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Navigating challenges: The G20’s pursuit under Indian presidency

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India is on the brink of hosting the prestigious annual G20 Leaders’ Summit this weekend. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, this event represents a golden opportunity to amplify its global influence. In this backdrop, Modi is skillfully harnessing the economic forum as a conduit for advancing both foreign policy imperatives and domestic concerns. The primary challenge confronting New Delhi lies in Ukraine and its quest to guide the divided consortium towards reconciliation amidst burgeoning geopolitical tensions.

Under Modi’s stewardship, India is ardently striving to demonstrate its capacity to shine on the grand global stage. A year at the helm of the G20 chairmanship has undeniably bolstered this aspiration. Just this week, Indian Information Minister Anurag Thakur proudly proclaimed that the nation had played host to more than 200 meetings across over 60 cities since assuming leadership from Indonesia last year.

India, a nation whose population has reportedly eclipsed that of China, is poised to act as a bridge, bridging the affluent economies with the burgeoning global south. Viewing the G20 as an optimal platform for this role, New Delhi has, this year, catapulted some of the most pressing concerns of the global south – food insecurity, climate change, and debt – to the pinnacle of the summit’s agenda. In a show of dedication, New Delhi hosted the Global South’s Voice Summit back in January, unifying perspectives from diverse governments and advocating for the inclusion of the African Union in the G20.

Simultaneously, New Delhi, recognizing the G20 presidency as a means to divert attention from its own domestic issues, made efforts to bring a sense of normalcy to the region. In May, it hosted a G20 tourism summit in the disputed Kashmir region. Regrettably, these endeavors did little to overshadow the ethnic violence that has plagued India’s northeastern state of Manipur.

The true measure of New Delhi’s G20 presidency, slated to conclude in December, hinges on the outcome of this impending summit and whether it culminates in a collective statement from its member states.

Convincing all G20 members to affix their signatures to a joint statement is bound to be a Herculean task for India. The nation is intricately engaged in managing relations with formidable counterparts like the United States and Russia, pursuing a delicate policy of equilibrium. France, for one, has declared its unwillingness to endorse any document at the summit that fails to condemn Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia has asserted its refusal to ratify any such document. The absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the summit further underscores the precarious nature of achieving consensus. Historically, the G20 meetings held under India’s leadership have failed to yield unanimous agreements.

Another looming uncertainty is whether the simmering rivalry between the United States and China will cast a shadow over the summit. Speaking about the implications of the tension between India and China on the summit, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan remarked, “It hinges on China. If China chooses, it possesses the option to play the role of a disruptor.”

Furthermore, the territorial discord between India and China remains unresolved. India had recently lodged a protest against China on August 29 for depicting the disputed border region of Arunachal Pradesh state as part of its territory. The Chinese government, in response, dismissed this action as a ‘routine exercise’ and urged India to exercise restraint in its interpretation.

India’s paramount objective for the summit is to forge a joint communiqué that harmonizes around less contentious topics. These include championing the inclusion of the African Union, pledging to fortify global food security, and advocating for the dissemination of clean energy technologies. India may strategically employ the qualifier ‘most members’ to highlight areas of disagreement, akin to last year’s communiqué in Bali, Indonesia.

Any failure to attain these objectives would undoubtedly be a source of consternation for Modi, who has invested considerable political capital in India’s G20 presidency.

DIPLOMACY

Athens postpones Mitsotakis-Erdoğan meeting after Imamoglu arrest

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The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has shaken diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Greece, leading Athens to announce the postponement of a planned meeting between the leaders of the two countries.

Greek government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis stated, “Given these developments, it is becoming difficult to organize the High-Level Cooperation Council between Greece and Türkiye immediately.”

The High-Level Council consists of a series of meetings aimed at improving relations through “soft politics,” as progress on contentious issues such as territorial disputes has stalled.

As Kathimerini recently reported, the meeting planned between Greek leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on April 8 was not yet finalized due to the political crisis in Türkiye, even though negotiations between Athens and Ankara had reached their final stage.

The spokesperson added, “We are monitoring the developments in Türkiye. The situation remains fluid and concerning. Our stance on Imamoglu has not changed. Concessions on the rule of law and political freedoms are unacceptable, and convincing answers are needed for any concessions made.”

Marinakis mentioned that the issue could be discussed by the foreign ministers of both countries at the NATO foreign ministers’ summit in Brussels in early April.

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Trump’s proposed fees on Chinese ships threaten US maritime industry

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Industry executives stated on Monday at a US Trade Representative (USTR) hearing that President Donald Trump’s plan to revitalize the US shipbuilding industry is likely to backfire, as it relies on proposed fees for China-linked vessels that would harm domestic ship operators, ports, exporters, and employment.

The discussion centers on the stacking of fees on Chinese-built ships, which could exceed $3 million per visit to US ports. The Trump administration claims these fees will deter China’s increasing commercial and military dominance in open seas and encourage domestic shipbuilding. US steelworkers’ unions, US steel manufacturers, and Democratic lawmakers support this effort, saying it will revitalize the domestic industry.

