfiri and Wahhabi groups often linked to Saudi billionaires, rather than Tehran.
“Iran is absolutely not the number one sponsor of terrorism, not even anywhere close,” Johnson said. He highlighted Iran’s historical restraint, noting that during the eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s, Tehran refused to retaliate with chemical weapons despite being targeted by Iraqi gas provided by the US. He credited this to the “spiritual guidance” of the leadership which viewed such weapons as “a sin against Allah.”
“Grabbed the world economy by the throat and is choking it”
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has transformed the military conflict into a global economic siege. Johnson reported that even in the US, which is largely energy independent, the psychological and market effects are acute. He cited a 54% increase in gasoline prices at a Florida station within a single week as a harbinger of things to come.
However, Johnson identified a more “dangerous cut off” than petroleum: the supply of urea and nitrogen for fertilizer. “People can live without gasoline. You can walk instead of drive your car… but no fertilizer, no food,” he said. “Famine, starvation is now a definite possibility six to seven months from now.” He predicted that oil could reach $200 a barrel before a collapse in demand triggers a global depression.
Iran’s strategic leverage, Johnson argued, is now absolute. “Iran’s not going to let go of its chokehold. Why should it?” he asked, noting that Tehran is now in a position to demand reparations, the total lifting of sanctions, and ironclad security guarantees that it will never again be attacked by the US or Israel.
“Iran’s military and defense sites are built into mountains… basically impervious to Western missiles”
On the tactical front, the war has exposed the limits of both Western and Eastern technology. Johnson noted that while a Chinese-provided air defense radar system reportedly failed in a combat environment, the Iranian military has successfully downed sophisticated US MQ-9 Reaper and Israeli Hermes drones.
He clarified that while the US JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) has inflicted damage on Iranian infrastructure, it has failed to disarm the nation. “Iran is three times the size of Ukraine,” Johnson reminded the audience. He noted that unlike Israel, which has 55% of its population concentrated in just two cities—Haifa and Tel Aviv—Iran is vast, with its critical assets buried deep underground.
“Iran doesn’t have to target a hundred different places… it only has to worry about two places, Haifa and Tel Aviv,” Johnson said. He revealed that at least one US base in the Persian Gulf has completely “run out of air defense cover,” leaving personnel vulnerable. “Iranian missiles can penetrate and hit them at will.”
“Russia is in a position… the world now needs it and needs it desperately”
The primary beneficiary of this regional implosion, according to Johnson, is Moscow. With the Persian Gulf neutralized, Russia remains the only global power with ample supplies of oil, liquid natural gas, and fertilizer. “Russia is in a position… the world now needs it and needs it desperately, and I’m sure Russia will take advantage of that,” he said.
In his concluding remarks, Johnson emphasized that the era of US hegemony in the Middle East—characterized by “milking” Gulf Arab states for decades under the guise of protection—has ended. The failure to stop Iranian missile barrages and the inability to protect Israel’s “multi-layered” air defense system from Hezbollah’s four-hour saturating strikes have shattered the perception of US invincibility.
“The United States is Goliath,” Johnson concluded. “And now Iran, like David, has hit the United States right between the eyes with the stone and the United States has collapsed.”
Middle East
Over 3,000 Palestinians displaced as Israel’s Hebron siege hits day 5
The Israeli army’s siege of the city of Hebron in the occupied West Bank has entered its fifth day. More than 3,000 Palestinians have been forced to flee their homes as raids, house demolitions, and forced evictions continue across the city.
According to data shared by Hebron Municipality on 26 October, the number of displaced people has reached 3,189. More than 200 of them are infants.
Municipal authorities announced that roughly half of the total displaced population consists of children and youths under the age of 18.
Palestinian officials in the besieged city declared a state of emergency and established an urgent crisis desk.
Rami Khamis, a member of the crisis desk, highlighted civic solidarity in remarks to Al Jazeera, saying local residents and benefactors who refused to let their fellow citizens stay in temporary shelters opened their homes to displaced families.
A Palestinian forced to abandon his home in haste recounted his ordeal to Al Jazeera on 26 October.
Explaining that they fled with only the clothes on their backs, the resident said their savings, household goods, and official documents were left behind. After placing his family in a relatively safe place, he attempted to return to salvage their belongings, but could not reach the house because the area was no longer safe.
The siege began immediately after an attack on 23 October in which two Israeli soldiers were killed. The two Palestinians who carried out the assault were killed at the scene by Israeli forces.
Citing this incident, the Israeli army blockaded the city and launched wide-ranging operations. The British newspaper The Guardian described the measures carried out in Hebron as “collective punishment”.
Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi also condemned both the siege in Hebron and the military incursions spreading across the occupied West Bank in a statement on 26 October.
Emphasising that these steps constitute collective punishment, Mardawi warned that escalating tensions on the ground could lead to grave consequences.
Mardawi further argued that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government are using these attacks for propaganda and electoral calculations, stating that military pressure will not break Palestinian resilience and that calculations regarding annexation and mass expulsion will fail to achieve their goal.
Operation rift in Israeli leadership
As the blockade entered its fifth day, a divergence of opinion emerged between Israel’s military brass and the government.
According to a report in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clashed over the future of the operation.
Zamir argued that the military campaign on the ground had delivered whatever benefit it could provide and that it was now time to bring it to an end.
Military officials said tangible gains achieved throughout the operation remained limited, indicating that whether to sustain the current push required reassessment.
Indeed, the newspaper reported that Israeli forces managed to seize only a limited number of weapons in the city, failing to uncover any unusual arsenals or major arms caches.
However, Chief of Staff Zamir’s proposal to end the operation was rejected. Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Defence Minister dismissed the recommendation and decided to continue the offensive.
