Diplomacy
Who will be attending the BRICS Summit in Kazan?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and many other leaders are expected to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan on 22-24 October. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the summit would be important for BRICS expansion and international issues.
Representatives of more than 30 countries and heads of some international organisations have confirmed their participation in the BRICS Summit to be held in Kazan on 22-24 October.
At a press conference on 3 October, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov revealed only two names: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Dilma Rousseff, former president of Brazil and president of the New Development Bank.
Ryabkov declined to provide information about the other guests, saying they were “outside my mandate” and would be announced by the Russian presidential administration closer to the summit.
At the beginning of his speech, Ryabkov named five new members, including Saudi Arabia, which will join BRICS in early 2024, as well as the 10 existing BRICS members. All these countries will be represented at the highest level at the summit, the diplomat said.
In addition to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa are expected to attend the summit.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, Massoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, President of Egypt, Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, and Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, are also expected in Kazan.
Türkiye’s role and the Ukraine issue
Commenting on President Erdogan’s participation in the Kazan summit, Ryabkov confirmed that Türkiye has officially applied to join BRICS, but for now Erdogan will participate in BRICS Plus outreach events. Ryabkov recalled that a unanimous decision by all member states is required for a country to join BRICS.
The summit is also expected to discuss Ukraine, where Erdogan has differences with Moscow. At the “Crimea Platform” meeting in September, Türkiye took a stance in favour of Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea.
In this context, it is known that Moscow does not see the possibility of direct contact with Kiev, but is open to various solutions, including the BRICS countries.
Ryabkov also spoke about the strategic stabilisation talks with the United States. He said that Russia was not ready for dialogue ‘as long as the US intention to inflict a strategic defeat on us remains unchanged’. He also criticised Washington’s desire to limit its own nuclear arsenal without taking into account the nuclear weapons of its European allies.
BRICS expansion and future
Further expansion of BRICS is not on the agenda for the summit in Russia. Although some 40 countries have expressed a desire to join BRICS or establish close cooperation, the union’s primary goal is to complete the integration of new members by 1 January 2024.
Ryabkov stated that the doors of BRICS will remain open, but there are some criteria for countries to join the union. These criteria include pursuing an independent foreign policy, playing an important role in international and regional affairs, and having good relations with BRICS countries.
A report on granting the BRICS a new ‘partner country’ status will also be presented in Kazan.
Ryabkov acknowledged that there are some difficulties within BRICS. In particular, he stressed that the national interests of member countries do not always coincide and that a single currency is not yet on the agenda in some areas, including financial issues. However, he noted that BRICS should take its decisions unanimously, which could slow down the development of the union from time to time.
At the end of the press conference, Ryabkov responded to a question about the similarity of the international situation with the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Addressing his Western interlocutors, he said that the possibility of a direct confrontation between the nuclear powers should not be underestimated. We are now entering uncharted political and military territory. Our adversaries cannot afford to make a mistake, because the price of that mistake could be catastrophic,’ the deputy minister said.
Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian Council on International Relations, told Vedomosti newspaper that BRICS risks becoming a debating club incapable of taking effective decisions.
Kortunov said that the expansion of the organisation cannot be stopped and that steps towards expansion will be taken in Kazan. It is also expected that the status of a BRICS partner country will be more clearly defined and considered as a candidate status for future membership.
The issue of enlargement cannot be put on hold. Leaders who hope to join the organisation in one status or another are coming to Kazan,” the expert concluded.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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