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Policymakers gather in Washington as Middle East tensions swell

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The spring meetings of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are taking place in Washington from 17-19 April.

Finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world are attending the spring meetings, and among the topics on the agenda are debt relief for countries in difficulty, the Ukraine issue and what to do with Russia’s confiscated assets.

Of course, the interest rate/inflation cycle and the fate of possible interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are also on the agenda. Equity markets were thrown into a bit of turmoil this week when Fed Chairman Jay Powell signalled that the Fed was in no hurry to cut interest rates.

According to IMF President Kristalina Georgieva, the Fed is doing the right thing. “The Fed is not yet ready to cut, and rightly so,” Georgieva told Bloomberg on Thursday.

Noting that the key question at the Washington meetings is “how long the Fed will keep rates high”, the IMF chief said “all countries are talking about it and all eyes are on the US”.

Georgieva argued that the strengthening of the dollar was “of course worrying” and said that the economy was “somewhat overheating”, partly due to the US fiscal stance.

Georgieva added that she remains optimistic that conditions in the US will allow the Fed to start cutting interest rates later this year.

Georgieva calls for fiscal tightening

Georgieva also called on advanced economies, which have greatly increased their debt levels in recent years, to tighten their fiscal policies to deal with the pandemic crisis.

“Countries urgently need to build fiscal resilience for the next shock. It is important to rebuild fiscal buffers,” she said.

According to Georgieva, she argued that central banks struggling with inflation could also “get some help from the fiscal side”.

Georgieva’s comments before the start of the meetings were also relatively “pessimistic”. According to her, “a stagnant and disappointing decade” lies ahead. Without a course correction,” the IMF chief said, “we are heading for the tepid twenties”.

Georgieva’s comments echoed the findings of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report. The report said: “Faced with a variety of headwinds, the outlook for future growth has also deteriorated. Looking ahead five years, global growth is projected to slow to just over 3 percent by 2029. Our analysis suggests that by the end of the decade, growth could be about one percentage point below the pre-pandemic (2000-19) average. This threatens to reverse improvements in living standards, while the imbalance of the slowdown between richer and poorer countries could limit prospects for global income convergence,” the report says.

The report stresses that a prolonged low-growth scenario, coupled with higher interest rates, could threaten debt sustainability and limit the ability of governments to tackle economic stagnation and invest in “social or environmental initiatives”.

Development of poor countries will have to wait for another spring

Half of the world’s 75 poorest countries have seen their income gap with the richest economies widen for the first time this century, marking a historic reversal in development, the World Bank said in a report published on Monday.

According to the report, the gap between per capita income growth in the poorest countries and per capita income growth in the richest countries has continued to widen over the past five years.

Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank and one of the report’s authors, told Reuters: “For the first time we see that there is no convergence. They are getting poorer. We are seeing a very serious structural regression, a reversal in the world … so we are ringing alarm bells here,” Mr Köse told Reuters.

The report said 75 countries eligible for grants and interest-free loans from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) risked a lost decade of development without ambitious policy changes and significant international support.

Köse said that growth in many IDA countries had already started to decline before the COVID-19 pandemic, but that 2020-2024 will see the weakest half-decade of growth (3.4 per cent) since the early 1990s.

More than half of the IDA countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, 14 in East Asia and eight in Latin America and the Caribbean. Thirty-one of these countries have a per capita income of less than $1,315 per year. These include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan and Haiti.

Conversely, in addition to the ‘tactical’ considerations that the Fed must take into account when determining its interest rate policy, fluctuations in bond markets indicate that a significant rethink may be required regarding the eventuality of interest rates once the latest inflationary wave has passed.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which is highly sensitive to short-term Fed policy, has risen in recent months as might be expected. However, longer-term yields have followed the same pattern.The 10-year US Treasury bond, which stood at 3.87% at the beginning of February, was yielding 4.63% two days ago.With the exception of a few weeks last autumn, long-term yields have not been this high since 2007.

In 2009, when the economic crisis was devastating the global economy, long-term Treasuries offered higher yields than in 2016, when they were ‘reasonably healthy’. The consensus view at the Fed was that a policy of 5 per cent or higher interest rates would constrain economic activity and put inflation on a downward path.Inflation data and bond market behaviour undermine this view. There is a widespread view that high interest rates may not be as much of a drag on the economy as had been thought, but rather reflect a ‘new normal’.

