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Robert Fico shooting: What do we know?

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot dead yesterday as he greeted citizens outside the House of Culture in Handlová, in the west of the country.

Denník N reporter Daniel Vražda, who was in the area, said he did not see the incident but was nearby and heard several shots. Vražda then saw the prime minister being lifted from the ground by security guards, put into a car and driven away.

According to witnesses at the scene, Fico walked towards the people who were there to greet him and several shots were fired. Available information suggests that a total of four to five shots were fired, after which Fico fell to the ground.

The Prime Minister remains in a critical condition

The alleged shooter was immediately arrested at the scene.

“The perpetrator fired five shots and the prime minister is still in a critical condition,” said Interior Minister Matúš Šutaj Eštok. The first information we have shows that the attacker had a clear political motivation and that the decision (to attack the prime minister) was taken shortly after the presidential elections,” Matúš Šutaj Eštok said.

The minister added that “the protection of constitutional representatives and some media organisations, as well as political representatives of both the coalition and the opposition, will be increased in the coming days”.Fico underwent a major operation that lasted about 3.5 hours.Defence Minister Robert Kaliňák said the prime minister’s condition was “very complicated”.

“We believe he will be strong enough to overcome this trauma,” Kaliňák said, according to Dennik N.

For his part, Deputy Prime Minister Tomas Taraba told the BBC on Thursday morning that “I think he will survive in the end”, adding that the prime minister’s condition was “not life-threatening at the moment”.

Conflicting claims about the shooterInitial reports on Slovak TV channel JOJ 24 identified the attacker as Juraj Cintula, 71, one of the founders of the DÚHA (Rainbow) literary club.

Cintula was president of the literary club until 2016 and author of three books of poetry.

Until 2016, Cintula worked as a security guard at a shopping centre in Levice, but resigned after being attacked on duty.The assailant, who was also a member of the Slovak Writers’ Union, allegedly wanted to found a political party called the Movement Against Violence eight years ago.

According to the portal of a Hungarian-language newspaper in Bratislava, Juraj Cintula was a sampatizan of the “pro-Russian paramilitary group” Slovenskí Branci (SB).Photos of Cintula regularly attending meetings of the organisation were published in 2016. The Hungarian website claims that the killer was listed as an “author and publisher” on the paramilitary group’s Facebook page and that some of his writings had been published.

But this is where things get complicated. According to the article, Cintula’s writings appear to criticise refugees and the Slovak state. It is a serious contradiction that the group organises uniformed commemorations at the grave of Jozef Tiso, the head of the fascist puppet state called the First Slovak Republic between 1938 and 1945, since the SB positions itself as an organisation against Nazism and fascism.

The Új Szó news portal, citing the Markíza television channel, reported that Cintula said shortly after his arrest that he had been “planning the assassination for a month because he disagreed with the government’s policies”.

In the video broadcast by Markíza, the suspect said: “I do not agree with the government’s policies. Why are the media being targeted? Why is RTVS [Slovak National Television] being attacked? Why was [Supreme Court President Ján] Mazák fired?”

Was Fico expecting an assassination attempt?A month ago, Fico posted a video on social media in which he talked about how the “progressive media” would shoot him and his government. The video was leaked by the Austrian newspaper Der Standard.

In the video, which was part of the political struggle at the time, the prime minister criticised the texts of the “progressive media”, which he said could lead to violence against government officials.”

“I expect that this frustration, which has been intensified by Denník N. Smečko or Aktualita, will escalate to the murder of one of the ” Fico said.

It is also significant that Interior Minister Eštok referred to the presidential elections.Last March and April, Slovakia’s pro-Western former foreign minister Ivan Korčok and Peter Pellegrini, leader of the ruling Hlas party, ran for the presidency.

Pellegrini won the race in the final round. Pellegrini had attracted attention by saying that if another NATO member was attacked by Russia, he would oppose sending Slovak forces to help that country under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. leading politicians of the government, and I am not exaggerating by a millimetre,” Fico said.

It is also significant that Interior Minister Eštok referred to the presidential elections.Last March and April, Slovakia’s pro-Western former foreign minister Ivan Korčok and Peter Pellegrini, leader of the ruling Hlas party, ran for the presidency.

