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Impact of Le Pen’s ban could spread across Europe

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France’s prominent right-wing politician Marine Le Pen was sentenced on Monday to a five-year ban from holding elected office. This penalty, if upheld after appeals, will prevent her from running for president in 2027.

A Paris court sentenced Le Pen to four years in prison—two suspended and two to be served under electronic monitoring—for embezzling European Parliament (EP) funds, and banned her from holding public office for five years.

The French leader is accused of embezzling €4.4 million in EP funds intended for staff working for her party, National Rally (RN), in Brussels.

In a statement on Tuesday, Le Pen declared, “The system dropped the nuclear bomb, and if they did this, it’s clearly because we are on the verge of winning power. We will not give up. We will not let the French people have the presidential election stolen from them.”

Le Pen’s accusation that the judiciary is politicized has fueled speculation that she might organize a counter-movement similar to that of former US President Donald Trump. However, RN officials state they will not follow Trump’s path, arguing that such an aggressive approach could alienate the undecided voters needed to win the two-round presidential election.

Referring to the protests on January 6, 2021, when Trump supporters contested Joe Biden’s election victory, Philippe Olivier, a senior RN figure and Le Pen’s brother-in-law, stated, “We will not do a Capitol [riot]. We will follow Martin Luther King. Jean-Marie Le Pen would have reacted like Trump, but Marine Le Pen is neither her father nor Trump. We will do it differently.”

Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old RN President designated as Le Pen’s successor, condemned the “tyranny of judges” and claimed that “French democracy is being executed.”

However, adopting a softer tone in an interview with CNews on Tuesday morning, Bardella said, “I believe democracy is the violence of words, never physical violence. I believe the French people must be angry today, and I tell them: Rise up! Be angry!”

The RN has called for “peaceful mass mobilization” and decided to organize a rally in Paris on Sunday to support Le Pen.

Officials also mentioned plans to engage with voters and distribute leaflets across the country this weekend.

Furthermore, the RN launched a petition titled “Save democracy, support Marine!” to rally its supporters.

Rémy Heitz, the chief prosecutor at France’s highest court of appeal, described such threats as serious and defended the court.

“The decision is not political; it is a legal decision made by three independent and impartial judges. Threats against judges are absolutely unacceptable in a democracy,” Heitz stated.

Prime Minister François Bayrou, speaking in the National Assembly on Tuesday, refuted claims that the judiciary was undermining French democracy.

However, the prime minister added that “as a citizen,” he questioned the appropriateness of an immediate ban from elections before all appeal routes were exhausted.

“The law under which the judges made their decision was passed by parliament . . . It is parliament that will decide whether this law should be changed,” Bayrou said.

Bayrou and his Democratic Movement party are facing a second trial in a fake contract case similar to Le Pen’s, following the prosecutors’ appeal of the initial verdict.

Legal troubles, including bans, are not new for politicians in France, and those affected often complain about the judges. Former president Nicolas Sarkozy accused the court of overreach and harassment in his ongoing case concerning alleged illegal campaign contributions from Libya.

Right-wing former prime minister François Fillon lost his frontrunner status ahead of the May 2017 presidential election after police launched a formal investigation in March of that year into allegations he employed his wife in a fake job as a parliamentary assistant.

In 2011, former president Jacques Chirac was found guilty of embezzling public funds and received a two-year suspended prison sentence.

Support for Le Pen from Israel, Trump, Orbán, Salvini, and Wilders

Several right-wing leaders, including Trump, have stood by Le Pen, attacking the “radical left” for allegedly trying to eliminate opponents through the judiciary.

Trump commented on Le Pen’s ban on Monday, stating, “This is a very big deal,” and drew parallels with the series of lawsuits filed against him, many of which were dropped after his re-election.

“Sounds like this country [the US]. Sounds very much like this country,” Trump remarked.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán initiated the “#JeSuisMarine” [“#IAmMarine”] tag on X, while Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Lega leader Matteo Salvini called the decision a “declaration of war by Brussels,” suggesting that “those who fear the voters’ decision often seek reassurance from the courts’ decision.”

Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch right-wing PVV, also supported Le Pen, stating, “I believe in her,” and expressing confidence that she would win her appeal, overturn the ban, and “become the President of France.”

Harald Vilimsky, an Austrian FPÖ MEP within the PfE group, spoke of a “scandalous decision,” while Tom Van Grieken, leader of Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, described the court ruling as an “attack on democracy.”

