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Britain boosts cooperation against EU

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On November 7, an interesting story was published in Politico. The headline was meaningful as well: ‘We were taken for fools’: MEPs fume at UK data protection snub. A European Parliament MP, French MEP Gwendoline Delbos-Corfield, described meetings with the U.K. government over their data protection reform plans as ‘appalling.’

The situation, the French official said, was truly dire: the UK Minister for Digital Affairs, Julia Lopez, quit the meeting halfway through, U.K. Home Office ministers did not deign to meet them, and instead of the chief of the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO), they met the acting director. As if that were not enough, the ICO officials whom they could meet seemed to know nothing about data protection, giving one-sentence answers to all the questions. When Britain was reforming the data protection law inherited from the EU, it was only about growth and innovation, human rights wasn’t even considered: “I never heard them say, protecting data is a fundamental right. Even in Hungary they say this,” Gwendoline Delbos-Corfield said.

British-Swiss cooperation against EU

The tension between Brussels and London is not limited to data protection alone. The crisis due to the UK’s participation in the European Union’s massive budgeted scientific fund programme Horizon (95.5 billion euros by 2027) has led to a significant alliance.

According to the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which was signed after Britain’s exit from the EU (“Brexit”), the United Kingdom would be able to become a partial member of the Horizon. But the dispute broke out when the European Commission refused to set a binding deadline for partial membership. This is said to be due to a complication with the Northern Ireland Protocol. According to the Horizon scheme, researchers from third countries can participate in Horizon programs, but generally cannot manage projects or access funds.

So, Britain began to implement Plan B. London, which has set out to sign its own bilateral agreements outside the EU mechanism, has managed to build a surprising bilateral collaboration with a non-EU European country.

Switzerland, which has dozens of bilateral deals with the EU, wanted to join Horizon, but has been blocked from joining the programme since it rejected the scientific cooperation agreement for being ‘overarching.’ Switzerland says joining Horizon is still a ‘priority’, but it seems the die is cast.

Another sign showing that it’s too little too late is hidden between the lines of British Science Minister George Freeman’s response to criticism that the agreement with Switzerland is no match for Horizon: “This Anglo-Swiss agreement is the first of a number I am negotiating. I was recently in Israel, which will follow next [deal].” Mr. Freeman also said that deepening relationships with research and development economies such as Switzerland is critical to becoming a science superpower.

On the other hand, the amount of funds to be allocated to the Anglo-Swiss partnership is still a mystery. According to a claim, the science community is vexed by the rumors that the Treasury Department could cut the £15bn (€17.2bn) that was reserved for Horizon, BBC reported. 

Northern Ireland tensions continue

The Northern Ireland Protocol was signed between Brussels and London during the Brexit negotiations. As per the protocol, there would be no need to check the goods to be transported across the Irish land border. As is known, Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom, while the Republic of Ireland is an independent country and still a part of EU.

Before Brexit, there was no problem in the trade of goods because both sides were subject to EU rules. After the UK left the EU, special trading agreements were needed since Northern Ireland has a land border with the Republic of Ireland. The EU has strict control mechanisms over certain goods from non-EU countries.

The protocol provides for EU inspections to be carried out between Northern Ireland and Great Britain (England, Wales, and Scotland), not on the land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. These inspections will take place at Northern Ireland ports and will continue to follow EU norms in Northern Ireland production standards.

So, the British government wants to change this protocol. According to London’s new plan, goods going from England, Wales and Scotland to Northern Ireland will be divided into two sectors. The first sector (“Green Lane”) will only cover goods going to Northern Ireland and there will be no checks here. This lane will be for ‘trusted traders.’ The second sector (“Red Lane”) will cover goods destined for the Republic of Ireland and the EU from England, Wales, and Scotland and these will undergo full checks.

