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Winter is here, the gas line is down, the grain corridor is suspended

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Following attacks on Russia’s Black Sea fleet, Moscow withdrew from the grain corridor deal. An air strike was launched on Monday morning against Ukrainian cities, especially in Kiev. Following the suspension of the grain corridor, wheat prices rose on international exchanges.

Russia withdrew from the grain deal following the attack on the Crimean bridge and Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Moscow, which intensified missile attacks on Ukraine, fired again on the cities of Ukraine on the morning of October 31. Explosions were heard in the regions of Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovograd, Kharkiv, and Odesa. Russia has launched 40 cruise missiles, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine said.

“An area of Kyiv is without electricity and certain areas without water following Russian strikes on critical infrastructure. All units are working” Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on Telegram.

Following the attack on Russian ships on Saturday, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that “Russia suspends its participation in the implementation of the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Ukrainian ports.”

Russia: Britain played a role in the attacks

Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov had provided the following information about the details of the attack on Russian ships: “Today at 4:20 am (Moscow time), the Kyiv regime carried out a terrorist attack on the ships of the Black Sea Fleet and civilian vessels.”

“The ships of the Black Sea Fleet that were subjected to a terrorist attack are involved in ensuring the security of the grain corridor within the framework of the international initiative for the export of agricultural products from Ukrainian ports” Konashenkov said.

Stating that the attack on the Russian Black Sea fleet “were carried out under the leadership of British specialists”, Konashenkov claimed that the same unit affiliated with the British Navy was also responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines on September 26.

Britain’s Defense Ministry rejected Russia’s allegations in a statement on its Twitter account:

“To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale. This invented story, says more about arguments going on inside the Russian Government than it does about the west.”

The Ukrainian government accused Russia of using the grain deal as a means of blackmail and of inventing “fictitious terror attacks.”

Turkiye is in for the mediation role

With the withdrawal of Russia from the “Grain Corridor” deal, the transport of more than 200 ships was blocked. This incident also affected the wheat index. On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures jumped 5.4 percent to $8.7. Wheat prices rose to $13.6 in international markets in March.

Upon the developments, the Ministry of National Defense (MoND) announced that “there will be no shipping from Ukraine”. Stating that Russian personnel are still at the Coordination center in Istanbul; “The Republic of Turkiye will continue to do its part in ensuring peace and humanitarian aid in the region as it has done so far.”

The United Nations, Turkiye and Ukraine agreed on an Oct. 31 movement plan for 16 vessels, an official from the U.N. told Reuters. The official said the Moscow side was also informed about the issue.

After pulling out of the deal, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he does not believe it is possible to continue the implementations. “In conditions when Russia is talking about the impossibility of guaranteeing the safety of shipping in these areas, such a deal is hardly feasible, and it takes on a different character – much more risky, dangerous and unguaranteed,” Peskov told Sputnik news.

Moscow’s expectation on Russian grain

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “We urge all parties to keep this essential, life-saving initiative functioning.” EU High Representative for Foreign Relations and Security Policy Josep Borrell said the pulling out of the deal endangers the main export route of grains and fertilizers. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna also urged Russia to reconsider its decision to suspend.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also made a statement about the issue. Pointing to Russia’s sensitivities, Erdoğan referred to Moscow’s expectation by saying, “Although Russia is hesitant in this regard as the same facilities are not provided for itself, we will continue our efforts to serve humanity.”

Brokered by the United Nations and Turkiye in Istanbul, the “Grain Corridor” deal covered the removal of obstacles to Russian grain reaching the world markets. However, no concrete steps have been taken to meet Russia’s expectations so far.

Speaking to Hurriyet newspaper three days ago, Russian Ambassador to Ankara Alexei Yerkhov said, “Well, does Russian grain not attract anyone’s attention? No one is questioning its fate. They better ask, because Russia’s grain potential seriously exceeds our Ukrainian neighbors’ export opportunities, given this year’s record harvest.”

Russia

Drone strike ignites St. Petersburg oil terminal as major economic forum opens

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Drone strikes targeted Russia’s Leningrad region overnight, sparking a fire at a strategically vital oil terminal in St. Petersburg on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The attacks, which struck multiple regions across Russia, prompted widespread airspace restrictions and targeted military-industrial facilities.

Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region, announced that Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) carried out an attack on the region during the night of June 3.

According to information provided by the governor, a total of 50 drones were shot down during the aerial assault, which began around 02:00 and continued until 07:00. Governor Drozdenko did not share detailed information regarding any damage or casualties resulting from the attack.

Local media outlet Bumaga reported that the sounds of explosions were heard in the Admiralteysky, Vasileostrovsky, Primorsky, and Krasnoselsky districts of St. Petersburg.

In the Kirovsky district, the attack resulted in a fire at the Petersburg Oil Terminal, one of Russia’s largest oil transshipment facilities on the Baltic Sea.

With an annual transit capacity of 12.5 million metric tons of fuel and housing 21 reservoirs used for storing petroleum products, this enterprise holds strategic importance for ensuring Russia’s security.

The drone attack on the oil terminal occurred on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), scheduled to take place from June 3 to 6, where Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to deliver a speech.

The Expoforum exhibition center, where the forum is being held, is reportedly located approximately 17 kilometers from the targeted oil terminal. Due to drone activity and the threat of aerial attacks, more than 29 flights experienced delays at Pulkovo Airport.

On the same night, the city of Michurinsk in the Tambov region, located in the interior of Russia, was also targeted by aerial attacks. Region Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov stated in a declaration on the matter: “As a result of the crash of UAVs belonging to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an apartment building, a library, and an art school were damaged, with their windows shattered, and the outbuildings of an industrial enterprise were also damaged. There are no casualties or injuries.”

