Asia
The fragile state

Pakistan has been suffering from economic, political, and security challenges. The mounting insecurity and recent terrorist attacks that killed a number of security forces, have painted a grim picture ahead of general elections expected in October. No one can also deny the prospect of military interference that looms large.
Pakistan started the New Year “2023” with so many difficulties. The government that took over in April 2022 is finding it difficult to calm domestic politics and rescue the economy. It also failed miserably in the security arena. The incumbent government also failed to chalk out a clear foreign policy and bolster national security to help secure the nuclear South Asian nation of over 230 million populations.
The country’s new army chief just assumed the powerful post, and it is not clear how he might influence the course of events. The former army chief reiterated after six years, where many people accused him of incompetence that turned Pakistan into political instability.
Meanwhile, the former Prime Minister Imran Khan accused the army establishment of interfering to topple his government, where he called it a foreign conspiracy as well.
Ex-premier Khan is calm after Fawad’s arrest
Former PM, and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan on Thursday said that if the “state and cabal of crooks think they can create an environment of fear and terrify us into submission, they have got it all wrong.”
Khan’s comments come a day after PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry, and a former federal minister was arrested from his Lahore residence in the wee hours of Wednesday after he publicly threatened the members of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and their families in a media talk a day earlier.
In a Twitter post, Khan said that the treatment being “meted out to Fawad Ch – being abducted, treated like a terrorist, given physical remand on a sham FIR – shows all that is wrong with Pakistan today.”
“There is no justice, just law of the jungle. If the State and cabal of crooks think they can create an environment of fear and terrify us into submission, they have got it all wrong,” he added.
Khan furthered, “People are more determined to stand up against this fascism and my Party and I are more resolute than ever before to fight against these fascist forces for democracy, rule of law and justice for our people.”
Fawad should be behind bar earlier
Ex-Punjab chief minister Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, without naming Fawad Chaudhry, said had the former federal minister been arrested earlier, it would have been more “favorable”.
“Imran Khan’s close aides struck at the roots of the PTI. One out of four or five people, who are close to Khan, has been arrested. Things would be better if he was arrested earlier,” Elahi said Thursday during his address at an event in Lahore according to The News.
Chaudhry was arrested and taken to Islamabad, where the capital’s police were granted a two-day remand of the PTI leader in the sedition case. His arrest also drew strong criticism.
However, hours after making remarks about PTI’s incarcerated leader, Elahi took a U-turn and tendered an apology for his statement during the event.
“We have long standing family terms with Fawad,” he said in a statement, adding that his recent remarks hurt the sentiments of his family and for it, he apologizes.
The new documentary
In a new documentary “Behind Closed Doors” ex-Primer Khan beside politics wrangling said that western nations are benefiting from corruption across Asia and that’s why they don’t have intention to stop corruption. Khan claimed that the West is “benefiting from money stolen from our countries.” The documentary will be coming out next month.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan
Khan voted out of confidence last April in what he believes was a US-orchestrated plot. He also survived an assassination attempt.
His testimony on corruption is the centerpiece of Behind Closed Doors, a daring new film by independent director Michael Oswald and producer Murtaza Mehdi.
Oswald is known for his previous work on tax havens, The Spider’s Web: Britain’s Second Empire.
“They are benefiting from billions of dollars which flow into their properties and their businesses stolen from this country,” Khan said according to Declassified UK.
“So, what incentive would they have? We are the ones who suffer, and this is the dilemma…this is the big problem which the entire developing world is facing.”
Khan was replaced by Shehbaz Sharif, who has been accused of embezzling funds to purchase a property in London. However, Shehbaz’s family denied the allegation.
Sluggish economy
Pakistan has so far failed to fulfill IMF conditions. Meanwhile, a $13 billion loan from Saudi Arabia and China has yet to materialize. Even if Pakistan gets the money, it will only add to the country’s $130 billion debt in a country with only a $376 billion economy in 2022.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has a plan to go for another $10 billion in debt to China with a significant upgrade of the national railway.
Pakistan has seen the economic growth by 2 percent in 2022, and its foreign reserves now stand at a perilously low of less than $6 billion. This money is not enough to cover even one month of imports.
