Europe
Impact of Le Pen’s ban could spread across Europe
France’s prominent right-wing politician Marine Le Pen was sentenced on Monday to a five-year ban from holding elected office. This penalty, if upheld after appeals, will prevent her from running for president in 2027.
A Paris court sentenced Le Pen to four years in prison—two suspended and two to be served under electronic monitoring—for embezzling European Parliament (EP) funds, and banned her from holding public office for five years.
The French leader is accused of embezzling €4.4 million in EP funds intended for staff working for her party, National Rally (RN), in Brussels.
In a statement on Tuesday, Le Pen declared, “The system dropped the nuclear bomb, and if they did this, it’s clearly because we are on the verge of winning power. We will not give up. We will not let the French people have the presidential election stolen from them.”
Le Pen’s accusation that the judiciary is politicized has fueled speculation that she might organize a counter-movement similar to that of former US President Donald Trump. However, RN officials state they will not follow Trump’s path, arguing that such an aggressive approach could alienate the undecided voters needed to win the two-round presidential election.
Referring to the protests on January 6, 2021, when Trump supporters contested Joe Biden’s election victory, Philippe Olivier, a senior RN figure and Le Pen’s brother-in-law, stated, “We will not do a Capitol [riot]. We will follow Martin Luther King. Jean-Marie Le Pen would have reacted like Trump, but Marine Le Pen is neither her father nor Trump. We will do it differently.”
Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old RN President designated as Le Pen’s successor, condemned the “tyranny of judges” and claimed that “French democracy is being executed.”
However, adopting a softer tone in an interview with CNews on Tuesday morning, Bardella said, “I believe democracy is the violence of words, never physical violence. I believe the French people must be angry today, and I tell them: Rise up! Be angry!”
The RN has called for “peaceful mass mobilization” and decided to organize a rally in Paris on Sunday to support Le Pen.
Officials also mentioned plans to engage with voters and distribute leaflets across the country this weekend.
Furthermore, the RN launched a petition titled “Save democracy, support Marine!” to rally its supporters.
Rémy Heitz, the chief prosecutor at France’s highest court of appeal, described such threats as serious and defended the court.
“The decision is not political; it is a legal decision made by three independent and impartial judges. Threats against judges are absolutely unacceptable in a democracy,” Heitz stated.
Prime Minister François Bayrou, speaking in the National Assembly on Tuesday, refuted claims that the judiciary was undermining French democracy.
However, the prime minister added that “as a citizen,” he questioned the appropriateness of an immediate ban from elections before all appeal routes were exhausted.
“The law under which the judges made their decision was passed by parliament . . . It is parliament that will decide whether this law should be changed,” Bayrou said.
Bayrou and his Democratic Movement party are facing a second trial in a fake contract case similar to Le Pen’s, following the prosecutors’ appeal of the initial verdict.
Legal troubles, including bans, are not new for politicians in France, and those affected often complain about the judges. Former president Nicolas Sarkozy accused the court of overreach and harassment in his ongoing case concerning alleged illegal campaign contributions from Libya.
Right-wing former prime minister François Fillon lost his frontrunner status ahead of the May 2017 presidential election after police launched a formal investigation in March of that year into allegations he employed his wife in a fake job as a parliamentary assistant.
In 2011, former president Jacques Chirac was found guilty of embezzling public funds and received a two-year suspended prison sentence.
Support for Le Pen from Israel, Trump, Orbán, Salvini, and Wilders
Several right-wing leaders, including Trump, have stood by Le Pen, attacking the “radical left” for allegedly trying to eliminate opponents through the judiciary.
Trump commented on Le Pen’s ban on Monday, stating, “This is a very big deal,” and drew parallels with the series of lawsuits filed against him, many of which were dropped after his re-election.
“Sounds like this country [the US]. Sounds very much like this country,” Trump remarked.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán initiated the “#JeSuisMarine” [“#IAmMarine”] tag on X, while Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Lega leader Matteo Salvini called the decision a “declaration of war by Brussels,” suggesting that “those who fear the voters’ decision often seek reassurance from the courts’ decision.”
Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch right-wing PVV, also supported Le Pen, stating, “I believe in her,” and expressing confidence that she would win her appeal, overturn the ban, and “become the President of France.”
Harald Vilimsky, an Austrian FPÖ MEP within the PfE group, spoke of a “scandalous decision,” while Tom Van Grieken, leader of Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, described the court ruling as an “attack on democracy.”
Santiago Abascal, leader of the Spanish party Vox, declared that the French people ‘cannot be silenced.’
Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli stated on X that the “pathetic and transparent attempt by declining elites to suppress the will of the people using the judicial system as a weapon” would fail.
Will protest votes rise in Europe?
Meanwhile, according to poll results released Monday by the Odoxa polling institute, Le Pen is France’s most popular politician with a 37% approval rating, slightly ahead of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (36%) and RN party leader Jordan Bardella (35%).
Regardless of the legal interpretation of the ruling, it appears to have deepened divisions within the French population and threatens to attract new sympathizers to the right.
For instance, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) believes this will help further mobilize the RN base ahead of the next elections.
In a recent statement, the ECFR warned that the ruling against Le Pen would have broader and significant consequences across Europe.
Mentioning the potential for a surge in “anti-establishment” movements in Europe, the ECFR pointed out that the view propagated by the Trump administration—that liberal elites have “captured political systems in the West”—would gain further legitimacy.
The ECFR suggested we will see the far-right more strongly asserting in the future that “the system” is working to silence them, noting this is already happening beyond Europe, citing Brazil’s far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, who claimed “the left and the system” work to “take opponents out of the game.”
Bardella as Le Pen’s strongest successor candidate
According to a survey of approximately 1,000 people conducted on Monday by the research and consulting group Elabe, 57% of respondents said the verdict against Le Pen was “normal” given the allegations against her.
The poll indicated that 89% of RN voters considered it unfair, while majorities among supporters of other parties deemed it fair.
Over 80% of voters for the New Popular Front (NFP) and Macron’s Ensemble party stated they did not believe the ruling against Le Pen was “political.”
A majority of 68% also felt it was fair for the ban to apply immediately, before appeals are concluded.
Nearly 90% of RN voters argued that Jordan Bardella is the best candidate to succeed Le Pen.
A few months ago, while the case against Le Pen was peaking, Bardella faced accusations of “betrayal” from some RN supporters for touring cities to promote his own book.
Bardella is emerging as a potential leader who could gain acceptance across Europe, seen as young and more “liberal,” unburdened by the political legacy of the Le Pen family.
Bardella frequented La Cave Saint-Germain bar, whose regulars over the years included Sarah Knafo (now an MEP and member of the far-right Patriots for Europe group), Pierre Gentillet (now a commentator on the far-right CNews channel), and Alexandre Loubet (now an MP). It was there he formed his current inner circle within the RN, which includes MP Pierre-Romain Thionnet.
On paper at least, Bardella exhibits significant policy differences from his mentor, Marine Le Pen. For example, he publicly supports Ukraine in its war against Russia.
While Marine Le Pen represents the “social” wing of the French far-right, Bardella is pushing for the creation of a “Ministry of State Efficiency,” modeled after Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Europe
China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans
The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.
In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.
According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.
The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.
At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.
“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”
The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.
The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.
European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.
Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.
A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”
Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”
Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.
In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.
The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.
A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.
Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.
Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.
The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.
“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”
Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Shagina said:
“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”
In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.
Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.
“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.
Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.
A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”
“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.
Europe
Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain
European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.
The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.
Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.
The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.
Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.
Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”
The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.
Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.
In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.
The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.
Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”
Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.
Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”
The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.
For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.
The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.
Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.
The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.
Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.
The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.
Europe
SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine
SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.
In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:
“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”
In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.
The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.
SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”
When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.
Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.
Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.
At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”
The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.
A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.
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