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China economy starts 2026 on stronger footing despite rising geopolitical risks

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China’s economy opened the year on a firmer footing, with factory output accelerating and both retail sales and investment rebounding in the January-February period, offering policymakers an early measure of relief even as the US–Israel war with Iran injects fresh uncertainty into the growth outlook.

The resilience follows a surge in exports driven by booming demand for artificial intelligence-linked technologies, which has also buoyed the upstream manufacturing sector. Yet analysts caution that geopolitical tensions, fragile consumer confidence, and strains in global trade and energy markets continue to cloud the outlook.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed industrial output rose 6.3% year on year, up from 5.2% growth in December. The figure exceeded the 5% forecast in a Reuters poll and marked the fastest expansion since September last year.

“Despite rising risks to the outlook from geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global trade and energy markets, the latest data indicate that China has entered the year with a stronger growth foundation than previously expected,” said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, rose 2.8%, accelerating from December’s 0.9% increase and marking the strongest growth since October last year. Analysts had expected a 2.5% rise.

Part of the momentum was driven by the country’s longest Lunar New Year holiday in February, with total tourism spending rising about 19% compared with the same holiday period last year, which was one day shorter.

However, spending per trip in domestic tourism fell 0.2%, suggesting consumers remain cautious.

For instance, data released last week showed domestic passenger vehicle sales dropped 26% in the first two months of the year.

China reports January and February data together to smooth distortions caused by the shifting timing of holiday periods.

Figures released on Monday also offered another encouraging signal for policymakers, as a surprise rise in investment helped offset some of the drag from the prolonged downturn in the critical property sector.

Fixed-asset investment, which includes property and infrastructure, rose 1.8% in the first two months of the year. The increase defied analysts’ expectations of a 2.1% decline and followed a 3.8% contraction in 2025, which marked the first annual drop in nearly three decades.

Infrastructure investment led the rebound, growing 11.4%, as policy support began to take effect, including a new financing tool for banks to fund key projects.

While the headline data point to pockets of strength, they also underscore a persistent gap between robust external demand and weak household consumption. Analysts warn that this imbalance could weigh on China’s long-term growth prospects.

“There is still a non-negligible risk that domestic demand data will remain under downward pressure in March,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ, adding that the overall data do not yet warrant an interest rate cut.

Credit data released last week also pointed to continued stagnation in household borrowing.

In a concerning signal for income generation, the surveyed nationwide unemployment rate edged up to 5.3% in the first two months of the year, from 5.1% in December.

Impact of war likely to be felt in coming months

At last week’s annual parliamentary meeting, policymakers set a growth target of 4.5%–5% for this year, below last year’s “around 5%” goal.

That target was achieved in 2025 largely on the back of a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, a development that has unsettled China’s trading partners.

Analysts say China faces significant challenges as it seeks to secure more sustainable long-term growth.

Although the government has pledged a “significant” boost to household consumption, it has announced only limited measures pointing to aggressive demand-side reforms.

The conflict in the Middle East adds a new layer of uncertainty by pushing up energy prices and disrupting global trade, while raising the stakes for US President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing at the end of March, where he is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping.

NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui told a press briefing on Monday that the war in the Middle East had triggered volatility in oil prices and unsettled markets, but said China’s overall energy supply could act as a buffer against external shocks. He added that the impact of the conflict on domestic prices required further study.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said: “The turmoil in the Middle East is expected to show its impact on the global economy in the coming months… I expect policymakers to respond through fiscal policy if necessary.”

“The market will focus on the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders. China will likely purchase more goods from the US to reduce the trade imbalance, but the war in the Middle East has made the meeting more complicated,” he added.

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Chinese Politburo signals cautious confidence as Beijing pivots toward targeted tech support

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The mid-year meeting of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Politburo has long served as a critical evaluation point for Beijing. The session provides the central government with an opportunity to review developments from the first half of the year and steer the country toward a more realistic economic course in the months ahead.

