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Poland’s EU Presidency Begins: ‘Security and Defence’

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Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels

Poland assumed the presidency of the Council of the European Union for the second time officially on January 3, 2025, with a very political agenda. Over the course of its six-month term, Warsaw plans to host more than 300 official meetings across 24 cities, concluding on June 30. With an ambitious program centered on security, the presidency seeks to address escalating geopolitical challenges while shaping the EU’s policy direction. 

The Polish presidency has prioritized strengthening European security in multiple dimensions, including external, internal, informational, economic, energy, food, and health sectors. This leadership tenure is expected to see significant efforts to bolster the EU’s resilience against current global tensions. Assistant Professor at the University of Wroclaw and Senior Analyst in the institute of Central Europe Jakub Bornio talked to Harici about Poland’s EU Presidency and what it means for regional and global politics. 

A Relief After Hungary’s Controversial Term

Poland’s Council Presidency arrives at a pivotal moment for the EU, following Hungary’s controversial tenure, characterized by the Eurosceptic approach of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his controversial visits. EU leaders are now expressing relief as they transition to working with Poland under Donald Tusk, a committed pro-NATO and pro-EU leader. 

The Polish Presidency’s program outlines its priorities, stating: “In view of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and other security threats, the work of the Foreign Affairs Council in the first half of 2025 will focus on maximizing support for Ukraine at political, military, and economic levels, maintaining current policies towards Russia and Belarus, and strengthening the security and resilience of the EU and its partners.”

It further emphasizes a commitment to transatlantic cooperation: “The Presidency will support the deepening of transatlantic relations. In particular, we are committed to EU-US coordination in the face of Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine and dialogue on global issues, including the Eastern Neighbourhood, China and the Indo-Pacific region, energy policy, new technologies, and the Connectivity Agenda.”

With these priorities, Poland’s leadership aims to reaffirm the EU’s unified stance on critical geopolitical challenges. However, questions remain about how Poland’s positions on Ukraine and NATO will be affected after the inauguration of elected President Donald Trump.

Poland Excludes Hungary’s Ambassador Amid Diplomatic Tensions

Poland barred Hungary’s ambassador from the opening gala of its EU presidency, citing a diplomatic dispute over former Polish deputy justice minister Marcin Romanowski, who fled corruption charges in Poland and was granted political asylum by Hungary in December. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called the move “pathetic and childish,” escalating tensions between the nations.

Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski deemed Hungary’s decision to grant asylum a “hostile act” and informed Hungarian Ambassador István Íjgyártó he was not welcome at the January 3 gala, hosted by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and European Council President Antonio Costa.

“Europe Must Move Beyond Survival to a Political Offensive,” Said Tusk

Incumbent Prime Minister of Poland and former President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, emphasized on December 4, 2024, that the European Union must shift from a state of “survival” to a “political offensive.” Reflecting on the 13 years since Poland’s last presidency, Tusk underscored the importance of the current timing and addressed several non-routine priorities, including military, economic, energy, and health security, as well as the need to combat disinformation. 

“Breakthroughs are perhaps awaiting us regarding war and peace east of our border,” Tusk said, calling for a “profound correction” of European priorities.

“Poland’s Presidency Prioritizes Security and Sanctions”

Poland’s EU Council Presidency will emphasize security and defense, continuing its longstanding approach since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. “Poland’s priority will be to maintain and, to some extent, extend sanctions on Russia,” explains Jakub Bornio, Assistant Professor at the University of Wrocław and Senior Analyst at the Institute of Central Europe. Borneo said Poland will also focus on securing financial assistance for EU member states providing military support to Ukraine, leveraging the European Peace Facility.

However, Hungary’s veto on critical financial measures remains a challenge. “Without strong signals from the US, I’m not sure whether it will be quite easy for Poland to convince Hungary to ease its stance,” Bornio warns. Another key focus will be advocating for the exclusion of defense spending from EU budget deficit calculations, a necessity given Poland’s planned allocation of 4.7% of its GDP to defense by 2025.

Bornio also highlights broader security concerns: “Poland’s priorities include fighting illegal migration and the weaponization of migration, as well as addressing hybrid threats orchestrated by Belarus and Russia.” Additionally, Poland will push for NATO member states to allocate at least 3% of their GDP to military spending, requiring EU cooperation on financial rules.

“Both Poland and the U.S. depend on each other”

“I don’t see major changes coming, at least when it comes to security in the region. Both Poland and the U.S. depend on each other,” says Jakub Bornio, considering the re-election of Trump. While acknowledging Poland’s status as a junior partner in this alliance, he highlights that the country still possesses assets and capabilities that the U.S. values. As a result, U.S.-Polish relations are expected to remain strong in security matters.

