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JPMorgan warns of need for ‘reality check’ on phasing out fossil fuels

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JPMorgan has warned that the world needs a “reality check” on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, saying it could take “generations” to reach net-zero targets.

In a global energy strategy report sent to clients this week, the US bank said efforts to reduce the use of coal, oil and natural gas have been hampered by high interest rates, inflation and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Christyan Malek, JPMorgan’s head of global energy strategy and lead author of the report, told the Financial Times: “While the net zero target is still some way off, we have to face the fact that the variables have changed. Interest rates are much higher. Government debt is much higher and the geopolitical environment is structurally different. This cost, which will be $3 to $4 million a year, is in a different macro environment,” he said.

Malek argued that the level of investment required would put pressure on governments to back away from more aggressive energy policies. The Scottish government, for example, on Thursday shelved its ambitious plan to cut carbon emissions by 75 per cent by 2030, admitting the target was unachievable.

JPMorgan said in its report that changing the world’s energy system is “a process that should be measured in decades or generations, not years”.

The bank added that investments in renewable energy ‘currently offer low returns’ and there is even a risk of social unrest if energy prices rise sharply.

The report comes after oil companies such as Shell and BP cut their climate targets this year and hundreds of companies including Microsoft, Unilever and JBS failed to set targets ambitious enough to be endorsed by a ‘science-based targets’ initiative set up after the UN’s COP26 climate summit in Glasgow.

Malek noted that there is no guarantee that demand for oil and gas will peak in 2030, as populations in developing countries begin to buy more cars and fly more, as predicted by the International Energy Agency.

JPMorgan estimates that the world will need 108 million barrels of oil a day in 2030, and building more wind, solar and electric vehicle capacity could add another 2 million barrels a day to that figure.

“We are at a tipping point in terms of demand. More and more of the world has access to energy, and more and more of the world wants to use that energy to improve their standard of living. If this growth continues, it will put enormous pressure on energy systems and governments.

JPMorgan is a leading financier of fossil fuel and low-carbon energy projects. The bank has signed $101 billion of fossil fuel deals and $71 billion of low-carbon deals in 2021 and 2022, according to BloombergNEF data.

Chief executive Jamie Dimon told a US congressional hearing in 2022 that the bank would continue to invest in large oil and gas projects, that pulling out of such deals would be ‘the road to hell for America’ and that ‘the world is not getting the energy transition right’.

Echoing JPMorgan, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday that higher interest rates would make the transition to a net-zero global economy ‘even more difficult and costly’.

Wood Mackenzie chief economist Peter Martin said that “the rising cost of capital has profound implications for the energy and natural resources industries” and that high interest rates disproportionately affect renewable energy and nuclear power due to their high capital intensity and low returns.

Wood Mackenzie added that many companies in the oil and gas sector have low levels of debt and will be relatively unaffected by higher interest rates.

AMERICA

Biden plans to write off Ukraine’s $4.6bn debt ahead of Trump

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President Joe Biden’s administration has officially notified Congress of its intention to forgive Ukraine’s $4.65 billion debt, a move tied to ongoing efforts to support the country amid its conflict with Russia.

This debt represents half of the $9 billion provided to Kyiv as part of the $61 billion aid package approved by Washington in April. Unlike other forms of assistance, this funding was issued as conditionally repayable loans, with provisions allowing the United States President to cancel up to 50% of the debt if deemed necessary.

In a statement, the U.S. State Department explained that the debt cancellation is intended to “help Ukraine win” and serves the national interests of the U.S., the EU, G7+, and NATO.”

According to Bloomberg, President Biden is determined to maximize aid to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump assumes office. However, the decision to write off the debt has drawn sharp criticism from Republicans.

Republican Senator Rand Paul argued that the Biden administration’s decision places undue financial burden on the American public. He pledged to demand a vote in the Senate to challenge the proposal.

Despite this, Bloomberg notes that any effort to overturn the debt cancellation would require approval from both houses of Congress, a scenario that appears unlikely given the Democratic majority in the Senate. Furthermore, President Biden holds veto power, making reversal of the decision even more challenging.

Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced plans to exhaust all remaining aid approved by Congress before President Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized that one of the administration’s key goals is to position Ukraine as strongly as possible—both militarily and at the negotiating table.

Pentagon officials reported that $9.3 billion in military aid is currently in the pipeline. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh confirmed plans for weekly arms deliveries to Kyiv, with the aim of expediting aid distribution before the presidential transition.

On November 20, the Pentagon unveiled an additional $275 million military aid package for Ukraine, further underscoring the administration’s commitment to strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

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AMERICA

Donald Trump taps Howard Lutnick to lead Commerce Department

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Donald Trump has announced his intention to nominate Wall Street investor and campaign donor Howard Lutnick as the new head of the U.S. Department of Commerce, placing the billionaire at the forefront of implementing the sweeping tariffs promised during his presidential campaign.

Lutnick, who co-chaired Trump’s transition team, had previously been considered for the role of Treasury Secretary. He is also the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, a prominent investment firm.

In a statement on Tuesday, Trump declared that Lutnick would be “directly responsible” for leading the Commerce Department and overseeing the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).

The USTR, established in 1974 to manage negotiations with U.S. trading partners, traditionally reports directly to the president. If confirmed by the Senate, the 63-year-old Lutnick will play a pivotal role in aiding U.S. businesses and executing Trump’s proposed tariffs on international trade partners.

