Diplomacy
China’s tariff cuts for Africa boost trade and support wider yuan adoption
China’s decision to eliminate tariffs on imports from most African countries, combined with rapidly expanding trade flows, appears set to boost the use of the yuan across the continent, supporting Beijing’s broader objective of building alternatives to the Western financial system.
Customs data show that China-Africa trade grew by approximately 18% last year. The removal of tariffs on imports from 53 African countries in May is expected to further increase trade flows and encourage payments denominated in yuan.
Research by the International Monetary Fund indicates that yuan usage tends to rise alongside growing trade ties with China. On Wednesday, Beijing announced new measures aimed at promoting the global use of its currency.
From Nigerian cattle bone pellets and Kenyan avocado oil to South African apples, Chinese ports are receiving greater volumes of African cargo following the tariff cuts. The trend is increasing demand for payments and currency exchanges between the yuan and local African currencies.
Although reliable data on yuan usage in Africa remain limited, adoption is being supported by expanding trade with China, new payment platforms and efforts by some countries to shift debt obligations into lower-cost currencies.
Birju Sanghrajka, chief executive of Standard Chartered Kenya, said yuan transactions were increasing but added that there were still few signs that the currency was displacing the dollar.
“We see it as complementary,” Sanghrajka said.
South Africa-based Standard Bank became the first African commercial bank to connect to China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) in November and processed $500 million in transactions during its first four months on the network.
“The transactions we have seen were mainly driven by import and export activities between China and Africa,” said Ives Yang, head of transaction banking sales at Standard Bank CIB.
“We are working to expand CIPS to more countries,” he added.
Beijing says the tariff exemptions are intended to support African exports.
“In an environment where unilateralism and protectionism are creating difficulties and challenges for African countries, China is leveraging the advantages of its enormous market,” Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman He Yadong said.
Trade flow perspective
Bankers say the shift toward the yuan reflects growing trade volumes rather than a direct challenge to the dominance of the US dollar.
Standard Chartered Kenya has begun issuing yuan-denominated letters of credit. According to Sanghrajka, this allows Kenyan clients to obtain discounts by avoiding conversion costs associated with the dollar.
China and several other countries, including Russia, have promoted payment channels that bypass the dollar. The trend has drawn warnings from US President Donald Trump against abandoning the US currency.
“Part of what we are seeing globally today concerns how the dominance of the dollar can be reduced,” said Muda Yusuf, chief executive of Nigeria’s Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, adding that China is actively promoting yuan-based payment systems.
“When you export to them, you receive your payment in yuan,” Yusuf said.
Reducing foreign exchange risk
According to the African Export-Import Bank, which signed an agreement last year to connect to CIPS, China now accounts for 20% of Africa’s external trade, up from 5% two decades ago.
Other institutions are also seeking to capitalize on the trend.
Togo-based Ecobank, which operates in 34 African countries, and the Bank of China are working to launch a payment product this year that will facilitate transactions between the yuan and local African currencies.
“China is building its own payment and settlement rails that can make transactions almost instantaneous,” said Ecobank Chief Executive Jeremy Awori.
The development is welcome news for investors such as Qu Ming, a Chinese national who owns Kenya-based Sanmark Limited. Moving from dollar-denominated transactions to yuan payments could benefit the avocado oil producer, which employs 50 people.
“This will help us because of the exchange rate,” Qu said, adding that borrowing costs could also decline because yuan interest rates are lower.
China’s position as the largest bilateral creditor to countries including Senegal, Ethiopia and Kenya is also contributing to wider yuan adoption across Africa.
Last year, Kenya converted three Chinese-financed railway construction loans from dollars into yuan, reducing annual interest costs by approximately $215 million. Zambia has announced that from late 2025 it will begin accepting mining royalties and taxes from Chinese companies in yuan to strengthen its reserves and help service debt owed to China.
Avocado exports to China
According to Chinese government officials, the country’s yuan-denominated imports and exports rose 14% year-on-year in April to 4.38 trillion yuan ($647 billion). However, authorities did not provide a separate figure for Africa.
The trend is also visible in Kenya. Avocado exports to China’s vast consumer market have increased from 10 to 20 containers per week in 2022 to around 200 containers today. Volumes are expected to reach 1,000 containers by 2030, putting China on par with Europe, which has long been Kenya’s largest export market.
Speaking at a packing facility just outside Nairobi, Sunripe Managing Director Thiku Shah said China could surpass Europe between 2030 and 2035. He also said a shift by Kenya toward yuan-denominated financing could accelerate the currency’s use in trade.
“If we can invoice in yuan, if banks can accept payment in yuan, and if we can find a buyer for the yuan we hold, that would be perfect,” Shah said.
Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
Diplomacy
Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.
“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”
In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.
According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.
The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.
Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.
Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.
“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”
Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.
Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.
These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.
Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.
In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.
Diplomacy
IMF warns global economy is nearing the limits of its resilience
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy’s capacity to withstand fresh shocks is coming under strain.
Worldwide growth has exceeded expectations and maintained stability despite the war in the Middle East and surging oil prices.
However, some policymakers worry that dwindling energy reserves, rising debt burdens, and a growing reliance on the artificial intelligence boom will leave the world increasingly vulnerable.
In a blog post, IMF economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro wrote: “Without strengthening supply capacity and rebuilding policy buffers, the global economy may soon test the limits of its resilience.”
Tenreyro added:
“While tech-related investments are an important advantage against the energy shock, they concentrate risks, making global growth excessively dependent on a small number of companies, sectors, and economies.”
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has helped offset the economic fallout of the war.
Yet a sharp reversal could leave global GDP 1.1% below the IMF’s baseline forecast by 2028.
US GDP could take an even larger hit of 1.8%.
This scenario assumes that the productivity gains promised by AI fail to materialise, triggering a pullback in investment and a correction in financial markets.
Continued investment in artificial intelligence could also fuel inflation, leading to renewed interest rate increases.
Conversely, a stronger AI investment boom coupled with faster productivity gains could lift global GDP 0.6% above the baseline forecast by 2029.
The IMF largely maintained its global growth projections despite prolonged energy disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.
However, it now expects higher inflation both this year and next year.
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast, and anticipates 3.4% in 2027, representing a 0.2 percentage point upward revision.
The fund projects that the US economy will expand by 2.3% in both years, marking the fastest growth among G7 economies. The 2027 forecast was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.
Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.
Driven by the adverse impact of surging energy and food prices, both inflation projections were revised upwards compared with April.
The world had managed the energy shock partly by drawing down oil reserves and rerouting supply sources.
According to the IMF, global oil inventories are declining by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, elevating the risk of a sharp price spike.
These projections provide the backdrop for global finance officials and central bankers gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
The IMF underestimated global growth projections for three consecutive years, raising questions over whether economies have become better at weathering shocks.
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