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Robert Fico shooting: What do we know?

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot dead yesterday as he greeted citizens outside the House of Culture in Handlová, in the west of the country.

Denník N reporter Daniel Vražda, who was in the area, said he did not see the incident but was nearby and heard several shots. Vražda then saw the prime minister being lifted from the ground by security guards, put into a car and driven away.

According to witnesses at the scene, Fico walked towards the people who were there to greet him and several shots were fired. Available information suggests that a total of four to five shots were fired, after which Fico fell to the ground.

The Prime Minister remains in a critical condition

The alleged shooter was immediately arrested at the scene.

“The perpetrator fired five shots and the prime minister is still in a critical condition,” said Interior Minister Matúš Šutaj Eštok. The first information we have shows that the attacker had a clear political motivation and that the decision (to attack the prime minister) was taken shortly after the presidential elections,” Matúš Šutaj Eštok said.

The minister added that “the protection of constitutional representatives and some media organisations, as well as political representatives of both the coalition and the opposition, will be increased in the coming days”.Fico underwent a major operation that lasted about 3.5 hours.Defence Minister Robert Kaliňák said the prime minister’s condition was “very complicated”.

“We believe he will be strong enough to overcome this trauma,” Kaliňák said, according to Dennik N.

For his part, Deputy Prime Minister Tomas Taraba told the BBC on Thursday morning that “I think he will survive in the end”, adding that the prime minister’s condition was “not life-threatening at the moment”.

Conflicting claims about the shooterInitial reports on Slovak TV channel JOJ 24 identified the attacker as Juraj Cintula, 71, one of the founders of the DÚHA (Rainbow) literary club.

Cintula was president of the literary club until 2016 and author of three books of poetry.

Until 2016, Cintula worked as a security guard at a shopping centre in Levice, but resigned after being attacked on duty.The assailant, who was also a member of the Slovak Writers’ Union, allegedly wanted to found a political party called the Movement Against Violence eight years ago.

According to the portal of a Hungarian-language newspaper in Bratislava, Juraj Cintula was a sampatizan of the “pro-Russian paramilitary group” Slovenskí Branci (SB).Photos of Cintula regularly attending meetings of the organisation were published in 2016. The Hungarian website claims that the killer was listed as an “author and publisher” on the paramilitary group’s Facebook page and that some of his writings had been published.

But this is where things get complicated. According to the article, Cintula’s writings appear to criticise refugees and the Slovak state. It is a serious contradiction that the group organises uniformed commemorations at the grave of Jozef Tiso, the head of the fascist puppet state called the First Slovak Republic between 1938 and 1945, since the SB positions itself as an organisation against Nazism and fascism.

The Új Szó news portal, citing the Markíza television channel, reported that Cintula said shortly after his arrest that he had been “planning the assassination for a month because he disagreed with the government’s policies”.

In the video broadcast by Markíza, the suspect said: “I do not agree with the government’s policies. Why are the media being targeted? Why is RTVS [Slovak National Television] being attacked? Why was [Supreme Court President Ján] Mazák fired?”

Was Fico expecting an assassination attempt?A month ago, Fico posted a video on social media in which he talked about how the “progressive media” would shoot him and his government. The video was leaked by the Austrian newspaper Der Standard.

In the video, which was part of the political struggle at the time, the prime minister criticised the texts of the “progressive media”, which he said could lead to violence against government officials.”

“I expect that this frustration, which has been intensified by Denník N. Smečko or Aktualita, will escalate to the murder of one of the ” Fico said.

It is also significant that Interior Minister Eštok referred to the presidential elections.Last March and April, Slovakia’s pro-Western former foreign minister Ivan Korčok and Peter Pellegrini, leader of the ruling Hlas party, ran for the presidency.

Pellegrini won the race in the final round. Pellegrini had attracted attention by saying that if another NATO member was attacked by Russia, he would oppose sending Slovak forces to help that country under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. leading politicians of the government, and I am not exaggerating by a millimetre,” Fico said.

It is also significant that Interior Minister Eštok referred to the presidential elections.Last March and April, Slovakia’s pro-Western former foreign minister Ivan Korčok and Peter Pellegrini, leader of the ruling Hlas party, ran for the presidency.

