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JPMorgan warns of need for ‘reality check’ on phasing out fossil fuels

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JPMorgan has warned that the world needs a “reality check” on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, saying it could take “generations” to reach net-zero targets.

In a global energy strategy report sent to clients this week, the US bank said efforts to reduce the use of coal, oil and natural gas have been hampered by high interest rates, inflation and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Christyan Malek, JPMorgan’s head of global energy strategy and lead author of the report, told the Financial Times: “While the net zero target is still some way off, we have to face the fact that the variables have changed. Interest rates are much higher. Government debt is much higher and the geopolitical environment is structurally different. This cost, which will be $3 to $4 million a year, is in a different macro environment,” he said.

Malek argued that the level of investment required would put pressure on governments to back away from more aggressive energy policies. The Scottish government, for example, on Thursday shelved its ambitious plan to cut carbon emissions by 75 per cent by 2030, admitting the target was unachievable.

JPMorgan said in its report that changing the world’s energy system is “a process that should be measured in decades or generations, not years”.

The bank added that investments in renewable energy ‘currently offer low returns’ and there is even a risk of social unrest if energy prices rise sharply.

The report comes after oil companies such as Shell and BP cut their climate targets this year and hundreds of companies including Microsoft, Unilever and JBS failed to set targets ambitious enough to be endorsed by a ‘science-based targets’ initiative set up after the UN’s COP26 climate summit in Glasgow.

Malek noted that there is no guarantee that demand for oil and gas will peak in 2030, as populations in developing countries begin to buy more cars and fly more, as predicted by the International Energy Agency.

JPMorgan estimates that the world will need 108 million barrels of oil a day in 2030, and building more wind, solar and electric vehicle capacity could add another 2 million barrels a day to that figure.

“We are at a tipping point in terms of demand. More and more of the world has access to energy, and more and more of the world wants to use that energy to improve their standard of living. If this growth continues, it will put enormous pressure on energy systems and governments.

JPMorgan is a leading financier of fossil fuel and low-carbon energy projects. The bank has signed $101 billion of fossil fuel deals and $71 billion of low-carbon deals in 2021 and 2022, according to BloombergNEF data.

Chief executive Jamie Dimon told a US congressional hearing in 2022 that the bank would continue to invest in large oil and gas projects, that pulling out of such deals would be ‘the road to hell for America’ and that ‘the world is not getting the energy transition right’.

Echoing JPMorgan, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday that higher interest rates would make the transition to a net-zero global economy ‘even more difficult and costly’.

Wood Mackenzie chief economist Peter Martin said that “the rising cost of capital has profound implications for the energy and natural resources industries” and that high interest rates disproportionately affect renewable energy and nuclear power due to their high capital intensity and low returns.

Wood Mackenzie added that many companies in the oil and gas sector have low levels of debt and will be relatively unaffected by higher interest rates.

AMERICA

Trump appoints Gaetz as Justice Secretary, Gabbard as Intelligence Chief

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U.S. President-elect Tulsi Gabbard has begun making new appointments to her cabinet, with former President Donald Trump taking to social media to announce these prominent selections.

Trump confirmed the appointment of one of his most loyal supporters, Matt Gaetz, a Florida Congressman, as Secretary of Justice. Gaetz, known for his strong conservative stance, has been at the center of various investigations, and some Republican senators have voiced reservations about his nomination.

“Matt will end gun-grabbing, secure our borders, dismantle criminal organizations, and restore Americans’ faith and trust in the Department of Justice,” Trump said in a statement.

Attorney General under scrutiny

Trump defended Gaetz’s record, citing his outspoken defense during previous investigations, where Gaetz actively opposed what he referred to as the “Russia hoax.”

In June, the House Ethics Committee launched an investigation into Gaetz over allegations of sexual misconduct, drug use, and obstruction of justice. Gaetz has denied any wrongdoing and has consistently maintained his innocence. The Justice Department spent two years investigating claims that Gaetz engaged in inappropriate conduct with a minor and violated federal sex trafficking laws. However, in 2022, the department closed the investigation without filing charges.

