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China tests first intercontinental ballistic missile in 44 years

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China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday for the first time in 44 years, in a show of force that raised concerns among the United States and its allies.

The test, Beijing’s first major missile launch since its two hypersonic weapons tests in the summer of 2021, came as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted intensive air and naval exercises in the region and ahead of a meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden expected in the coming weeks.

China’s defence ministry said the ICBM carrying a dummy warhead was launched into international waters at 8.44am, adding that it was a ‘routine adjustment in our annual training plan’ in accordance with international law and was not aimed at any country or target.

However, the West has interpreted the launch as a political message and it is thought that it could raise concerns in the US that Beijing is modernising its nuclear weapons.

According to analysts, China has signalled that it has the capability to strike US territory with nuclear weapons. Notably, this show of force coincided with the Xi-Biden meeting.

In July 2021, the PLA launched a missile using a ‘fractional orbit bombardment’ system to propel a nuclear-capable ‘hypersonic glide vehicle’ around the Earth for the first time. It conducted a second hypersonic test the following month.

Analysts say the Rocket Force, the PLA’s conventional and nuclear missile arm, has used ranges in Xinjiang or the Bohai Sea as the target area for almost all its tests. The last time an ICBM was launched from a range other than these two was in 1980.

Beijing did not specify which missile it tested on Wednesday or where it was launched. But four security officials in Asia said the launch came from Hainan in southern China and was judged to be a land-based ICBM like the Dongfeng-41.

It does not appear to have been launched from a [Rocket Power] base or the Wenchang Space Launch Centre. It was most likely launched from a coastal area,’ Duan Dang, a Vietnam-based maritime security analyst, told the Financial Times.

Two senior Japanese officials said the ICBM did not fly over Japanese territory. But this launch, along with their recent attacks on our territory with military aircraft and ships, is seen as a serious provocation to the stability of this region,’ one of the officials said.

China could catch up with the US in nuclear weapons by 2030

China, which in the past had few nuclear warheads to retaliate against an enemy nuclear attack, is now rapidly expanding its arsenal of warheads and missile launchers.

According to US defence experts, this build-up could put China on a par with the world’s two leading nuclear powers, the United States and Russia, by the early 2030s.

This has sparked a debate in Washington about whether and how the United States should expand and adjust its own nuclear capabilities and posture.

According to the Japanese military, another PLA Navy fleet entered the Sea of Okhotsk on Monday, while Chinese and Russian naval vessels conducted joint training near Japan.

Experts say that by conducting the ICBM test at the same time as other exercises, the PLA is trying to demonstrate its capabilities across the board.

ASIA

Who was Hassan Nasrallah?

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Hassan Nasrallah, a Shiite cleric and leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, was one of the most well-known and influential political-military figures in the Middle East region.

Hassan Nasrallah had not been seen in public for years due to the fear of being assassinated by Israel. On Saturday, the Israeli army announced that they had killed Nasrallah in an attack on Beirut, the capital of Lebanon.

The Hezbollah group did not comment on this for several hours; But after the morning of Saturday, they confirmed that he was killed. Nasrallah had close personal relations with Iran and had played a key role in transforming Hezbollah into a political and military force today.

He still had special respect among the supporters of the group. Under Nasrallah’s leadership, the Hezbollah group cooperated in training Hamas fighters as well as militias in Iraq and Yemen.

This group also facilitated the transfer of missiles and rockets from Iran to be used against Israel to the Hamas group.

Nasrallah transformed the Hezbollah group from a militia group to a military force

Nasrallah transformed the Hezbollah group from a militia group established to fight the Israeli forces in Lebanon, to a military force that is stronger than the Lebanese army and more powerful in the country’s politics.

Born in 1960, Hassan Nasrallah grew up in the Hammoud East Tower area in Beirut. His father Abdul Karim owned a small vegetable shop in this area. He was the eldest of nine children in this family. After the start of the Lebanese civil war in 1975, he joined the Amal movement, which was a Shiite militia group at the time.