Pellegrini won the race in the final round. Pellegrini had attracted attention by saying that if another NATO member was attacked by Russia, he would oppose sending Slovak forces to help that country under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Some commentators have pointed out that the political atmosphere in Slovakia has been particularly harsh in recent years. In 2018, the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina Kušnírová, sparked one of the largest protests in Slovakia’s modern history and forced then-Prime Minister Fico to resign.

Kuciak was investigating tax fraud by some businessmen with links to senior Slovak politicians.

Lubos Blaha, deputy speaker of the Slovak parliament and vice-president of Fico’s Smer party, blamed the “liberal media” and said: “On behalf of Smer, I strongly condemn what happened today in Handlová and at the same time express my great disgust at what you have done here in recent years. You, the liberal media and the political opposition.How much hatred you have spread against Robert Fico,” he said.

Fico’s stance on the war in Ukraine made the West unhappy

Pellegrini’s comments are closely aligned with those of Prime Minister Fico and his party.

Pellegrini claims that it is important for Slovakia to remain committed to the EU and NATO, but like Fico he refuses to send military aid to Ukraine.

Last January, Fico said neighbouring Ukraine was not a ‘sovereign nation’ but under the ‘absolute control’ of the United States.

The leader, who opposes military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, reiterated that he does not want Ukraine to join NATO.

Fico also accused Ukraine of being ‘one of the most corrupt countries in the world’, adding: ‘Only God knows how much of the aid sent to you has disappeared somewhere.

He argued that there was no military solution to the current conflict and that Ukraine would have to give up some of its territory.

He called for some kind of compromise that would be “very painful” for both sides: “And what do they expect? That the Russians will leave? That is unrealistic,” the Slovak leader said.

Fico cut military aid to Kiev immediately after his election victory, but at the EU summit he did not put obstacles in the way of Brussels’ aid to Kiev and a compromise was reached.

In the end, Fico announced that Slovakia would only provide humanitarian aid to Kiev and was also considering the possibility of supplying demining equipment.

The prime minister also announced that his country would help Ukraine train Ukrainian soldiers.

Together with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, Fico was seen as a ‘bulwark’ against pro-EU and pro-US policies in Central Europe.

Europe ‘shocked’ by assassination

Fico, who took office as Slovakia’s prime minister for a fourth term in September 2023, had been criticised by Western countries, particularly the European Commission, for his “pro-Russian stance”, as well as his regulation of the media and NGOs, and the laws his government was trying to pass.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the attack after the assassination, saying: “Such acts of violence have no place in our society and undermine democracy, our most precious common asset.”

Charles Michel, President of the Council of Europe, said in a statement in X that he was “shocked by the news” and added: “Nothing can justify violence or attacks of this kind. My thoughts are with the prime minister and his family,” he said.

The pro-Western prime minister of neighbouring Czech Republic, Petr Fiala, issued a statement on the X website shortly after the incident, describing the news as ‘shocking’.

Other European leaders, including Fico’s Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban, also expressed their “shock” at the shooting, condemned political violence and wished Fico a speedy recovery, while Romanian President Klaus Iohannis condemned the “extremist act” that “threatens our fundamental EU values”.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned the “cowardly” attack and stressed that violence has no place in European politics.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said she was “shocked” to learn of the “cowardly” attack and condemned all forms of violence as attacks on the fundamental principles of democracy and freedom.

Spanish Prime Minister and Social Democrat Pedro Sánchez also expressed outrage, saying that ‘nothing can justify violence’.

In Bulgaria, President Rumen Radev and Boyko Borisov, former prime minister and leader of the country’s largest party GERB, strongly condemned the violence, while Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the ‘pro-Russian’ Vazrajdane party, questioned who would want to kill Fico: “In this situation, every normal European should ask two questions: Who has an interest in the death of the Slovak politician? Who will be next?” he asked.

Kostadinov also recalled that Fico had repeatedly expressed his opposition to the provision of military aid to Ukraine, Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenyuk condemned the attack and called for efforts to ensure that “violence does not become the norm in any country, in any form, in any sphere”.