Israel lobby reacts to Gaetz’s appointment

Gaetz’s appointment has stirred reactions, particularly within the Israel lobby in the United States. In 2018, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) and the Republican Jewish Coalition criticized Gaetz for inviting Charles Johnson, a known Holocaust denier, as his guest to the State of the Union address. Johnson had publicly expressed doubts about the Holocaust, controversially claiming that “only 250,000 died of disease” rather than 6 million Jews.

Gaetz denied that Johnson was a Holocaust denier, telling BuzzFeed: “He’s not a Holocaust denier and he’s not anti-Semitic. He’s a provocateur. I should have vetted him better before inviting him to the State of the Union; I regret that I didn’t. I take responsibility for that.”

Former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard to lead Intelligence Agency

In addition to Gaetz’s nomination, Trump announced former Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard as the Director of National Intelligence.

“For more than two decades, Tulsi has fought for our country and the freedoms of all Americans,” Trump stated. Gabbard, a former representative from Hawaii, served in the National Guard and held her House seat from 2013 to 2021. In 2022, she left the Democratic Party and became an independent before aligning with the Republican Party. “She is now a proud Republican!” Trump added.

Gabbard gained national attention during the 2020 Democratic primaries. In 2017, she traveled to Syria and controversially remarked that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad “is not an enemy of the United States,” explaining that her visit aimed to “see and hear directly from the Syrian people.”

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Trump continues to fill his cabinet with Israel supporters

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President-elect Donald Trump continues to shape his cabinet, set to take office in January. Trump has nominated South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem to lead the Department of Homeland Security. She will work closely with Border Czar Tom Homan to “secure the border and ensure that our American homeland is safe from our enemies,” Trump stated.

Kristi Noem, a devout Christian and the first woman elected governor of South Dakota, is now in her second term. Reflecting on her leadership in South Dakota, Trump highlighted Noem’s dedication to border security: “Kristi has been very strong on border security. She was the first governor to send National Guard troops to aid Texas during the Biden Border Crisis—a commitment she’s upheld eight times.”

Noem has faced criticism for controversial remarks suggesting South Dakota’s indigenous tribes benefit from the drug cartel industry. This statement led to her being banned from all nine reservations in the state.

Although not a border state governor, Noem has consistently taken a tough stance on immigration. In 2010, she supported an effort to block the Obama administration’s lawsuit against Arizona’s immigration law. During Trump’s first term, she called for punitive actions against sanctuary cities that refuse to cooperate with federal immigration authorities.

Noem is also known as a strong supporter of Israel. Earlier this year, she signed a bill mandating that the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s (IHRA) definition of anti-Semitism be used in discrimination investigations. The bill, titled “Ensuring the Safety of God’s Chosen People,” garnered praise from former Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, who called Noem a “true friend of Israel.”

In March 2024, Noem faced a lawsuit from Travelers United, a consumer advocacy group, after endorsing a Texas-based cosmetic dentist without disclosing a financial relationship. Travelers United claimed Noem had begun “working as a social media influencer,” promoting services without transparency. Noem clarified on X (formerly Twitter) that she “never received any money” for these alleged endorsements.

New Israeli Ambassador Huckabee: ‘There is no such thing as a Palestinian’

Donald Trump announced that Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor, will serve as U.S. ambassador to Israel. A long-time ally of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Huckabee has consistently supported Jewish settlers and backs Israel’s claim to annex parts of the occupied West Bank.

“Mike Huckabee loves Israel and the people of Israel. He will work tirelessly for peace in the Middle East,” Trump stated. Huckabee, an evangelical pastor and host on the Trinity Broadcasting Network (TBN), is a staunch defender of Israel’s historical rights in the West Bank and believes in Israel’s right to annex this region.

Fox News host Hegseth tapped to lead Pentagon

Trump’s selection of Fox News host and former military officer Pete Hegseth as head of the Pentagon surprised many. Hegseth, a vocal America First proponent, lacks traditional government or Pentagon experience, sparking discussion on Trump’s unconventional choice.

“Pete is tough, smart, and a true believer in America First. With Pete at the helm, America’s military will be great again, and our enemies will take notice,” Trump remarked.

Though Hegseth’s selection deviates from Trump’s other traditional security appointments, he has gained Trump’s respect through his book, The War on Our Warriors, which criticizes left-wing attitudes toward U.S. troops. Hegseth is a decorated Army combat veteran and former CEO of Concerned Veterans for America, a group funded by the Koch brothers that advocates for outsourcing veterans’ healthcare.

