Europe
A right-wing alliance in the EU parliament and Germany appears increasingly likely
There are signs that cooperation between the majority “center-right” European People’s Party (EPP) and “far-right” groups in the European Parliament (EP) will intensify.
According to an analysis in German Foreign Policy, the reason for this was the failure of the EPP’s plan last week to weaken the Supply Chain Directive, likely due to members of the Social Democrat group.
At the EU summit, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared this “unacceptable,” stating, “This situation cannot continue.” EP President Roberta Metsola (EPP) later indicated that a new vote could be held with an alternative majority.
This points to the EP’s ability to secure a majority with groups further to the right, such as the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Patriots for Europe (PfE).
This move comes as calls for some form of cooperation with the AfD grow stronger within Germany’s ruling CDU party, and amid verbal attacks by Chancellor Friedrich Merz against immigrants who he claimed were spoiling the “cityscape.”
Meanwhile, the AfD parliamentary group in the Bundestag is also showing a willingness to compromise, speaking in favor of transatlantic cooperation with a Trump administration.
Merz clashes with social democrats in the EP
The starting point for the current debate on strengthening the right-wing majority in the EP was the parliament’s rejection last Wednesday of a significant weakening of the Supply Chain Directive.
According to the directive, it would only apply to companies with at least 5,000 employees and an annual turnover of at least 1.5 billion euros. This meant that only 10% of the companies initially affected by this directive would have to comply.
The parliamentary leadership had wanted to pass the watered-down version with the support of conservatives, liberals, and social democrats, but it ultimately failed because some deputies rejected the proposal in a secret ballot.
Conservative politicians, in particular, responded with harsh criticism of the social democrat group. For instance, Chancellor Friedrich Merz accused the EP of making a “fatal mistake,” called the vote result “unacceptable,” and added, “This situation cannot continue.”
This can be seen as proof of the real importance of the EP and its democratically made decisions: at Merz’s request, the vote will be repeated in November.
The right-wing “Venezuela majority” could become the norm
At the EU summit last Thursday, EP President Roberta Metsola, a member of the “center-right” EPP, stated that a secure majority to weaken the supply chain directive could only be achieved with a different party constellation.
This requires cooperation between the EPP, the national-conservative ECR, and the “far-right” PfE. The ECR is led by Giorgia Meloni’s party, the Brothers of Italy, while the PfE is led by the French National Rally (RN).
This combination of parties helped secure a majority for several parliamentary resolutions, including one in which the EP presumed to declare the EU and US-backed Machado the winner of the September 2024 Venezuelan parliamentary elections, which she had lost in July 2024.
Since then, the majority formed by the EPP, ECR, and PfE has been referred to by insiders as the “Venezuela majority.”
As Metsola explained, she received a clear “message” at the EU summit that she should seek a majority “wherever she can find it” to weaken the supply chain directive.
Metsola said she has an “institutional responsibility” to guarantee workable majorities in her office and that she will now do so.
Green light for decisions made with AfD votes
The EP’s increased openness to majorities that include the far-right is accompanied by a rapidly growing debate in the German Federal Parliament (Bundestag) about a similar opening.
Although the 2018 “incompatibility” resolution, which states that the CDU rejects “coalitions and similar forms of cooperation” with the AfD, is still in effect, calls to abandon this practice have recently been increasing.
For example, former CDU General Secretary Peter Tauber demanded that “decisions accepted by the AfD be allowed to pass” and said that the “Nazi club should not be wielded” when a decision is made with AfD votes.
Andreas Rödder, former chairman of the CDU’s Commission on Core Values, also declared his support for a “willingness for conditional dialogue” as long as the AfD respects “red lines” and “clearly distances itself from far-right positions and figures.”
Some leading CDU politicians in East Germany, such as Christian Hartmann, head of the Saxony CDU parliamentary group, advise forming their own positions “beyond all firewall debates.”
According to information from within the party, even at the federal level, “some Christian Democrats do not care much for the firewall.”
The German mainstream becomes “anti-immigrant”
Furthermore, it is suggested that Chancellor Friedrich Merz is pushing not only his party but also public debate in Germany to open up to the AfD’s “classic racist positions.”
On October 14, he said of immigrants, “this problem still exists in the cityscape,” and stated that plans for deportation “on a very large scale” were being made for this reason.
When asked on October 20 what he meant by this, he replied, “Ask your daughters what I mean by that.”
On October 22, following protests from business circles, the chancellor announced that he was excluding immigrants with the skills Germany needs from his condemnation, arguing that people of immigrant origin who are an indispensable part of the labor market are “no longer dispensable, regardless of where they come from or the color of their skin.”
In an interview published on October 19, Merz stated that he currently rejects any cooperation with the AfD, but that problems should not be avoided just because the AfD might then find them “acceptable.”
Referring to Bundestag majorities made possible with the AfD’s approval, Merz said, “The CDU must never fall into this dependency.”
AfD emphasizes cooperation with the US and NATO
If the CDU opens up to the AfD’s positions and public debates, the AfD is also ready to show that it can adapt on important issues and is capable of governing.
According to a report, the AfD parliamentary group has prepared motions it plans to submit to parliament calling for a “new beginning in German-American relations” based on the political positions of a Trump administration.
Partially departing from the AfD’s previous “pro-Russia” stance, the motions state that transatlantic relations are the “cornerstone of Germany’s security and prosperity” and that there is “currently no serious alternative” to integration into NATO.
Thus, the parliamentary group is removing a decisive obstacle to cooperation with the CDU and CSU: in May 2024, the current chairman of the CDU parliamentary group, Jens Spahn, redefined the “firewall,” stating that the EPP’s and therefore the CDU’s “potential partners” on the far-right must be “pro-European, pro-NATO, pro-rule of law, and pro-Ukraine.”
Beatrix von Storch, deputy chair of the AfD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, justifies her group’s transatlantic shift by referring to the domestic policy of a Trump administration.
Storch endorses Trump’s policy of cracking down on immigrants, leftists, and other critics while supporting far-right activists in the US, saying, “President Trump is working for the rebirth of the West.”
Europe
China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans
The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.
In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.
According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.
The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.
At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.
“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”
The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.
The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.
European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.
Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.
A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”
Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”
Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.
In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.
The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.
A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.
Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.
Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.
The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.
“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”
Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Shagina said:
“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”
In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.
Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.
“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.
Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.
A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”
“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.
Europe
Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain
European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.
The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.
Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.
The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.
Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.
Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”
The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.
Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.
In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.
The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.
Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”
Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.
Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”
The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.
For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.
The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.
Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.
The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.
Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.
The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.
Europe
SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine
SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.
In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:
“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”
In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.
The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.
SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”
When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.
Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.
Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.
At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”
The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.
A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.
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