At least 70 Palestinians have been detained in Hebron since the siege and operations began. The Israeli army is also continuing extensive demolition activities targeting civilian homes across the city.
Middle East
US envoy says Syria interim leader Sharaa seeks Israel normalization
US Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack stated that Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, wants to normalize relations with Israel.
At the same time, he called for an end to Israel’s military operations in Syria and questioned whether Washington should intervene to halt them.
Speaking at the Global Security Forum held in Doha, Qatar, Barrack said Sharaa had managed difficult circumstances well and was trying to reassure Israel that his government poses no threat.
“I think President Sharaa has done a very good job under very difficult circumstances,” Barrack said, describing the message he believes the Syrian leader is conveying to Israel: “I am not aggressive, I have no problem with Israel, I want relations with Israel to normalize.”
Barrack also urged Israel to stop its operations in Syria, while voicing uncertainty over whether the US should step in to end them:
“It’s time to stop this [Israel’s actions in Syria]. I don’t know if it’s time for the US to intervene to stop it.”
Israel intensified its military operations in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad on 8 December 2024. Israeli forces entered the demilitarized “buffer zone” along the Golan Heights and took up positions on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon (Jabal al-Shaykh), with Israel describing the deployment as a temporary security measure.
Israeli air strikes have also targeted military facilities and weapons depots across the country.
Barrack pointed to Syria’s political transition as an example of how groups once viewed as adversaries could be incorporated into new political and security structures.
“You can take Nusra, which was once designated a foreign terrorist organization; following the transformation that took place on December 8, many people today evaluate this example as ‘here is a model,'” the US diplomat said.
The Nusra Front was a jihadist group that emerged during the Syrian civil war and, after pledging allegiance to al-Qaeda, announced its departure from the network. The organization was designated as “terrorist” by several countries and bodies, primarily the US and the UN.
The group’s leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Julani), subsequently headed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the offensive that ousted Assad.
Barrack also highlighted the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the Syrian national army as an outcome many had previously considered unlikely.
“Nobody thought you could reintegrate this Kurdish entity, the SDF, into a national army, but it happened,” the US official said.
Damascus and the Kurdish-led forces signed an agreement on 10 March 2025 to integrate the SDF’s military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state.
However, delays occurred in the implementation of the agreement due to disputes over integration terms and the future of self-administration in the region.
Barrack nevertheless expressed doubts about the effectiveness of earlier US interventions in the Middle East, citing Washington’s involvement in what he characterized as “23 regime changes” across the wider region.
“Whenever we have tried to intervene, to change a person or a regime, it seems to have been a mistake,” Barrack said, while also questioning the value of US intervention in Yemen, describing it as apparently “senseless.”
Middle East
US and Israel weigh Iran strikes after midterm vote, reports say
The US and Israeli defence ministries have drawn up plans for a fresh assault on Iran, with the envisioned offensive under consideration to launch after the US Congressional midterm elections on 3 November.
Citing sources, The New York Times reported that the blueprint anticipates a brief but intense campaign.
As military units step up their drills, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed prospective strike options with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The list of targets encompasses Iran’s nuclear sites, its energy infrastructure, and its arsenals of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Several officials who spoke to the newspaper argued that a new wave of attacks could deal a heavy blow to the Iranian economy, forcing the leadership in Tehran into concessions.
Conversely, other sources doubt whether a resumption of fighting would prove any more successful than the earlier campaign conducted between February and April.
That previous offensive drove energy prices higher and drained US stockpiles of interceptor missiles.
It remains unclear whether US President Donald Trump will authorise the operation.
Domestic political calculations in Israel could also influence the trajectory of the plans, given that the country faces general elections on 27 October.
While some experts speaking to the newspaper contended that Netanyahu could leverage the threat of war to form a national unity government, others pointed to the opposition’s distrust of the prime minister.
Washington fears regional spillover
The US administration also harbours concerns that the fighting could engulf the wider region. On Wednesday, the US State Department ordered non-essential government personnel and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia following attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis.
A US military build-up, comprising three aircraft carriers, fighter aircraft, and special forces units, is slated to be fully deployed to the region by early November.
The targets under review include the deep underground nuclear facility code-named “Pickaxe”. Trump suggested that the high-yield GBU-43/B bomb, known as the “mother of all bombs”, could be deployed against the site, though experts doubt whether the ordnance can destroy a complex buried so deeply.
For its part, Tehran is preparing for a potential escalation, threatening to broaden its target list. Retaliatory options under consideration by Iran reportedly include data centres and subsea internet cables, in addition to shipping and energy facilities.
Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to an Iranian negotiator, dismissed US hopes of wrapping up a new campaign within 72 hours as a “fantasy”. Mohammadi warned that Tehran’s response would be more severe and unpredictable.
The Financial Times previously reported that an Israeli strike on Iran set for 10 October had been called off because the US president was unwilling to risk a broader conflict ahead of the Congressional midterms.
According to that report, the Israeli military had prepared a multi-day assault on nuclear sites, Iranian government targets, power plants, and civilian infrastructure on Netanyahu’s orders. The strikes had been designed to exceed the intensity of the campaign begun in February.
Washington seeks to secure an agreement from Tehran covering both the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear programme.
“It will either be a deal or a strike,” one source told the Financial Times, adding that an operation could get under way in the coming weeks.
Another official who spoke to the paper suggested that Israeli preparations might serve as leverage to squeeze Iran in negotiations.
Axios also reported that the Pentagon had issued orders to prepare for renewed strikes, though the directive contained no specific date and Trump has yet to take a final decision.
The US and Israel launched their offensive against Iran on 28 February. Iran hit back by targeting US and Israeli assets across the region and curbing vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although both sides signed a memorandum of understanding in June that provided for a ceasefire and talks to lift the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran have persisted.
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