Pellegrini won the race in the final round. Pellegrini had attracted attention by saying that if another NATO member was attacked by Russia, he would oppose sending Slovak forces to help that country under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Some commentators have pointed out that the political atmosphere in Slovakia has been particularly harsh in recent years. In 2018, the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina Kušnírová, sparked one of the largest protests in Slovakia’s modern history and forced then-Prime Minister Fico to resign.

Kuciak was investigating tax fraud by some businessmen with links to senior Slovak politicians.

Lubos Blaha, deputy speaker of the Slovak parliament and vice-president of Fico’s Smer party, blamed the “liberal media” and said: “On behalf of Smer, I strongly condemn what happened today in Handlová and at the same time express my great disgust at what you have done here in recent years. You, the liberal media and the political opposition.How much hatred you have spread against Robert Fico,” he said.

Fico’s stance on the war in Ukraine made the West unhappy

Pellegrini’s comments are closely aligned with those of Prime Minister Fico and his party.

Pellegrini claims that it is important for Slovakia to remain committed to the EU and NATO, but like Fico he refuses to send military aid to Ukraine.

Last January, Fico said neighbouring Ukraine was not a ‘sovereign nation’ but under the ‘absolute control’ of the United States.

The leader, who opposes military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, reiterated that he does not want Ukraine to join NATO.

Fico also accused Ukraine of being ‘one of the most corrupt countries in the world’, adding: ‘Only God knows how much of the aid sent to you has disappeared somewhere.

He argued that there was no military solution to the current conflict and that Ukraine would have to give up some of its territory.

He called for some kind of compromise that would be “very painful” for both sides: “And what do they expect? That the Russians will leave? That is unrealistic,” the Slovak leader said.

Fico cut military aid to Kiev immediately after his election victory, but at the EU summit he did not put obstacles in the way of Brussels’ aid to Kiev and a compromise was reached.

In the end, Fico announced that Slovakia would only provide humanitarian aid to Kiev and was also considering the possibility of supplying demining equipment.

The prime minister also announced that his country would help Ukraine train Ukrainian soldiers.

Together with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, Fico was seen as a ‘bulwark’ against pro-EU and pro-US policies in Central Europe.

Europe ‘shocked’ by assassination

Fico, who took office as Slovakia’s prime minister for a fourth term in September 2023, had been criticised by Western countries, particularly the European Commission, for his “pro-Russian stance”, as well as his regulation of the media and NGOs, and the laws his government was trying to pass.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the attack after the assassination, saying: “Such acts of violence have no place in our society and undermine democracy, our most precious common asset.”

Charles Michel, President of the Council of Europe, said in a statement in X that he was “shocked by the news” and added: “Nothing can justify violence or attacks of this kind. My thoughts are with the prime minister and his family,” he said.

The pro-Western prime minister of neighbouring Czech Republic, Petr Fiala, issued a statement on the X website shortly after the incident, describing the news as ‘shocking’.

Other European leaders, including Fico’s Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban, also expressed their “shock” at the shooting, condemned political violence and wished Fico a speedy recovery, while Romanian President Klaus Iohannis condemned the “extremist act” that “threatens our fundamental EU values”.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned the “cowardly” attack and stressed that violence has no place in European politics.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said she was “shocked” to learn of the “cowardly” attack and condemned all forms of violence as attacks on the fundamental principles of democracy and freedom.

Spanish Prime Minister and Social Democrat Pedro Sánchez also expressed outrage, saying that ‘nothing can justify violence’.

In Bulgaria, President Rumen Radev and Boyko Borisov, former prime minister and leader of the country’s largest party GERB, strongly condemned the violence, while Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the ‘pro-Russian’ Vazrajdane party, questioned who would want to kill Fico: “In this situation, every normal European should ask two questions: Who has an interest in the death of the Slovak politician? Who will be next?” he asked.

Kostadinov also recalled that Fico had repeatedly expressed his opposition to the provision of military aid to Ukraine, Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenyuk condemned the attack and called for efforts to ensure that “violence does not become the norm in any country, in any form, in any sphere”.

“I was outraged to learn of the attempt on the life of the Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic, Robert Fico. There can be no justification for this heinous crime,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing his sincere support and wishing Fico a speedy recovery.

