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Asian buyers scramble for Russian oil after US sanctions waiver

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Asian governments are moving quickly to secure Russian oil supplies after the US temporarily lifted sanctions, opening a window for the purchase of previously restricted cargoes.

The rush follows Washington’s decision to suspend sanctions in an effort to offset disruptions to supplies from the Middle East. Facing rising prices and tightening supply, India has stepped up crude purchases from Russia, while Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have signalled openness to buying Russian barrels. China, previously the largest buyer of Russian crude before the Iran war, has continued its purchases.

Russian oil had traded at a significant discount prior to US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Sanctions imposed by the US and its allies after Russia’s intervention in Ukraine led many countries to avoid buying Russian crude.

In 2025, only a handful of countries—chiefly China, India and Türkiye—continued to purchase Russian oil on a large scale, according to data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

India had begun reducing purchases under a February 2026 agreement with US President Donald Trump, which cut tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%.

Commodity intelligence firm Kpler estimated on March 6 that around 130 million barrels of Russian crude were stranded at sea, with 54 million barrels located between the Suez Canal and Singapore.

On March 13, the US announced a 30-day waiver allowing trade in sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products that were already at sea. Asian buyers, eager to secure supplies, are moving swiftly to take advantage.

Russian export benchmark Urals crude has risen sharply. Prices climbed from $58.16 a barrel on February 27-the day before US strikes on Iran—to as high as $100 in early March, before easing to around $90 on Wednesday, roughly in line with global benchmark Brent crude.

India has now doubled its Russian oil purchases to roughly 1.8 million barrels per day, according to Kpler. The firm said before the US waiver that Russian supply could provide a buffer in the long term but would not fully offset the roughly 2.6 million barrels per day India typically sources from the Middle East.

China, and to a lesser extent Türkiye, have also begun building inventories. However, China’s purchases have not surged significantly, partly because India had started to scale back buying earlier.

Major Chinese players are re-engaging with the market. State-owned oil companies Sinopec and PetroChina have discussed potential purchases with suppliers for the first time since November.

“China and India will compete for many of the Russian barrels stranded at sea,” said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy.

Cosimo Ries, an analyst at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China, said China remains relatively insulated thanks to its large reserves but warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would be “highly destructive” for Asia’s largest economy. Rising global oil prices have already pushed up domestic fuel costs, with another increase expected next week.

“China cannot fully insulate itself even if supplies are seriously disrupted,” Ries said, adding that global market prices would affect China even if it continued to access Iranian crude.

Southeast Asian governments that had previously avoided Russian oil are now reassessing.

In the Philippines, state-backed Philippine National Oil Company—an ally of the US—contacted Russian suppliers on Monday, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said.

Garin added that Manila had also reached out to long-standing fuel suppliers including China, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Japan, while warning that existing contracts must be honoured as countries seek to prevent domestic shortages.

Thailand, another US ally, has begun discussions with Russia over potential oil purchases, Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said on Tuesday. Bangkok is also engaging with alternative suppliers such as Brazil, Nigeria and Kazakhstan.

Indonesia, a net oil importer, has indicated it is open to buying Russian crude. “Every country is an option. What matters for us now is securing supply,” Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said.

Indonesia had previously examined the possibility of purchasing Russian crude in 2024, when state oil company Pertamina submitted a bid. However, in February 2026, Jakarta declined to proceed in the face of proposed European Union sanctions.

Russian crude alone is unlikely to fully compensate for lost Middle Eastern supply.

“I don’t think Russian crude will bring prices down,” an industry expert told Nikkei Asia.

“It may cap the increase to some extent, but what we are more likely to see is competition for existing barrels in Asia, particularly involving China and India. These are largely rerouted cargoes rather than new supply,” the expert added.

Many refineries in the region are technically capable of processing Russian crude.

“Many Asian refineries are already configured for medium-sour crude, so it is technically compatible,” the source said. “But blending, logistics and sanction-related frictions are still slowing things down.”

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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