Diplomacy
Chinese academic analyzes Israel-Iran conflict for Harici: Iran holds strategic importance for China
Associate Professor Dr. Yang Chen, Executive Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at Shanghai University, analyzed Beijing’s stance on the Israel-Iran conflict, the perspective of Chinese academia, and the impact of these developments on China’s Middle East policy for Harici.
Following Israel’s attacks, Beijing’s initial reaction was to express its “serious concerns” and call on all parties to prevent further escalation.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated on Friday that China resolutely opposes any violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, as well as any actions that “escalate tensions.”
“The recent escalation of tensions in the region serves no one’s interest,” Lin said. “China calls on all parties to take measures that promote regional peace and stability while preventing the situation from deteriorating further,” he added.
The spokesperson also emphasized that China is prepared to play a “constructive role” in de-escalating the crisis.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also held phone calls with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Israeli Minister Gideon Sa’ar. Condemning Israel’s attacks on Iran, Wang Yi said that at a time when the international community is striving for a political solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, this attack was “absolutely unacceptable.” He called for a “return to diplomatic channels to resolve the issues.”
Associate Professor Dr. Yang Chen, Executive Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at Shanghai University, analyzed Beijing’s stance on the Israel-Iran conflict, the perspective of Chinese academia, and the impact of these developments on China’s Middle East policy for Harici.
‘Beijing is willing to play a constructive role’
Recalling the statements of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, Yang Chen noted that China is deeply concerned about Israel’s attack on Iran and is extremely worried about the serious consequences such actions could have. Yang stated that China opposes the violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, and also opposes the escalation of conflicts and rising tensions.
He noted that China has urged all relevant parties to make greater efforts to promote regional peace and stability and to refrain from further escalating tensions, and is willing to play a constructive role in promoting the de-escalation of the situation.
‘Iran faces the threat of a color revolution’
From the perspective of Chinese academics, Yang stated that the fundamental conflict in the Middle East has now shifted from the previous conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran to the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Yang noted that since Trump took office, the struggle of containment and counter-containment between Israel and the “axis of resistance” [a term for an anti-Israel and anti-Western political and military alliance led by Iran] led by Iran has continued to escalate. He assessed that “the struggle between the anti-Israel united front and the anti-Iran united front will intensify.”
Stressing that Iran faces a major threat of a “color revolution” [a term used to describe protest movements, often accused by governments of being foreign-instigated, seeking regime change], Yang Chen said, “In this attack, Iranian hardliners were targeted and eliminated, dealing a heavy blow to Iran’s influence. It is feared that if Iran does not retaliate decisively against the Israeli attack, it will face a more dangerous situation in the future, its regional influence will be severely weakened, and even the stability of the regime could be jeopardized.”
‘China favors stability in Iran’
Yang said that China’s Middle East policy has always maintained its stability and continuity and will not fundamentally change despite dramatic developments. He explained Iran’s importance to Beijing as follows: “Iran is a country of strategic importance to China. Iran is at the heart of Eurasia, a key hub of the Belt and Road Initiative, an important source of China’s energy resources, and an important guarantee for maintaining stability in Central Asia and ensuring the security of Xinjiang.”
For this reason, Yang stated that Beijing wants Iran to remain stable. “China does not want Iran to be suppressed by the US and the West, nor does it want Iran to pivot towards the US and the West,” he assessed.
Yang also pointed out that Iran is facing major challenges in its domestic and foreign affairs, listing them as follows:
1) Economic stagnation
“First, economic development in Iran is stagnant. In 2024, Iran’s gross domestic product was $434.2 billion (equivalent to the economic size of China’s Shaanxi Province); this figure has still not reached the level of the decade from 2008 to 2017 and is far from its 2011 peak of $625.4 billion. The GDP per capita is approximately $4,500 (only 1/12th of Israel’s GDP per capita of $52,261); this has caused dissatisfaction among the Iranian people. Economic stagnation also prevents Iran from providing strong support to the ‘axis of resistance’.”
