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China seeks $10b investment in lithium reserves in Afghanistan

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Afghanistan has been under occupation for the last 20 years, until the complete withdrawal on August 15, 2021. The US forces presence in Afghanistan marked the longest presence ever. There was no other country where the US had military presence for two decades. During the course of 20 years, and with the full engagement of the international community, nothing substantially changed in Afghanistan. There is quite evidence how it ended in war, but in the economic landscape it was also a failure.

The Afghans become poorer despite showering billions of dollars. It was expected there would be no poor community, or at least it would be at a lower point. However, this money did not really help; maybe this is because the US did not want that.

There were several indications that the US internally stopped running infrastructure projects. It has been said that former President Hamid Karzai told the US officials that they are working in five water dams to generate electricity. However, the appeal was rejected by the US side, and forced him to buy electricity from Central Asian states.

Afghanistan paid more money to transform electricity rather than investing in electricity dams, a permanent solution to the shortages of electricity.

This is just one example and there are many more of such. Meanwhile, the US was also not happy with investments made by other countries, especially from China and Russia. Despite that, China did not stop from investing in Afghanistan as well as providing scholarships for the Afghan students.

China investing $10b in Afghanistan

Afghanistan Ministry of Mines and Petroleum had said that Chinese Company “Gochin” is ready to invest $10 billion in Afghanistan’s lithium deposits, and the Taliban Acting Minister for Mine and Petroleum, Shahabuddin Delawar also met with the Chinese company representatives in Kabul, where they explored the project.

The Afghan ministry had expressed hope on the project, saying that the investment would create 120,000 direct jobs and indirectly to another million of Afghans.

The ministry also hinted that two Chinese companies are interested in repairing the Salang Pass within seven months. The companies also promised to carve another tunnel to make travel to the Afghans.

The company said that the lithium deposits will be getting done inside Afghanistan, and in order to go with the project, they also built a hydroelectric dam. Kumar and Laghman Road will also be asphalted to make the transportation easy.

At the start of the year, Afghanistan and China signed the extraction contract for the Amu oil field. The Chinese company named “China Petroleum Economics and Information Research Center (CPEIC) inked the agreement in which Afghanistan’s share is 20 percent at the moment.

This shows that China is more interested and already has increased its efforts to help Afghans via economic ties and it has been a great achievement if the Chinese company invests on estimated worth over $1 trillion lithium deposits.

Beefing up security

Reportedly, what has stopped the Chinese company from more investing in Afghanistan is the fragile security situation. With the return of the Taliban to power, it was hoped that there would be no security incidents; however, security incidents have been frequently the case.

Undoubtedly, China wants to invest more if the Taliban guarantee security for their workers and their assets. The Taliban had time and again assured to maintain security and firmly fight against terrorists. The Taliban spokesman had earlier said that China wants to invest in some sectors and currently they are in talk. Another project, “Mes Aynak” the country’s largest copper mine was also used to extract by the Chinese companies but due to security issues, the project did not end well. It has been reported that several elements in the past government had received money from foreigners to insecure the place of Aynak.

However, the current ruler of Afghanistan, Taliban, said they are fully ready to maintain security of the Chinese companies and workers.

Daesh is not a major threat

On the issue of Islamic State (IS), aka Daesh, the Taliban spokesman said that Daesh is not a major problem and they will not let the group gain more ground. He also said that Daesh has no significant presence in the country and they need to hide themselves as the Taliban security forces are chasing them.

However, still the Daesh managed to carry out some activities like blast in Kabul, and some provinces, including direct attacks on Taliban meetings. The group had also taken responsibility for attacks on a hotel in Kabul, famous for Chinese guests. Daesh also attacked Russian and Pakistan embassies in Kabul.

In return, the Taliban have intensified attacks on the Daesh hideouts, and killed key Daesh members. Daesh members were also arrested and their family members were shifted to the safe place.

Particular, Daesh had actively targeted Chinese sites, a neighboring country that has been involved in construction and reconstruction of Afghanistan.

