Chinese President Xi Jinping has intensified his calls for industrial independence, advocating for greater “self-sufficiency” in the nation’s manufacturing sector.

His remarks during a visit to a ball-bearing factory, which dates back to the Mao Zedong era, came just a week after the US and China signed a 90-day truce agreement in their ongoing trade war. Both nations had agreed to reduce tariffs of up to 145%, which had threatened to disrupt trade between the world’s two largest economies.

Economists contend that Chinese policymakers should focus on stimulating weak domestic demand, which has made the country dependent on manufacturing and exports for growth.

They also suggest that Beijing’s emphasis on production over consumption has exacerbated global economic imbalances, ultimately leading to the trade dispute with the US. However, Xi Jinping asserted that China’s focus on industrial output was the correct approach.

According to the state news agency Xinhua, Xi stated, “In the past, we relied on importing foreign fire, soap, and iron, but now we have become the world’s largest manufacturing country.”

He added, “We must continue to develop our manufacturing sector, insist on self-sufficiency and self-improvement, and master core technologies.”

China’s emphasis on self-sufficiency predates the current tensions with US President Donald Trump. In 2015, Xi launched a government program called Made in China 2025, which aims to expand domestic market share in strategic sectors through subsidies and policy support.

This initiative has accelerated since Trump’s first term, during which the US President initiated the initial phase of the trade war and imposed export restrictions, particularly on advanced technologies related to semiconductors.

In recent years, Western chambers of commerce operating in China have also grown more vocal in their complaints, alleging that China’s industrial and supply policies systematically favor domestic manufacturers, thereby reducing opportunities for foreign companies.

During his visit to the ancient city of Luoyang in Henan province, Xi Jinping urged officials to support the integration of China’s industry with academic research to foster innovation. Xi used the slogan, “May modernization with Chinese characteristics truly be realized.”

Since late last year, Beijing has signaled a shift toward prioritizing domestic consumption over manufacturing. Policymakers have also announced measures to loosen monetary policy, increase the central government’s budget deficit, and release funds to revitalize the stock market.

However, economists note that the government has not yet unveiled comprehensive reforms backed by large-scale funding to achieve a structural shift toward consumption in the economy.

China accounts for approximately 18% of global GDP but only 13% of global consumption. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the country constituted about 29% of global manufacturing value added in 2023, surpassing the combined total of the next four largest manufacturers: the US, Japan, Germany, and India.

Under Made in China 2025, Beijing has set specific market share targets for advanced technologies such as electric vehicles, high-speed trains, telecommunications, robotics, and other areas to boost the country’s industrial self-sufficiency.

A recent report by the Washington-based Rhodium Group noted that “Chinese firms have achieved significant successes in many products, sometimes more than doubling their domestic market share in the last decade.”

India and Russia have become more active in engaging with the Taliban these days. Recently, Indian External Affairs S Jaishankar had a telephonic conversation with Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

This dialogue is important for two reasons: 1- This is the first time that India has held talks with the Taliban at the level of foreign minister; 2- It is taking place in the midst of New Delhi’s tensions with Islamabad. According to some reports, Ibrahim Sadr, the Taliban’s deputy interior minister and a figure loyal to the group’s leader, also traveled to New Delhi during the recent war between Pakistan and India.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s deputy prime minister for economics, also led a delegation to the “Russia-Islamic World Summit” held for several days in the city of Kazan, Russia. In addition, it is said that Muttaqi is scheduled to travel to China next week and he already went to Iran today.

As for India, its foreign minister’s phone call with Muttaqi shows that New Delhi understands the importance of engaging with the Taliban. It would understand better if it were at war with Pakistan. If this call had been made in a normal situation, it might not have been of much importance. It can also be said that the Taliban acted in a way that satisfied both sides in the face of the Pakistan-India war, and Jaishankar called Muttaqi for this reason and praised the group’s apparently impartial stance, which led to the condemnation of the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir.

So that Pakistan would not be left out, the Taliban agreed to host a meeting in Kabul, where special representatives from Islamabad and Beijing for Afghanistan were present and met and discussed with the Taliban’s officials. Russia has also become more active than before, with Mullah Baradar’s visit to Kazan and his warm meetings with Russian officials and autonomous republics being a clear example that cannot be taken lightly. Furthermore, Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s special representative for Afghanistan, announced that the Taliban have nominated an ambassador to Moscow, the approval process of which is being reviewed by the host country’s foreign ministry.

These two recent events are the result of the suspension of the Taliban from Russia’s list of “prohibited groups.” Kabulov has also repeatedly said that the suspension of the Taliban from the blacklist leaves Moscow free to interact with the group in all areas. In this sense, Russia has crossed the line of interaction with the Taliban and has reached the edge of “official recognition” of the group; but it does not dare to carry the heavy burden of the regime’s official recognition of the group alone.

Why expand interaction?

It is true that India, in competition with Pakistan, is trying to compromise with the Taliban so that the group does not serve Islamabad’s interests and does not erase New Delhi’s footprint in Afghanistan. Similarly, Russia, in competition with the United States, is trying to win the hearts of the Taliban so that the group does not pave the way for Washington’s renewed presence in Afghanistan.

This is true in its place, but the more effective factor is the forces opposing the Taliban, which are considered too weak in the view of Moscow and New Delhi. If these forces are strong and working with them is not a waste of time, India and Russia, in opposition to Pakistan and the United States, will give ground to the currents opposing this group instead of giving value to the Taliban, and in this way, perhaps a door will open to remove the political blockage in the country.