The latest statement from the top leadership signals cautious confidence. The release indicates that policymakers are favoring a stable, targeted approach over the broad-based stimulus measures that characterized previous years. As China manages its economic transition, the post-Covid era of aggressive spending has clearly drawn to a close. In its place, a strategic and structural approach has taken hold, prioritizing resilience and stability over short-term capital injections.

According to the outcomes of the Politburo meeting, the policy orientation will continue to target specific sectors. Financial support will be directed away from the property market and toward high-tech emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. In the real estate sector, the objective remains stabilizing market confidence and keeping debt risks under control.

Infrastructure investment is likewise being reshaped around the concept of “new infrastructure.” The focus is no longer solely on concrete and physical structures; smart power grids, information technology networks, and data infrastructure have taken precedence.

This approach signifies an investment in future competitiveness rather than simply pumping capital into the economy’s more stagnant sectors. Serving as a new driver of growth, digital infrastructure fulfills a dual purpose: supporting domestic demand in the short term while safeguarding technological competitiveness over the long term.

Finally, Beijing is signaling a more conciliatory posture in international trade. The Chinese leadership aims to establish a more balanced trade framework to mitigate concerns voiced by trade partners such as the European Union over what has been termed “China Shock 2.0.”

As the administration prepares for critical leadership changes next year, its primary focus will remain on stability across both economic and social spheres.

China continues to strike a balance between realistic growth targets and systemic restructuring, maintaining policy leeway to absorb potential external shocks. Beijing’s economic strategy reflects a pragmatic assessment of both domestic and international challenges.

Struggling with weak demand, the domestic economy is not yet in a position to anchor national growth independently. Expansion continues to rely heavily on a record trade surplus alongside the impressive export performance of high-tech and clean energy sectors. However, this reliance has drawn pushback from several trading partners.

To stimulate domestic economic activity and ease trade tensions, Beijing unveiled its first standalone five-year plan focused on consumption. Released in July by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, the plan targets an increase in retail sales to 60 trillion yuan (approximately $8.9 trillion) by 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 20% compared to 2025 levels.

To improve profit margins for small businesses, regulatory authorities are tackling the issue of “involution”—described as excessive internal competition—by curbing platform monopolies and preventing destructive price wars. While these structural adjustments may take longer to yield results, they are viewed as a more sustainable and effective alternative to direct cash handouts.

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Chinese chipmaker profits surge 2,500% on explosive AI computing demand

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Major Chinese microchip manufacturers saw their profits surge by 2,579.5% in the first half of 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence and computing capacity.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), underscored the industry’s sharp upward trajectory.

Yu Weining, senior statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics, explained that this surge is directly connected to the accelerating integration of artificial intelligence across various sectors.

Yu noted that this process has increased the need for computing capacity. The demand for computational processes also lifted profits across the entire electronics industry by 97% year-on-year.

Profits of major Chinese industrial enterprises with an annual revenue exceeding 20 million yuan ($2.9 million) rose 18.7% in the first six months of the year, reaching 4 trillion yuan.

In the first half of 2025, before the global data center construction process had begun, industrial profits had dropped by 1.8% to 3.4 trillion yuan, while profit growth in the electronics sector remained at 3.5%.

The SCMP reported that the global AI boom has generated explosive demand for high-performance computing systems and memory chips, causing a structural pivot in China’s industrial landscape.

Data showed that integrated circuit production in the first half of the year grew by 23% year-on-year to reach approximately 280 billion units.

This figure means that the country produced an average of more than 1.5 billion chips per day.

The profit growth is also corroborated by forecasts from China’s leading chipmakers. Shenzhen Longsys Electronics, one of the largest memory module manufacturers, expects its profits to increase by more than 600-fold in the first half of the year.

Flash memory maker GigaDevice projects that its net profit will surge by approximately 1,099% year-on-year due to supply shortages and rising product prices.

Chinese companies in the AI chip segment are also demonstrating strong profit growth, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the memory market.