Santiago Abascal, leader of the Spanish party Vox, declared that the French people ‘cannot be silenced.’

Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli stated on X that the “pathetic and transparent attempt by declining elites to suppress the will of the people using the judicial system as a weapon” would fail.

Will protest votes rise in Europe?

Meanwhile, according to poll results released Monday by the Odoxa polling institute, Le Pen is France’s most popular politician with a 37% approval rating, slightly ahead of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (36%) and RN party leader Jordan Bardella (35%).

Regardless of the legal interpretation of the ruling, it appears to have deepened divisions within the French population and threatens to attract new sympathizers to the right.

For instance, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) believes this will help further mobilize the RN base ahead of the next elections.

In a recent statement, the ECFR warned that the ruling against Le Pen would have broader and significant consequences across Europe.

Mentioning the potential for a surge in “anti-establishment” movements in Europe, the ECFR pointed out that the view propagated by the Trump administration—that liberal elites have “captured political systems in the West”—would gain further legitimacy.

The ECFR suggested we will see the far-right more strongly asserting in the future that “the system” is working to silence them, noting this is already happening beyond Europe, citing Brazil’s far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, who claimed “the left and the system” work to “take opponents out of the game.”

Bardella as Le Pen’s strongest successor candidate

According to a survey of approximately 1,000 people conducted on Monday by the research and consulting group Elabe, 57% of respondents said the verdict against Le Pen was “normal” given the allegations against her.

The poll indicated that 89% of RN voters considered it unfair, while majorities among supporters of other parties deemed it fair.

Over 80% of voters for the New Popular Front (NFP) and Macron’s Ensemble party stated they did not believe the ruling against Le Pen was “political.”

A majority of 68% also felt it was fair for the ban to apply immediately, before appeals are concluded.

Nearly 90% of RN voters argued that Jordan Bardella is the best candidate to succeed Le Pen.

A few months ago, while the case against Le Pen was peaking, Bardella faced accusations of “betrayal” from some RN supporters for touring cities to promote his own book.

Bardella is emerging as a potential leader who could gain acceptance across Europe, seen as young and more “liberal,” unburdened by the political legacy of the Le Pen family.

Bardella frequented La Cave Saint-Germain bar, whose regulars over the years included Sarah Knafo (now an MEP and member of the far-right Patriots for Europe group), Pierre Gentillet (now a commentator on the far-right CNews channel), and Alexandre Loubet (now an MP). It was there he formed his current inner circle within the RN, which includes MP Pierre-Romain Thionnet.

On paper at least, Bardella exhibits significant policy differences from his mentor, Marine Le Pen. For example, he publicly supports Ukraine in its war against Russia.

While Marine Le Pen represents the “social” wing of the French far-right, Bardella is pushing for the creation of a “Ministry of State Efficiency,” modeled after Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

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German officials urge fighter jet alliance with Sweden and Spain

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German Defence Ministry officials have advised Berlin to form a new fighter jet partnership with Sweden and Spain rather than join an existing UK-led consortium.

Internal ministry assessment notes obtained by Politico state that a trilateral arrangement among Germany, Sweden, and Spain represents a “more advantageous and promising” approach than joining the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) run by the UK, Italy, and Japan.

The proposal outlined in the document does not yet represent a final government decision, nor does it contain any indication that German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has approved the recommendation.

The advice was drafted after Germany’s flagship project with France to build a next-generation fighter jet collapsed in June following years of industrial infighting.

Initiated in 2017 and later joined by Spain, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) was conceived as a showcase initiative for European defence cooperation. The partnership aimed to develop an aircraft to replace Germany’s Eurofighter fleet starting in 2040.

However, the initiative foundered on disputes over operational control and workshare between France-based Dassault and Germany-based Airbus Defence and Space. Following unsuccessful rescue attempts at the political level, Berlin withdrew from the joint fighter project this year.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham raised the prospect of Germany joining GCAP during an 8 October meeting in Berlin with Friedrich Merz. The two leaders agreed that officials should continue discussions.

For Berlin, the choice carries implications that reach far beyond which model its air force will fly. The decision will determine who controls future military technology, which countries secure production contracts, and whether a new European partnership can avoid the frictions that dismantled FCAS.

Ministry assessment keeps distance from UK-partnered GCAP project

The ministry assessment listed several reservations regarding the GCAP project. The report argued that the existing programme focuses on operations beyond Germany’s capability requirements, whereas Berlin needs an aircraft better suited for missions over continental Europe.

