Europe
Impact of Le Pen’s ban could spread across Europe
France’s prominent right-wing politician Marine Le Pen was sentenced on Monday to a five-year ban from holding elected office. This penalty, if upheld after appeals, will prevent her from running for president in 2027.
A Paris court sentenced Le Pen to four years in prison—two suspended and two to be served under electronic monitoring—for embezzling European Parliament (EP) funds, and banned her from holding public office for five years.
The French leader is accused of embezzling €4.4 million in EP funds intended for staff working for her party, National Rally (RN), in Brussels.
In a statement on Tuesday, Le Pen declared, “The system dropped the nuclear bomb, and if they did this, it’s clearly because we are on the verge of winning power. We will not give up. We will not let the French people have the presidential election stolen from them.”
Le Pen’s accusation that the judiciary is politicized has fueled speculation that she might organize a counter-movement similar to that of former US President Donald Trump. However, RN officials state they will not follow Trump’s path, arguing that such an aggressive approach could alienate the undecided voters needed to win the two-round presidential election.
Referring to the protests on January 6, 2021, when Trump supporters contested Joe Biden’s election victory, Philippe Olivier, a senior RN figure and Le Pen’s brother-in-law, stated, “We will not do a Capitol [riot]. We will follow Martin Luther King. Jean-Marie Le Pen would have reacted like Trump, but Marine Le Pen is neither her father nor Trump. We will do it differently.”
Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old RN President designated as Le Pen’s successor, condemned the “tyranny of judges” and claimed that “French democracy is being executed.”
However, adopting a softer tone in an interview with CNews on Tuesday morning, Bardella said, “I believe democracy is the violence of words, never physical violence. I believe the French people must be angry today, and I tell them: Rise up! Be angry!”
The RN has called for “peaceful mass mobilization” and decided to organize a rally in Paris on Sunday to support Le Pen.
Officials also mentioned plans to engage with voters and distribute leaflets across the country this weekend.
Furthermore, the RN launched a petition titled “Save democracy, support Marine!” to rally its supporters.
Rémy Heitz, the chief prosecutor at France’s highest court of appeal, described such threats as serious and defended the court.
“The decision is not political; it is a legal decision made by three independent and impartial judges. Threats against judges are absolutely unacceptable in a democracy,” Heitz stated.
Prime Minister François Bayrou, speaking in the National Assembly on Tuesday, refuted claims that the judiciary was undermining French democracy.
However, the prime minister added that “as a citizen,” he questioned the appropriateness of an immediate ban from elections before all appeal routes were exhausted.
“The law under which the judges made their decision was passed by parliament . . . It is parliament that will decide whether this law should be changed,” Bayrou said.
Bayrou and his Democratic Movement party are facing a second trial in a fake contract case similar to Le Pen’s, following the prosecutors’ appeal of the initial verdict.
Legal troubles, including bans, are not new for politicians in France, and those affected often complain about the judges. Former president Nicolas Sarkozy accused the court of overreach and harassment in his ongoing case concerning alleged illegal campaign contributions from Libya.
Right-wing former prime minister François Fillon lost his frontrunner status ahead of the May 2017 presidential election after police launched a formal investigation in March of that year into allegations he employed his wife in a fake job as a parliamentary assistant.
In 2011, former president Jacques Chirac was found guilty of embezzling public funds and received a two-year suspended prison sentence.
Support for Le Pen from Israel, Trump, Orbán, Salvini, and Wilders
Several right-wing leaders, including Trump, have stood by Le Pen, attacking the “radical left” for allegedly trying to eliminate opponents through the judiciary.
Trump commented on Le Pen’s ban on Monday, stating, “This is a very big deal,” and drew parallels with the series of lawsuits filed against him, many of which were dropped after his re-election.
“Sounds like this country [the US]. Sounds very much like this country,” Trump remarked.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán initiated the “#JeSuisMarine” [“#IAmMarine”] tag on X, while Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Lega leader Matteo Salvini called the decision a “declaration of war by Brussels,” suggesting that “those who fear the voters’ decision often seek reassurance from the courts’ decision.”
Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch right-wing PVV, also supported Le Pen, stating, “I believe in her,” and expressing confidence that she would win her appeal, overturn the ban, and “become the President of France.”
Harald Vilimsky, an Austrian FPÖ MEP within the PfE group, spoke of a “scandalous decision,” while Tom Van Grieken, leader of Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, described the court ruling as an “attack on democracy.”
Santiago Abascal, leader of the Spanish party Vox, declared that the French people ‘cannot be silenced.’
Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli stated on X that the “pathetic and transparent attempt by declining elites to suppress the will of the people using the judicial system as a weapon” would fail.
Will protest votes rise in Europe?
Meanwhile, according to poll results released Monday by the Odoxa polling institute, Le Pen is France’s most popular politician with a 37% approval rating, slightly ahead of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (36%) and RN party leader Jordan Bardella (35%).
Regardless of the legal interpretation of the ruling, it appears to have deepened divisions within the French population and threatens to attract new sympathizers to the right.
For instance, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) believes this will help further mobilize the RN base ahead of the next elections.
In a recent statement, the ECFR warned that the ruling against Le Pen would have broader and significant consequences across Europe.
Mentioning the potential for a surge in “anti-establishment” movements in Europe, the ECFR pointed out that the view propagated by the Trump administration—that liberal elites have “captured political systems in the West”—would gain further legitimacy.
The ECFR suggested we will see the far-right more strongly asserting in the future that “the system” is working to silence them, noting this is already happening beyond Europe, citing Brazil’s far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, who claimed “the left and the system” work to “take opponents out of the game.”
Bardella as Le Pen’s strongest successor candidate
According to a survey of approximately 1,000 people conducted on Monday by the research and consulting group Elabe, 57% of respondents said the verdict against Le Pen was “normal” given the allegations against her.
The poll indicated that 89% of RN voters considered it unfair, while majorities among supporters of other parties deemed it fair.
Over 80% of voters for the New Popular Front (NFP) and Macron’s Ensemble party stated they did not believe the ruling against Le Pen was “political.”
A majority of 68% also felt it was fair for the ban to apply immediately, before appeals are concluded.
Nearly 90% of RN voters argued that Jordan Bardella is the best candidate to succeed Le Pen.
A few months ago, while the case against Le Pen was peaking, Bardella faced accusations of “betrayal” from some RN supporters for touring cities to promote his own book.
Bardella is emerging as a potential leader who could gain acceptance across Europe, seen as young and more “liberal,” unburdened by the political legacy of the Le Pen family.
Bardella frequented La Cave Saint-Germain bar, whose regulars over the years included Sarah Knafo (now an MEP and member of the far-right Patriots for Europe group), Pierre Gentillet (now a commentator on the far-right CNews channel), and Alexandre Loubet (now an MP). It was there he formed his current inner circle within the RN, which includes MP Pierre-Romain Thionnet.
On paper at least, Bardella exhibits significant policy differences from his mentor, Marine Le Pen. For example, he publicly supports Ukraine in its war against Russia.
While Marine Le Pen represents the “social” wing of the French far-right, Bardella is pushing for the creation of a “Ministry of State Efficiency,” modeled after Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Europe
Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.
Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.
The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.
“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.
Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.
“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.
Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.
In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:
“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”
The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.
Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.
The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.
Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.
The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.
Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.
The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.
Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.
Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”
He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.
A German government official said:
“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”
Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.
The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.
The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.
Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.
A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.
Europe
EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture
The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.
Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.
Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.
“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.
The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.
Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.
The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.
“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.
Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.
However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.
A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:
“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”
The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.
“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.
On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.
“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.
The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.
“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.
The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:
“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”
Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.
With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.
“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.
While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.
The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.
The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.
There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.
“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.
In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.
“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.
Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.
However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:
“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”
Europe
Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid
Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.
According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.
In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”
The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.
Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.
Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.
In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.
Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.
In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.
Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”
The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.
Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.
In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.
Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.
According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.
A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:
“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”
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