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Professor Hasan Unal: ‘We can get Northern Cyprus recognized, if we agree with Syria’

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Recent statements made by Turkish officials, mainly by the President Erdogan, about the possibility of an “upper-level dialogue” with the Syrian government, have brought up expectations for the normalization of relations between Ankara and Damascus.

Syria was on the top agenda, first at the trilateral summit in Tehran in Astana Format between Turkiye, Russia and Iran, then at the Sochi summit where Erdogan and Putin met two weeks later the Tehran Summit. And shortly after the Sochi summit, President Erdogan made statements regarding the improvement of relations with the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the restoration of diplomatic relations with the Syrian administration, stating “There is no such thing as resentment in the international politics. You have to be at peace at all times. You have to keep the opportunity to get in contact at any time”.

When the civil war in Syria began with an American-backed provocation in 2011, the AKP government supported the groups that defined as the “opposition”, and then declared they did not recognize the government in Damascus as the legitimate Syrian government. There were high hopes within the AKP politicians that the Bashar al-Assad would be overthrown quickly, however more than 11 years after the war began, Bashar al-Assad remained in power while regaining the control over most parts of Syria especially the areas that were under the control of ISIS. All these high hopes were crushed in the end…

Now the Syrian government demands Turkiye to withdraw from the areas it currently holds, stop supporting the groups under its control, and accelerate the resolution process in Idlib Governorate; Ankara on the other hand, demands the withdrawal and a full control over the PKK/YPG groups, which pose a threat to Turkiye within its own borders. The fastest way to resolve these mutual security demands is only through establishing upper-level relations and a full cooperation. Therefore, it has recently been on the agenda that the relations between Damascus and Ankara could be re-established.

‘Relations will quickly be normalized’

Assessing the recent developments for Harici, Professor at Maltepe University Department of Political Science and International Relations Hasan Unal, told that he was pleased to hear President Erdogan’s recent statements about improving the relations with the Syrian government to a higher level and making a new beginning in bilateral relations. Criticizing the attitude of the Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Unal said “There is something that Cavusoglu keeps insisting on: That is to reconcile between the opposition and the regime, and trying to find a political solution. This demand is quite against Turkiye’s own national interests and may undermine the dialog process”, adding “However, I believe that the relations will quickly be normalized, by the President Erdogan’s own will”.

‘Cavusoglu’s attitude is wrong’

Stating that Cavusoglu insistently used the term “regime” to address the Syrian government, Unal said “This term has become toxic over the last years, and such language could not be used if we really desire to normalize our relations. We would also be disturbed if they referred to us as the “Erdogan regime”. We are talking about a leader and a government elected by the Syrian people themselves. It is not right to use the term regime”.

Emphasizing that Turkiye’s Syrian policy should not be focused on reconciling the Syrian government with the opposition, Professor Hasan Unal stated that the Syrian government should demonstrate their goodwill, with a number of political projects and that Ankara could act in a way that could help the Syrian government in this process.

Referring to the term “political solution” that the Turkish Foreign Minister often uses in his speeches, Unal commented “If you use this term, you would be talking about another side within Syria that is at least as legitimate as the Syrian government itself, and that would not be true. After all, there is the legitimate Syrian government, and some groups that have rebelled against it”. Underlining that it is out of the question for the groups in Idlib to be defended by Turkiye, Unal stated that there are political projects in Syria’s for the other rebel groups such as a national amnesty etc.

The three main agendas Turkiye should put forward

Professor Hasan Unal has listed three main agendas that Turkiye should forward regarding Syria, as following:

  1. Returning of the temporary refugees: We should report all the names and other identities that sought refuge in our country, and Syria should report back from which regions these groups come from, and a possible schedule for their return back home. And the refugees who cannot be returned to their original homes, are to be directed to the Syrian government’s responsibility. They can be subjected to a temporary settlement and then sent to their original home addresses.

