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What does Iran wants from the Taliban?

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The Islamic Republic of Iran is one of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, which shares a common language, culture and religion with the people of Afghanistan. Iran, especially after the “Islamic Revolution” in that country, has had close relations with the governments and people of Afghanistan. But in most cases, Tehran has intervened in Afghanistan’s internal affairs to secure his own interests.

Iran’s government, which is more ideological, has always been afraid of the functioning of democratic governments based on modern values ​​in Afghanistan. With the coming to power of the People’s Democratic Party, which had the support of the former Soviet Union, the Islamic Revolution took place in Iran under the leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and the “monarchy regime” fell. Iran’s Mullahs’ government was worried about the implementation of such a regime in Afghanistan.

Although the Democratic Party of Afghanistan was also a regime with leftist ideas and influenced by “communism”, it was not like Iran. This issue forced Iran to start supporting Shiite Islamist groups to create obstacles for the current government of Afghanistan.

Of course, he also achieved some successes in this regard. The groups that had the support of the Iranian government played a large role in the civil wars. But despite the new order in Afghanistan and the presence of NATO forces led by the United States of America, Iran did not play a significant role in Afghanistan’s internal relations.

At first, Iran tried to raise its position in Afghan relations by financially supporting the office of the previous president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai. However, the US played a key role in major national decisions and Iran’s efforts failed. Iran changed its approach and returned to the trick of the seventies and provided financial and arms support to the Taliban group against the Afghan government and American forces. In some cases, it also provided shelter for Taliban leaders.

Although the Taliban and Iran did not have a good relationship after the killing of the diplomats of this country in Mazar-e-Sharif by the Taliban, but with regard to the “enemy of an enemy is a friend” category, Iran established relations with the Taliban to secure its interests and supported them in this way.

Iran lobbied for the Taliban group and dragged Russia’s foot into the issue in order to be able to ground the US in Afghanistan. The government of Iran, with the support of the Taliban, was hindering the progress in dam construction and containment of Afghanistan’s waters.

After the Taliban came to power

With the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2014, Iran has openly supported the Taliban. With the signing of the Doha agreement between the Taliban and the United States, Iran increased its support to the Taliban against the forces of the previous Afghan government. But the question that arises is what did Iran want from the Taliban and what does it still want?

Although the main reasons why Iran supported the Taliban have not been made public, it is most likely that Iran supports the Taliban for several reasons and wants to be closer to them;

Lack of water: Iran is currently facing a shortage of water resources. If the dam construction project expands on the waters that flow to Iran, the problem of water shortage in the neighboring provinces of Afghanistan will double, which is a big challenge for the government of that country. Although the Taliban have stated from time to time that they control the waters of Afghanistan, in practice they have left a lot of water for Iran.

Expansion of ISIS activities: Iran is worried about the expansion of Islamic State (IS) militants in Iran due to its common land border with Afghanistan. The IS group, whose scope of activities has expanded from Iraq and the Middle East to some parts of Afghanistan, has deep opposition to the Shiites Muslims and Iran government is mostly controlled by the Shittes. Therefore, the only suitable option to prevent IS from entering Iran is the Taliban.

Drug trafficking: Afghanistan has played a major role in the production of drugs in the world and in the region. With the return to power of the Taliban regime, the production and smuggling of drugs to neighboring countries has increased. Iran is worried about drug production and smuggling to that country. Proximity to the Taliban is a mechanism used by Iran to smuggle drugs.

Durability of the Taliban government: Currently, the strengthening and stability of the Taliban government is in the interest of Iran. Because the level of dissatisfaction with Iran’s government has increased within that country, and any development along with human freedoms in Afghanistan will increase the concerns of Iran’s government. On the other hand, Iran and the Taliban, two ideological systems, Sunni and Shia, seek their survival in close relations.

Finally, Iran wants the Taliban to support its interests in Afghanistan as a proxy group. The Iranian government knows very well that it has no way out without having relations with the Taliban group.

In order to have support at the regional level and not be marginalized, the Taliban prefer to maintain relations with Iran. In order to expand its relations with the Taliban, and especially with Donald Trump’s inauguration as United States president, Iran sent its foreign minister to the Taliban so that the Taliban would stand by Iran in future events that will take place between the United States and Iran. Even though the Taliban do not have such ability, for Iran, even the weakest friend is better than none at the moment.

ASIA

BYD sales surge 29% on robust hybrid demand in China

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Chinese electric vehicle champion BYD exceeded expectations with a 29% increase in full-year sales, driven by strong demand for plug-in hybrids in its domestic market.

The group’s revenue reached Rmb 777 billion ($107 billion), crossing the $100 billion threshold for the first time. Growing exports also contributed to the sales figures.

Net income rose by 34% to Rmb 40 billion, largely in line with analysts’ estimates of $5.5 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey.

With overseas sales exceeding 400,000 vehicles last year, the Chinese company recently raised approximately $6 billion to finance its expansion plans, setting its sights on further overseas growth.

