The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in its new report titled Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, announced that the era of nuclear weapons reduction, which has been ongoing since the end of the Cold War, has effectively concluded.

According to the report, while the number of military conflicts worldwide decreased in 2024, the number of fatalities in these conflicts rose. Global military spending and international arms transfers have also reached record levels not seen since the Cold War.

The era of nuclear disarmament is over

The authors of the SIPRI report state that “the era of nuclear weapons reduction has clearly ended,” and the prospect of nuclear disarmament is at its weakest point since the end of the Cold War.

The primary trigger for this situation is cited as the mutual inspection crisis within the framework of the New START Treaty between the US and Russia, which remains in effect until 2026.

Moscow suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023, accusing NATO of involvement in attacks on Ukraine’s strategic airfields. This development is reviving debates on nuclear status in Europe and the Middle East, prompting updates to strategies against the potential proliferation of such weapons.

The report predicts that if Donald Trump is re-elected as US president in 2025, the “paradoxical situation” of his first term will be repeated, and none of the key nuclear powers will “commit to defending the world order.”

The report notes that the US, China, and Russia have begun modernizing their arsenals, with Russia updating its doctrine and the US upgrading its warheads.

“Returning to an era of constraints will require an agreement among the three nuclear powers,” the report states. Although SIPRI views US contacts with China on this issue more positively, it notes that these discussions are “undermined by support for Taiwan and sanctions.”

Fewer conflicts, more casualties

According to SIPRI’s calculations, 51 states were involved in conflicts in 2023, a number that dropped to 49 in 2024. The number of conflicts with over 10,000 fatalities also decreased slightly, from 20 to 19.

The largest conflicts were identified as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, civil wars in Sudan and Myanmar, and the insurgency in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

In contrast, total fatalities from conflicts rose from 188,000 in 2023 to 239,000 in 2024. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, Europe became the region with the highest number of casualties.

Outside of Europe, it was noted that most conflicts occurred “within states or between clusters of states with porous borders,” with the war in Gaza also falling into this category.

Defense spending breaks records

SIPRI’s April report indicated that in 2024, the growth rate of state military spending (9.4%) and the total amount ($2.7 trillion) reached record levels since the end of the Cold War. In Europe, defense appropriations increased by 17%, while in Ukraine, they rose by 3.9%.

China, ranking second in spending, increased its expenditures by 7% in 2024, while Russia also raised its spending. The world leader, the US, saw its spending increase by 5.7%.

In the Middle East, the total increase for the region was 9.4%, driven by a 65% rise in spending by Israel, which has been at war since 2023, and a 12% increase by a rearming Turkey.

Arms companies see rising revenues

SIPRI presented data on the largest defense industry companies for 2023. The revenue of the world’s top 100 defense companies grew by 2.8% from 2022 to 2023, reaching $632 billion.

Of the top 100 companies, 75 increased their revenue, and 39 doubled it. The list of the top 100 companies by revenue includes 41 US firms, with China in second place with nine companies.

Half of the top 10 highest-earning companies are from the US. The total revenue of American arms manufacturers reached $315 billion, accounting for half of the global total.

International arms trade at a peak

According to the SIPRI report, the 2020–2024 period was the second most intense five-year span for international arms transfers, surpassed only by the 1980–1984 period when the Cold War last escalated.

The report states that the largest exporters are traditionally the US, France, Russia, China, and Germany, which together account for 71% of global exports.

The largest buyers were Ukraine, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, accounting for 35% of imports. Over the past 10 years, China has shifted from being an importer to an exporter, reducing its foreign purchases by two-thirds.

Associate Professor Dr. Yang Chen, Executive Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at Shanghai University, analyzed Beijing’s stance on the Israel-Iran conflict, the perspective of Chinese academia, and the impact of these developments on China’s Middle East policy for Harici.

Following Israel’s attacks, Beijing’s initial reaction was to express its “serious concerns” and call on all parties to prevent further escalation.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated on Friday that China resolutely opposes any violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, as well as any actions that “escalate tensions.”

“The recent escalation of tensions in the region serves no one’s interest,” Lin said. “China calls on all parties to take measures that promote regional peace and stability while preventing the situation from deteriorating further,” he added.

The spokesperson also emphasized that China is prepared to play a “constructive role” in de-escalating the crisis.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also held phone calls with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Israeli Minister Gideon Sa’ar. Condemning Israel’s attacks on Iran, Wang Yi said that at a time when the international community is striving for a political solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, this attack was “absolutely unacceptable.” He called for a “return to diplomatic channels to resolve the issues.”

Associate Professor Dr. Yang Chen, Executive Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at Shanghai University, analyzed Beijing’s stance on the Israel-Iran conflict, the perspective of Chinese academia, and the impact of these developments on China’s Middle East policy for Harici.

‘Beijing is willing to play a constructive role’

Recalling the statements of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, Yang Chen noted that China is deeply concerned about Israel’s attack on Iran and is extremely worried about the serious consequences such actions could have. Yang stated that China opposes the violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, and also opposes the escalation of conflicts and rising tensions.

He noted that China has urged all relevant parties to make greater efforts to promote regional peace and stability and to refrain from further escalating tensions, and is willing to play a constructive role in promoting the de-escalation of the situation.

‘Iran faces the threat of a color revolution’

From the perspective of Chinese academics, Yang stated that the fundamental conflict in the Middle East has now shifted from the previous conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran to the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Yang noted that since Trump took office, the struggle of containment and counter-containment between Israel and the “axis of resistance” [a term for an anti-Israel and anti-Western political and military alliance led by Iran] led by Iran has continued to escalate. He assessed that “the struggle between the anti-Israel united front and the anti-Iran united front will intensify.”

