The German automotive sector is facing an unprecedented level of restructuring pressure.

As Chinese manufacturers establish dominance in the domestic market for electric and hybrid vehicles, German automakers are rapidly losing market share.

In the first half of 2026, sales figures in China for BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen fell by more than a quarter.

Volkswagen is undergoing the largest restructuring process in its history. Chief Executive Officer Oliver Blume is planning to halve the company’s model lineup, reduce production capacity by approximately one million vehicles, and cut up to 100,000 jobs worldwide.

Volkswagen is not limiting its strategy to radical cost-cutting measures alone. For the first time, the company is considering the possibility of introducing models developed specifically for the Chinese market to Europe, with a view toward manufacturing them in European plants over the long term.

At the same time, other European manufacturers are relying increasingly on joint ventures established with Chinese companies.

This marks the beginning of a new era: the driving force behind the modernization of the Chinese market is no longer European manufacturers; rather, China is shaping the future of the European automotive industry.

Opel is planning an SUV project in which Chinese engineers will develop the powertrain and battery, while German engineers will handle only the design and seats.

German brands lose ground in the Chinese market

According to an analysis published by German Foreign Policy, the decline in sales for German automakers in the Chinese market is worsening.

In the first half of 2026, sales for BMW, Mercedes, and VW plummeted by over 25%. BMW recorded a drop of nearly one-fifth, while VW and Mercedes fell by 26% and 28%, respectively.

In the wake of the war in Iran, gasoline prices rose in China. This accelerated demand for electric and hybrid vehicles, dealing a negative blow to sales for German automakers, which continue to sell predominantly internal combustion engine vehicles in the country.

Changes in tax regulations governing luxury automobiles are compounding the problem. The tax threshold for new vehicles (excluding VAT) was lowered from the previous level of 1.3 million yuan to 900,000 yuan (approximately €116,000).

The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) assesses that this situation will yield highly negative consequences for European manufacturers, particularly German producers.

According to forecasts by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), demand for internal combustion engine vehicles has dropped significantly, especially in the price segment between 900,000 and 1.3 million yuan.

Consumers purchasing luxury vehicles are increasingly turning instead to Chinese-origin electric or hybrid models.

BMW, Mercedes, and VW have already been forced to significantly scale back their plug-in hybrid operations.

Tax incentives targeting partially electrified powertrains now apply exclusively to vehicles capable of traveling at least 100 kilometers on electric power alone.

This state of affairs is forcing a restructuring of model portfolios across German automakers.

Fewer models, fewer plants

VW CEO Oliver Blume intends to counter this trend.

VW management plans to reduce its model lineup by up to 50%. Product and variant diversity will be cut by 75%.

Furthermore, annual production capacity will be scaled down from the current 10 million vehicles to approximately 9 million. The vehicle model count, which currently stands at around 150, will be halved.

This development primarily affects the internal combustion engine segment in China. In China, VW management has already closed or sold five plants, reducing local capacity by approximately one million vehicles.

Over the long term, the company aims to return to annual sales of 10 million vehicles. Of the 1 million vehicles that VW plans to withdraw temporarily from the market, half are situated in European plants, specifically in Germany.

The remaining half of the excess capacity remains in China, despite the closures executed to date.

To shrink production capacity, the VW Group plans to eliminate up to 50,000 jobs globally. In Germany, the future of four plants is currently under review.

These layoffs will take place in addition to the 50,000 job cuts already planned through 2030.

Oliver Blume characterizes this as the largest transformation in the history of the VW Group: “This is not merely a cost-cutting package; it is the most comprehensive and far-reaching transformation package we have ever implemented at the Volkswagen Group.”

Plunging operating profits spur workforce cuts

VW management is consequently taking radical action to trim model counts, production capacity, and headcounts.

At the same time, the Group is not abandoning its profit targets. In the first half of 2026, the group’s operating profit dropped 11.6% to €5.93 billion.

The operating margin fell to 3.8%, meaning VW generated only €3.80 in operating profit for every €100 in revenue.

Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz called the results “another wake-up call to act.”

The profit contribution from Chinese operations fell by one-third to €856 million.

However, Blume views this not as a “Volkswagen crisis,” but rather as an “industry crisis.”