The major setback was the extensive flooding in 2022 that killed 1,700 people and left billions of dollars in damage. Over 30 million people were displaced from their homes and also the flooding devastated agriculture and industrial park activities. Several industries have been forced to shut down after being unable to get access to electricity and natural gas. Pakistan has been considering a $16 billion flood-relief package from international donors.
It will be a great catastrophe for the country if the government fails to improve its economy before the next general election, and in that case, the incumbent government will be blameworthy for all the miseries.
Asia
China trade fair: US market ‘frozen’ amid tariff hikes

Candice Li, attending the China trade fair in Canton, says that US orders for her firm’s medical devices have dried up after Washington increased tariffs on Chinese goods by 145%.
Speaking to Reuters, Candice Li, marketing manager at Conmo Electronic Co., said, “This is a matter of life and death because 60%-70% of our business is with American clients.” She added, “Goods cannot be exported, and money cannot be collected. This is a very serious situation.”
Li was at her firm’s booth at the Canton Fair in the southern city of Guangzhou, China’s largest trade fair, held twice a year, where more than 30,000 participants display their products in an area larger than 200 soccer fields.
This fair is the first China has held since US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs earlier this month, exceeding 100% for China and at least 10% for the rest of the world.
Most of the exporters Reuters spoke with said that US orders, vital for firms like Li’s, were either delayed or not arriving—a bad sign for the world’s second-largest economy, whose growth last year relied heavily on its trillion-dollar trade surplus.
No other country comes close to China’s sales of over $400 billion in goods to the US annually.
Even though the tariffs Trump will impose on the rest of the world are much lower, they are likely to reduce global demand in the coming months and, indirectly, the appetite for Chinese goods in other countries.
Kobe Huang, a sales representative for Shenzhen Landun Environmental Technology, which produces water filters and smart toilets, said at the China trade fair in Canton that European sales are up for now, but the US market is “frozen.”
“US clients and distributors haven’t canceled orders, but they’ve asked us to wait. So, we’re holding on,” he stated.
Levy Spence, a US importer and president of Air Esscentials, said, “Prices will go up.” He added, “Even for products we source in the United States, many of the raw materials come from all over the world. It’s not just about China tariffs.”
Organizers noted that approximately 170,000 overseas buyers had registered for this month’s fair as of April 8, compared to a record attendance of 253,000 at the previous fair, which ended in November. About 10% of these attendees come from the US and Europe, whereas the previous rate was about 20%.
The fair will take place from April 15 to May 5. Local media reported that a total of $25 billion in deals were made at the previous fair.
Many exporters said they were either moving production bases outside of China or shifting the markets where they sell away from the US.
Henry Han, sales manager at Apexto Electronics Co., which produces SSD and micro SD flash drives, says that the US market, which accounted for 30% before the pandemic, now accounts for only 10% of direct sales. Many of his clients receive shipments of components for final assembly in a third country to avoid tariffs.
Apexto conducted a study last year to see if it could move production to Vietnam or the Philippines to avoid being directly affected by US tariffs, but Han said these plans are currently on hold as these countries may also face high tariffs.
After Trump imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam and 17% on the Philippines on April 2, he reduced these rates to 10% for the next three months while beginning bilateral negotiations on trade with approximately 75 different countries.
David Du, sales manager for speaker manufacturer Zealot, said that an order for 30,000 speakers to be distributed to Skechers stores in the US was suspended after Trump’s tariffs. However, he said they could rely on other markets.
Zealot had a major and unexpected breakthrough in Nigeria in 2015, where its all-in-one speaker, power bank, and emergency flashlight became a hit, accounting for 40% of total sales and taking 45 containers a month—a market now twice as large as the US.
Du said they are “as big as JBL” in Nigeria, referring to the California-based audio equipment brand.
Medical device maker Li said her firm cannot find new markets overnight. She fears Conmo will soon have to reduce working hours and, eventually, staffing levels.
Li said, “I worry that if the situation remains deadlocked and neither side gives in, it will be ordinary people who ultimately suffer. How will salaries be paid? There will be unemployment.”
Asia
Japanese prime minister warns of US tariffs’ impact on global economy

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned on Monday that US tariffs could disrupt the global economic order. However, he also emphasized that Japan would seek common ground with the US on how the two countries could cooperate on various issues, from trade to national security.
“When negotiating with the US, we need to understand the logic and emotional elements behind Trump’s views,” Ishiba said in a parliamentary speech.