In this case, taxation will have to change. Northern Ireland remains subject to EU rules on state aid and VAT, which include certain limitations. Britain also wants to remove these limitations. London also wants an independent body, not the European Court of Justice, to be responsible for resolving disputes over the protocol. The UK government is threatening to amend the protocol even if no agreement is reached with Brussels. The island country argues it could amend an international protocol, citing concerns it could undermine peace in Northern Ireland.

In June, the European Commission sought legal sanctions against the United Kingdom. The commission said it was not ready to renegotiate the protocol but has offered to work on its implementation. These include reducing customs and checks on goods, reducing the amount of paperwork, and relaxing regulations for chilled meats to be sent across the Irish Sea.

Since last October, technical negotiations on the Protocol have been conducted between the parties. London says it wants a negotiated solution but is also considering the option of taking a unilateral step if they fail to reach an agreement.

On the other hand, the United States made a statement that seems like a threat. According to The Telegraph, Washington piles pressure on Brussels to reach an agreement before Good Friday Agreement’s 25th anniversary. According to an EU diplomat, the U.S. has increased the pressure on the EU, but it also ‘encourages’ London. However, The Telegraph reported that Britain gets the lion’s share of the U.S. pressure. According to the paper, Joe Biden is not happy about Britain’s decision to amend the protocol on the grounds that it could undermine peace in Northern Ireland.

Britain-EU relations are at odds: We need WhatsApp diplomacy

But things don’t end here either. The UK Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick announced that Non-Irish EU citizens will have to present biometric data to enter the UK, including Northern Ireland.

Together with the law, which will enter into force next year, citizens of EU member states (excluding Irish) who are subject to Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) have to provide their fingerprints and facial biometrics.

London, on the other hand, appears to make fences with Paris, while looking daggers at Berlin. With the agreement on illegal migrant traffic in the English Channel, relations are accelerating. This is said to be influenced by the golden boys of the financial world being the heads of the two countries, as Rishi Sunak is the former executive of Goldman Sachs and Emmanuel Macron is the former executive of Rothschild. According to a French official speaking to the Financial Times, the two countries have now achieved a very positive dynamic. Lord Peter Ricketts, former British Ambassador to Paris, said relations have improved gradually since the summer.

From a Brussels’ point of view, the situation does not seem very promising. Another guest at the Financial Times was EU Ambassador to London João Vale de Almeida. Almeida’s complaint is hilarious as well as an indication of the extent to which relations with the UK have declined: “We’ve had more summits with China than we have had with the UK. There have been none. That’s not normal. These people need to share their WhatsApp numbers.”

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US officials’ visit to Greenland sparks controversy amid political tensions

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As negotiations to form a new government continue in Greenland, a Danish territory, following recent elections, senior officials from the Trump administration are scheduled to visit the island next week.

According to individuals familiar with the trip who spoke to the Financial Times (FT), US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Usha Vance (wife of Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance), and the Secretaries of Defense and Energy will be in Greenland from Thursday to Saturday for a “private visit.”

A source familiar with the visit confirmed that Waltz and Energy Secretary Chris Wright will tour the US military installation, Pituffik Space Base, in Greenland.

Danish and Greenlandic officials have indicated they are open to an increased US presence on the island but are not receptive to a takeover of the base.

The FT reported that the visit has caused consternation among Greenlandic and Danish officials. Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the leader of Demokraatit, which won this month’s elections, stated that the timing of the visit, amidst ongoing coalition negotiations and local elections, “once again shows a lack of respect for the people of Greenland.”

Greenland’s outgoing Prime Minister, Múte Egede, added that the visit “cannot in any way be described as a harmless visit by the wife of a politician” and that its “sole purpose is a show of force against us.”

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to acquire the Arctic island and has even considered the possibility of using military force to take it over from the NATO ally. Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr., also visited the island in January for a “private visit.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen responded to the new US visit, stating that it “cannot be seen independently of the public statements” made by Trump and other officials.

“As the Kingdom of Denmark, we want to cooperate with the Americans. But this must be a cooperation based on fundamental values such as sovereignty and respect between countries and peoples. We are serious about this issue,” Frederiksen said.