Trump has outlined plans for a 60% tariff on imports from China and a global tariff of up to 20%, signaling a major shift in U.S. trade policy.

Lutnick, despite lacking prior government experience, has been a steadfast advocate for Trump’s economic agenda. During a New York campaign rally, Lutnick remarked, “When was America great? At the turn of the century, our economy was floundering! That was 125 years ago. We had no income tax and all we had were tariffs.”

While Lutnick has emerged as a major donor to Trump, he has also supported establishment Democrats and Republicans in the past, including Chuck Schumer and Jeb Bush. He contributed to both Hillary Clinton’s 2008 and 2016 campaigns, hosting a fundraiser for her in 2015. Lutnick maintains a personal friendship with the Clintons, noting their attendance at a Cantor Fitzgerald fundraiser in September 2022.

Lutnick has also maintained a long-standing relationship with Trump, even appearing on The Celebrity Apprentice in 2008. He disclosed to the Financial Times in October that he has donated over $10 million to Trump’s 2024 campaign and another $500,000 to the transition team, totaling approximately $75 million.

Treasury Secretary selection process still uncertain

The position of Treasury Secretary, one of the most significant roles in Trump’s administration, remains undecided. Lutnick’s name has been floated for the role, though he faces competition from hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, private equity billionaire Marc Rowan, and former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh.

Marc Rowan, the CEO of Apollo Global Management, has emerged as a leading contender and is expected to meet with Trump to present his case. Rowan’s supporters cite his extensive expertise in financial markets, though competition remains fierce.

Forecasting site Polymarket currently lists Warsh as the favorite for Treasury Secretary, followed by Bessent, Rowan, and William Hagerty. If unsuccessful in his bid for Treasury Secretary, Bessent is reportedly vying for the chairmanship of the National Economic Council.

Trump names Mehmet Oz to run Medicare and Medicaid

Trump also announced on Tuesday his nomination of Dr. Mehmet Oz to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Describing Oz as “one of the most talented physicians” capable of “making America healthy again,” Trump expressed confidence in Oz’s ability to reduce waste and fraud within the nation’s largest government agency.

Dr. Oz, a former heart surgeon and Columbia University professor, rose to prominence as Oprah Winfrey’s health expert before hosting his own popular talk show. However, his career has been controversial, with critics accusing him of promoting scientifically dubious theories and unproven treatments.

Oz’s political experience includes a 2022 Senate race in Pennsylvania, where he was endorsed by Trump but ultimately lost to Democrat John Fetterman.

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U.S. may start its plan to separate Google from Chrome

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The Department of Justice (DOJ) may move forward with plans to force the sale of Google’s Chrome web browser as part of its ongoing antitrust case against Alphabet (Google).

According to sources familiar with the case, the department intends to ask the judge—who ruled in August that Google illegally monopolized the search market—to address concerns related to artificial intelligence (AI) and the Android smartphone operating system. This information was reported by Bloomberg.

Antitrust officials, along with participating state attorneys, are expected to recommend that federal Judge Amit Mehta impose data licensing requirements on Google. These officials have indicated that Chrome, the world’s most widely used browser, is a critical gateway for many users accessing Google Search. For this reason, they are urging the judge to mandate the sale of Chrome.

Officials stated that a Chrome sale could be considered later if other settlement measures fail to foster a more competitive market. Currently, Google Chrome commands a dominant 61% share of the U.S. browser market, according to StatCounter, a web traffic analysis service.

Over the past three months, state attorneys interviewed numerous companies to prepare their recommendations. Officials noted that some recommendations are still under review, and details may evolve before submission.

While a proposal to force Google to sell its Android platform was considered, officials have since stepped back from this more aggressive option.

If Judge Mehta adopts these recommendations, the ruling could significantly reshape the online search market and influence the emerging artificial intelligence industry.

The case, originally filed during the Trump administration and continued under President Joe Biden, represents one of the most aggressive efforts to regulate a major tech company in decades. The last comparable attempt was Washington’s unsuccessful bid to break up Microsoft in the early 2000s.

Chrome plays a crucial role in Google’s advertising business by providing user data that enhances ad targeting, a primary revenue source. Additionally, Google has been leveraging Chrome to promote Gemini, its new AI bot. Gemini has the potential to evolve from a simple answer bot to a comprehensive assistant, supporting users across the web.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh estimates that Chrome could be worth $15–20 billion if sold, considering its more than 3 billion monthly active users. However, Bob O’Donnell of TECHnalysis Research notes that Chrome’s value depends on its integration with other services, stating: “It’s not directly monetizable. It acts as a gateway to other things. Monetization would depend on how buyers link Chrome to their services.”

Google has strongly opposed the DOJ’s recommendations. Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google’s vice president of regulatory affairs, criticized the move as government overreach, arguing: “This agenda goes far beyond the legal issues in this case and will harm consumers, developers, and American technological leadership at a critical time.”

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt echoed this sentiment in an interview with CNBC. He emphasized the value of Chrome in enhancing the Google ecosystem, stating: “Singling out these companies won’t fundamentally solve the broader issues.”

In a blog post, Google warned that under new ownership, Chrome might no longer remain free or receive the same level of investment, potentially leading to a shift in its business model.

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