“I was outraged to learn of the attempt on the life of the Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic, Robert Fico. There can be no justification for this heinous crime,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing his sincere support and wishing Fico a speedy recovery.

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Operationsplan Deutschland: The debate over ‘planned economy’ in Germany

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As Ukraine fires U.S.-made long-range missiles at Russia for the first time and Russian leader Vladimir Putin updates his country’s nuclear doctrine, European countries are preparing for an all-out war on the continent.

According to a 1,000-page document drawn up by the German armed forces called ‘Operationsplan Deutschland’, Germany will host hundreds of thousands of troops from NATO countries and act as a logistics hub to send huge amounts of military equipment, food and medicine to the front line.

The German military is also instructing businesses and civilians on how to protect key infrastructure and mobilize for national defense in the event of Russia expanding drone flights, espionage and sabotage across Europe.

Businesses have been advised to draw up contingency plans detailing the responsibilities of employees in the event of an emergency, and told to stockpile diesel generators or install wind turbines to ensure energy independence.

More state intervention in the economy under discussion

In this context, state intervention in the economy and in companies is being discussed more intensively.

The German state has far-reaching rights in crisis situations. The energy crisis showed how quickly the state can intervene: At the time, the German government filled gas storage facilities by law, nationalized the gas importer Uniper and supplied floating LNG terminals.

According to Bertram Brossardt, CEO of the Bavarian Business Association, even a “transition to a planned economy” could be possible in an emergency.

This ‘planned economy’ could involve the state issuing food vouchers or even forcing people to work in certain sectors, such as water or transport companies.

Companies could also benefit if they have employees who volunteer for disaster relief, the Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW) or the fire brigade.

Lieutenant Colonel Jörn Plischke, who conducted the company training in Hamburg, said: “It costs you a few days a year to support this. But in a crisis, you have a direct link to the people who protect people and infrastructure,” he said.

Hamburg: The intersection of civil and military economy

Hamburg, where Lieutenant Colonel Plischke attended the event, is a central hub for the transport of goods and troops.

“If our infrastructure is used for military purposes, the risk of cyber-attacks and sabotage increases significantly,” the mayor of the Hanseatic city, Peter Tschentscher, told the Faz newspaper.

The Hamburg Senate has therefore created additional staff to strengthen civil defense. A third ‘home defense corps’ has been introduced, made up of volunteers who do not fight in the troops but work to ensure protection and security.

Exercises are currently being held in the Hanseatic city with the German armed forces and civilian forces.

According to the report, this exercise, called ‘Red Storm Alpha’, is training in the protection of port facilities.

The next exercise, ‘Red Storm Bravo’, will start soon and will be on a larger scale.

The lessons learnt from these exercises will then be incorporated into the ‘Operationsplan Deutschland’. This plan is intended to be a ‘living document’, constantly evolving and adapting to new information and threats.

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The era of the ‘right-wing majority’ in the European Parliament

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Under Ursula von der Leyen’s second presidency, the European Commission will abandon its previous ‘cordon sanitaire’ policy towards the ‘far right’.

Leyen’s new Commission will include two members from the ‘far right’. Raffaele Fitto of Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy – FdI), the party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Olivér Várhelyi, who is close to Fidesz, the party of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Fratelli d’Italia is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the EP, while Fidesz is part of the Patriots for Europe (PfE) group, which also includes the French National Rally (RN) and the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ).

The conservative European People’s Party (EPP), led by German CSU politician Manfred Weber, has repeatedly cooperated with the ECR in the past legislature and explicitly reserves the right to do so in the future.

The cordon sanitaire against the right is practically non-existent

More recently, it has voted with the PfE and sometimes even with the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), of which the German AfD is a member. The traditional border against the ‘extreme right’ (the so-called ‘security cordon’) is thus continuing to crumble.

The security cordon was systematically relaxed by the EPP in the last legislative period. As early as January 2022, the EPP made it possible for an MEP from the right-wing ECR to be elected as one of the vice-presidents of the EP.

A study by the Greens shows that the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen has relied on MEPs from the ECR and even the more right-wing ID (Identity and Democracy) group in around 340 votes to secure a majority.

