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The fragile state

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Pakistan has been suffering from economic, political, and security challenges. The mounting insecurity and recent terrorist attacks that killed a number of security forces, have painted a grim picture ahead of general elections expected in October. No one can also deny the prospect of military interference that looms large.

Pakistan started the New Year “2023” with so many difficulties. The government that took over in April 2022 is finding it difficult to calm domestic politics and rescue the economy. It also failed miserably in the security arena. The incumbent government also failed to chalk out a clear foreign policy and bolster national security to help secure the nuclear South Asian nation of over 230 million populations.

The country’s new army chief just assumed the powerful post, and it is not clear how he might influence the course of events. The former army chief reiterated after six years, where many people accused him of incompetence that turned Pakistan into political instability.

Meanwhile, the former Prime Minister Imran Khan accused the army establishment of interfering to topple his government, where he called it a foreign conspiracy as well.

Ex-premier Khan is calm after Fawad’s arrest

Former PM, and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan on Thursday said that if the “state and cabal of crooks think they can create an environment of fear and terrify us into submission, they have got it all wrong.”

Khan’s comments come a day after PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry, and a former federal minister was arrested from his Lahore residence in the wee hours of Wednesday after he publicly threatened the members of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and their families in a media talk a day earlier.

In a Twitter post, Khan said that the treatment being “meted out to Fawad Ch – being abducted, treated like a terrorist, given physical remand on a sham FIR – shows all that is wrong with Pakistan today.”

“There is no justice, just law of the jungle. If the State and cabal of crooks think they can create an environment of fear and terrify us into submission, they have got it all wrong,” he added.

Khan furthered, “People are more determined to stand up against this fascism and my Party and I are more resolute than ever before to fight against these fascist forces for democracy, rule of law and justice for our people.”

Fawad should be behind bar earlier

Ex-Punjab chief minister Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, without naming Fawad Chaudhry, said had the former federal minister been arrested earlier, it would have been more “favorable”.

“Imran Khan’s close aides struck at the roots of the PTI. One out of four or five people, who are close to Khan, has been arrested. Things would be better if he was arrested earlier,” Elahi said Thursday during his address at an event in Lahore according to The News.

Chaudhry was arrested and taken to Islamabad, where the capital’s police were granted a two-day remand of the PTI leader in the sedition case. His arrest also drew strong criticism.

However, hours after making remarks about PTI’s incarcerated leader, Elahi took a U-turn and tendered an apology for his statement during the event.

“We have long standing family terms with Fawad,” he said in a statement, adding that his recent remarks hurt the sentiments of his family and for it, he apologizes.

The new documentary

In a new documentary “Behind Closed Doors” ex-Primer Khan beside politics wrangling said that western nations are benefiting from corruption across Asia and that’s why they don’t have intention to stop corruption. Khan claimed that the West is “benefiting from money stolen from our countries.” The documentary will be coming out next month.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan

Khan voted out of confidence last April in what he believes was a US-orchestrated plot. He also survived an assassination attempt.

His testimony on corruption is the centerpiece of Behind Closed Doors, a daring new film by independent director Michael Oswald and producer Murtaza Mehdi.

Oswald is known for his previous work on tax havens, The Spider’s Web: Britain’s Second Empire.

“They are benefiting from billions of dollars which flow into their properties and their businesses stolen from this country,” Khan said according to Declassified UK.

“So, what incentive would they have? We are the ones who suffer, and this is the dilemma…this is the big problem which the entire developing world is facing.”

Khan was replaced by Shehbaz Sharif, who has been accused of embezzling funds to purchase a property in London. However, Shehbaz’s family denied the allegation.

Sluggish economy

Pakistan has so far failed to fulfill IMF conditions. Meanwhile, a $13 billion loan from Saudi Arabia and China has yet to materialize. Even if Pakistan gets the money, it will only add to the country’s $130 billion debt in a country with only a $376 billion economy in 2022.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has a plan to go for another $10 billion in debt to China with a significant upgrade of the national railway.

Pakistan has seen the economic growth by 2 percent in 2022, and its foreign reserves now stand at a perilously low of less than $6 billion. This money is not enough to cover even one month of imports.

The major setback was the extensive flooding in 2022 that killed 1,700 people and left billions of dollars in damage. Over 30 million people were displaced from their homes and also the flooding devastated agriculture and industrial park activities. Several industries have been forced to shut down after being unable to get access to electricity and natural gas. Pakistan has been considering a $16 billion flood-relief package from international donors.

It will be a great catastrophe for the country if the government fails to improve its economy before the next general election, and in that case, the incumbent government will be blameworthy for all the miseries.

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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