“I am fully aware that what has happened so far has the potential to disrupt the global economic order,” he said.
Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba also stated that the government is not currently considering issuing a supplementary budget but is ready to take timely action to mitigate the economic impact of US tariffs. Ishiba had previously described Trump’s tariffs as a “national crisis” for Japan. Ishiba stated, “We must call this a national crisis. The government will do everything possible to respond to this crisis affecting the entire country.”
These statements come before the start of bilateral trade talks on Thursday, which are expected to cover various issues, from tariffs and non-tariff barriers to exchange rates.
In his latest statement on tariffs on Sunday, Trump said he would announce the tariff rate to be applied to imported semiconductors within the next week.
Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s top negotiator in trade talks with the US, said any discussion of exchange rates would take place between Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
“Both countries share the view that excessive market volatility will have negative effects on the economy,” Kato said at the same parliamentary session.
Trump’s tariffs are expected to hit the Japanese economy hard. A failed response from Ishiba could become a liability for the prime minister as he leads his party into upper house elections this summer.
Prime Minister Ishiba’s cabinet was already shaky within the LDP and suffering from low approval ratings. His government faces a difficult task, including persuading affected industries within the country to comply with the outcome of negotiations and preparing aid measures.
Asia
Taiwan courts Trump amidst tariff reprieve

When US President Donald Trump stated that he would impose a 32% “reciprocal” tariff on Taiwanese exports, Taiwan’s leader, Lai Ching-te, responded cautiously. With Trump’s decision to delay, a critical 90 days awaits the Lai administration.
Since Trump’s return to the White House in January, Taiwan has made significant efforts to gain favor with Trump and maintain unofficial relations. The largest chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), has pledged a $100 billion investment in the US, a move supported by Lai. Last month, Taiwan hosted Alaska’s Republican Governor, Mike Dunleavy, a Trump ally, and planned to import liquefied natural gas from the state. The Lai administration has also aligned with US calls for increased defense spending, promising to raise it to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Trump still included Taiwan on his tariff target list. However, his abrupt decision to halt tariffs, except for a 10% baseline rate for everyone, may have opened a “bargaining” window for Taiwan to persuade Trump.
“Now that we have another 90 days, we can discuss Taiwan-US economic and trade cooperation in more detail and depth,” Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, Lin Chia-lung, told reporters on Thursday.
Lin praised the potential collaboration, stating, “We hope to create a joint fleet approach by leveraging the US’s enormous market, excellent technology capital, and talent in a Taiwan-US coalition.”
According to local media, Lai said on Friday that Taiwan was among the “first” on the list for discussions with the Trump administration.
Expressing confidence in Taiwan’s economy in a special broadcast last week, Lai emphasized strengthening industrial cooperation with the US and upgrading Taiwanese industries in global supply chains.
“Taiwan has no plans to adopt retaliatory tariffs to address the US’s reciprocal tariffs. There will be no changes to corporate investment commitments to the US as long as they are consistent with national interests,” Lai stated.
He added, “At the same time, we must ensure that the US clearly understands Taiwan’s contributions to US economic development.”
In an op-ed published by Bloomberg this week, Lai detailed his planned approach. He stated that his administration is willing to reduce its tariffs to zero “on a reciprocal basis with the US.” He also pledged to expand purchases of American goods, continue additional arms purchases, continue making new investments “across the US,” and remove non-tariff barriers while addressing US concerns about export controls and improper transshipment through Taiwan.
“Lai’s approach to foreign relations is cautious and focused primarily on US relations, and secondarily on Japan,” said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, President of the US-Taiwan Business Council.
Hammond-Chambers noted that the sentiment of “deterring China” brings with it the understanding that strong relations with America “must be maintained at all costs.”
In a speech in February, Lai emphasized shared values and expressed gratitude for Trump’s support. Lai pledged to continue reforming and improving defense to encompass “the entire society” and to prioritize special budget allocations to ensure defense spending exceeds 3% of GDP.
The US government has supported Lai’s security reforms, with the de facto American Ambassador, Raymond Greene, openly expressing this support.
TSMC’s $100 billion investment marks the latest in a wave of companies committing large sums to the US: Taiwan and the US are preparing to sign a long-awaited agreement to end double taxation, which will smooth the path.
Hammond-Chambers said that Lai’s approach has so far been well-received among Republican legislators and Trump administration officials.
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