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China trade fair: US market ‘frozen’ amid tariff hikes

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Candice Li, attending the China trade fair in Canton, says that US orders for her firm’s medical devices have dried up after Washington increased tariffs on Chinese goods by 145%.

Speaking to Reuters, Candice Li, marketing manager at Conmo Electronic Co., said, “This is a matter of life and death because 60%-70% of our business is with American clients.” She added, “Goods cannot be exported, and money cannot be collected. This is a very serious situation.”

Li was at her firm’s booth at the Canton Fair in the southern city of Guangzhou, China’s largest trade fair, held twice a year, where more than 30,000 participants display their products in an area larger than 200 soccer fields.

This fair is the first China has held since US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs earlier this month, exceeding 100% for China and at least 10% for the rest of the world.

Most of the exporters Reuters spoke with said that US orders, vital for firms like Li’s, were either delayed or not arriving—a bad sign for the world’s second-largest economy, whose growth last year relied heavily on its trillion-dollar trade surplus.

No other country comes close to China’s sales of over $400 billion in goods to the US annually.

Even though the tariffs Trump will impose on the rest of the world are much lower, they are likely to reduce global demand in the coming months and, indirectly, the appetite for Chinese goods in other countries.

Kobe Huang, a sales representative for Shenzhen Landun Environmental Technology, which produces water filters and smart toilets, said at the China trade fair in Canton that European sales are up for now, but the US market is “frozen.”

“US clients and distributors haven’t canceled orders, but they’ve asked us to wait. So, we’re holding on,” he stated.

Levy Spence, a US importer and president of Air Esscentials, said, “Prices will go up.” He added, “Even for products we source in the United States, many of the raw materials come from all over the world. It’s not just about China tariffs.”

Organizers noted that approximately 170,000 overseas buyers had registered for this month’s fair as of April 8, compared to a record attendance of 253,000 at the previous fair, which ended in November. About 10% of these attendees come from the US and Europe, whereas the previous rate was about 20%.

The fair will take place from April 15 to May 5. Local media reported that a total of $25 billion in deals were made at the previous fair.

Many exporters said they were either moving production bases outside of China or shifting the markets where they sell away from the US.

Henry Han, sales manager at Apexto Electronics Co., which produces SSD and micro SD flash drives, says that the US market, which accounted for 30% before the pandemic, now accounts for only 10% of direct sales. Many of his clients receive shipments of components for final assembly in a third country to avoid tariffs.

Apexto conducted a study last year to see if it could move production to Vietnam or the Philippines to avoid being directly affected by US tariffs, but Han said these plans are currently on hold as these countries may also face high tariffs.

After Trump imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam and 17% on the Philippines on April 2, he reduced these rates to 10% for the next three months while beginning bilateral negotiations on trade with approximately 75 different countries.

David Du, sales manager for speaker manufacturer Zealot, said that an order for 30,000 speakers to be distributed to Skechers stores in the US was suspended after Trump’s tariffs. However, he said they could rely on other markets.

Zealot had a major and unexpected breakthrough in Nigeria in 2015, where its all-in-one speaker, power bank, and emergency flashlight became a hit, accounting for 40% of total sales and taking 45 containers a month—a market now twice as large as the US.

Du said they are “as big as JBL” in Nigeria, referring to the California-based audio equipment brand.

Medical device maker Li said her firm cannot find new markets overnight. She fears Conmo will soon have to reduce working hours and, eventually, staffing levels.

Li said, “I worry that if the situation remains deadlocked and neither side gives in, it will be ordinary people who ultimately suffer. How will salaries be paid? There will be unemployment.”

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Japanese prime minister warns of US tariffs’ impact on global economy

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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned on Monday that US tariffs could disrupt the global economic order. However, he also emphasized that Japan would seek common ground with the US on how the two countries could cooperate on various issues, from trade to national security.

“When negotiating with the US, we need to understand the logic and emotional elements behind Trump’s views,” Ishiba said in a parliamentary speech.

“I am fully aware that what has happened so far has the potential to disrupt the global economic order,” he said.