According to an investigation by the Astra news portal, the primary target of the drones in the area was the Progress factory, which manufactures control systems for aviation and missile technologies.

The military-industrial facility in question had previously been subjected to drone attacks in February of this year, as well as in June 2025 and December 2024.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced in a statement that a total of 354 drones were shot down over Russian territory throughout the night.

It was reported that air defense systems intercepted or shot down drones across a total of 16 administrative regions, including the Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Leningrad, Novgorod, Oryol, Rostov, Tula, and Moscow regions.

Due to the threat of aerial attacks, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) imposed temporary restrictions on the operations of Moscow’s Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports, as well as airports in the cities of Kaluga, Saratov, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl, and Pskov, starting from the evening of June 2.

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Russia moves to privatize major oil port operator amid widening budget deficit

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Russia is preparing to privatize the state’s stake in Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NMTP), one of the country’s largest port operators, as the government seeks to finance a widening federal budget deficit. Russia’s federal budget shortfall reached nearly 6 trillion rubles in the January-April period.

After Rosimushchestvo on Friday announced plans to sell the state’s stake in Aeroflot, a 20% government holding in NMTP was also added to the privatization program. According to Interfax, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the relevant decree on May 23.

The entire state stake in the holding company is expected to be offered for sale during the 2026-2028 period. NMTP includes two major oil ports that together handle roughly half of Russia’s oil exports.

One of them is the Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea, with a capacity of around 500,000 barrels per day. The other is the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea coast, with a capacity of approximately 1 million barrels per day.

The holding also includes the Baltiysk port in the Kaliningrad region. Last year, the company generated revenue of 76.5 billion rubles and net profit of 40.6 billion rubles.

State-owned pipeline operator Transneft is NMTP’s largest shareholder, holding a 60% stake.

Transneft acquired the shares in 2018 after the previous shareholder, billionaire Ziyavudin Magomedov, was arrested on charges of creating an organized criminal group.

Magomedov was later sentenced to 19 years in prison in the same case. Around 20% of NMTP is held by private investors, including stock market participants.

According to Reuters estimates, the state could raise around 33 billion rubles from the sale of its NMTP stake. That would be slightly below the estimated 45 billion ruble valuation of the Aeroflot stake slated for privatization.

Potential buyers for the 20% state stake have not yet been identified, and no official information has been released. However, Freedom Finance Global analyst Natalya Milchakova said major investors could show interest in the asset.

“The asset could attract the attention of state-linked organizations ranging from commodity and transport-logistics companies to major financial institutions. Players with more limited financial resources would neither be able to acquire the NMTP shares in question nor become strategic investors in this sector,” Milchakova said.

Revenue generated from the privatization will be transferred to the federal budget. The Russian government drafted this year’s budget with a projected deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles.

However, by the end of April, the actual budget deficit had exceeded the annual target by more than 1.5 times.

Economist Dmitry Polevoy previously said the budget could lose between 300 billion and 700 billion rubles in revenue this year because of lower economic growth forecasts.

According to Polevoy’s calculations, undercollection of non-oil budget revenues could rise to between 1.3 trillion and 1.8 trillion rubles next year.

Polevoy said that unless current conditions change, the government would be forced either to cut spending or seek additional revenue sources of a similar scale.

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Iran and Russia reaffirm strategic alliance following high-level talks in St. Petersburg

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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, following high-level meetings in Moscow and St. Petersburg, stated that recent regional developments have once again demonstrated the depth and strength of the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia.

The Iranian minister met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in St. Petersburg on Monday.

During the meeting, Putin described the Iranian people’s struggle to preserve their sovereignty as “brave and heroic.” Putin further expressed his hope for the restoration of peace and stated that Russia would take the necessary steps to protect the interests of both Iran and regional states while contributing to the establishment of stability in the area.

Araghchi noted that Tehran appreciates the support provided by the Moscow administration during the period of US and Israeli attacks against Iran.

Emphasizing that relations between Iran and Russia will continue to strengthen on the basis of a strategic partnership, Araghchi criticized the silence of certain countries in the face of violations and pressure exerted by the US. He warned that this application of double standards would negatively impact the entire international community.

Addressing mediation efforts led by Pakistan, Araghchi said that the Washington administration’s unreasonable demands, shifting positions, use of threatening language, and frequent violations of its commitments remain the primary obstacles to diplomatic processes.

In an additional statement shared via his social media accounts, Araghchi expressed satisfaction with the “highest-level” talks held in Russia at a time when West Asia is undergoing a transformation driven by the policies of Israel and its Western supporters. Araghchi reiterated his gratification regarding Russia’s solidarity and its support for diplomacy, noting that bilateral relations will continue to evolve.

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov also stated that mutual support between Moscow and Tehran would continue in the face of the aggressive stance displayed by the US toward Iran.

According to the TASS news agency, Belousov met with Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, where he emphasized that Russia would maintain its support for Iran regardless of evolving conditions. Belousov noted that Russia supports Iranian sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that Moscow favors a resolution of the crisis through diplomatic channels exclusively and is prepared to do everything within its power to facilitate such a solution.

Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik expressed satisfaction with Moscow’s support for Tehran in international forums and its commitment to enhancing defense cooperation.

These meetings took place against a backdrop of a continuing US blockade of Iranian ports and vessels. The Tehran administration characterizes this blockade as part of US aggression and a violation of ceasefire conditions.

The Iranian side has announced that it will not enter into a new negotiation process with Washington unless the current blockade is lifted. According to leaked information, Tehran is proposing a three-stage plan for potential talks with the US.

In the first stage of this formula, Iran demands an end to the war and guarantees that attacks against Iran and Lebanon will not be repeated. The second stage envisions the management of the Strait of Hormuz being handled in coordination with Oman, while the nuclear file is intended to be brought to the agenda only after these two stages have been completed.

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