AMERICA

US announces new tariffs on China

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US President Joe Biden has slapped new tariffs on cheap electric vehicles, batteries, solar equipment and other products imported from China.

“President Biden’s economic plan supports investment and creates good jobs in key sectors vital to America’s economic future and national security,” the White House said in a statement.

Claiming that China’s “unfair trade practices” in technology transfer, intellectual property and innovation threaten American companies and workers, Washington said Beijing was also flooding global markets with “artificially low-priced exports”.

In this context, the White House announced that Joe Biden had directed the US Trade Representative to increase tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act in order to “protect American workers and businesses” in “response to China’s unfair trade practices” and to “remedy the resulting injury”.

Arguing that American workers and businesses can outperform anyone else “as long as there is fair competition”, the White House claimed that the Chinese government has long resorted to “unfair, non-market practices”.

“China’s forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft have created unacceptable risks to America’s supply chains and economic security by allowing it to control 70, 80 and even 90 per cent of global production of critical inputs needed for our technologies, infrastructure, energy and health care,” the statement said.

It also noted that these “non-market policies and practices” have contributed to China’s growing overcapacity and export surges that “threaten to significantly harm” American workers, businesses and communities.

“The actions taken today against China’s unfair trade practices are carefully targeted at strategic sectors where the United States, under President Biden, has made historic investments to create and sustain good-paying jobs, unlike recent Republican proposals in Congress that would threaten jobs and raise costs across all sectors,” the Biden administration said, also criticising Republican proposals.

The new tariffs announced by the White House are as follows:

– From 25 per cent to 100 per cent in 2024 for electric vehicles;

– Tariffs on lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles from 7.5 per cent to 25 per cent in 2024;

– For semiconductors, from 25 per cent to 50 per cent by 2025;

– For solar cells from 25% to 50% in 2024;

– 0% to 50% in 2024 for certain medical products such as syringes and needles;

– Tariffs on certain steel and aluminium products from 0-7.5% to 25% in 2024.

National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard told reporters that they were designed to ensure that US green technology and manufacturing industries “are not undermined by a flood of unfairly low-priced exports from China in areas such as electric vehicle batteries, critical medical devices, steel and aluminium semiconductors, and solar energy”.

According to Axios, Biden administration officials said they do not know how or if Beijing will retaliate, but they expect Beijing to speak publicly and raise its voice.

“I hope we don’t see a significant response from China, but that’s always a possibility,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Bloomberg.

White House officials argue that the tariffs will not increase US inflation because the amount of goods they target is too small.

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Pro-Trump think tank outlines ‘America First’ foreign policy

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A think tank working to lay the groundwork for a second Trump administration if former US President Donald Trump wins again in November has published a new book, An America First Approach to U.S. National Security, which aims to detail the so-called “America First” national security policy.

The book was written by former Trump advisers, including Robert Lighthizer, who served as US Trade Representative, Michael Waltz, a Florida Republican and former Green Beret, and Fred Fleitz, who served as Trump’s chief of staff on the National Security Council.

All of these names are rumoured to be in the running for senior positions if Trump wins the presidential election in November.

Think tanks working to ‘help Trump avoid the mistakes of 2016’

The book was produced by the think tank America First Policy Institute (AFPI). According to the Associated Press, the group, like “Project 2025” by another pro-Trump think tank, the Heritage Foundation, is trying to help Trump avoid the mistakes of 2016, when he entered the White House largely unprepared.

It includes proposals such as tying future military aid to Ukraine to its participation in peace talks with Russia, banning Chinese citizens from buying property within 50 miles of US government buildings, and staffing the national security sector with Donald Trump’s aides.

The institute is also working on dozens of draft executive orders and developing a training programme for future political appointees. The Heritage Foundation, on the other hand, is compiling a comprehensive personnel database and preparing its own policy guidelines.

The book’s authors are in contact with Trump

Both groups stress their independence from the Trump campaign and insist that the only policies Trump supports are those expressed by the candidate himself.

But Fred Fleitz, the book’s editor, said he and retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who served for a time as Trump’s deputy national security adviser and wrote parts of the book, are in frequent contact with the former president, asking for feedback and discussing issues such as Ukraine at length.”We hope these are things he’s thinking about. We don’t speak for him, but I think he would approve,” said Fleitz, who previously served as chief of staff to the National Security Council.