‘We should update the Adana Memorandum’

  1. Our second aim should be towards updating and re-implementing the Adana Memorandum. PKK was specifically included in the previous memorandum, and now the YPG and other PKK-affiliates should be added to the updated memorandum. Turkiye may also demand Russia to be a signatory to the memorandum, in order to establish a full trust. Terrorist organizations such as the PKK, YPG, etc. could be included in this agreement, and Russia can also add the terrorist organizations it deems as a threat, and a mutual trust will be built.

‘Russia would recognize the TRNC if we could reach an agreement with Damascus’

  1. We should demand Syria to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), during the gradual handover of the territories currently controlled by Turkiye, back to Syria. Turkiye can also reach an agreement with Russia on TRNC’s recognition. A peace in Syria would crown Russia’s geopolitical efforts. Turkiye is in a position that is able to demand this from Russia in return for Turkiye’s careful policies in Ukraine. Russian-Greek relations are rough more than ever before, while a two-state solution in Cyprus is completely in Russia’s own favor. In a one-state solution, the entirety of the island of Cyprus would become EU territory, Turkiye would shift more towards the Western camp, and the island of Cyprus would be a full member of NATO. Such a solution on the island definitely cannot serve Russia’s national interests, that is why if Turkiye goes to a solution in accordance with its own interests regarding Syria, Russia could also be asked for diplomatic recognition of the TRNC.

Middle East

Qatar to fund Syrian public sector salaries

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Qatar will provide a monthly grant of $29 million for three months to support the economic recovery of the new administration led by HTS in Syria.

Syrian Finance Minister Muhammed Barniyeh announced that Qatar would provide support for the payment of salaries for public sector employees. The minister stated that this aid is exempt from US sanctions.

In a statement to the state news agency SANA on Wednesday night, Syrian Finance Minister Muhammed Barniyeh said, “We thank the government of Qatar for its generous grant to cover a portion of current salary and wage payments.”

Barniyeh stated that the aid would be $29 million per month for three months and would cover salaries in sectors such as health, education, and social services, as well as non-military pensions.

Emphasizing that this mechanism is exempt from US sanctions, Barniyeh also thanked the US Department of the Treasury for its swift response on the matter.

Since overthrowing the Bashar al-Assad administration in December, the interim administration has increased its diplomatic contacts aimed at lifting US and EU sanctions.

Finance Minister Barniyeh said he hoped this financial support would be “the beginning of new steps.” Barniyeh stated that the aid would be managed through the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and covers approximately one-fifth of current public salaries, which is 20%.

Qatar is among the leading regional supporters of the new interim government in Syria, alongside Turkey. In January, diplomatic sources reported that Qatar was working on a plan to finance the new administration in Syria to increase public salaries.

In addition to this move, Qatar, along with Saudi Arabia, decided in recent weeks to assume a portion of Syria’s debts to the World Bank Group.

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Syria’s interim president confirms indirect talks with Israel

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France has become the first European country to host Syria’s interim President, Ahmed Shara. Appearing before cameras with Macron in Paris, Shara announced that indirect talks between Syria and Israel are ongoing.

France, Syria’s former colonial power, hosted Ahmed Shara, who assumed the role of interim President, for official talks in Paris, aligning with its goal of increasing influence in the country. Shara met with President Emmanuel Macron in France, arriving with special permission from the United Nations.

Topics discussed during the meeting included post-war reconstruction and economic cooperation, as well as Israeli attacks. A Syrian government official stated that the meeting focused on these areas.

A statement from the Elysee Palace said, “This meeting is part of France’s historical commitment to the Syrian people who desire peace and democracy.”

France aims to increase its effectiveness in Syria following Russia’s long-standing influence. French companies are also striving to be involved in significant projects during the reconstruction process. Last week, the French logistics giant CMA CGM signed an agreement covering the right to develop and operate the Port of Latakia for 30 years.

Responding to questions about Israel’s attacks on Syria during the joint press conference held after the meeting, Shara said that indirect talks between the two countries are continuing. “Indirect talks with Israel are ongoing. This is an initiative aimed at de-escalating the situation before it gets out of control,” he stated.