However, this idea has created a shockwave in the local maritime industry, as it threatens the survival of the same shipping companies and customers that would increase the demand for orders from the US shipyards Trump wants to rebuild.

“The effort to strengthen American shipbuilding would not serve the national interest if it inadvertently destroyed American-owned carriers,” said Edward Gonzalez, CEO of Seaboard Marine, the largest US international ocean cargo carrier, based in Florida, on Monday.

Like many US operators, Seaboard relies on Chinese-made ships. According to maritime data provider Alphaliner, its fleet of 24 ships includes 16 Chinese-built vessels.

US ship operators said that fees on China-linked ships would push more US cargo to foreign-capitalized ocean transport companies, which have the resources to better handle the change.

According to the USTR, China’s share of the shipbuilding market rose from under 5% in 1999 to over 50% in 2023.

Speakers said that US shipyards produce fewer than 10 ships a year, while China produces 1,000.

Meanwhile, industry executives noted that shipbuilders in Japan and Korea would struggle to meet demand in the years it would take for US shipyards to build capacity.

Kathy Metcalf, CEO of the Chamber of Shipping of America, said that replacing existing Chinese-built ships is not like flipping a light switch. “Punishing China and the US maritime transport system is not an acceptable outcome,” she said.

US ship operators support key American industries such as manufacturing, mining, and agriculture by transporting goods on inland waterways, along the Great Lakes, and up and down the country’s coasts.

Agricultural exporters are struggling to book ships after May due to uncertainty in the USTR plan, while coal industry representatives also state that the fees make it difficult to offer their goods to the global market.

“I urge you to ensure that your efforts to increase domestic shipbuilding do not come at the expense of farmers’ access to the market,” said Mike Koehne, a board member of the American Soybean Association, who grows soybeans and corn in Indiana.

Nate Herman, senior vice president of policy for the American Apparel & Footwear Association, which is dependent on imports, said port fees would lead to job losses for American workers, higher costs for American exports and imports, and scarcity and rising prices for American consumers.

He cited a new study by various trade groups showing that high costs from port fees would cause US exports to fall by almost 12% and GDP to fall by 0.25%.

“Hardworking American families cannot afford more price increases and product shortages, and American manufacturers and farmers cannot afford to lose more export markets,” Herman said.

Representative Rosa DeLauro and 62 other Democrats in Congress supported the proposed fees and other “swift and decisive” actions in a letter sent to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Monday, saying that China’s dominance in the sector poses “unacceptable costs and risks” in terms of job losses and critical manufacturing capacity.

They requested the USTR to provide a facility that would allow firms to avoid fees by routing their cargo through Mexico or Canada.

The USTR, which will hear more comments at a hearing on Wednesday before finalizing the proposal under the Unfair Trade Practices Act, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In the current proposal, to completely avoid fees, ship operators must be based outside of China, have less than 25% of the ships in their fleet built in China, and not plan to order or take delivery from Chinese shipyards in the next two years.

A draft executive order seen by Reuters earlier this month would further narrow this limit by imposing port fees on all fleets with Chinese-built ships.

Shipowners could try to minimize the blow by using larger ships and limiting calls to major US ports, but this could put those ports in a difficult situation and lead to supply chain-related stress.

According to ship and port operators, ship operators could also shift cargo bound for the US to ports in Canada and Mexico and rely on trucks and trains to complete the journey, but this measure could also clog border crossings and cause more infrastructure wear and tear.

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US expresses optimism after Riyadh talks with Russia

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According to a CBS News report citing informed sources, the technical team from the US that participated in talks with a Russian delegation in Riyadh submitted an “optimistic” assessment to the administration of President Donald Trump.

Reuters reported that discussions between Russia and the US included steps to support Trump’s efforts to end the conflict, including a potential ceasefire in the Black Sea. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the Black Sea initiative was on the agenda in Riyadh.

Peskov stated that maritime security was a primary focus. Bloomberg added that technical details regarding a 30-day halt in attacks on energy facilities were also discussed.

On March 24, Trump addressed the topics discussed in Riyadh, saying, “Right now, we’re talking about territories. We’re talking about border lines, power, and ownership of power plants.”

The US president also expressed general satisfaction with the progress of the talks and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin for his participation.

A White House source told Reuters that progress had been made in the Riyadh meetings and that a “positive announcement” was expected soon. Peskov added that Putin would be briefed immediately on the outcomes of the Russian and American delegations’ discussions.

Additionally, RIA Novosti reported, citing a source, that the Russian delegation was in good spirits following the talks with US representatives in Saudi Arabia.

The meeting between the two delegations lasted over 12 hours on March 24 at The Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh, with three breaks. The discussions were closed to the press.

The Russian side was represented by Sergey Beseda, advisor to the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), and Grigory Karasin, head of the International Affairs Committee of the Russian Federation Council. Russian Deputy President Yury Ushakov noted that these individuals were experienced diplomats well-versed in international affairs.

According to foreign media reports, the US delegation included Andrew Peek, senior director for Europe at the National Security Council, and Michael Anton, director of policy planning at the State Department, among others.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova emphasized that while major breakthroughs should not be expected from the Riyadh talks, it was important to recognize that work had been done across multiple areas.

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