Diplomacy
Pakistan hosts a major security meeting tomorrow; Taliban not invited
Pakistan is going to host a major security meeting tomorrow (Tuesday) with senior leaders from the regional countries, including China, Russia and India among them.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established in 2001 by China and Russia in order to discuss security concerns in Central Asian states and the wider region. At the height of political tensions, Pakistan will host the SCO meeting in the capital city, Islamabad, and it will be held under strict security measures, and Pakistan has declared a public holiday for three days.
The Taliban, the current ruler of Afghanistan, have not been officially invited to this meeting. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan has announced that seven Prime Ministers, one Vice President and the Foreign Minister of India will participate in this meeting.
This is the first major regional meeting that Pakistan is hosting after many years in the wake of Pashtoon justice jirga which has been held in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province with participation of thousands of people from different segments of the country. Meanwhile, protests by the supporters of the former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s have also made the political atmosphere of this country tense.
At the same time, the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan has always been a serious concern of the members of this SCO, and the presence of terrorist groups and drug smuggling from Afghanistan were also a great concern among the members at the Shanghai Summit in Kazakhstan.
However, Pakistan is hosting the 23rd meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the SCO, which is the second highest meeting of this organization. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan has announced that the prime ministers of China, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, along with the first vice president of Iran and the foreign minister of India, will attend the meeting.
Afghanistan’s membership in SCO is not clear since September 2021 when Taliban return to power.
Also, the Prime Minister of Mongolia as an observer member and Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan will participate in the meeting as special guests.
In 2005, the contact group of the Shanghai-Afghanistan Cooperation Organization was established, and since then efforts have increased for Afghanistan to be a permanent member of this organization.
However, after the collapse of the republic system and the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan, the status of Afghanistan’s membership in this organization is not clear, and the Taliban also not invited in this meeting.
Express Tribune, a Pakistani media outlet, has reported, quoting its diplomatic sources, that the Taliban were not invited to the Summit.
According to the Tribune, the secretariat of this meeting has not issued any invitation to the Taliban. The absence of the Taliban in this meeting has been confirmed after the secretariat of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization did not send an invitation to the Taliban.
This decision has been taken due to the current situation in Afghanistan and the non-recognition of the Taliban by any country, as well as the inactive status of Afghanistan’s permanent membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
The report also said that Afghanistan’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been inactive since September 2021.
Members of SCO expressed concern over presence of IS and al-Qaeda terrorists in Afghanistan.
Moreover, the heads of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization expressed their concerns about the activities of Islamic State (IS), also known as Daesh, al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan on July three of this year in Kazakhstan. Some of these countries have said that opium and heroin are smuggled from Afghanistan to their soil.
Meanwhile, the Pakistan media reported that the security institutions have tightened security, and they are ready to maintain security of the summit.
Pakistani media also reported about the non-participation of the Indian Prime Minister in this meeting. It is said that India and Pakistan participate in the meeting of the Council of Heads of State at the level of foreign ministers, because the prime ministers of these countries participate in the meeting of the heads of state, which is the highest forum of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Shahbaz Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, will preside over this meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and on the sidelines of the meeting, he will discuss with the delegations of countries about regional issues and strengthening Pakistan’s economic relations with the members of SCO.
According to the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, this meeting will be about ongoing cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, environment and socio-cultural ties and will review the performance of this organization in the mentioned fields.
This important regional meeting will be held in Pakistan while this country is at the height of political tensions and ethnic differences. The supporters of Imran Khan, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, gathered in the streets of Islamabad last week and demanded Mr. Khan’s release from prison. They warned with anti-government slogans that if the former prime minister is not released, they will come to the streets again.
Pakistan hosting SCO at a time when political stability is fragile in the country.
On the other hand, the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement has held a “Pashtoon Jirga” in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Thousands of people, including Pashtun political leaders from different political currents, have participated in this Jirga.
This Jirga has faced widespread reactions among the citizens and politicians of Afghanistan. A number of non-Pashtun activists considered this Jirga ethnic and considered it the cause of hypocrisy among the citizens of the country, while another group supported the claim of this movement and described it as an action to ensure justice at the regional level.
At the same time, a number of politicians have said that neither exaggerated descriptions nor prejudiced reactions are the solution, and it remains to be seen what the outcome of this Jirga will be in light of the rapid developments taking place in the region.
SCO is a political, economic and security alliance working for betterment of the region
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a political, economic and security alliance in Eurasia that was established in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The organization has since expanded to include India, Pakistan and Iran as full members, while Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia are recognized as observers and other countries as dialogue partners. The SCO is often seen as a counterbalance to Western alliances such as NATO and plays an important role in strengthening regional cooperation.
The highest decision-making body of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is the Council of Heads of State (CHS). This council meets once a year and deals with important issues of the organization.
The Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) (CHG) is also held once a year to review the strategy of multilateral cooperation and priorities within the organization, determine fundamental issues and current issues in the economic and other fields, and approve the budget of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
The organization has two permanent bodies: the Secretariat in Beijing and the Executive Committee of the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) in Tashkent.
Afghanistan had joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an observer member on June 7, 2012.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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