The document also noted that German manufacturers would struggle to secure a significant share of development and production work within an already established partnership.

Invoking past experiences with the Eurofighter programme, which was developed in the 1990s and entered service in the early 2000s, the document took direct aim at British defence contractor BAE Systems.

The German Defence Ministry assessment accused BAE Systems of prioritizing exports over the development interests of Germany and Italy, warning that British dominance would prove incompatible with an equal partnership.

By contrast, the document stated that the military requirements of Germany, Sweden, and Spain align closely and that their starting positions are well balanced.

The assessment proposed an industrial partnership between aerospace giant Airbus and Sweden’s Saab, while recommending that the Saab-manufactured Gripen E fighter jet serve as a technological stepping stone until the new aircraft is developed.

The German Defence Ministry declined to comment on the matter. A separate ministry note, however, recorded British efforts to integrate Germany into GCAP as an observer or participant, asking German officials to examine potential industrial roles and military requirements.

An Airbus spokesperson said the company was “generally open to cooperation”, provided that German and Spanish industry secured a “substantial and equal role” across development, production, and operational phases.

“Purely political decisions without an industrial foundation remain insufficient,” the spokesperson said, urging authorities in Berlin and Madrid to clarify the path forward swiftly.

In an interview published in Handelsblatt on Monday, Airbus defence chief Michael Schollhorn pointed to ties with Saab, noting that the two companies have always worked well together.

A Saab spokesperson also indicated that the company is receptive to broad defence cooperation, including in fighter aircraft.

Emphasizing that large-scale collaborative projects are handled at the political level and that participation decisions rest with the respective governments, the spokesperson said: “All questions regarding potential Swedish participation should be directed to the Swedish government. Saab stands ready, as always, to support Sweden’s future fighter aircraft requirements.”

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EU reopens debate on naming envoy for Ukraine talks with Putin

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The European Union has returned to the idea of appointing an envoy to hold talks on Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Politico, this search gained fresh momentum following a visit to Russia by Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy.

During his trip, Witkoff proposed to Putin that Russia, the US, and Ukraine hold trilateral talks.

European countries, meanwhile, fear that Washington could accept terms unfavourable to Kyiv in negotiations that exclude them.

Sources speaking to Politico said the names being discussed for the envoy role include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas.

Some European diplomats believe Finnish President Alexander Stubb may be the most suitable candidate for the post.

Stubb’s good relations with Trump and Finland’s experience in dealing with Russia are cited among the factors setting him apart.

An unnamed EU diplomat described Stubb as the only European politician so far to have demonstrated senior-level leadership.

Another group of diplomats argues that Costa should lead the talks. European leaders asked Costa during last week’s EU summit in Brussels whether the time had come to speak with Putin.

Politico’s source recounted that exchange: “Costa said no, saying he would not speak to Putin right now. But if we want to play a role in the negotiations, Costa still needs to initiate dialogue with Putin.”

According to an assessment by another source, the European Council president could serve as a more neutral mediator than von der Leyen or Kallas, who are seen as overly focused on supporting Ukraine.

“Three or four people cannot go there with each of us speaking on behalf of the European Union,” one of the sources told the publication. “Ultimately, the choice of who represents the EU must be based on maximum efficiency, not on a personal power struggle or someone’s narcissistic ambitions.”

Politico previously reported in January that the EU was considering appointing a special representative for Ukraine negotiations. At the time, the initiative drew support from several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Putin said he was ready to negotiate with European countries, but asserted that Europe had “no peace agenda” and stood “on the side of war”.

The Russian leader also named former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder as Moscow’s preferred negotiator from Europe.

Kallas ruled out such an appointment, noting that Schröder was “a lobbyist for Russian state companies” and would sit “on both sides of the negotiating table”.

Stubb details obstacles to talks and Oslo diplomatic drive

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said the principal obstacle to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine was the territorial issue.

Stubb took part in talks in Oslo with US envoy Steve Witkoff, who subsequently travelled to Saint Petersburg to meet Vladimir Putin.

As reported by the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, Stubb stated that advancing the peace process required either bilateral talks between Russia and Ukraine or trilateral negotiations involving the US.

The Finnish president listed the other major items to be addressed within a settlement as US security guarantees for Ukraine and the construction of a new European security architecture after the war ends.