However, Bornio foresees potential strains in personal relationships. “It is quite likely that these personal relations will be kind of harsh, and it may impact Poland’s ability to affect its relations with the U.S. It is not a secret that there are some animosities between the Polish prime minister’s camp and Trump’s camp,” he notes. This tension could also spill over into Poland’s ability to navigate U.S.-Germany relations, which Bornio predicts will be turbulent under Trump’s second administration.

Despite these challenges, Bornio emphasizes Poland’s commitment to maintaining strong ties with the U.S. “What we learned from our previous administration of Trump is that he is also going to favor bilateral ties rather than multilateral platforms,” he concludes.

“Polish Elections Will Not Change Security or EU Commitment”

“It will not change much when it comes to foreign and security policy,” Jakub Bornio says when discussing the upcoming Polish elections in 2025. Both the Civic Coalition and the Law and Justice Party have strong commitments to security, defense, and Poland’s continued EU membership.

“Both candidates believe that Poland should be a member of the EU and that security should be prioritized,” he adds, noting a consensus on these key issues.

However, Bornio points to potential challenges: “There are big hopes in the Law and Justice camp, currently in opposition, that their candidate will be supported somehow by Trump and his cabinet.” He also highlights the tension between the current Polish elites and Trump’s administration.

“Poland Won’t Prioritize Türkiye During This Term”

Türkiye is mentioned in two sections of the Polish Presidency’s program. Under the Foreign Affairs Council, the document highlights efforts to “keep the Western Balkans and Turkey in the orbit of close cooperation with the EU under the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), including by maintaining an ongoing political dialogue.” Additionally, under the General Affairs Council’s enlargement paragraph, the Polish Presidency commits to maintaining a “constructive dialogue with Turkey, taking into account its status as a candidate country and in line with European Council conclusions.”

Jakub Bornio discussed Poland’s approach to EU enlargement, noting that while Poland has long advocated for EU expansion, “I don’t see EU-Türkiye relations changing much in this half year.” Poland will focus on strengthening its ties with the Western Balkans, Moldova, and Ukraine. “Especially when it comes to Western Balkan states, association with the EU is quite possible and will be emphasized by the Polish presidency,” Bornio adds, while emphasizing that no significant changes are expected in the short term. He also predicts that the EU will play a crucial role in supporting Moldova and aims for a more balanced approach to Georgia.

Bornio also highlighted Poland’s cautious stance on Türkiye. He explained that Poland has supported Türkiye’s NATO presence in the Eastern Flank, where there is only a small unit deployed so far. However, he mentioned that hopes for stronger cooperation in security matters exemplified by the Bayraktar deals have not materialized and the weaponization of migration, a concern linked to Türkiye’s actions, has led to a cooler reception in Warsaw. “This was not very welcomed by Warsaw, so I don’t think Poland – regardless of its declarations, will prioritize Türkiye during this term.”

Trio Presidency System since Lisbon Treaty

The presidency of the Council of the EU rotates every six months among the member states. Each country that holds the presidency chairs meetings, helping to manage the legislative process. The presidency system also operates in “trios,” where three consecutive member states collaborate closely over an 18-month period to set long-term goals and prepare a common agenda. Although the Council Presidency does not possess any executive power, it is still important in the context of leadership and agenda-setting.

This system, introduced by the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, allows each country to focus on specific priorities within the broader context. The current trio includes Poland, Denmark, and Cyprus. Each presidency is tasked with driving forward EU legislation, ensuring smooth operations in the Council, and representing the Council in its relations with other EU institutions, including the European Commission and Parliament. 

EUROPE

Germany considers easing debt brake for military spending

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German lawmakers are set to vote on whether to relax the country’s strict borrowing rules to finance military spending.

The country faces increasing pressure to increase defense spending, and tensions are rising over Europe’s security and the future of US support under President Donald Trump.

Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative CDU, which won the elections in Germany last month and is trying to form a coalition with outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, has called for urgent action.

In a speech to parliament this week, Merz called on lawmakers to exempt some defense spending from the country’s strict “debt brake,” which limits new borrowing to just 0.35% of annual GDP.

“We must do something now to significantly increase our defense capabilities, and we must do it quickly and in great unity in foreign and security policy,” Merz told lawmakers.

The proposed plan includes a €500 billion fund, financed by borrowing, to invest in both defense and infrastructure over the next decade.

Economists estimate that if approved, the measure could pave the way for up to €1 trillion in new spending over the same period.

However, changes to the debt brake require a two-thirds majority in parliament, as stipulated in the constitution. Merz and Scholz’s parties have moved to pass the measure before the new parliament convenes on March 25.