Alternatives: Defense production and China-specific models

Oliver Blume views potential plant closures in Emden, Zwickau, Hanover, and at Audi’s Neckarsulm facility as a “last resort.”

He also noted that utilizing these plants for defense industry manufacturing represents a distinct possibility.

Another option involves producing China-specific VW models for the European market. This refers explicitly to VW models that have hitherto been sold exclusively in China, but it does not imply opening production to other manufacturers.

Additionally, VW plans to increase exports from its Chinese factories to other markets, such as Australia, India, and Central Asian nations, in the future.

The plan to bring its own China-specific models to Europe includes both the importation of finished vehicles and, at a later stage, the manufacturing of those vehicles or their components within Europe.

According to internal sources, the VW plant in Zwickau is being evaluated as a prospective production site.

VW already imports the Cupra Tavascan from China, a model belonging to Cupra, the Spanish brand owned by the VW Group.

In Germany, the Tavascan ranks among the top ten best-selling electric cars, currently holding ninth position.

Within the VW Group, it was decided that the motor for the planned €20,000 electric vehicle, the ID. EVERY1 model, will be imported from a VW component factory in China.

Olaf Lies, the SPD Prime Minister of Lower Saxony, expressed openness to producing Chinese models in German VW plants following a trade trip to China.

European auto giants deepen partnerships with China

Other European car manufacturers are also seeking to offset falling capacity utilization by establishing joint ventures with Chinese producers.

Stellantis plans to use four of its plants in Spain, France, and Italy to assemble models for the Chinese groups Leapmotor and Dongfeng.

Stellantis brands—including Opel, Jeep, Fiat, and Peugeot—are currently utilizing only about half of their assembly capacity within the EU.

In the future, Leapmotor models will be manufactured at Stellantis plants in Madrid and Zaragoza, Spain.

Together with Dongfeng, the production of an electric car in Rennes, France, is under consideration.

A small electric vehicle belonging to Leapmotor will be produced in Pomigliano, Italy.

An Opel SUV model featuring Chinese technology will also be manufactured in Madrid.

The powertrain, battery, and software will be sourced from Leapmotor. German engineers will remain responsible solely for design, seats, and the chassis.

EU sanctions against China risk worsening auto crisis

The VW Group’s strategy to import vehicles developed entirely in China carries inherent risks.

The EU imposes a baseline tariff of 10% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, alongside additional duties termed “countervailing” tariffs.

These countervailing tariffs stand at 35% for SAIC (VW’s Chinese joint-venture partner), 17% for BYD, and slightly under 8% for Tesla.

However, countervailing tariffs affect German manufacturers as well. The Cupra Tavascan was initially subjected to a 20.7% tariff.

Following extended negotiations, the European Commission dropped the additional duty for the VW Group model.

In the US, Mercedes faces the threat of market exclusion due to proposed legislation.

The proposed bill would ban the sale of connected vehicles if more than 15% of the manufacturer’s shares are owned by Chinese shareholders.

Just under 20% of Mercedes’ shares are currently held by Chinese investors.

Nearly half of voters in eastern Germany believe the Alternative for Germany (AfD) should enter government if the far-right party emerges as the largest force in upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, according to a survey conducted by opinion research institute YouGov.

In the poll commissioned by the German Press Agency (dpa), 47% of respondents in eastern Germany expressed support for AfD participation in government under those conditions. By comparison, 37% of respondents in western Germany held the same view.

Participants were asked to consider a scenario following the state elections scheduled for September, in which the AfD finishes ahead of all other parties but fails to secure an absolute majority.

Under that scenario, 29% of eastern respondents said all other political parties should unite to form a state government excluding the AfD. In western Germany, 36% supported that approach.

In the same situation, 11% of eastern Germans and 12% of western Germans believed holding new elections would be the correct path. A further 13% in the east and 15% in the west were undecided.

YouGov surveyed 1,573 people in western Germany and 1,570 in eastern Germany. According to the polling firm, the results are representative for both regions.

In eastern Germany, 38% of respondents believed that including the AfD in a governing coalition would strengthen democracy, while 34% felt it would weaken it.

