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DIPLOMACY

Navigating challenges: The G20’s pursuit under Indian presidency

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India is on the brink of hosting the prestigious annual G20 Leaders’ Summit this weekend. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, this event represents a golden opportunity to amplify its global influence. In this backdrop, Modi is skillfully harnessing the economic forum as a conduit for advancing both foreign policy imperatives and domestic concerns. The primary challenge confronting New Delhi lies in Ukraine and its quest to guide the divided consortium towards reconciliation amidst burgeoning geopolitical tensions.

Under Modi’s stewardship, India is ardently striving to demonstrate its capacity to shine on the grand global stage. A year at the helm of the G20 chairmanship has undeniably bolstered this aspiration. Just this week, Indian Information Minister Anurag Thakur proudly proclaimed that the nation had played host to more than 200 meetings across over 60 cities since assuming leadership from Indonesia last year.

India, a nation whose population has reportedly eclipsed that of China, is poised to act as a bridge, bridging the affluent economies with the burgeoning global south. Viewing the G20 as an optimal platform for this role, New Delhi has, this year, catapulted some of the most pressing concerns of the global south – food insecurity, climate change, and debt – to the pinnacle of the summit’s agenda. In a show of dedication, New Delhi hosted the Global South’s Voice Summit back in January, unifying perspectives from diverse governments and advocating for the inclusion of the African Union in the G20.

Simultaneously, New Delhi, recognizing the G20 presidency as a means to divert attention from its own domestic issues, made efforts to bring a sense of normalcy to the region. In May, it hosted a G20 tourism summit in the disputed Kashmir region. Regrettably, these endeavors did little to overshadow the ethnic violence that has plagued India’s northeastern state of Manipur.

The true measure of New Delhi’s G20 presidency, slated to conclude in December, hinges on the outcome of this impending summit and whether it culminates in a collective statement from its member states.

Convincing all G20 members to affix their signatures to a joint statement is bound to be a Herculean task for India. The nation is intricately engaged in managing relations with formidable counterparts like the United States and Russia, pursuing a delicate policy of equilibrium. France, for one, has declared its unwillingness to endorse any document at the summit that fails to condemn Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia has asserted its refusal to ratify any such document. The absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the summit further underscores the precarious nature of achieving consensus. Historically, the G20 meetings held under India’s leadership have failed to yield unanimous agreements.

Another looming uncertainty is whether the simmering rivalry between the United States and China will cast a shadow over the summit. Speaking about the implications of the tension between India and China on the summit, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan remarked, “It hinges on China. If China chooses, it possesses the option to play the role of a disruptor.”

Furthermore, the territorial discord between India and China remains unresolved. India had recently lodged a protest against China on August 29 for depicting the disputed border region of Arunachal Pradesh state as part of its territory. The Chinese government, in response, dismissed this action as a ‘routine exercise’ and urged India to exercise restraint in its interpretation.

India’s paramount objective for the summit is to forge a joint communiqué that harmonizes around less contentious topics. These include championing the inclusion of the African Union, pledging to fortify global food security, and advocating for the dissemination of clean energy technologies. India may strategically employ the qualifier ‘most members’ to highlight areas of disagreement, akin to last year’s communiqué in Bali, Indonesia.

Any failure to attain these objectives would undoubtedly be a source of consternation for Modi, who has invested considerable political capital in India’s G20 presidency.

DIPLOMACY

Ukraine, US, Israel in talks to send up to eight Patriot systems to Ukraine

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The US, Israel and Ukraine are in talks to supply Kiev with up to eight Patriot air defence systems to significantly improve its ability to counter Russian air strikes.

According to the Financial Times (FT), the deal, which has yet to be finalised, would see the Patriot systems shipped from Israel to the US before being delivered to Ukraine.

The outlines of the deal, which would mark a shift in Israel’s relationship with Moscow, have been discussed between ministers and senior officials from the three countries, according to five people familiar with the negotiations.

Israel announced in April that it would retire eight Patriot batteries with more than 30 years of service and replace them with more advanced systems.

However, the batteries used in the Gaza war have not yet been decommissioned amid fears that tensions with Hezbollah in the north could escalate into a full-scale war.

If such a transfer were to take place, it would represent a significant change in Ukraine’s defence capabilities. The country currently has at least four Patriot systems supplied by both the United States and Germany.

Ukraine has frequently asked its Western allies to supply it with air defence systems, particularly US-made Patriots.

Last week, the US announced that it was halting deliveries of Patriot interceptors to other countries in order to prioritise deliveries to Ukraine.

Israel has been wary of taking sides in Ukraine because of Moscow’s influence in Syria.

But according to the FT, US officials have tried to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu’s government that Russia’s increasingly close ties with Iran, particularly in the area of military cooperation, are a more pressing concern.

However, the sources said that while the transfer of all eight systems was being discussed, not all of them might be sent to Ukraine. Three people familiar with the discussions said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba had held talks on the issue with his US counterpart, Antony Blinken, in recent weeks.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan has also met at least twice with the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, the three sources said.

Kuleba did not confirm the talks, but told the FT: “Ukraine continues to work with various countries around the world to acquire additional Patriot systems. We once again call on all countries that have such systems to provide them to Ukraine,” he added.

In addition to the US-Ukraine talks, a person familiar with the diplomatic situation said there were also direct talks between Tel Aviv and Kiev on the transfer of Patriots.

Israel’s M901 PAC-2 batteries are older than most of the Patriot systems currently in Ukraine. But military analysts say the older model is still fully compatible with the newer ones.

According to a person familiar with the size of Israel’s arsenal, Tel Aviv has plenty of interceptors for use with these batteries, which Kiev also needs.