Opposition parties, including the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), argue that the debate should be postponed until the new parliament convenes to better reflect the will of the voters.

The AfD, which finished second in the elections, is expected to have more seats in the new parliament than in the current one.

AfD co-chair Alice Weidel accused Merz of reversing his position on the debt brake. “No other candidate for chancellor has broken so many elections promises in such a short time as you, Mr. Merz. You will go down in history as the gravedigger of the debt brake,” Weidel said.

Merz’s party, the CDU, had previously opposed changing the borrowing limit, but has since signaled its willingness to negotiate, citing the need for stronger defense spending amid growing uncertainty in Europe.

Green Party co-leader Katharina Droge also criticized Merz for previously rejecting proposals to reform the debt brake for economic and climate-related investments.

Despite the reactions, Merz argued that Germany must act quickly to strengthen its army and fulfill its NATO commitments.

“Germany must become capable of defending itself and return to the international stage as a capable partner in Europe, in NATO, and in the world,” Merz said.

The debate will continue in parliament on Tuesday, March 18, and the outcome will likely shape Germany’s fiscal and defense policies in the years to come.

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European parliamentarian Weber calls for war economy in Europe

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Manfred Weber, a Bavarian Christian Democrat (CSU) politician and head of the European People’s Party (EPP), the largest group in the European Parliament (AP), made notable statements to Die Welt, advocating for a shift in Europe’s mindset towards a war economy.

Weber, seen as the architect of the EPP’s partial collaboration with groups to its right, argued that the new European Commission bears the stamp of the EPP’s political program. “Take a look at the new legislative proposals a hundred days after the European Commission took office; they all bear the stamp of the EPP. For example, a determined policy on deportations, support for agriculture, defense, and the reduction of bureaucracy. We are bringing Europe to life for its citizens,” he said.

Weber emphasized the importance of whether the Greens and Social Democrats, previously allies of the EPP, would remain in a “leftist bubble.” He expressed confidence that these parties, along with the Christian Democrats, would strengthen the “center,” thereby weakening radical parties.

Regarding the “firewall” policy against the “far right,” Weber stated, “The firewall means a joint fight against the enemies of democratic values, the enemies of Europe and the free world. But the firewall does not mean a right of veto for leftist programs.”

When asked, “What will you do if these [right-wing] parties support the Commission’s proposals while the Greens and Social Democrats oppose them?”—referring to his openness to cooperation with right-wing parties like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party, while closing doors to groups further to the right such as the European Patriots for Europe (PfE) and European Nations Alliance (ESN)—he responded:

“Do you remember? In the last legislative term, the left-wing group in parliament, together with [Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor] Orbán’s party Fidesz and other radical forces, voted against the controversial nature restoration law, and together with the AfD against trade agreements or a migration agreement. There were frequent joint votes.”

Weber emphasized that they would not seek support from or work with the “radical right and left” in the AP for projects aimed at a “Citizens’ Europe,” but would accept it if these forces came with “unspoken” agreements.

The German politician stated that he was not surprised by the new Trump administration’s rhetoric that Europe should now ensure its own security, arguing that Trump’s statement that 330 million Americans cannot defend 450 million Europeans forever is “understandable.”

“Our problem is that we are not prepared for this,” Weber said, noting that he has frequently advocated for a “European defense” in recent years and that many years have been wasted by doing nothing in Berlin and Paris.

Weber added, “Apparently, a second Trump is needed to wake up Europe. I am pleased that the European Commission is now submitting proposals for a rearmament drive worth 800 billion euros.”

The EPP leader, underlining that Europe must defend itself independently, noted that he was “tired” of always looking to Washington for the EU’s security.

Believing in efficiency and prioritizing European companies, Weber also stated that they need a joint missile and drone defense shield and an independent European satellite surveillance system.

The EPP leader noted the need for a center of excellence for the development of artificial intelligence-focused innovations and a joint European military command integrated into NATO structures. “In this case, a European defense chief of staff should also be able to command the renewed national armies and give clear instructions on procurement. By the way, this issue was already agreed upon with France by Adenauer in 1952, but unfortunately, it was never implemented,” he said.

In one of the most important parts of the interview, Weber said, “Considering the threats, we must now shift our thinking in Europe to a war economy.”

The German politician noted that this means accelerating approval procedures for armaments, more cooperation among European defense manufacturers, and that in the future, defense manufacturers will “work in weekend shifts” and “companies that previously produced industrial goods for civilian purposes will start producing weapons.”

“We have to be creative; time is of the essence,” Weber said.