In western Germany, the distribution was reversed: 30% expected democracy to be strengthened, whereas 47% believed democracy would be weakened in such a scenario.

A single-party government led by the AfD met with widespread skepticism in both regions. Only 30% of respondents in the east and 21% in the west expected an AfD-led solo government to strengthen democracy.

Conversely, 57% of respondents in the west and 44% in the east expressed concern that a solo AfD government would weaken democracy.

Participants were also questioned about a proposed “government of experts” model featuring shifting parliamentary majorities that would include the AfD.

According to the poll, 44% of eastern respondents and 39% of western respondents saw potential benefits in this framework.

However, 29% in the east and 34% in the west voiced partial or complete opposition to such a model.

In both regions, 27% of respondents answered that they did not know.

The expert government concept has been primarily advocated by the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

Opinion polls are inherently subject to uncertainties. Factors including declining party loyalty and a growing tendency toward late voting decisions increasingly complicate data interpretation for polling agencies.

Europe would need to spend approximately $3 trillion over the next decade to achieve digital independence and phase out US and Asian technology providers, according to a report by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst Mandeep Singh.

This projected capital outlay encompasses the development of cloud infrastructure, the construction of artificial intelligence data centers, the training of large language models, and investments across other technological domains.

Singh’s report noted that guaranteed demand generated through a “Buy European” mechanism could serve as the single most powerful leverage point for the EU to achieve its software sovereignty objectives.

A prominent example of this shift centers on Palantir, the US-based technology firm founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel. In June, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that France would terminate its partnership with Palantir, despite having three years remaining on its contract with the French domestic intelligence service, the DGSI. Lecornu stated: “France must possess its own tools.”

The announcement followed a decision by US President Donald Trump to restrict access to leading AI models belonging to Anthropic. Lecornu identified ChapsVision, a domestic competitor, as the replacement for Palantir.

Palantir executives were caught off guard by the development, according to Bloomberg. One company official accused Lecornu of turning critical security decisions into a “Hollywood feud.” The official noted that the contract with the DGSI, France’s internal intelligence agency, had only recently been renewed for a three-year period.

In the UK, Member of Parliament Chi Onwurah proposed terminating Palantir’s £330 million ($440 million) contract with the National Health Service (NHS).

“They have a political agenda,” Onwurah said. “Palantir represents an unacceptable vulnerability in our digital infrastructure.”

Bloomberg reported that Palantir’s position in Europe is weakening, with security agencies in Germany and Poland actively seeking local providers. The Dutch Defense Minister pledged to replace Palantir with European vendors. In July, two British startups founded by former Palantir employees secured funding aimed directly at challenging their former employer.

At the center of these developments, ChapsVision has secured contracts across French government ministries and public institutions. According to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates, the DGSI contract alone is worth at least €100 million. Politico reported in May that Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, selected ChapsVision to replace its existing arrangement with Palantir.

In an interview, ChapsVision Chief Executive Officer Silvano Sansoni said: “Our objective is to become a European champion.”

Sansoni stated that the company is currently in talks with all sensitive clients in Poland, adding that Germany represents its primary strategic focus in the near term. Acknowledging that ChapsVision cannot immediately replace Palantir’s full capabilities for French intelligence, Sansoni said: “The technology is complex, so we will not replace Palantir tomorrow.”

Industry experts interviewed by Bloomberg highlighted potential risks associated with the sovereign push. Retired General Richard Barrons, former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, remarked: “Locking Palantir out would be madness. You cut yourself off from world-leading capability.”

Nick Patience, an analyst at The Futurum Group, observed that achieving 100% sovereignty in an interconnected world is unlikely. Patience pointed to ChapsVision’s partnership with Alcatel Lucent Enterprise, a company majority-owned by the Chinese state-owned enterprise China Huaxin.

Bloomberg reported that following Trump’s decision to ban foreign access to the Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models, Europe and Canada resolved to urgently develop sovereign AI capabilities to avoid dependency on foreign policy decisions.

In early June, the Financial Times reported, citing sources, that the US National Security Agency (NSA) could deploy Anthropic’s Claude Mythos model to execute cyber operations.

One source noted that the system could be utilized to penetrate network infrastructure in countries such as China or Iran.