Analysts also said that Israel’s older interceptors have a longer range and a larger warhead than the new PAC-3 model.

Former officials and analysts said the Israeli systems would most likely be sold back to the United States, which could send them to Ukraine.

But they added that the real question was whether Tel Aviv was prepared to alienate its one-time ally Russia, despite Moscow’s increasingly close relationship with Tehran.

Israel has previously rejected Ukrainian requests for air defence systems. It also has an agreement with Russia that gives Israeli jets access to Syrian airspace.

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Polish president meets Xi Jinping in China

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Polish President Andrzej Duda met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Saturday as part of a state visit. The two leaders attended a signing ceremony in Beijing on Monday, CGTN reported.

“Bilateral exchanges and cooperation have expanded and deepened in all fields, benefiting the people of both countries. China will work with Poland to uphold the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, fulfil the commitments made at the time of the establishment of diplomatic relations, and take the relationship to greater heights,” Xi said.

The Polish leader said he had raised Russia’s war in Ukraine and the crisis on Poland’s border with Belarus during the talks, which also focused on developing economic ties.

Duda later said: “Thanks to the fact that President [Xi] called me his friend, which is a great honour for me, I am very happy to be able to contribute to the development of [Polish-Chinese] relations together with the president.”

Noting that his second and final term in office will end next year, Duda said he “hopes that these relations will be built in the future…[and] will always be based on common ideals…[and] mutual respect”.

Experts believe that this visit, which will last until Wednesday, will help strengthen China-Poland relations and increase economic cooperation between the two countries.

Duda and his wife Agata Kornhauser-Duda arrived in Beijing on Saturday at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Duda and his wife were met at the airport by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Deng Li and other officials, China Central Television reported.

Duda is expected to ask for visa exemptions for Poles travelling to China and seek ways to increase Polish exports to China to balance trade relations.

Polish state statistics reported that 13.9 per cent of the country’s imports came from China last year, while Polish exports to China were only a fraction of that amount.

A number of trade agreements are expected to be signed during the visit.

On Wednesday, Duda will fly to the financial centre of Shanghai to attend the Polish-Chinese Business Forum.

During his visit, Xi will hold talks with Duda to map out the future development of China-Poland relations, have in-depth exchanges on issues of common concern and jointly attend the signing ceremony of cooperation documents, Lin Jian, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, said at a routine press briefing last Thursday.

China is willing to work with Poland to take this visit as an opportunity to deepen political mutual trust, expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields, jointly pioneer high-quality cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative and China’s cooperation with Central and Eastern European countries, and continuously enrich the connotation of the China-Poland comprehensive strategic partnership, Lin said.

Cui Hongjian, a professor with the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University, told the Global Times on Sunday that China’s relations with Central and Eastern Europe have remained stable this year, and Poland sees this visit as a way to boost cooperation in both political and economic fields.

Cui said strengthening cooperation with China would not only benefit Poland’s economy, but also help Warsaw increase its influence within the EU. Although Poland and the United States have been in close contact in recent years, Duda’s visit shows that the Eastern European country is seeking balanced diplomacy to build close ties with China as well, Cui said.

Chinese experts also said that while Beijing and Brussels have a complex relationship and the EU has threatened to launch a potential trade war against China, Poland could play a positive role in negotiating bilateral relations between China and the bloc.

Janusz Piechocinski, Poland’s former deputy prime minister, said in an interview with the Global Times: “China will remain a powerful engine of the global economy. Trade wars with China could reduce demand and limit opportunities for trade expansion. We need more cooperation and less confrontation, a more practical dialogue aimed at solving problems rather than exacerbating them through protectionist measures.

Experts expect the Russia-Ukraine crisis to be on the agenda during Duda’s visit, as Poland has thrown its full weight behind Ukraine. Although China’s position on the Ukraine crisis differs from Poland’s, Beijing has been in close contact with Warsaw since the beginning of the crisis. In March this year, Li Hui, the Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, embarked on a second round of shuttle diplomacy to find a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis, visiting Poland in the process.

This is Duda’s third visit to China as President of Poland. The first was in November 2015, after which he became the only elected EU leader to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022. Xi also visited Poland in 2016.

“I try to maintain friendly relations with China, Poland has always had good relations with China and I want this to continue,” Duda said in an interview with private Radio Zet on Friday.

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American troops begin withdrawal from Niger

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Following the decision by Niger’s military government to expel US forces from the country, the withdrawal of US troops serving in the country and the process of moving their equipment has officially begun.

According to the AA report, which cites local sources, US troops are being withdrawn from the country following the termination of the military agreement that allowed military and civilian personnel from the US Department of Defense to serve in Niger. It was learnt that 269 soldiers and tonnes of equipment had been sent to the US in the first phase.

Senior US officials had travelled to Niger in March to ensure that the US would maintain its base in the country despite the suspension of military and development aid to Niger’s coup government. But after three days of waiting, the US delegation left without meeting the country’s military commander, General Abdurrahmane Tchiani, and on 17 March Niger announced the end of the military partnership Washington had come to secure and demanded that US troops leave the country immediately.

It was then announced that the US would leave the country completely by mid-September.

There are around 1000 US troops in Niger. Near the city of Agadez, at the southern end of the Sahara, there is a drone base called ‘Niger Air Base 201’.

Niger 201 is the second largest base in Africa after the permanent base in Djibouti, where the US also conducts drone operations.

Built and funded by the US and owned by the Nigerian army, the base has been operational since 2019 and is equipped with high-tech satellite communications systems.

Niger 201, which is leased from the Niger state for 10 years, is considered the largest and most expensive UAV base in the US.

The US, which spent $110 million on its construction and $30 million on its annual maintenance, uses the base as its main intelligence and surveillance centre in the Sahel.

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