Fleitz said he hoped the book would be an “easy-to-use” guide that “provides an intellectual foundation for an America First approach” to national security.

Kellogg said: “This is grand strategy. You don’t start with policies. You start with strategies. And that’s what we’ve done,” he added.

Criticism of ‘globalist’ strategies

The book characterises the current trajectory of US national security as a failure, with the foreign policy establishment accused of adopting an interventionist and ‘globalist’ approach at the expense of America’s ‘national interest’.

The book offers some premises for how a future Trump administration might approach foreign policy issues such as the war in Ukraine.

Trump has said that, if elected, he would resolve the issue before Inauguration Day in January.

The book’s chapter on the war discusses how the conflict developed rather than how to end it. But it does say that the US should make future military aid conditional on Ukraine’s participation in peace talks with Russia.

Continue arming Ukraine after ‘peace’ is established

Predicting that the Ukrainian military will lose ground over time, the report recommends that the US “should not continue to send weapons into a stalemate that Ukraine will ultimately find difficult to win”.

In the event of a peace agreement, however, the US would continue to arm Ukraine as a deterrent against Russia.

The authors propose a framework in which Ukraine “would not be asked to give up its goal of regaining all of its territory” but would accept diplomacy “with the understanding that this would require a diplomatic breakthrough in the future and would probably not happen before (Russian President Vladimir) Putin leaves office”.

The book also acknowledges that Ukrainians “will find it difficult to accept a negotiated peace that does not return all of their territory or, at least for the time being, does not hold Russia accountable for the carnage it has caused in Ukraine”.

Nevertheless, the authors declare their agreement with Donald Trump’s words on CNN in 2023: “I want everybody to stop dying” and that “this is a good first step”.

An architecture for Ukraine ‘focused on bilateral security defence’

The book blames President Joe Biden for the war and repeats Trump’s claim that “Putin would never have invaded Ukraine” if he had been in office.

The book’s main argument in defence of this claim is that Putin “sees Trump as strong and decisive”.

Looking to the future, the book suggests that Putin could be persuaded to join peace talks if Biden and other NATO leaders offered to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership for an extended period.

Instead, it suggests that the US should establish “a long-term security architecture for Ukraine’s defence, focusing on bilateral security defence”.

It also calls for a tax on Russian energy sales to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction.

According to the book, the prolongation of the war in Ukraine risks deepening the alliance between Russia, China, Iran and the Democratic Republic of Korea, which the think tank calls a new “anti-American axis”.

China ‘most urgent national security threat2

“As serious as the war in Ukraine is, it is not the greatest national security threat to our country. That threat is China,” the authors write.

The book describes China as the country’s “most pressing national security threat”, eager to replace the United States as the world’s leading power. The authors propose a “hawkish policy”, building on the approaches of both the Trump years and the Biden administration, to make Beijing’s policies “largely irrelevant to American life”.

By elevating economic concerns about China above national security concerns, the book proposes a reciprocal approach that would deny Beijing access to US markets in the same way that American companies are blocked in China.

It also recommends more rigorous vetting of US adversaries, particularly Chinese-owned cyber and technology companies, to ensure they are not collecting sensitive information.

It also recommends that Chinese citizens be prohibited from buying property within a 50-mile (80 km) radius of any US government property.

AFPI is working with US states to introduce legislation to ban foreign ownership of farmland. So far, such legislation has been passed in Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, Montana, North and South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia and Utah.

He is also calling for visa restrictions on Chinese students wishing to study in the US and a ban on TikTok and other Chinese apps over privacy concerns.

However, Trump has said he opposes legislation that would force the sale of TikTok or block its access to the US. Last week, Trump stepped up his criticism of Biden over his proposal to ban the social media app TikTok, claiming that the current president supported the ban to “help his friends on Facebook get richer and more dominant”.

US investment strengthens People’s Liberation Army

“Under America First, the United States must focus its military power on deterring China’s peer threat, using the full spectrum of political, economic and military power,” Waltz writes in a chapter of the book.

The book argues that decades of US efforts to transform China into a responsible partner on the global stage have been a “self-defeating policy”.

The authors argue that American investment in China has provided liquidity for Beijing’s high-tech projects, which have strengthened the People’s Liberation Army by reinforcing military-civilian fusion.

