Diplomacy
Who will be attending the BRICS Summit in Kazan?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and many other leaders are expected to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan on 22-24 October. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the summit would be important for BRICS expansion and international issues.
Representatives of more than 30 countries and heads of some international organisations have confirmed their participation in the BRICS Summit to be held in Kazan on 22-24 October.
At a press conference on 3 October, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov revealed only two names: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Dilma Rousseff, former president of Brazil and president of the New Development Bank.
Ryabkov declined to provide information about the other guests, saying they were “outside my mandate” and would be announced by the Russian presidential administration closer to the summit.
At the beginning of his speech, Ryabkov named five new members, including Saudi Arabia, which will join BRICS in early 2024, as well as the 10 existing BRICS members. All these countries will be represented at the highest level at the summit, the diplomat said.
In addition to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa are expected to attend the summit.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, Massoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, President of Egypt, Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, and Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, are also expected in Kazan.
Türkiye’s role and the Ukraine issue
Commenting on President Erdogan’s participation in the Kazan summit, Ryabkov confirmed that Türkiye has officially applied to join BRICS, but for now Erdogan will participate in BRICS Plus outreach events. Ryabkov recalled that a unanimous decision by all member states is required for a country to join BRICS.
The summit is also expected to discuss Ukraine, where Erdogan has differences with Moscow. At the “Crimea Platform” meeting in September, Türkiye took a stance in favour of Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea.
In this context, it is known that Moscow does not see the possibility of direct contact with Kiev, but is open to various solutions, including the BRICS countries.
Ryabkov also spoke about the strategic stabilisation talks with the United States. He said that Russia was not ready for dialogue ‘as long as the US intention to inflict a strategic defeat on us remains unchanged’. He also criticised Washington’s desire to limit its own nuclear arsenal without taking into account the nuclear weapons of its European allies.
BRICS expansion and future
Further expansion of BRICS is not on the agenda for the summit in Russia. Although some 40 countries have expressed a desire to join BRICS or establish close cooperation, the union’s primary goal is to complete the integration of new members by 1 January 2024.
Ryabkov stated that the doors of BRICS will remain open, but there are some criteria for countries to join the union. These criteria include pursuing an independent foreign policy, playing an important role in international and regional affairs, and having good relations with BRICS countries.
A report on granting the BRICS a new ‘partner country’ status will also be presented in Kazan.
Ryabkov acknowledged that there are some difficulties within BRICS. In particular, he stressed that the national interests of member countries do not always coincide and that a single currency is not yet on the agenda in some areas, including financial issues. However, he noted that BRICS should take its decisions unanimously, which could slow down the development of the union from time to time.
At the end of the press conference, Ryabkov responded to a question about the similarity of the international situation with the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Addressing his Western interlocutors, he said that the possibility of a direct confrontation between the nuclear powers should not be underestimated. We are now entering uncharted political and military territory. Our adversaries cannot afford to make a mistake, because the price of that mistake could be catastrophic,’ the deputy minister said.
Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian Council on International Relations, told Vedomosti newspaper that BRICS risks becoming a debating club incapable of taking effective decisions.
Kortunov said that the expansion of the organisation cannot be stopped and that steps towards expansion will be taken in Kazan. It is also expected that the status of a BRICS partner country will be more clearly defined and considered as a candidate status for future membership.
The issue of enlargement cannot be put on hold. Leaders who hope to join the organisation in one status or another are coming to Kazan,” the expert concluded.
Diplomacy
Trump administration resumes weapon shipments to Ukraine after pause

The administration of US President Donald Trump has resumed shipments of certain types of weapons to Ukraine after a one-week pause.
According to reports from Reuters and the Associated Press (AP), citing sources familiar with the matter, Kyiv has once again begun receiving 155mm artillery shells and high-precision Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) missiles.
The exact timing of the shipment resumption and the quantity of ammunition sent are unknown.