After a short period in the Iraqi city of Najaf to study at a Shia seminary, he rejoined Amal in Lebanon; But he left this group in 1982, sometime after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

The Amal group, which was created by Moussa al-Sadr, had significant military support from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

In 1985, Hezbollah officially announced its presence by publishing an “open letter”. In this letter, Hezbollah identified America and the Soviet Union as the main enemies of Islam and demanded the “destruction” of Israel.

With the expansion of the Hezbollah group in various positions, Hassan Nasrallah finally became the leader of Hezbollah in 1992 

With the expansion of the Hezbollah group in various positions, Hassan Nasrallah finally became the leader of Hezbollah in 1992 at the age of 32 after the assassination of Abbas al-Mousavi in an Israeli airstrike.

One of his first actions was to avenge Mousavi’s murder. Nasrallah ordered the launch of rocket attacks on northern Israel, which resulted in the death of a girl. An Israeli security officer at the Israeli embassy in Turkey was also killed by a car bomb explosion. As a result of another suicide attack on the Israeli embassy in Argentina, at least 29 people were killed.

Hassan Nasrallah also managed a battle with Israeli forces that ended with their withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.

Hassan Nasrallah said that Hezbollah will not be disarmed and stressed: “All Lebanese lands must be recaptured.” In 2006, Hezbollah forces carried out a border attack in which eight Israeli soldiers were killed. Two other soldiers were taken hostage by Hezbollah forces. In response to this action by Hezbollah, Israeli warplanes bombarded Hezbollah positions in the south and southern suburbs of Beirut.

Hezbollah also fired about 4,000 rockets at Israel. In this conflict, more than 1,115 Lebanese citizens, most of whom were civilians, had lost their lives. Also, 119 Israeli soldiers and 45 civilians were killed.

Nasrallah’s house and offices were targeted by Israeli airstrikes several times. But he survived. In 2009, Hassan Nasrallah initiated a new political process that sought to highlight Hezbollah’s “political vision”.

Four years later, he announced that Hezbollah had entered a “whole new phase” by sending fighters to Syria to help its ally Iran.

However, Sunni Lebanese leaders have accused Hezbollah of dragging the country into the Syrian war, and sectarian tensions have worsened. On October 8, 2023, a day after Hamas attacked Israel, which led to the war in Gaza, previously sporadic clashes between Hezbollah and Israel escalated.

Amal movement described Hezbollah leader as “a unique and courageous figure”

In his last speech, Hassan Nasrallah accused Israel of blowing up thousands of pagers and radio devices used by members of the group under his command. These explosions killed 39 people and injured thousands more. The leader of Hezbollah warned that he will take revenge on Israel for these attacks.

However, sometime later, Israel greatly increased its attacks on Hezbollah and nearly 800 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon.

Finally, today, the Israeli army announced that it had killed Hassan Nasrallah in its new air attacks on Beirut — the attack against the Lebanese Hezbollah in the last few years of this country is considered unprecedented.

Lebanon’s Amal Movement, Hezbollah’s political ally in a statement described the Hezbollah leader as “a unique and courageous figure”. His death would not weaken the resolve of the resistance fighters, the statement said, referring to the death of Nasrullah.

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ASIA

Japanese warship transits Taiwan Strait for first time, Beijing reacts

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A Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force ship transited the Taiwan Strait for the first time on Wednesday, Japanese media reported.

The Japanese destroyer Sazanami, along with ships from the Australian and New Zealand navies, ‘transited’ the narrow waterway between mainland China and the island of Taiwan, Kyodo news agency said.

The ships are believed to have been in the South China Sea for exercises, Kyodo reported.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) followed and monitored them throughout the process, and the situation was under control,’ the Chinese newspaper Global Times reported, citing unnamed sources.