2) Nuclear negotiations
“Second, political changes have occurred in Iran, and a moderate president has taken office. On July 30, 2024, Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was sworn in. As a moderate president, Pezeshkian expressed his hope to open a ‘constructive’ chapter in his country’s international relations during his participation in the United Nations General Assembly in September 2024, and stressed that Iran is ‘ready for dialogue with the West on its nuclear program.’ This also indicates that Iran is willing to negotiate with the West and renegotiate the ‘Iran nuclear deal.’ However, with the weakening of the ‘axis of resistance,’ Iran’s bargaining power to obtain sanctions relief from the West has diminished.”
3) National security
“Third, the internal security situation in Iran is worrying. In recent years, Israel has carried out a series of assassinations in Iran; these include Iran’s senior nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps leader Qasem Soleimani, and IRGC Intelligence Official Mohammad Akiki. In May 2024, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a plane crash. In July 2024, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital, Tehran, and Israel later officially claimed responsibility for the incident. This shows that Israeli and US intelligence agencies have completely infiltrated Iran’s national security system and can operate as they please in Iran, assassinating whomever they wish. Iran’s national security has failed to protect the lives of its own president, senior military commanders, key scientists, senior intelligence officials, and foreign guests.”
Stressing that Iran is currently facing great difficulties, Yang Chen stated that despite this, Tehran must adopt a stance of “not fearing great powers and challenges” in order to survive.
According to Yang, if Iran can prove its regional influence and resolutely demonstrate its anti-American and anti-Israeli stance, it can gain more external support.
Diplomacy
South Korea pulls part of embassy staff from Ukraine amid POW dispute
The South Korean government has decided to withdraw part of its embassy staff from Ukraine.
According to the Yonhap news agency, Foreign Ministry spokesman Park Doo-sun cited the Kyiv administration’s failure to take “positive steps” in the dispute that began with the leak of information concerning the handover of North Korean prisoners of war as the justification for the move.
The spokesman also listed the ongoing threat of air strikes, which complicates the safety of diplomats, among the reasons.
Following the withdrawal of part of the personnel, essential diplomatic contacts will continue under the leadership of the charge d’affaires ad interim to Ukraine. All consular staff tasked with protecting South Korean citizens will remain in Ukraine.
Prior to this move, the Seoul administration decided on 8 October to withdraw its ambassador. The Foreign Ministry stated at the time that it was ready to continue consultations with Kyiv to resolve the emerging issues constructively.
Tensions between the two countries began with a speech delivered by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations General Assembly in September.
Zelenskyy announced that two captured soldiers from the North Korean army had been handed over to South Korea.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, meanwhile, accused Kyiv of breaching a confidentiality agreement.
Lee said the disclosure of this information endangered the prisoners’ families and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Seoul expects a public apology
Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, denied the existence of a confidentiality agreement.
The South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned Ukrainian Charge d’Affaires Andriy Veshkin on 28 September and issued a note of protest against Lytvyn’s remarks.
President Lee Jae-myung warned in a statement on 2 October that they would take additional measures against Kyiv if Ukrainian authorities did not acknowledge the agreement and make a public apology. Lee stated that Ukraine itself had initially requested that the transfer of the prisoners be kept confidential.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said the dispute stemmed from differing interpretations of the confidentiality regime.
Tykhyi noted that Seoul, based on its constitution which recognises the entire Korean Peninsula as its own territory, requested that the prisoners be handed over “like its own citizens”.
Describing the handover as a “gesture of goodwill”, Tykhyi stated that they were conducting closed-door negotiations to resolve differences of opinion.
Ambassador Park Ki-chang returned to Seoul on 10 October. According to a report by The Korea Times newspaper citing the ministry, recalling the ambassador served as a diplomatic protest against the leak of information regarding the prisoners.
The newspaper wrote that South Korea had last taken a similar step in 2008 by withdrawing its ambassador to Japan.
Moscow warned foreign diplomats
On 3 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated its warning to foreign nationals, including diplomatic mission staff, against remaining in Ukraine.
The ministry recalled its advice to leave Kyiv, citing ongoing strikes against military targets.
The ministry noted that those who failed to heed the warnings would bear responsibility for the potential consequences.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a statement on 24 September that they had no information regarding Kyiv handing over two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul.
Peskov, noting that prisoner matters fall under the authority of the Defence Ministry and intelligence services, said, “Contacts through the special services are continuing.”
Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
Diplomacy
Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.
“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”
In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.
According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.
The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.
Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.
Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.
“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”
Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.
Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.
These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.
Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.
In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.
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