Continuation of tariffs against China

The book called for the continuation of all tariffs imposed on China during the Trump administration, while urging the US to develop supply chains “based solely on American workers, our allies, or our friendly neighbours in the Americas”.

They thanked the Biden administration for restricting US investment in sensitive Chinese sectors such as artificial intelligence, and called for further measures to sever American investment ties with organisations associated with the Chinese Communist Party.

Taiwan’s ‘defence’ prioritised, partnership with Japan critical

While the US is debating how to respond to a possible Chinese intervention in Taiwan, the authors of the book also address this issue.

The book clearly states that “the island must be defended”. The authors argue that protecting Taiwan’s security is in both the economic and national security interests of the United States.

But the authors insist that the US should demand more from its allies.

“If allied countries were allowed to contribute in their own way, they could significantly reduce the strategic burden on the United States,” the book says.

The US-Japan alliance “sets the standard” for a successful “America First” foreign policy, the authors write, praising Tokyo’s decision to increase defence spending and acquire stand-off missiles.

As for the Quad, an informal four-way partnership between the United States, Japan, India and Australia, the authors encourage “closer military integration” to counter the rise of China.

Call for more military support for Israel

Ellie Cohanim, Trump’s former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for ‘Monitoring and Combating Anti-Semitism’, explained what the ‘America First’ strategy means for the Israeli military.

Cohanim wrote that the US should send Israel a fleet of 25 Lockheed Martin F-35s, a Boeing F-15 EX and an Apache E attack helicopter.

Cohanim wrote that the US should give Israel some of the billions of dollars in military funding in Israeli currency so that Israel can spend it at home, and that Washington should force Arab states to accept Israel’s suspension of political negotiations with the Palestinians and subject the Palestinian people to “indefinite forced de-radicalisation”.

According to Cohanim, “peace in the Middle East will only be achieved through the reassertion of American power”.

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Biden preparing tariffs on Chinese EVs and strategic sectors

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According to Bloomberg, the administration of US President Joe Biden is preparing to announce a sweeping decision on tariffs against China next week that is expected to target key strategic sectors and reject the across-the-board increases sought by Donald Trump, citing people familiar with the matter.

The decision is the result of a review of the Section 301 tariffs, which were first introduced under Trump in 2018. The new tariffs will focus on sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs), batteries and solar cells, while existing taxes will largely remain in place.

While the yuan weakened on the news, the CSI 300 index of Chinese stocks rebounded after falling 0.6% in early trading.

Biden had also called for tariff increases on steel and aluminium

An announcement is expected on Tuesday, sources said.

Although the decision is likely to be delayed, it will still be one of the biggest moves in the US economic competition with China.

The new tariffs follow Biden’s call last month to increase tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium, and the formal launch of a new investigation into China’s shipbuilding sector.

The move comes after Biden last month proposed new 25% tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium as part of a series of steps to shore up the American steel industry and wink at workers in an election year.

The promise is seen as largely symbolic as China currently exports very little of either metal to the US.

Chinese foreign ministry responds and calls for tariffs to be lifted

China’s Foreign Ministry said the tariffs imposed by the previous US administration had “seriously disrupted” economic and trade exchanges between the two countries.

The ministry called on Washington to lift the restrictions, adding that China would take necessary measures to defend its rights and interests.

“The US has continued to politicise economic and trade issues instead of correcting its mistakes,” ministry spokesman Lin Jian told a regular briefing on Friday. Raising tariffs further is adding insult to injury,” Lin Jian said.

New tariffs will not take effect immediately

According to Bloomberg, the tariffs will not have an immediate impact on Chinese companies because the world’s leading EV manufacturers are staying away from the US market because of the tariffs.

Solar companies, on the other hand, mostly export to the US from third countries to avoid restrictions, and US companies also want higher tariffs on this trade.

China factor in the US election

Biden and Trump are vying to appear tough on China as they head into a November election rematch, Bloomberg reported.

Last month, Biden signed a bill that started the countdown for video-sharing platform TikTok to spin off from its Chinese parent ByteDance or leave the US market.

If re-elected, Trump has promised to raise tariffs on China across the board, imposing a 60 per cent tax on all goods imported from China.

Many Democrats oppose this approach, saying it would raise prices for US consumers already struggling with inflation.

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