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U.S. sets up new ‘air defence base’ in Poland

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The United States inaugurated a new air defense base in northern Poland on Wednesday, marking a significant move in NATO’s defense strategy. Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that the base strengthens Poland’s security as a NATO member, especially as the war in Ukraine continues.

Located in Redzikowo, a town near the Baltic coast, the base has been in development since the early 2000s. Amid concerns following Donald Trump’s election, some NATO members are uneasy about future commitments. However, Polish officials emphasize that the consistent support of the base project across U.S. administrations underscores the enduring military alliance between Poland and the United States.

“The United States is the guarantor of Poland’s security,” Duda asserted, underscoring that the presence of U.S. troops highlights Poland’s sovereignty and reinforces that it is “not in Russia’s sphere of influence,” despite its historical ties as a socialist state until 1989.

On the other side, Kremlin officials described the base as an attempt to “contain Russia” by positioning American military infrastructure closer to Russian borders.

The Redzikowo base is a vital component of NATO’s Aegis Ashore missile defense shield, designed to intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Other key elements of this NATO defense shield include a base in Romania, U.S. Navy destroyers stationed at Rota, Spain, and an early warning radar located in Kürecik.

Russia has long viewed the base as a threat, initially opposing the project in 2007. NATO maintains that the shield is “purely defensive” and asserts that it’s not targeted at Russia.

According to military sources cited by Reuters, the Redzikowo system currently targets missiles from the Middle East. Redirecting the radar to intercept missiles from Russia would require a policy shift and complex procedural adjustments.

Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz recently called for expanding the defense shield, stating that Warsaw would discuss further plans with NATO and the United States.

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German think tank DGAP: Germany and Europe must build military strength in the Asia-Pacific region

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Germany’s leading foreign policy journal, Internationale Politik, calls for significant rearmament and militarization efforts to strengthen European influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to Internationale Politik, published by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), European nations should rapidly expand their armed forces and take control not only of their own continent but also, “if necessary, the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb,” to “reduce reliance on U.S. troops in Europe.”

If successful, the journal argues, the United States would retain adequate military capacity “in the event of a war in the Indo-Pacific.” In such a scenario, European nations should also prepare for a potential conflict with China and enhance their defense industrial capacity to replenish depleted U.S. munitions if required.

The ‘Asianization’ of security architecture

Calls for a stronger German and European military presence in the Asia-Pacific are driven by the intensifying power struggle between the West and China and the increasing inclination of Asian nations to pursue independent military policies rather than aligning with declining Western dominance.

Felix Heiduk, director of the Asia Research Group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), describes this trend as the “Asianization” of regional security architecture.

Indonesia exemplifies this shift. Since 2007, Indonesia has conducted regular military exercises with the United States, the latest spanning August 26 to September 6, 2024. However, Jakarta has also expanded ties with Russia. During a recent meeting with President Vladimir Putin, Indonesia’s current president and former defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, expressed that he sees Russia as a “great friend” and intends to strengthen relations with Moscow.

Last week, Russia and Indonesia held their first joint military exercises, which Jakarta considers a demonstration of its independent foreign and military policy.

The ‘Indo-Pacific’ as a Japanese-American concept and Germany’s role

The concept of the Indo-Pacific frequently underpins arguments for expanding military activities into the Asia-Pacific. In Internationale Politik, Heiduk clarifies that this term is “neither geographically neutral nor value-neutral” but rather “purely political.”

Heiduk explains that the concept of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”, which the U.S. adopted from Japan, aims to encircle China and maintain U.S. hegemony in Asia. He further notes that Germany is also entangled in this geopolitical struggle.

Heiduk points to Germany’s Asia-Pacific military deployments in 2021 and 2024, along with maneuvers involving German air and ground forces in Australia and other countries in the region. These actions align with Berlin’s official Indo-Pacific Strategy—a conflict framework Germany has adopted in alignment with the U.S. in its great power struggle with China.

Europe’s Need to Rebuild Its Land Armies

Max Bergmann, an expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, illustrates the pressure for greater militarization in the Asia-Pacific in a recent article for Internationale Politik.

Bergmann describes European nations as lacking “hard power,” noting that European armies have been underfunded for two decades and that rebuilding ground forces should be the priority. He argues that while Britain and France possess advanced weapons systems, including anti-submarine capabilities, their forces are “too thinly deployed.”

