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Gaza ceasefire divides the US

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As the international media and mediators (US, Egypt and Qatar) have announced, Israel and Hamas have agreed to accept the ceasefire agreement – an agreement that is permanent and not temporary, and if its provisions are implemented, the other parties will not be able to start the war again.

Mohammad bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, while confirming the finalization of the ceasefire agreement, announced the implementation of its provisions from next Sunday (January 19). Joe Biden, the outgoing President of the United States, has also announced the finalization of the agreement.

Hamas, which is one side of the story, while giving in to the request of the mediators, has also welcomed the establishment of a ceasefire. In the meantime, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, has agreed to accept the agreement, but he has not made his position clear so far, which could indicate his displeasure with the situation.

There are a lot of points and unsaid things about the agreement and it requires to be examined not in one writing but in writings – but what is urgently important is the vacating of the White House by Biden for Donald Trump that will happen on January 20. In this regard, the discussion is that establishing a ceasefire is the result of the work of which of these two (Biden or Trump)? Of course, Trump has registered this achievement in his name by publishing a statement on his social page as saying “we have achieved many successes without even being in the White House. Just imagine the amazing things that will happen when I get back to the White House and my administration is fully confirmed.”

Contrary to Trump’s claim, there are also some media organs that defend the ceasefire in Gaza is not the result of his efforts, but due to Biden’s efforts. Here are their arguments:

First

It is true that Biden has stubbornly supported Israel since October 7 and without this support, Tel Aviv would not be able to continue the war against Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iran, etc.

For this reason, the critics of the Gaza war call what Israel has done in this area as a result of Biden’s support, but it should not be forgotten that at the same time, he stopped trying to establish a cease-fire to the extent that, if necessary, he did not avoid putting pressure on Netanyahu. Although he did not make an early impression.

It was Biden who, at the height of the Gaza war (November 24, 2023), forced the parties to agree to a ceasefire for four days – the ceasefire led to the exchange of a number of Israeli hostages with a group of Palestinian prisoners. This current agreement is the result of the plan that Biden presented in May of last year – a plan that was accepted by Netanyahu with disgust now and not at that time.

We have already discussed this once in the previous article, however based on the above plan, the parties stepped on the border of signing the agreement many times, but they went back a little. So, it can be said that Biden had already plowed the ground, but it yielded later (last evening). To say that nothing was done at all, we have spoken exactly to Trump’s taste.

Second

Not only the ceasefire in Gaza, but the end of the war between Hezbollah and Israel (November 27, 2024) was also the result of Biden’s efforts. The war in Lebanon was so intense that ending it was more difficult than establishing a ceasefire in Gaza.

It was after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the former leader of Hezbollah, that the Islamic Republic targeted Israel for the second time (October 1, 2024) with nearly two hundred ballistic missiles – the attack was called “Operation Honest Promise 2”. While for Gaza, compared to Lebanon, he did not do anything serious.

Falling short against Hezbollah was expensive for Netanyahu, but apparently, he had no choice but to accept Biden’s request. Meanwhile, Biden was not as concerned about what happened in Lebanon as he is about the Palestinians.

The 46th president of the United States not only ended the war in Lebanon, but also put an end to the power vacuum in this country – the election of Joseph Aoun as the president.

Lebanon has been without a president since October 30, 2022, which can be said to be practically in a power vacuum. But Biden, in cooperation with France and Saudi Arabia, did something to greatly reduce the severity of the political crisis in Beirut – if it does not sink completely.

If we pay close attention, the difficulty of appointing the president in Lebanon was not less than the difficulty of ending the war, considering the tribal structure of this country. The war and power vacuum in Lebanon was ended without anyone saying anything about Trump’s role in it.

Third

It is true that Trump has always emphasized the need for an immediate end to wars. But he is talking more about Ukraine than Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, etc. Due to his own reasons, he does not like Ukraine and the ruler of this country, and for this reason, he has exposed Biden to serious criticism for the money he gives to Kiev.

He had already claimed that in case of victory, he would end the war in Ukraine for one day – even at the cost of displeasure of Kiev and America’s European allies. Every time he has spoken about the war in Gaza and Lebanon, he has severely criticized Biden on the pretext that he did not support Israel well. He even accused Kamala Harris – the Democratic candidate – of being anti-Israel many times in the heat of the election.

So, if the reader focuses on Trump’s view of the crises in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, he/she will inevitably reach the understanding that he is against the continuation of the war in Ukraine and not in Gaza and Lebanon. The reason is also clear: Israel is important to him. For this reason, many analysts believe that when Trump talks about the end of wars in the world, he considers the Middle East to be an exception to the rule, because Israel is present in it.

Fourth

The end of the Gaza war is the biggest achievement considering the high ceiling of human casualties and financial damage in this strip – an achievement that Biden made in the last days of his presence in the White House.

No matter what Trump claims, this coin was struck in the name of Biden – because he is still the ruler of America. Trump wanted to record this achievement, but luck did not help him. According to reliable reports, Trump told Netanyahu that he should finish his work by January 20. In the sense that he has freedom of action until after Biden leaves the White House and then prepares to sign the ceasefire agreement – an agreement that should have been decorated with the color of his representative’s pen, which was not.

Trump’s attempt to delay the establishment of a ceasefire does not necessarily mean the confirmation of the continued destruction in Gaza, but rather he wanted to put an end to the crisis in this strip and Lebanon after the moment he entered the White House, so that the most benefit from it is Israel and the most loss is for its competitors.

Middle East

Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks

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Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.

According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.

The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.

The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.

Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.

They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.

Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”

Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.

After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.

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Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts

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The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.

In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.

According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.

Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.

Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.

The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.

The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.

Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.

Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.

Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.

Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.

Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.

During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.

The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.

On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.

Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.

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Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets

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BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.

The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.

The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.

Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.

Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.

According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.

The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.

US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.

The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.

However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.

A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”

The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.

The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.

However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.

Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.

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