BYD, which accounted for approximately 16% of cars exported from China in January and February, is building factories in Europe and South America.

The strong figures followed founder Wang Chuanfu’s introduction last week of a new battery charging system that will allow customers to charge electric vehicles in five minutes.

Since the beginning of the year, the Shenzhen-based company has introduced a range of EV technologies, including an advanced driving system called God’s Eye, to make its model lineup more attractive.

BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares closed up 3% on Monday. The shares have risen more than 50% this year, in stark contrast to Tesla’s 34% decline.

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Sadiq Khan’s prompt trip to Kabul; Pakistan is really sidelined on Afghan front 

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Pakistan’s special envoy to Afghanistan Muhammad Sadiq Khan’s prompt or in “hurry” trip to Kabul could be seen as an act for “immediate” response to US acts ignoring Pakistan in recent developments of establishing direct links with Taliban governing Kabul for the second term since August 15 2021. Prior to Sadiq Khan’s comprehensive trip to Kabul, high powered US officials have made the first ever formal trip to Kabul and held detailed talks with Afghanistan’s foreign minister.

Ironically, both the developments took place soon after high power discussion on National Security issues in parliament, whereas apparently Prime Minister Shehaz Sharif was the most important figure but internally the whole session was dominated by Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Gen. Asim Muneer. First with help from its most trustworthy Qatar, a US team headed by Ambassador Adam Boehlar visited Kabul and got the release and air lifting of George Glezmann, an American airline mechanic to the United States via Qatar Doha. And on the next day, Sadiq Khan, considered most effective and popular in Afghanistan, landed in Kabul for a three day visit.

Though no further details of Sadiq Khan’s engagements in to Kabul is ascertained but a brief statement, is appearing in Rawalpindi-Islamabad controlled media which states, “Pakis­tan and Afghanistan on Saturday vowed to sustain their diplomatic engagement to address ongoing bilateral challenges, including trade, security and the status of Afghan refugees in Pakistan.” Through such statements, Pakistani officials confirmed only Ambassador Muhammad Sadiq’s meeting with Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister, Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi.

Is there any discussion over the prolonged controversial issue of Durand Line

No one can deny the fact that since the return of Taliban into power in mid of August 2021, Pakistan is a head with a stock of confusions. On one hand like of Mullah Muhammad Omar Akhund, his successor Mullah Haibatullah is reluctant to change mind on prolonged controversial issue of Durand Line and on the other the policy makers in Rawalpindi-Islamabad corridors are going towards isolation as the major global players like US, China, Russian Federation and even European Community succeeded in establishing direct links with Kabul. Pakistan is no longer dependent on the global community in handling issues and matters with Kabul.

Soon after his first ever trip to Kabul after August 15th 2021, former US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad who was part of Ambassador Adam Boehlar has criticized the Pakistan Army. Through this latest statement, Khalilzad cautioned Pakistan’s government and military, emphasizing that time is running out to prevent further turmoil. It is his second criticism against Pakistan after May 9th 2023 whereas he had backed the deposed Prime Minister. Now the situation is very clear as Zalmay Khalilzad’s status in US society especially in the ruling Republic is very clear. Almost all Afghans, especially his (Khalilzad) long time friends and familiars are now very clear about his next assignments or agenda.

Another stressful issue is the Torkham crossing for trade in Central and South Asian countries

Besides soon after US team’s trip to Kabul, Pakistan has not only ordered reopening of Torkham border, considered most important corridor between the two neighbouring countries but Sadiq Khan in Kabul and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Faisal Karim Kundi in Peshawar received joint delegations of traders involved in bilateral trade. A report from Kabul revealed, “officials of the Chamber of Commerce and Investment have met with Pakistan’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan Muhammad Sadiq and Obaidur Rahman Nizamani, the head of the Embassy of the country in Kabul and discussed bilateral trade relations and the problems in this area. According to the Chamber of Commerce and Investment Newsletter, Muhammad Younis Momand, Deputy Chief of the Chamber, stressed the importance of the Torkham route for trade in Central and South Asia, which route can connect with other countries in the region like Afghanistan and Pakistan. They have created an increase in grants and by the way, the lockdown can also cause a big loss to the economy of both countries.”

On certain issues, especially Afghans maltreatment, frequent closure of Torkham, imposition of taxes on transit and bilateral trade. Controversial Durand Line and others, Islamabad and Kabul are at loggerhead with each other. 

Though nothing in detail regarding Pakistan’s stance on the issue of terror during his talks with Foreign Minister Mutaqqi appeared in media but Governor Faisal Karim Kundi in his chat with traders repeated, “terrorists are incurring from Afghanistan into Pakistan. 