While Russia remains the immediate military priority for Europe, Bergmann sees a long-term role for European security in the Indo-Pacific.

Reducing the U.S. military rresence in Europe

The CSIS expert suggests six strategic steps Europe can take to reduce U.S. military presence.

The first step, according to Bergmann, is for Europe to focus on securing the continent, the Mediterranean, and, if needed, the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. This would allow the U.S. to concentrate fully on the Indo-Pacific if war broke out in the region.

Bergmann notes that in such a conflict, the U.S. could dedicate its full military production capacity to support Indo-Pacific logistics, but only if Europe is militarily fortified.

Beyond the ‘third way’ for Europe

Bergmann proposes additional diplomatic and security roles for European states. He advocates strengthening relations with countries like Vietnam, which have limited ties with the U.S. However, he emphasizes that Europe should not pursue a “Gaullist third way” between the U.S. and China since European interests align closely with U.S. strategic interests.

Finally, Bergmann recommends that European states establish stronger military-political and arms-industrial partnerships within the Asia-Pacific and, ultimately, bolster their own military presence in the region. The most effective way to achieve this, he suggests, would be to organize a European naval mission under the EU flag to coordinate all European naval activities in the Asia-Pacific.

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Green light from CDU for debt brake reform

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Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), announced on Wednesday that the constitutional debt brake, which limits public deficits to 0.35% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), could be open to reform under certain conditions.

Merz, the frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor after the collapse of the country’s “traffic light” coalition, has previously argued that Germany should adhere to the constitutionally guaranteed debt brake, a measure introduced by his party under Angela Merkel in 2009.

The debate over debt brake reform within the CDU was reignited this year by Berlin’s conservative mayor Kai Wegner. Several powerful CDU leaders from regional governments have also supported the reform push, as these states face more constraints than the federal government and lack the flexibility for new borrowing.

Merz: Revision possible if borrowing is for investment

Pressure is mounting within the party, with CDU state premiers urging Merz to include debt brake reform plans in the campaign for the early elections on 23 February.

Speaking at an event on Wednesday, Merz stated: “Of course, reform is possible. The question is: why? To what end? What would be the result of such a reform?”

Merz emphasized that he would not support reform aimed at increasing consumption or social policy spending. However, he suggested that if additional borrowing were used to increase investment, “then the answer could be different.”

According to the Greens, the only way out of the crisis is a revision of the debt brake

Merz noted that the debt brake was a “technical issue” and stated that he did not wish to engage in the discussion at that moment. Later, a source close to the CDU leader told Reuters that Merz had no immediate plans to reform the debt brake.

However, Bruno Hönel, a member of the Bundestag’s budget committee from the Greens, argued that if Merz assumed power, the debt brake would be reformed immediately, pointing out that the budget could not be financed without borrowing during such a crisis.

Hönel stated, “If you want to work with the budget in a forward-looking way, there is no other way than to reform the debt brake.” He also noted that 80 billion euros would be needed to meet NATO’s 2% defense spending target by 2028, nearly 30 billion euros more than the draft budget for 2025, which currently envisions defense spending of 53 billion euros.

Traffic light coalition collapses over debt brake debate

The debt brake was a key factor in the collapse of the coalition, leading to calls for early elections.

Christian Lindner, leader of the fiscally conservative Free Democrats (FDP), who was dismissed as finance minister last week by Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz, claimed that Scholz had pressured him to suspend the debt brake.

Suspending the debt brake in an emergency, citing special circumstances, is possible with a government majority. Germany reinstated the debt brake in 2024 after a four-year suspension to allow for extra spending on the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis.

CDU’s sister party CSU opposes reform

However, reforming the debt brake requires a two-thirds majority in both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat.

The CDU premiers from the eastern states support the debt brake reform, while Markus Söder, the leader of Bavaria’s CSU, opposes it. Söder emphasized that “absurd extra spending” must be cut first.

Before discussing the debt brake, Söder argued that the fiscal equality of federal states must be addressed, referring to Germany’s income redistribution system.

The wealthy state of Bavaria recently had to transfer over €9 billion to other states. “This cannot go on,” Söder declared.

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