Trump and other US officials have hailed the results of the Greenlandic parliamentary elections, seemingly equating the voters’ preference for pro-independence parties with a desire for ‘Americanization.’ However, a recent poll showed that only 6% of Greenlanders want to join the US, while 85% are opposed.

All leaders of the current parties represented in the island’s parliament also condemned Trump’s behavior as “unacceptable.” Aaja Chemnitz, a Greenlandic member of the Danish parliament, told Danish television that the visit was an “untimely interference” in the island’s politics so soon after the elections.

“Anyone who tries to interfere but is not part of Greenlandic society should stay away. We are going through a particularly challenging period in Greenland’s history because we are very much affected by what is happening abroad,” Chemnitz said.

Martin Lidegaard, a former Danish minister and current opposition MP, said the visit crossed the acceptable line for both Denmark and Greenland.

“It will now be crucial for Denmark and Greenland to act together,” Lidegaard added.

Usha Vance’s office confirmed that she would be traveling with her son and a US delegation “to visit historical sites, learn about Greenlandic heritage, and attend Avannaata Qimussersu, Greenland’s national dog sled race.”

The organization behind the dog sled race told Greenlandic media that it had received a large but undisclosed sum of money from the US consulate in Nuuk, Greenland’s capital.

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Germany considers transferring Nord Stream 2 to US control

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In Germany, discussions are underway regarding the potential transfer of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to US control. The pipeline became unusable following sabotage in September 2022. The aim is to resume the flow of Russian gas to Europe.

According to a report by Bild newspaper, negotiations are ongoing to reach an agreement.

Meanwhile, some politicians from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, who was recently elected as prime minister, have suggested that natural gas imports from Russia could resume after the war in Ukraine ends.

CDU Member of Parliament Thomas Bareiss stated that Nord Stream 2 could be used for supplies, saying, “If peace is restored, relations normalize, and embargoes gradually ease, then, of course, gas could flow again, perhaps through a pipeline now under US control.”

Jan Heinisch, the deputy chairman of the CDU group in the North Rhine-Westphalia State Parliament, also stated that Germany should consider buying Russian gas again if a “fair and reliable” peace agreement is signed in Ukraine.

Heinisch added, “Whether this will be done by sea or via a pipeline remains to be seen.”

At the same time, Heinisch emphasized that Germany should not be dependent on a single supplier and should avoid situations where prices are “dictated.”

Heinisch is involved in developing the energy policy of the future ruling coalition consisting of the CDU, CSU, and SPD.

On the other hand, Free Democratic Party (FDP) Member of Parliament Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann claimed that the CDU is “already making efforts” to resume natural gas imports from Russia, undermining the country’s hard-won energy independence from Russia.

However, there are those within the CDU who do not want such cooperation to resume.

Party member Ruprecht Polenz said, “Vladimir Putin’s Russia can never be trusted again, and Donald Trump has shaken confidence in America. Therefore, the coalition agreement should rule out the reactivation of the Nord Stream pipeline.”

CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter also criticized this step.

Kiesewetter said, “Those who have always opposed sanctions, those who want Nord Stream to work again and want to pounce on cheap Russian gas again, those who do not care about the genocide suffered by the Ukrainian people, each of them would be extremely pleased with such a rapprochement.”

In addition, SPD Member of Parliament Michael Roth stated that Bareiss’s proposal was an inappropriate signal at the wrong time, coming from someone who had “obviously learned nothing from recent history.”

The German Ministry of Economy, led by Robert Habeck of the Green Party, stated that Nord Stream 2 has not been approved and has not received legal approval, and “there is no question of operating it at the moment.”

The party itself described Bareiss’s statement as “scandalous,” saying, “If Germany starts buying gas from Russia again, it would mean rewarding President Vladimir Putin for his war of aggression.”