According to the study, these demands often included a reduction in the CO2 price for the car industry or the approval of subsidies for fossil fuels.

With the votes of the EPP, ECR and ID, the EPP also managed to block a motion in April 2024 proposing measures to prevent parliamentary staff from being harassed by MEPs.

So, one small step after another, the security cordon was broken.

Breaking point: European right united against Maduro

In September, one of the first votes of the newly elected EP attracted more attention. The resolution under discussion would have recognised Edmundo González, the defeated candidate in the presidential elections in Venezuela on 28 July 2024, as the real winner of the elections.

The resolution in favour of González was tabled jointly by the EPP and the ECR, in which the party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is the largest group.

The resolution was finally adopted with the votes of Orbán’s Fidez, Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and PfE, which includes the FPÖ, and the ESN, which includes the AfD.

The ‘Venezuelan majority’ at work in the EP: EPP support for the AfD

The so-called ‘Venezuelan majority’ – the large voting majority of conservative and right-wing parties in the EP – has since come into play on several occasions.

This was the case in October, for example, when the European Parliament decided on the procedure for presenting and voting on future EU commissioners. Also in October, the EPP voted in favour of an AfD budget motion proposing the erection of extensive barriers at the EU’s external borders.

The EPP, ECR and PfE also voted to award this year’s European Parliament Sakharov Prize to González and right-wing Venezuelan opposition politician María Corina Machado.

Finally, last week the EPP joined with other MEPs on the right to amend a bill aimed at halting global deforestation.

Sparking outrage on the left, several rebel MEPs from the ECR, PfE, ESN and the liberal Renew group backed the EPP on key amendments.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was elected in July on the basis of an alliance between the EPP, Liberals, Socialists and Greens.

In its second term, the European Commission is abandoning its previous ‘cordon sanitaire’ policy against the ‘far right’.

Leyen’s new Commission will include two members from the ‘far right’. Raffaele Fitto of Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy – FdI), the party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Olivér Várhelyi, who is close to Fidesz, the party of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Fratelli d’Italia is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the EP, while Fidesz is part of the Patriots for Europe (PfE) group, which also includes the French National Rally (RN) and the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ).

The conservative European People’s Party (EPP), led by German CSU politician Manfred Weber, has repeatedly cooperated with the ECR in the past legislature and explicitly reserves the right to do so in the future.

New Commissioners from the right

Raffaele Fitto, a member of Giorgia Meloni’s FdI party, is known as one of Meloni’s closest friends and will be appointed by Leyen as one of the vice-presidents of the EU Commission ‘responsible for cohesion and reforms’.

Hungary, on the other hand, has appointed former Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi as a commissioner in Brussels, with future responsibility for health. Várhelyi is very close to Prime Minister Orbán’s Fidesz party.

There is strong protest against Fitto and Várhelyi in the Socialist and Green parliamentary groups, which support the Leyen Commission. It is rumoured that both groups will not support the appointment of the two politicians.

The invisible architect of the right-wing alliance: Manfred Weber of the CSU

The row over future commissioners has come to a head in recent days.

EPP President Manfred Weber (CSU), who is seen as the main architect of his group’s alliance with the ECR and the EPP, could theoretically get two right-wing commissioners approved with a “Venezuelan majority”.

However, if CDU or CSU politicians in the EP vote with the AfD on a key decision, this could be seen as an unwelcome signal shortly before the early German elections.

But as former Italian prime ministers Romano Prodi and Mario Monti said on Tuesday, pressure is growing for the EU to act ‘as one’ at a time when it faces ‘major challenges both in the East and in the West’.

We have a responsibility to make sure that something changes after this election… The majority will very often include the ECR,” German EPP MEP Peter Liese of the CSU also told reporters on Monday.

Liese said he had no “firewall” against the ECR and claimed that Fitto’s senior position had been negotiated as part of an agreement between the main political families in the European Council at the beginning of the summer.

Continued support for Ukraine in return for right-wing MEPs

On Wednesday (20 November), however, the leaders of the European Parliament’s political groups, meeting in Brussels, reached an agreement.

According to this, Fitto and Várhelyi will be allowed to take up the positions in the European Commission that Leyen has envisaged for them, and the Socialists will agree to this.