India and Russia’s engagement with the Taliban is very important because in the past they strongly supported movements that fought against the group. While the engagement of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, etc. with the Taliban is neither new nor causes concern.

UNAMA plan unveiled amid increased engagement between regional governments and the Taliban

In the days when the competition among regional countries to engage with the Taliban has heated up, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) has apparently come up with a plan to overcome the current situation in Afghanistan, in which it has also sought the opinions of countries near and far.

The important point is that so far there has been no united and unified opposition from the anti-Taliban forces against this plan, and these forces have not even secretly tried to neutralize it. As usual, UNAMA is pursuing its mission, ignoring the concerns of the opposition to the Taliban, and is trying to implement the plan it has in hand.

Now, given the prevailing desire of countries to engage with the Taliban, it is not unlikely that what UNAMA has put on the table as a plan will be approved, and thus the opposing fronts of this group will be confronted with the action taken and, because of the past and present, will be unable to do anything to defend themselves.

India plans to significantly increase the amount of water it draws from a major river that feeds farmland in Pakistan’s lower basin. This move, according to four people familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters, is part of retaliatory measures holding Islamabad responsible for a deadly attack on tourists in April. The Indus Treaty has still not come into effect.

Delhi suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates the use of the Indus river system, after an incident in India’s Kashmir region where 26 civilians were killed, an event India described as a terrorist act. Pakistan denied involvement, but although the two nuclear-armed neighbors signed a ceasefire agreement last week after the most severe clashes in decades, the treaty has not re-entered force.

Following the April 22 attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi instructed officials to speed up the planning and execution of projects on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, which are three water sources within the Indus river system allocated for Pakistan’s use.

Two people said one of the significant plans being discussed is to double the length of the Ranbir canal on the Chenab river, which extends from India to Pakistan’s agricultural heartland, Punjab. The canal was built in the 19th century, long before the treaty was signed.

India is permitted to draw a limited amount of water from the Chenab river for irrigation purposes, but the expanded canal, which experts say could take years to build, would increase India’s water drawing capacity from approximately 40 cubic meters per second currently to 150 cubic meters per second.

Details of the Indian government’s discussions regarding the expansion of Ranbir had not been previously reported. The discussions began last month and are continuing after the ceasefire, said one of the individuals.

The ministries of water and external affairs, as well as Modi’s office, did not respond to Reuters’ questions. NHPC, India’s state-owned hydroelectric company which carries out many projects in the Indus system, also did not respond to an email requesting comment.

In a fiery speech this week, Modi said, without referring to the treaty, “Water and blood cannot flow together.” Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told reporters on Tuesday that India would “suspend the treaty until Pakistan credibly and irreversibly denies its support for cross-border terrorism.”

Pakistan’s ministries of water and foreign affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told lawmakers this week that the government had written a letter to India stating that the suspension of the treaty was illegal and that Islamabad considered the treaty to be in force.

Islamabad had announced after India suspended the treaty in April that it would consider “attempts to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan” as “an act of war.”

Approximately 80% of Pakistan, including nearly all hydroelectric projects serving its 250 million population, is dependent on the Indus river system.

David Michel, a water security expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that Delhi’s efforts to build dams, canals, or other infrastructure facilities that would block or divert significant amounts of water flow from the Indus river system to India would “take years to materialize.”

However, Pakistan experienced a preview of the pressure it could face from India: After India began maintenance work on some Indus projects, water levels at a key intake point in Pakistan briefly dropped by up to 90% in early May.

The Indus system originates near Lake Mansarovar in Tibet, flows through some of the world’s most geopolitically tense regions, passes through northern India and eastern and southeastern Pakistan, and empties into the Arabian Sea.

The treaty is considered one of the world’s most successful water-sharing agreements, having survived several major wars and long-standing tensions between India and Pakistan.

Islamabad had previously opposed several Indian projects in the Indus system, while Delhi had stated after the Kashmir attack that it had been trying to renegotiate the treaty since 2023 to take into account population growth and the increasing need for clean hydro energy.

The treaty largely limits India to building low-impact hydroelectric projects on the three rivers allocated primarily to Pakistan. Delhi is free to use the waters of the other three rivers, which are tributaries of the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi rivers, as it wishes.

According to two government documents seen by Reuters and interviews with five people familiar with the matter, in addition to the plans to expand the Ranbir canal, India is also considering projects that would reduce the amount of water flowing from the rivers allocated to Pakistan to that country.

An undated note prepared by a state company for officials evaluating irrigation plans stated that water from the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers could be “distributed” to rivers in three northern Indian states.

One of the individuals, who said that this document, details of which had not been previously made public, was prepared for discussions with energy ministry officials after the April 22 attack, also stated that Delhi had prepared a list of hydroelectric projects in its Jammu and Kashmir region aiming to increase the current capacity of 3,360 MW to 12,000 MW.

Delhi also prepared a list of hydroelectric projects in the Jammu and Kashmir region. These projects aim to increase the current capacity of 3,360 MW to 12,000 MW.

The list prepared by the Ministry of Power and seen by Reuters was undated. A person familiar with the document said the list was prepared before the Kashmir incident but was actively being discussed by government officials.

According to two people close to the matter, the planned projects include dams, which would be a first for India in the Indus river system, capable of storing large amounts of water.

According to the Ministry of Power document, India has identified at least five potential storage projects, four of which are located on tributaries of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers.

Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told Reuters on Monday, “Water should not be used as a weapon. We do not want to consider any scenario that does not take into account the re-entry into force of this agreement.”