Hegseth also garnered Trump’s favor through his advocacy for the pardons of service members convicted of war crimes, including 1st Lieutenant Clint Lorance and Major Mathew Golsteyn.

CIA appointment: Ratcliffe’s anti-Iran stance

John Ratcliffe, former Director of National Intelligence, has been appointed CIA Director, reinforcing Trump’s hardline stance against Iran. Ratcliffe replaces Bill Burns, who led Biden’s attempts to broker ceasefires in Gaza.

An outspoken critic of Biden’s foreign policy, Ratcliffe has accused the administration of downplaying intelligence on Hamas to avoid escalation. He argues that deprioritizing Middle Eastern intelligence has left the U.S. vulnerable to terrorist threats. Ratcliffe also alleged Iranian interference in the 2020 election, accusing the regime of trying to “foment social unrest” in the U.S.

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AMERICA

Ukraine offers natural resources to win Trump’s support

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The Ukrainian government’s “victory plan” for the incoming Donald Trump administration seeks to influence the US president-elect by highlighting potential business deals, access to raw materials, and troop deployments.

According to The Financial Times (FT), Ukrainian and European officials report that Ukraine’s allies in Europe and the US, including senior Republicans, are consulting on how best to propose initiatives that encourage closer cooperation with Kyiv rather than cut essential aid to the country.

These proposals stem from concerns among Ukrainian and European officials that Trump may move quickly toward a peace deal with Russia, potentially jeopardizing Western support for Ukraine.

Two of the ideas reportedly presented to Trump are outlined in Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan.” They were later presented to the Ukrainian president during his meeting with Trump in New York in September.

One proposal suggests replacing some US troops stationed in Europe with Ukrainian forces after the war ends. The other, initially conceived by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, proposes sharing Ukraine’s critical natural resources with Western partners, according to sources involved in drafting Zelensky’s plan.

A source familiar with the meeting said Trump expressed interest in these two points.

Ukrainian business leaders are also in talks with the government about granting Trump “investment screening” powers that would allow him to select who can do business in the country. An insider described this concept as “ABC—anybody but China,” a stance believed to resonate with Trump.

Certain Ukrainian industries, particularly those relying on Chinese technology and materials like telecommunications, could transition to US suppliers, potentially attracting Western investment. While still in its early stages, some business leaders close to the presidential administration believe this idea could appeal to Trump.

After Trump’s re-election last week, Zelensky reported a “great” first phone call. However, officials in Kyiv and its allies worry the US could reduce military support when Republicans take office in January.

Officials added that Ukraine and its allies fear Russian President Vladimir Putin, strengthened by Russia’s battlefield successes, may “drive a hard bargain” and pressure Washington into a peace deal favoring Moscow.

A person involved in drafting Kyiv’s proposal remarked, “The first to blink loses this game. Putin thinks he is on a winning track and can secure everything he wants.”

Meanwhile, European officials are concerned about being excluded from Trump-led negotiations and lacking influence over any potential solutions that could impact European security in the medium term.

Western allies have reacted somewhat indifferently to the “victory plan,” especially regarding the call for NATO membership for Kyiv and advanced weapons support.

An individual involved in the planning stated that Ukraine began drafting its proposals over the summer “to establish our narrative before Trump establishes his.”

Long frustrated by President Joe Biden’s reluctance to escalate military support, Kyiv hopes Trump will find the points specifically tailored for him compelling.

“The level of dissatisfaction with the Biden administration had reached a point where they felt it was time for change, and that this change [to Trump] could be beneficial,” the source said.

Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, described the offer to the incoming US president as “a strategic move to demonstrate that Ukraine is not a burden on the West.”

“Trump wants to be a winner, not a loser. To be a winner, he needs to show Putin his place,” Merezhko added.

Sources also indicate that Kyiv aims to “appease the Trump camp” by replacing Oksana Markarova, its ambassador to Washington. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson had called for Markarova’s dismissal after she organized an all-Democrat visit to a US munitions factory for Zelensky in September.

Former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was reportedly offered the post but declined.

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