Hygon Information Technology, which develops central processing units and computing units for artificial intelligence, projects that its profits will rise by up to 52.3%.

CXMT hits record high on Shanghai Stock Exchange

Shares of Chinese chipmaker CXMT gained more than 500% on their first day of trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, jumping from 8.66 yuan to 55 yuan.

As a result of this sharp surge in its shares, CXMT’s market valuation reached 3.65 trillion yuan ($539 billion), making the company China’s most valuable publicly traded firm.

At the peak of the rally—even though quoted prices underwent a slight correction toward the close of the trading day—CXMT surpassed Tencent, which was trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $514 billion.

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Massive student movement over exam leaks forces resignation of India’s education minister

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Indian public examination reform proposals follow education minister’s resignation after nationwide youth protests

India’s federal government introduced legislation in parliament on Monday to amend the law governing public examinations, days after the “Cockroach” movement forced the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan following nationwide youth protests.

The bill incorporates enhanced sanctions, including longer prison sentences and higher fines for those found responsible for exam leaks and irregularities.

The demonstrations are widely viewed as the most significant youth-led challenge faced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he took office in 2014.

What triggered the protests?

Nearly 2 million students took the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET), an undergraduate medical entrance examination, in May. The federal National Testing Agency cancelled the exam on May 12 following allegations that question papers had been leaked. The examination was re-administered on June 21.

Young people took to the streets to protest against examination fraud, youth unemployment, and a perceived lack of future prospects.

According to a BBC report, the unemployment rate among university and college graduates aged 15 to 25 in the country stands at a critically high level of 40%. The addition of corruption in public examinations to existing economic strain broke the patience of the youth.

Abhijeet Dipke, founder of the Cockroach Public Party (CJP) movement, led the protests.

The movement derived its name from remarks made in May by Supreme Court Judge Surya Kant, who used the terms “cockroach” and “parasite” in a derogatory reference to unemployed youth and protesters. Young demonstrators adopted the insult as a symbol and named their movement after it.

How the movement unfolded

Young protesters organized street demonstrations demanding the resignation of Education Minister Pradhan. Dipke, who initiated the movement in New Delhi, subsequently organized protests in other parts of the country.

Sonam Wangchuk, one of the protesters, began a hunger strike at the demonstration site in support of the movement. As his physical condition deteriorated, authorities forcibly transferred him to a hospital.

The reaction to Wangchuk’s forcible removal from the protest site caused crowds at the venue to expand rapidly.

Tens of thousands of protesters faced tear gas and baton charges by police while attempting to march on parliament. Some demonstrators engaged in clashes with law enforcement officers.

CJP leaders held talks with ministers from the Modi government, who requested time to evaluate the protesters’ demands internally.

Modi called for unity among lawmakers in the ruling coalition to implement strict measures against exam paper leaks, punish those responsible, and establish a secure, leak-proof system.

Opposition representatives led by Rahul Gandhi staged a sit-in at the entrance of Modi’s official residence demanding Pradhan’s resignation. They were briefly detained by police before being released.

Opposition lawmakers supporting the student protesters disrupted proceedings in parliament. Demonstrations expanded to other regions of the country, including the financial hub of Mumbai.

In his first direct statement regarding the protests, published in a post on X, Modi announced that special courts would be established to prosecute individuals involved in exam paper leaks. Protesters rejected the proposal.

Movement leaders held a second round of talks with the government after Wangchuk ended his 26-day hunger strike.

Following those discussions, the government requested time until the afternoon of the following day to respond to the demand for Pradhan’s resignation.

Education Minister Pradhan subsequently announced his resignation, stating that he was stepping down in light of the situation at the protest site and across the country, as well as to prevent “external forces” from exploiting the environment.

On July 26, Modi announced the creation of a task force headed by technology entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani to overhaul the country’s examination system.

On Monday, July 27, the government presented a bill to parliament proposing amendments to the law governing public examinations. The legislation introduces stiffer penalties for offenders, including extended prison terms and increased monetary fines.

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