Stressing that Iran faces a major threat of a “color revolution” [a term used to describe protest movements, often accused by governments of being foreign-instigated, seeking regime change], Yang Chen said, “In this attack, Iranian hardliners were targeted and eliminated, dealing a heavy blow to Iran’s influence. It is feared that if Iran does not retaliate decisively against the Israeli attack, it will face a more dangerous situation in the future, its regional influence will be severely weakened, and even the stability of the regime could be jeopardized.”

‘China favors stability in Iran’

Yang said that China’s Middle East policy has always maintained its stability and continuity and will not fundamentally change despite dramatic developments. He explained Iran’s importance to Beijing as follows: “Iran is a country of strategic importance to China. Iran is at the heart of Eurasia, a key hub of the Belt and Road Initiative, an important source of China’s energy resources, and an important guarantee for maintaining stability in Central Asia and ensuring the security of Xinjiang.”

For this reason, Yang stated that Beijing wants Iran to remain stable. “China does not want Iran to be suppressed by the US and the West, nor does it want Iran to pivot towards the US and the West,” he assessed.

Yang also pointed out that Iran is facing major challenges in its domestic and foreign affairs, listing them as follows:

1) Economic stagnation

“First, economic development in Iran is stagnant. In 2024, Iran’s gross domestic product was $434.2 billion (equivalent to the economic size of China’s Shaanxi Province); this figure has still not reached the level of the decade from 2008 to 2017 and is far from its 2011 peak of $625.4 billion. The GDP per capita is approximately $4,500 (only 1/12th of Israel’s GDP per capita of $52,261); this has caused dissatisfaction among the Iranian people. Economic stagnation also prevents Iran from providing strong support to the ‘axis of resistance’.”

2) Nuclear negotiations

“Second, political changes have occurred in Iran, and a moderate president has taken office. On July 30, 2024, Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was sworn in. As a moderate president, Pezeshkian expressed his hope to open a ‘constructive’ chapter in his country’s international relations during his participation in the United Nations General Assembly in September 2024, and stressed that Iran is ‘ready for dialogue with the West on its nuclear program.’ This also indicates that Iran is willing to negotiate with the West and renegotiate the ‘Iran nuclear deal.’ However, with the weakening of the ‘axis of resistance,’ Iran’s bargaining power to obtain sanctions relief from the West has diminished.”

3) National security

“Third, the internal security situation in Iran is worrying. In recent years, Israel has carried out a series of assassinations in Iran; these include Iran’s senior nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps leader Qasem Soleimani, and IRGC Intelligence Official Mohammad Akiki. In May 2024, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a plane crash. In July 2024, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital, Tehran, and Israel later officially claimed responsibility for the incident. This shows that Israeli and US intelligence agencies have completely infiltrated Iran’s national security system and can operate as they please in Iran, assassinating whomever they wish. Iran’s national security has failed to protect the lives of its own president, senior military commanders, key scientists, senior intelligence officials, and foreign guests.”

Stressing that Iran is currently facing great difficulties, Yang Chen stated that despite this, Tehran must adopt a stance of “not fearing great powers and challenges” in order to survive.

According to Yang, if Iran can prove its regional influence and resolutely demonstrate its anti-American and anti-Israeli stance, it can gain more external support.

Former CIA official Larry Johnson stated that Israel’s attack on Iran was conducted with the full knowledge and participation of the US, dismissing Washington’s claims of ignorance as “nonsense.” Johnson added that reports suggesting Israel had achieved a major success were not reflective of reality.

Speaking at an online panel organized by the Schiller Institute titled We Must Reject the Path to Nuclear War, Johnson noted that reports claiming Iran’s air defense systems had failed and that Israel had secured a major victory were inaccurate.

Johnson compared the situation to Ukraine’s attacks on Russia, where initial reports suggested significant damage, only for it to be later understood that the impact was limited. “So it wasn’t as bad as it initially appeared,” he remarked.

‘Trump celebrates the deaths of Iranian officials’

Emphasizing that the attack was carried out with the full knowledge and involvement of the US, Johnson pointed to Donald Trump’s statements to the New York Post. Johnson quoted Trump as saying, “I knew Israel was going to attack. I knew everything.” He also noted that Trump celebrated the outcome, stating, “Most of the Iranian government officials we’ve been dealing with recently are now dead.”

Johnson criticized US statements denying awareness of the attack, saying, “America is playing this game right now: ‘We knew nothing about this.’ Trump did the same thing to Putin. This is nonsense.”

‘Israel used ceasefire talks for an ambush’

Johnson made a shocking accusation, claiming that Israel is an unreliable actor that exploits negotiations. “Hassan Nasrallah is dead,” Johnson stated. “He was meeting with other senior Hezbollah members to discuss a ceasefire proposal. And they used this ceasefire proposal to ambush them. There is a pattern of behavior emerging here. Israel cannot be trusted in any kind of negotiation. Nor can the US.”

‘US sent a message that it can hit anyone, anywhere’

Johnson noted that the conflict is ongoing, with missiles being fired and at least ten different cities and nuclear facilities targeted. He added that the media is failing to report on the underground nuclear and missile facilities.

Johnson argued that with this attack, the US has sent a message to the world. “America has now established a successful principle: ‘We can hit anyone, anywhere, with everything we have.’ This principle and message have been sent,” he said.

He concluded, “This situation will continue, especially if the Arab and Muslim world does not come together to confront this and begin to draw up a strategy.”

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