Describing Israel’s interventions as “random and irregular,” Shara used the following expressions:

“Israel violated the 1974 agreement. From the moment we arrived in Damascus, we conveyed to all parties that Syria is committed to the 1974 agreement and that the UN-affiliated UNDOF forces should return to the blue line in the Golan. We are trying to exert pressure by communicating with all countries that have relations with Israel, so that Israel does not interfere in Syria’s internal affairs, violate its airspace, and bomb certain facilities. In this way, events can be prevented from getting out of control.”

Reuters had reported that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was mediating secret security and intelligence-focused contacts between Israel and Syria.

Speaking about EU sanctions on Syria, Shara said that keeping these sanctions in place after the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad administration was “unjust.” “These sanctions were imposed because of the crimes committed by the previous regime. However, there is no longer any justification for continuing these sanctions,” Shara said, emphasizing that the security of Syrians is their highest priority.

Responding to a question about foreign fighters in Syria, Shara said that these individuals would be subject to Syrian laws and that they had pledged not to pose a threat to neighboring countries or their home countries.

He also noted that some foreign fighters have married Syrian women and had children, stating, “These individuals can obtain citizenship if they meet the legal requirements defined in the Syrian Constitution. This matter should be resolved in a respectful and dignified manner, befitting those who support the Syrian people.”

French President Macron, for his part, stated that if Syria maintains its current political trajectory, they will work towards the gradual lifting of European Union sanctions.

“I told the President that if he continues on this path, we will also gradually lift European sanctions and will try to convince our American partners in this regard,” he said.

“The stability and unity of Syria are of great importance for the stability of the Middle East and for the security of the French and Europeans,” Macron said, emphasizing the necessity of cooperation with Syria in the fight against ISIS.

Macron also advocated for a joint fight against Hezbollah, stating, “A significant part of our cooperation is to intensify the fight against Hezbollah, counter the influence of Iran and its proxy elements in the region, and contribute to the stability of Syria and Lebanon.”

Macron also criticized Israel’s attacks on Syria, saying, “I do not think you can ensure your own security by violating the territorial integrity of your neighbors. Bombings and violations are bad practices. I will not apply a double standard to anyone on this matter,” he added, stating that a closer dialogue with Israel should be established.

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France seeks larger role in Syria as Shara visits Paris

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Syria’s transitional President Ahmed Shara is scheduled to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris today.

According to a report from Reuters, Shara received special travel permission from the United Nations despite being on a sanctions list due to his leadership of HTS.

French officials indicated that discussions would cover ensuring Syria’s sovereignty and security, the status of minorities following recent attacks on Alawites and Druze, efforts to combat ISIS, and coordinating economic support, including humanitarian aid and the potential easing of sanctions.

An official from the Elysee Palace commented, “Given the significant challenges Syria faces, it is clear that support is anticipated from France and other international partners.” The official also stressed that Paris is not overlooking Shara’s past jihadist affiliations and that its demands regarding the transition process remain unchanged.

France, which severed diplomatic ties with the Assad regime in 2012, welcomed its collapse and began fostering relations with the transitional government. President Macron recently held a trilateral video conference with Shara and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

Last month, Paris took a preliminary step towards reopening its embassy in Damascus by appointing a chargé d’affaires with a small diplomatic team.

Separately, a Reuters report noted that as the US began its withdrawal from the region and the new Syrian leadership sought to consolidate control under Damascus, France acted as a mediator between Shara and the SDF.

An official from the French presidency confirmed that consultations with Washington are ongoing concerning the US withdrawal process and France’s potential to assume a more prominent role in the region.

The World Bank estimates the cost of Syria’s reconstruction will exceed $250 billion. The Shara administration urgently requires sanctions relief to revitalize the economy, severely damaged by 14 years of conflict. The US, EU, and UK had imposed stringent economic sanctions on the Assad regime.

Syria hopes the EU will not renew these sanctions. Renewal requires the unanimous agreement of all 27 member states. However, options such as a limited extension or the removal of certain key entities, like the Central Bank of Syria, from the list are also being considered.

The Elysee official stated, “One of the primary obstacles is the presence of US sanctions, which hinder the transitional government’s ability to engage in reconstruction and attract foreign investment.”

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