Afghanistan not only explored alternate trade routes but its sitting rulers made more friends and sympathizers like the US, China and Russian 

Compared to other civil-military officials, Sadiq Khan has long had a realistic approach towards issues with Afghanistan. He believes in talks and dialogues. Unfortunately, high ups occupying important offices in the Rawalpindi-Islamabad corridor are stuck to British colonial rulers’ inherited expansionism based policies towards Afghanistan. Unless and until honouring the importance of talks and consultations and remaining neutral in intra Afghan issues, it could be hard to earn the hearts of Afghans which is a must for tackling the situation that erupted with direct jumping of US and others in the region.

Compared to the past, the regional situation is different. Earlier Pakistan was dealing matters with Afghanistan like a landlocked and under developed country wholly solely depending on Karachi sea port. But now Afghanistan has not only explored alternate trade routes but its sitting rulers made more friends and sympathizers like the US, China and Russian Federation. After the empowerment of Donald Trump, now Washington is making ways and means for converting long time hostilities in friendship with Russia. Similarly growing influence of terror, especially presence of IS-Daesh militants in certain parts of the country, especially along the Pak Afghan border is also much more harmful to the very interests of Pakistan. Instead of remaining hostile to its failed “STRATEGIC Depth” policies inherited by successive military generals, Pakistan must follow the realist politico-diplomatic approaches towards Afghanistan and other neighboring countries.

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India shelves $23 billion plan to rival China’s factories

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According to four government officials, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has decided to suspend a $23 billion program aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing, just four years after launching an effort to lure companies away from China with US support.

Two of the officials, speaking to Reuters, said that the program would not be expanded beyond the 14 pilot sectors, and production timelines would not be extended, despite requests from some participating firms.

According to public records, approximately 750 companies, including Apple supplier Foxconn and Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries, enrolled in the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.

These firms were promised cash payments if they met individual production targets and deadlines. The goal was to increase manufacturing’s share of the economy to 25% by 2025.

However, according to government documents and correspondence reviewed by Reuters, many firms participating in the program failed to begin production, while others that met production targets found that India was slow to pay the subsidies.

According to an undated analysis of the program compiled by the trade ministry, as of October 2024, participating firms had produced $151.93 billion worth of goods under the program, or 37% of Delhi’s target. The document stated that India had disbursed only $1.73 billion in incentives, less than 8% of the allocated funds.

Reuters was the first to report the news of the government’s decision not to extend the plan and the details regarding the delays in payments.

Modi’s office and the trade ministry, which oversees the program, did not respond to requests for comment. Since the plan was implemented, the manufacturing industry’s share of the economy has decreased from 15.4% to 14.3%.

Foxconn and Reliance, which currently employ thousands of contract workers in India, did not return requests for comment.

Two government officials told Reuters that the termination of the program does not mean that Delhi has abandoned its manufacturing goals, and that alternatives are being planned.

The government had defended the program last year, particularly highlighting its impact on boosting pharmaceutical and mobile phone production. Approximately $620 million, or 94%, of the incentives paid between April and October 2024 were directed to these two sectors.

According to the analysis, some food sector companies that applied for subsidies were not granted incentives due to factors such as “non-compliance with investment thresholds” and the companies’ “failure to achieve the projected minimum growth.” While the document did not provide details, it noted that production in the sector had exceeded targets.

One Indian official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that excessive bureaucracy and bureaucratic caution continue to hinder the program’s effectiveness.

Another official said that India is considering supporting specific sectors by partially reimbursing investments made to establish facilities, allowing firms to recover their costs more quickly rather than waiting for production and sales.

Biswajit Dhar, a trade expert at the Council for Social Development, a Delhi-based think tank, said that the country may have missed an opportunity.

Dhar emphasized that the incentive program was “probably the last chance we had to revitalize our manufacturing sector.” He questioned, “If this kind of mega program fails, do you have any expectation that anything will succeed?”

The halt in production coincides with a period when India was trying to navigate the trade war initiated by US President Donald Trump, who criticized Delhi’s protectionist policies.

Dhar said that Trump’s threat of reciprocal tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US, such as India, meant that the export sector was becoming increasingly strained. “There was some tariff protection… and all of that will be cut.”

The program was initially launched with US support during a period when China, which has been the world’s factory base for decades, was struggling to maintain production due to its zero-COVID policy.

As the US seeks to reduce its economic dependence on an increasingly assertive Beijing, it has pushed many multinational companies to diversify their production lines and supply chains.

With its large young population, low costs, and a government considered relatively friendly to the West, India seemed poised to benefit from this situation.

In recent years, India has become a global leader in pharmaceutical and mobile phone production.

According to government data, the country produced $49 billion worth of mobile phones in the 2023-24 fiscal year, a 63% increase compared to 2020-21. Industry leaders like Apple, which started with low-cost models, now aim to produce their latest and most sophisticated mobile phones in India as well.

Similarly, pharmaceutical exports nearly doubled in the 2023-24 period compared to a decade earlier, reaching $27.85 billion.

However, this success has not been replicated in other sectors, including steel, textiles, and solar panel production. In many of these areas, India faces fierce competition from rivals like China. According to experts, India currently lacks sufficient systemic and technical infrastructure and trained manpower to carry out this production, and this process may take decades.

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