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CDU politician Bareiß suggests Nord Stream 2 restart

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A politician from the CDU, expected to lead Germany’s next government, has for the first time spoken in favor of putting the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline back into operation.

CDU Member of Parliament Thomas Bareiß stated on LinkedIn that if “peace” is achieved between Russia and Ukraine, “sooner or later” the “embargoes” will also be lifted, and in that case, gas flow could resume.

Bareiß, who served as Parliamentary State Secretary in the Ministry of Economic Affairs until 2021, made this statement in response to reports in the US and British media that US businessmen are planning to take over the company operating Nord Stream 2.

Such a takeover is expected to further increase the US influence over the EU’s natural gas supply. US liquefied natural gas (LNG) already accounts for approximately half of the EU’s total LNG imports in 2023.

However, the import share of Russian LNG is also increasing again. A robust Nord Stream 2 pipeline could transport approximately 27.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, which corresponds to about one-third of Germany’s imports.

Initial reports regarding US activities related to Nord Stream 2 emerged last November. At that time, The Washington Post reported that US businessman Stephen Lynch applied to the US regulatory agency, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), on February 28, 2024, to take over the Swiss-registered and sanctioned company operating the pipeline.

It was thought that this would be in the interest of the US, as the natural gas pipeline would thus become US property, and therefore be under US political control.

Lynch is also believed to have very good connections in Moscow, as he was involved in the efforts to transfer the foreign companies of Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s now-defunct Yukos Group to Rosneft’s ownership in 2007.

He also succeeded in taking over the sanctioned Swiss branch of the Russian Sberbank in 2022.

Lynch now states that he has experience in the “Russification” of sanctioned companies and wants to use this to take over Nord Stream 2.

Although this plan was considered “hopeless” under former US President Joe Biden, this may change with President Donald Trump’s announcement that he wants to end the war in Ukraine.

The Financial Times also addressed the issue in early March. Meanwhile, the bankruptcy proceedings against the company operating Nord Stream 2, which were opened in Switzerland and were scheduled to end on January 9, 2025, have been postponed until May 9 of this year at the request of the company’s owner, Gazprom.

Gazprom stated that a change of government in the US and early elections in the German Federal Assembly could have “significant consequences” for the external situation of the natural gas pipeline.

In the meantime, there is at least one other party interested in Nord Stream 2; a US-led consortium is much further ahead in its preparations than Lynch and is apparently also engaged in concrete negotiations.

According to The Financial Times, some leading members of the Trump administration have been informed about the processes; these individuals see the processes as part of Washington’s efforts to re-establish some political relations with Moscow.

In addition, any agreement on Nord Stream 2 could be part of a comprehensive agreement to end the war in Ukraine.

Finally, The Financial Times points out that the takeover of the natural gas pipeline by a US-led consortium would give the US additional influence over Europe’s natural gas supply.

Of course, Nord Stream 2 can only be put back into operation with the express consent of the German government. So far, no such approval has been given.

A government spokesman, referring to the FT report, stated that Nord Stream 2 was “not certified” in 2021 due to the escalating dispute over the pipeline and therefore “can never be used.”

In addition, the European Commission rejected the idea of re-operating the undamaged parts of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. A Commission spokesman in Brussels said that the pipeline would not be in the EU’s interest because it would not “diversify” the EU’s energy supply and would “re-establish dependence on an unreliable partner, Russia.”

It is also unclear whether Germany is currently involved in the negotiations. The Washington Post referred to the Berlin Global Advisors agency, which also included the former German ambassador to Moscow, Rüdiger von Fritsch. The agency did not confirm this.

The former managing director of Nord Stream 2, Mathias Warnig, also explicitly denied The Financial Times’ statements that he was involved in discussions regarding the commissioning of the natural gas pipeline.

Meanwhile, CDU Member of Parliament Thomas Bareiß is the first politician from a future German government coalition to speak out publicly in favor of Nord Stream 2 becoming operational.

Bareiß said on LinkedIn, “When peace is restored and the weapons are laid down between Russia and Ukraine (and hopefully this will happen soon), relations will normalize. Sooner or later, the embargoes will fall, and of course, gas can flow again.”

The CDU Member of Parliament explained, referring to the plans of a US-led consortium and Stephen Lynch, that this would “perhaps be in a US-controlled pipeline this time.”

Bareiß added that since “Europe will continue to be dependent on gas imports in the future” and pipeline gas is “much cheaper and at the same time more environmentally/climate-friendly than LNG gas,” natural gas imported via Nord Stream 2 would “certainly quickly find buyers in Europe.”

Bareiß is currently one of the CDU’s coalition negotiators with the SPD in the working group on transport and infrastructure.

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