Diplomacy
Trump administration weighs purchasing Chagos Islands from Mauritius to secure Diego Garcia base
The United States is considering a plan to purchase the Chagos Islands from Mauritius, following the disruption of the United Kingdom’s plans to hand over sovereignty of the territory.
According to a proposal reported by The Telegraph, the administration of US President Donald Trump would bypass British officials to purchase the islands, thereby securing direct control of the joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia.
However, the report notes that the islands would first need to be established as an independent state, which would subsequently allow the US to negotiate the acquisition directly with Mauritius.
A previous legislative proposal that envisioned transferring the islands to Mauritius was shelved in April after the US withdrew its support for the agreement.
The acquisition of the islands is one of several proposals currently being evaluated by the US.
The latest plan was put forward by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and presented to Trump, though sources suggest it is not currently a leading option.
According to The Telegraph, some officials within the Trump administration are concerned that ceding the islands to Mauritius—an ally of China—could heighten the risk of espionage.
Last week, a delegation of Chagos refugees visiting the UK stated that the issue had been “usurped” within the corridors of British politics.
The six-member delegation from the Chagos Refugees Group expressed their full support for the UK reaching an agreement on the future of the islands.
“The most important thing is our rights,” the leader of the delegation, Louis Olivier Bancoult, said on Friday, adding:
“The British government has no real will to find a solution for our people. We need to find a way. We are still suffering and our position is clear: we have the right to live on the land where we were born.”
Diplomacy
EU authorizes Mediterranean naval mission to intercept suspected Russian shadow fleet tankers
European Union member states have authorized military vessels operating under the Mediterranean naval mission, Operation IRINI, to board and inspect foreign oil tankers suspected of being part of Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
The decision was announced by Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
Operation IRINI—named after the Greek word for “peace”—is a military maritime mission launched by the European Union in 2020. The primary objectives established at its inception were to enforce the United Nations arms embargo on Libya using aerial, satellite, and maritime assets, combat oil smuggling, and prevent human trafficking.
The operation conducts its activities in the central Mediterranean.
Kallas detailed the policy shift in statements made ahead of an informal meeting of EU defense ministers in Cyprus.
According to statements released by the European External Action Service (EEAS) press unit, Kallas said: “We will also discuss the shadow fleet. Our Operation IRINI has changed its rules of engagement and now allows for the seizure of vessels. The aim is to change the field practices of different countries regarding interaction with these vessels, because this situation genuinely poses a danger.”
The 20th sanctions package adopted by the European Union this spring includes prohibitions on maritime services associated with Russian oil and imposes restrictive measures on tankers.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated that the new package of measures also foresees the possibility of introducing a complete ban on the maritime transit of Russian energy resources.
The Moscow administration, conversely, characterizes the sanctions as illegal. Russian officials have previously issued warnings that retaliatory measures would be taken if military assets are deployed to seize vessels.
In a statement released at the end of March, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs asserted that EU countries were engaging in “piracy on the high seas” under the pretext of the “shadow fleet” term by stopping vessels they believe to be associated with the transport of Russian cargo and redirecting them to their own ports. The ministry pointed out that no such concept exists in international maritime law.
Nikolay Patrushev, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation and Chairman of the Maritime Board, also stated that European Union countries fabricated the concept of a “shadow fleet” to engage in piracy along maritime trade routes.
Diplomacy
Armenia election: Pashinyan claims victory with near-majority as opposition alleges power usurpation
Armenia held elections for the National Assembly on June 7. Following the opening of all ballot boxes, data released showed that the ruling Civil Contract Party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, secured 49.81% of the vote.
Pashinyan declared victory for his party before the votes were fully counted, a move that former President Robert Kocharyan characterized as an attempt to usurp power.
Armenia is governed under a parliamentary republic system, in which the head of government is determined by the parliamentary majority and the prime minister forms the cabinet.
Elections for the unicameral National Assembly are held every five years under a proportional representation system. Political parties must secure at least 4% of the vote to enter parliament. This threshold is set at 8% for alliances consisting of two parties, and 10% for coalitions comprising more than two parties.
Under the Electoral Code of Armenia, a single political force must hold at least 52% of the parliamentary seats to form a government independently.
The elections took place during a period of shifts in the country’s foreign policy trajectory. While Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan aims for Armenia’s accession to the European Union (EU), a law titled “On the Launch of the Process of Accession of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union” was adopted in the country one year ago.
A total of 18 political forces competed in the elections. Among these forces, alongside the ruling Civil Contract Party, was the Armenia Alliance led by Robert Kocharyan.