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba also stated that the government is not currently considering issuing a supplementary budget but is ready to take timely action to mitigate the economic impact of US tariffs. Ishiba had previously described Trump’s tariffs as a “national crisis” for Japan. Ishiba stated, “We must call this a national crisis. The government will do everything possible to respond to this crisis affecting the entire country.”

These statements come before the start of bilateral trade talks on Thursday, which are expected to cover various issues, from tariffs and non-tariff barriers to exchange rates.

In his latest statement on tariffs on Sunday, Trump said he would announce the tariff rate to be applied to imported semiconductors within the next week.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s top negotiator in trade talks with the US, said any discussion of exchange rates would take place between Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

“Both countries share the view that excessive market volatility will have negative effects on the economy,” Kato said at the same parliamentary session.

Trump’s tariffs are expected to hit the Japanese economy hard. A failed response from Ishiba could become a liability for the prime minister as he leads his party into upper house elections this summer.

Prime Minister Ishiba’s cabinet was already shaky within the LDP and suffering from low approval ratings. His government faces a difficult task, including persuading affected industries within the country to comply with the outcome of negotiations and preparing aid measures.

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Taiwan courts Trump amidst tariff reprieve

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When US President Donald Trump stated that he would impose a 32% “reciprocal” tariff on Taiwanese exports, Taiwan’s leader, Lai Ching-te, responded cautiously. With Trump’s decision to delay, a critical 90 days awaits the Lai administration.

Since Trump’s return to the White House in January, Taiwan has made significant efforts to gain favor with Trump and maintain unofficial relations. The largest chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), has pledged a $100 billion investment in the US, a move supported by Lai. Last month, Taiwan hosted Alaska’s Republican Governor, Mike Dunleavy, a Trump ally, and planned to import liquefied natural gas from the state. The Lai administration has also aligned with US calls for increased defense spending, promising to raise it to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Trump still included Taiwan on his tariff target list. However, his abrupt decision to halt tariffs, except for a 10% baseline rate for everyone, may have opened a “bargaining” window for Taiwan to persuade Trump.

“Now that we have another 90 days, we can discuss Taiwan-US economic and trade cooperation in more detail and depth,” Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, Lin Chia-lung, told reporters on Thursday.

Lin praised the potential collaboration, stating, “We hope to create a joint fleet approach by leveraging the US’s enormous market, excellent technology capital, and talent in a Taiwan-US coalition.”

According to local media, Lai said on Friday that Taiwan was among the “first” on the list for discussions with the Trump administration.

Expressing confidence in Taiwan’s economy in a special broadcast last week, Lai emphasized strengthening industrial cooperation with the US and upgrading Taiwanese industries in global supply chains.

“Taiwan has no plans to adopt retaliatory tariffs to address the US’s reciprocal tariffs. There will be no changes to corporate investment commitments to the US as long as they are consistent with national interests,” Lai stated.

He added, “At the same time, we must ensure that the US clearly understands Taiwan’s contributions to US economic development.”

In an op-ed published by Bloomberg this week, Lai detailed his planned approach. He stated that his administration is willing to reduce its tariffs to zero “on a reciprocal basis with the US.” He also pledged to expand purchases of American goods, continue additional arms purchases, continue making new investments “across the US,” and remove non-tariff barriers while addressing US concerns about export controls and improper transshipment through Taiwan.

“Lai’s approach to foreign relations is cautious and focused primarily on US relations, and secondarily on Japan,” said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, President of the US-Taiwan Business Council.

Hammond-Chambers noted that the sentiment of “deterring China” brings with it the understanding that strong relations with America “must be maintained at all costs.”

In a speech in February, Lai emphasized shared values and expressed gratitude for Trump’s support. Lai pledged to continue reforming and improving defense to encompass “the entire society” and to prioritize special budget allocations to ensure defense spending exceeds 3% of GDP.

The US government has supported Lai’s security reforms, with the de facto American Ambassador, Raymond Greene, openly expressing this support.

TSMC’s $100 billion investment marks the latest in a wave of companies committing large sums to the US: Taiwan and the US are preparing to sign a long-awaited agreement to end double taxation, which will smooth the path.

Hammond-Chambers said that Lai’s approach has so far been well-received among Republican legislators and Trump administration officials.

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