Previously, the US had frozen the transfer of 8,400 155mm artillery shells, 142 Hellfire missiles, 252 missiles for HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, and 30 interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems.
Pentagon’s decision caught Trump by surprise
The Pentagon suspended military aid to Ukraine in early July. According to sources speaking to CNN, Trump had instructed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to conduct an audit of weapon stockpiles, and Hegseth, without informing the White House, halted all arms shipments to Ukraine during the audit.
Hegseth’s decision caught Trump by surprise. The White House announced that it had not issued an order to stop military aid to Kyiv.
Following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump promised to provide more weapons to Kyiv and instructed the Pentagon to consider sending an additional Patriot air defense system.
The US President stated, “They are being hit very hard, very hard. So we will look into this matter.”
As noted by The Wall Street Journal, if the US sends a new air defense system to Kyiv, it would be the first time Trump has approved a new shipment of heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Until now, Washington had only continued shipments approved during the tenure of former President Joe Biden.
US quadruples Patriot procurement
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the US military plans to allocate more than $1.3 billion for the procurement of missiles for Patriot air defense systems in the new fiscal year starting October 1.
The report stated that the Pentagon has “quietly” quadrupled the total planned procurement volume of these air defense missiles.
According to the report, a group of senior military officials responsible for determining defense needs revised the procurement parameters in April, increasing the planned number of interceptor missiles from 3,376 to 13,773.
Bloomberg emphasized that this sharp increase in procurement volume highlights the US military’s growing reliance on PAC-3 MSE missiles in particular.
This situation also aligns with the efforts of the US and its allies to strengthen their air and missile defense systems.
For example, Ukraine relies heavily on Patriot batteries and the missiles supplied for these systems to repel intense Russian attacks on its cities.
According to budget records, the US had purchased 2,047 of these missiles by the start of the 2024 fiscal year. An additional 230 were acquired in 2024, and 214 in 2025.
For the year 2026, $945.9 million has been requested for the procurement of 224 new interceptor missiles. Of this amount, $549.6 million will come from the base budget, and $396.3 million will be covered under the “Atlantic Resolve” program, which aims to strengthen NATO’s defense in Europe.
Kremlin: Military aid will not end the war
The Kremlin has stated that the continuation of military aid to Ukraine will not contribute to ending the war.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, “It will take time to definitively clarify which specific shipments, and in what quantities, will continue to arrive in Ukraine from the US.”
However, according to sources close to the Kremlin speaking to The New York Times, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that Ukraine’s defense could collapse in the coming months and refuses to halt the conflict without significant concessions from Kyiv.
The news site Axios reported that during his phone call with Zelenskyy, Trump promised to urgently send ten interceptor missiles for Patriot systems to Kyiv.
Before this call, Trump had met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Merz had called for the resumption of missile shipments and expressed readiness to purchase additional Patriot batteries from the US to transfer to Ukraine.
According to sources, although no concrete agreement was reached, the matter continues to be discussed.
In a statement to the press at the White House, Trump also confirmed his intention to increase arms shipments to Kyiv, stating, “They must be able to defend themselves. They are taking very heavy blows right now.”
The Pentagon also confirmed that, on Trump’s instructions, additional “defensive weapons” will be sent so that Ukraine can maintain its positions until a lasting peace is achieved.
Diplomacy
US buyers bypass China’s critical mineral ban via Thailand and Mexico

According to customs and shipping records, an extraordinary flow of antimony—a metal used in batteries, chips, and flame retardants—began entering the US from Thailand and Mexico after China banned shipments to the US last year. Records obtained by Reuters indicate that at least one Chinese company is involved in this trade, revealing how US buyers of critical minerals are circumventing China’s export ban.
China dominates the supply of antimony, as well as gallium and germanium, which are crucial for telecommunications, semiconductors, and military technology. On December 3, Beijing banned the export of these minerals to the US following pressure from Washington on China’s chip sector.