China warned on Thursday that it was ‘extremely vigilant’ and had complained to Japan after the latter said it had sent a ship into the Taiwan Strait.

When a Japanese self-defence force ship entered the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese military … handled the matter in accordance with the law,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said, adding that ‘China is extremely vigilant about the political intentions of Japan’s actions’.

The crossing came about a week after Tokyo protested to Beijing over the new route taken by the PLA Navy’s Liaoning aircraft carrier and two destroyers on their way to the Pacific.

The Liaoning and two Type 052D guided missile destroyers sailed through the East China Sea towards Japan’s adjacent territories, passing between the islands of Yonaguni and Iriomote.

A month ago, amid escalating regional tensions, Japan announced that a Chinese military aircraft had entered its airspace and that Japanese warplanes had responded.

Relations between the two Asian powers have become even more problematic as Tokyo’s geopolitical and military alignment with the United States has deepened.

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ASIA

China’s central bank cuts benchmark rate, announces new stimulus measures

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China has announced a series of stimulus measures, including a cut in its benchmark interest rate, as it grapples with a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

In a public briefing on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China also announced more support for the struggling property sector, as well as a state fund to revive the stock market and help with share buybacks.

While economists were sceptical that China could meet its full-year growth target of 5%, Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said the measures were aimed at ‘supporting the steady growth of China’s economy’ and ‘promoting a moderate price recovery’.

China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index, which tracks shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose 3.8 per cent on Tuesday after the announcement. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 3.9 per cent, led by mainland Chinese companies listed in the region.

Pan said the central bank’s main policy rate, the short-term seven-day reverse repurchase rate, would be cut to 1.5 per cent from 1.7 per cent.

“The central bank will also cut the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of reserves lenders must hold, by 0.5 percentage points, signalling a possible further cut of 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points this year. The RRR cut will provide Rmb1 trillion ($142 billion) of liquidity to the banking system”, he said.

“The rare simultaneous cut in policy rates and the RRR, the relative size of the cuts, and the unusual guidance on further policy easing all point to policymakers’ growing concern about headwinds to growth,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note to clients. “In our view, this signals a new round of policy easing to support the real economy,” he said.

“However, further demand easing – especially fiscal easing – is likely to be needed to improve China’s growth outlook,” they added.

China’s economic growth has slowed in recent months as a prolonged downturn in the property sector has weakened consumer sentiment and reduced spending.

Economists have cut growth forecasts below the government’s official target of 5 per cent by 2024 as deflationary forces persist and producer prices have fallen since last year.

Policymakers have turned to exports in the hope that the housing crisis will bottom out, but strong shipments of electric vehicles, batteries and other goods have failed to fully offset the weak domestic economy.

“China’s economy is recovering, and the monetary policy our bank has introduced this time will help support the real economy, stimulate spending and investment, while providing a stable floor for the exchange rate,” Pan said.

Pan was joined by Li Yunze, director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the new financial sector watchdog, and Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the market regulator.

The government will boost stock market liquidity by allowing brokers, insurance companies and funds to use central bank facilities to buy shares, officials said. The People’s Bank of China will also provide credit facilities for shareholders to buy back shares.

“A new stimulus is definitely positive,” said Liu Chang, macro economist at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

But with economic momentum weak heading into the fourth quarter, he said the authorities would have to ‘move very quickly to implement additional measures in the coming weeks if they want to achieve the 5 per cent target’.

In this context, we think there is still a worrying lack of urgency behind their words on stimulus,” Liu said.

Among other measures, the bank reduced mortgage down payments for second homes from 25 per cent to 15 per cent. Second homes had previously been subject to stricter conditions to curb property speculation, a focus of President Xi Jinping.

The central bank also said it would improve conditions for its destocking programme, under which it is providing Rmb300 billion to local state-owned enterprises to help them buy unsold inventory from property developers.

Economists say reducing China’s unsold housing stock is crucial to restoring confidence in the economy and boosting domestic consumption.

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