In return, the EPP promises to cooperate only with ‘pro-Ukrainian’ parties that support the EU and the rule of law.

This means that the old ‘cordon sanitaire’, i.e. the border against the ‘extreme right’, has been replaced primarily by foreign policy conditions.

According to the EPP’s interpretation, there are no longer any obstacles to cooperation with the ECR.

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Turmoil in the SPD: Pistorius vs. Scholz

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Pressure is mounting on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to relinquish leadership of his party, the Social Democrats (SPD), ahead of the upcoming snap elections. This move is seen as a potential lifeline for the party, currently polling in third place, to regain electoral momentum.

The SPD leadership has thus far supported Scholz’s bid for a second term in the federal elections, now rescheduled for 23 February 2025 following the collapse of the three-party coalition on 6 November. However, internal dissent is growing.

In two heated party meetings last week, SPD MPs deliberated over whether Defence Minister Boris Pistorius should replace Scholz as the party’s candidate. According to Der Spiegel and POLITICO, one meeting included the conservative wing of the SPD, while the other involved its left wing. Both groups reportedly had significant support for replacing Scholz with Pistorius.

Calls for Scholz to step aside reached a crescendo on Monday, with prominent SPD politicians from North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, leading the charge.

Pistorius’ voices rise within the party

Dirk Wiese and Wiebke Esdar stated: “The focus is on finding the best political line-up for this election. We hear a lot of praise for Boris Pistorius. It is clear that the final decision on the chancellor candidacy will rest with the party committees, as it should.”

Markus Töns, a long-time SPD member, echoed this sentiment in Stern: “The chancellor has done a good job in difficult circumstances, but the coalition’s end signals a need for a fresh start. Boris Pistorius would make this easier than Olaf Scholz.”

Former SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel was even more critical. Writing on X (formerly Twitter), Gabriel warned of “growing resistance” within the SPD to Scholz’s leadership. “The SPD leadership’s only response is appeasement and loyalty pledges. What we need is bold political leadership. Without it, the SPD risks falling below 15 percent,” he cautioned.

Scholz confident of ‘support from the leadership’

The SPD leadership had planned to finalize the chancellor candidacy decision at its party conference on 30 November. However, the timeline may accelerate to quell the escalating debate.

Speaking from the G20 Summit in Brazil, Scholz dismissed questions about his candidacy, expressing confidence in party support. “The SPD and I aim to win this election together,” he told Die Welt. Secretary-General Lars Klingbeil reinforced this stance, stating on ARD television: “We are committed to continuing with Olaf Scholz—there’s no wavering.”

Chancellor returns without stopping in Mexico

Despite these reassurances, Scholz abruptly canceled his planned trip to Mexico, returning to Berlin after the G20 Summit amid rumors of party infighting. While the SPD leadership held a conference call on Tuesday to discuss the campaign strategy, no decisions were reached.

Recent opinion polls paint a bleak picture for both Scholz and the SPD. The party is polling at 16 percent, far behind the CDU and the far-right AfD, marking a steep decline of 10 points since the 2021 elections.

Yet, Boris Pistorius remains Germany’s most popular politician, consistently outpacing CDU leader Friedrich Merz in approval ratings. This has fueled hopes within the SPD that Pistorius could revitalize their electoral prospects.

Pistorius’ rising profile is not without controversy. Known for his hawkish stance on military issues, he advocates for making the German military “fit for war” and has pushed for increased defense spending to meet NATO’s 2 percent of GDP target. Critics argue that these positions clash with the SPD’s traditional skepticism toward military intervention and ties with Moscow.

Nonetheless, many within the SPD believe Pistorius offers the best chance to avoid a crushing defeat in February’s elections. Pistorius has championed investments to rebuild the Bundeswehr after decades of neglect and launched initiatives to recruit for Germany’s depleted armed forces. His restructuring of the army earlier this year emphasized regional defense over external missions.

Internationally, Pistorius’ assertive approach has earned respect from Western allies, positioning him as a strong contender for the chancellorship despite his public denials. “We already have a candidate, and he is the sitting chancellor,” Pistorius recently told German state television.

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