Trade data suggests that US shipments are being rerouted through third countries, a situation that Chinese officials have acknowledged. This assessment was confirmed by executives from two US companies, who told Reuters they have sourced restricted minerals from China in recent months.
According to US customs data, the US imported 3,834 metric tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico between December and April. This volume is nearly greater than the total from the previous three years combined. Meanwhile, Chinese customs data shows that Thailand and Mexico have become top-three destinations for China’s antimony exports this year. Neither country ranked in the top 10 in 2023, the last full year before Beijing imposed the restrictions.
According to the consulting firm RFC Ambrian, there is only one antimony smelter across both Thailand and Mexico, with the Mexican facility having reopened in April. Neither country mines significant quantities of the metal. Despite higher prices, US imports of antimony, gallium, and germanium this year are on pace to meet or exceed pre-ban levels.
Ram Ben Tzion, co-founder and CEO of the digital shipment inspection platform Publican, stated that while there is clear evidence of transshipment, the trade data does not allow for the identification of the specific companies involved. “This is a pattern we’ve seen, and it’s consistent,” he told Reuters, adding that Chinese companies are “extremely creative in circumventing regulations.”
In May, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that some unspecified foreign entities were “collaborating with domestic smugglers” to bypass export restrictions, declaring that halting such activities was essential for national security. The ministry did not respond to Reuters‘ questions regarding the shift in trade flows since December. The US Department of Commerce, Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce, and Mexico’s Ministry of Economy also did not respond to similar inquiries.
US law does not prohibit American buyers from purchasing antimony, gallium, or germanium of Chinese origin. Chinese firms are permitted to ship these minerals to countries other than the US if they possess the necessary licenses.
Levi Parker, CEO and founder of the US-based company Gallant Metals, told Reuters that he sources approximately 200 kg of gallium from China each month. He declined to identify the parties involved, citing potential repercussions. The process begins with purchasing agents in China who procure the materials from manufacturers. A shipping company then relabels the packages as iron, zinc, or art supplies and routes them through another Asian country.
Parker noted that these workarounds are neither perfect nor cheap. He explained that he would like to import 500 kg regularly, but larger shipments risk scrutiny, prompting Chinese logistics firms to be “very careful” due to the associated risks.
Diplomacy
BlackRock halts work on Ukraine reconstruction fund amid Trump uncertainty

US-based BlackRock, the world’s largest investment company, has reportedly halted its efforts to find investors for a planned reconstruction fund for Ukraine.
According to a report by Bloomberg that cited sources familiar with the matter, the decision is driven by uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine.
The fund was scheduled to be unveiled at a conference on Ukraine’s reconstruction on July 10-11, an event attended by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Sources indicated that the initiative was close to securing initial support from entities linked to the governments of Germany, Italy, and Poland.
However, with the possibility of Trump returning to the White House in January, BlackRock has decided to temporarily suspend its discussions with institutional investors, citing uncertainty about future support for Ukraine.
Alternative plan from France
Bloomberg has also learned that France is now developing an alternative plan, which includes creating a new fund to replace the initiative that BlackRock has suspended. The effectiveness of this new plan without US participation, however, remains a significant question.
A BlackRock representative stated that the company completed its pro bono advisory work for the Ukraine project in 2024 and currently has “no active commitments” to the Ukrainian government.
“The only discussions that influence BlackRock’s decisions are those the firm has with its clients,” the representative emphasized.
The fund’s $15 billion target
BlackRock Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand, who was previously involved in the negotiations, had announced plans to attract at least $500 million from governments, international development banks, and other public donors, along with approximately $2 billion from private investors.
According to Hildebrand, uniting investors under a single consortium would have enabled the direction of at least $15 billion in equity and debt investments toward Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The World Bank estimates that the total cost for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction exceeds €500 billion. Rebuilding the country’s port infrastructure alone is projected to require at least €1 billion.
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