The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) and the Reborn Armenia parties are included within this alliance. Two other forces contending for seats in parliament were the Strong Armenia Alliance, which brings together the party of the same name alongside the New Times and United Armenians parties, and the Prosperous Armenia Party, led by businessman and billionaire Gagik Tsarukyan. The Strong Armenia Party is led by Armenian-Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, who is the president of the Russia-based Tashir Group of Companies.
According to a report by News.am, which cited preliminary data from the Central Electoral Commission of Armenia, the Civil Contract Party ranked first with 49.81% of the vote, receiving 727,160 votes after all ballots were processed.
The Strong Armenia Alliance finished in second place with 340,062 votes (23.29%), the Armenia Alliance came third with 145,097 votes (9.94%), and the Prosperous Armenia Party completed the election in fourth place with 58,368 votes (4%).
Incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared victory for his party when less than 20% of the votes had been counted. Pashinyan stated that the Civil Contract Party would form the government alone.
Asserting that his party received the votes of more Armenian citizens this time compared to the 2021 elections, Pashinyan stated during a press conference that opposition leaders Karapetyan, Kocharyan, and Tsarukyan should be held criminally responsible.
According to a report by Armenpress, Pashinyan characterized these figures as “representatives of the criminal-oligarchic system” and a “three-headed spy party of war” that must be eradicated.
Pashinyan also added that Armenia intends to maintain its course toward EU accession, but will nevertheless preserve its participation and membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and continue to develop relations with Russia.
Former President Robert Kocharyan evaluated Pashinyan’s declaration of victory before the election results were finalized as an attempt to pressure the Central Electoral Commission and usurp power.
In his statement on the matter, Kocharyan said: “Rather than instructing and threatening the judicial system and state institutions before the final results are announced, the current regime must bear legal responsibility for all election violations recorded during this period, the crude use of administrative resources, and the pressure exerted on the will of the citizens.”
Samvel Karapetyan, the leader of the Strong Armenia Alliance, also stated that the current authorities would not achieve the victory they desire.
Pointing out that Pashinyan declared victory when only 30% of the votes had been counted, Karapetyan stated that these figures represented data from rural areas and that the vote share of the Civil Contract Party would begin to decline as the counting in urban areas progressed.
Karapetyan further noted that the government conducted “special operations” targeting the Strong Armenia Alliance, stating that 75 members of the alliance were detained on election day alone.
Diplomacy
OECD warns prolonged Iran energy shock could trigger global recession and spike inflation
A prolonged disruption in energy supplies resulting from conflict in Iran would deal a severe blow to the global economy, according to a new economic outlook report published on Wednesday.
The research data indicated that such disruptions are highly likely to push countries into recession and lead to an increase in unemployment.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) described the effects of the war in question as the “dominant force shaping the global economic outlook.”
The report noted that if disruptions become persistent, global growth could slow down significantly, falling from 2.1% in 2026 to 1.8% in 2027. This deceleration could depress the world economy to levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Recession.
“With upward pressures from high commodity prices partially offset by weakening final demand, global inflation would rise by 0.4 percentage points in 2026 and by 1.3 percentage points in 2027,” OECD Chief Economist Stefano Scarpetta stated in the report.
Developing economies with limited energy reserves, alongside Asian economies heavily dependent on crude oil, fuel, and natural gas, were identified as being among the hardest hit by this situation.
Focusing on an alternative short-term scenario, researchers reported that if energy production and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz return to pre-conflict levels, growth could rebound to 3.1% in 2027.
The researchers stated that the vulnerability of the global economy to a “single choke point” underscores the necessity of strengthening supply chains and creating a more diversified energy supply. They emphasized that increasing investment to escape dependence on fossil fuel imports is now more urgent than ever.
The report also pointed out that rising defense spending this year is unlikely to expand productive capacity unless it generates spillover effects in non-defense sectors through innovation.
Scarpetta noted that policymakers face difficult decisions, stating, “Central banks could look through supply-driven price increases as long as inflation expectations remain well-anchored and second-round effects are kept under control. However, a policy move may become necessary if price pressures broaden or if growth weakens significantly.”
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices high since the US and Israel launched initial strikes against Iran in late February.
Although average fuel prices in the US have declined due to the influence of recent talks aimed at reaching an agreement to end the conflict, they remained high at $4.26, according to data released by AAA on Wednesday.
Following an average of $3.14 last year, the average last week also remained elevated, standing at the $4.50 level.
Public opinion polls conducted since the beginning of the conflict have revealed that a majority of Americans do not support the war due to the prolonged impacts on the cost of living.
The latest poll, published by Politico on Friday, showed that more than 60% of respondents believe President Trump has not done enough to protect Americans from the economic impacts of the war.
Fifty-three percent of those surveyed expressed that the cost of living is at the worst level they can remember, while a majority stated that their financial situation has deteriorated since Trump returned to office.
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