Sources speaking to Bild newspaper previously reported that Richard Grenell, the former US Ambassador to Berlin and currently Trump’s special envoy, had traveled unofficially to Switzerland a number of times to discuss the commissioning of Nord Stream 2.

The headquarters of Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of the pipeline, is located in this country.

The sources claimed that the American side wanted to mediate the supply of Russian gas to Germany, but only at the level of private companies.

Prior to this, sources interviewed by the Financial Times had said that Matthias Warnig, the former CEO of Nord Stream 2 AG, was trying to reactivate Nord Stream 2 with the help of an American investor consortium that had drafted an agreement with Gazprom if sanctions were lifted.

A former senior US official familiar with the matter said, “The US will say, ‘Russia can be trusted now because there are reliable Americans involved.'”

The official added that if everything goes well, American investors will start making money “without doing anything.”

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Europe plans for US absence in NATO with 5-10 year strategy

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Europe’s major military powers are formulating plans to assume greater responsibility for the continent’s defense, reducing reliance on the United States.

According to a report in the Financial Times (FT), these discussions are driven by fears of a unilateral US withdrawal from NATO, exacerbated by repeated threats from former President Donald Trump to weaken or abandon the transatlantic alliance. The aim is to avoid the chaos that such a withdrawal could cause.

Four European officials familiar with the matter indicated that Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the Scandinavian countries are among those engaged in these informal discussions.

The FT reports that their objective is to devise a plan that shifts the financial and military burden towards European capitals. The intention is to present this plan to the US before NATO’s annual leaders’ summit in The Hague in June.

The proposal would include firm commitments from Europe to increase defense spending and enhance military capabilities, with the goal of persuading Trump to accept a gradual handover that would allow the US to focus more on Asia.

Since Trump’s election, countries such as Germany, France, and the UK have moved to increase defense spending or accelerate already planned increases. The EU has also launched initiatives to boost military investments among its member states.

Officials estimate that it would take approximately 5 to 10 years of increased spending to elevate Europe’s capabilities to a level where they could replace most US competencies, excluding US nuclear deterrence.

One source stated, “Increasing spending is our only leverage: burden-sharing and moving away from dependence on the US. We are beginning these discussions, but the task is so enormous that many are overwhelmed by its magnitude.”

While US diplomats have assured their European counterparts that Trump will remain committed to NATO membership and Article 5’s mutual defense clause, many European capitals worry that the White House might rapidly reduce troop or equipment deployments or withdraw from NATO’s joint missions.

Officials noted that some capitals are hesitant to participate in burden-sharing talks, fearing it might encourage the US to act more quickly, while others believe that despite Trump’s rhetoric, he does not intend to make significant changes to the US presence in Europe.

Others are skeptical that the Trump administration, given its unpredictable nature, would even agree to a structured process.

One official questioned, “You need an agreement with the Americans, and it’s not clear whether they will be willing to do that. Can you even trust that they would stick to an agreement?”

Officials highlight ongoing and regular discussions, led by France and Britain, about establishing a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine in its war against Russia and to invest in European defense.

These discussions among more than ten European defense powers do not include the US.

When asked what a European pillar within NATO would mean and whether it is feasible, a senior Western official responded, “We are seeing it now: the UK and France are taking the initiative [on a guarantee force for Ukraine] without the Americans.”

NATO officials argue that maintaining the alliance with less or no US involvement is much simpler than creating a new structure, given the difficulty of recreating or renegotiating the existing military plans, capability targets, rules, command structure, and Article 5 for the continent’s defense.

Officials stated that for Europe’s core defense, the UK and other Atlantic maritime powers, the Scandinavian countries for the north of the continent, and Türkiye for the southeast defense will always be needed.

Marion Messmer, a research fellow in international security at Chatham House, noted, “Even without the US, NATO provides a structure for security cooperation in Europe. There are aspects that would need to be replaced if the US were to leave. But it provides a framework and infrastructure that Europeans are really familiar with. It does so much of the work that you would have to do from scratch if you were just setting up a different type of structure for just European members.”

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