Without stating it outright, Stubb implied that the core issue within this framework was Ukraine’s NATO membership. The Finnish leader pointed to monitoring the ceasefire, establishing the line of contact, ensuring energy and food security, and exchanging prisoners as practical tasks.

Stubb also detailed the talks held in Oslo on 20 October, which included Witkoff, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.

The discussions, which spanned approximately eight hours across various formats, had three objectives: to lower tensions in public discourse, to convey European and Ukrainian proposals to the US envoy before his visit to Russia, and to determine the next steps toward a peaceful settlement. Stubb announced that these goals had been achieved.

Moscow ready to resume trilateral talks in November

Witkoff met Putin in Saint Petersburg on Wednesday.

Following the meeting, Russian presidential aide Yuriy Ushakov announced that Moscow was prepared to resume trilateral negotiations with the US and Ukraine during the first half of November.

Ushakov also said that the EU and NATO had begun to “take a more serious approach” to Kremlin proposals on Ukraine, adding that “matters” were moving toward an end to the conflict.

Witkoff described the meeting as “constructive”.

Sources told Bloomberg in September that Putin continued to insist the Donetsk region must come fully under Russian control, expressing confidence that the territory would be captured within the next six months.

Putin previously set conditions for ending the war, demanding that Ukraine abandon plans to join NATO, maintain a neutral and non-nuclear status, and that anti-Russian sanctions be lifted.

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Trump midterms calculus halts Israeli strike plan against Iran

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A comprehensive military operation planned by the Israeli military for 10 October did not take place because US President Donald Trump chose to avoid a broad conflict before the 3 November congressional midterm elections.

Preparations had been made on the orders of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for an aerial bombardment meant to last several days, according to a report by the Financial Times citing sources familiar with the matter.

The list of targets included nuclear facilities and locations associated with the Iranian leadership, along with power stations and other civilian infrastructure sites.

The planned strikes were projected to exceed the joint operation launched by the US and Israel in February in terms of intensity.

White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told the newspaper: “The United States is not going to strike Iran at any point before the midterms.”

Kelly argued that the administration in Tehran was in distress both economically and militarily, adding that the blockade imposed on Iranian ports and US efforts to secure oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were producing results.

Speaking to the newspaper, one source addressed the possibility of strikes resuming in the coming weeks, saying: “There’s either going to be a deal or a strike.”

The same source reported that Washington aims for a comprehensive settlement that resolves the conflict over both the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear programme, although it remained unclear whether the US would have participated directly in the cancelled operation.

Another source said the preparations for the operation might have served as leverage to pressure Tehran in negotiations, adding that the final decision on any new military step rests with the US president.

Hegseth reviews updated target list in Israel

An Israeli official said US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth visited Israel on 19 October to meet with Netanyahu and senior representatives.

Another source stated that the Israeli side presented an updated target list to its American counterparts, compiled with fresh intelligence and incorporating civilian infrastructure sites that had not been struck earlier this year.

The Pentagon did not respond to questions regarding the meetings, while Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli military declined to comment.

Despite the postponement of the operation, Trump and Netanyahu continued to issue military warnings to Iran in public.

In a video released on 19 October, Netanyahu addressed Trump, saying: “Donald, you said we need to finish this, and we will finish it together.” Speaking on speakerphone, Trump responded: “You’re a great warrior, and we’re going to prove it very soon.”

These engagements between the leaders coincide with critical election cycles in both countries.

Parliamentary elections in Israel are scheduled for 27 October, one week before the vote in the US.

Most public opinion polls in the country show the opposition bloc holding a narrow lead over Netanyahu’s coalition, though neither side commands a clear majority.

Axios, a US-based news outlet, previously reported that the Pentagon instructed military planners to finalize strike plans against Iran, though the directive specified no date and Trump had not reached a final decision.

On 15 October, CNN reported on plans to use the GBU-43/B munition, known as the “mother of all bombs”, against Iranian nuclear facilities, with US officials who spoke to the broadcaster expressing scepticism about the weapon’s ability to destroy deep bunkers.

While Tehran announced that it remains open to a diplomatic solution, it declared that any potential operation would draw a fierce response.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that if its adversaries chose military conflict, the response would be “much harsher than before”.

Following the joint operation launched by the US and Israel on 28 February, Iran retaliated by striking targets across the region and restricting maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Although the parties reached an agreement in June covering a ceasefire and negotiations to lift the blockade in the strait, reciprocal strikes between the US and Iran have not ceased.

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