A prolonged disruption in energy supplies resulting from conflict in Iran would deal a severe blow to the global economy, according to a new economic outlook report published on Wednesday.

The research data indicated that such disruptions are highly likely to push countries into recession and lead to an increase in unemployment.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) described the effects of the war in question as the “dominant force shaping the global economic outlook.”

The report noted that if disruptions become persistent, global growth could slow down significantly, falling from 2.1% in 2026 to 1.8% in 2027. This deceleration could depress the world economy to levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Recession.

“With upward pressures from high commodity prices partially offset by weakening final demand, global inflation would rise by 0.4 percentage points in 2026 and by 1.3 percentage points in 2027,” OECD Chief Economist Stefano Scarpetta stated in the report.

Developing economies with limited energy reserves, alongside Asian economies heavily dependent on crude oil, fuel, and natural gas, were identified as being among the hardest hit by this situation.

Focusing on an alternative short-term scenario, researchers reported that if energy production and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz return to pre-conflict levels, growth could rebound to 3.1% in 2027.

The researchers stated that the vulnerability of the global economy to a “single choke point” underscores the necessity of strengthening supply chains and creating a more diversified energy supply. They emphasized that increasing investment to escape dependence on fossil fuel imports is now more urgent than ever.

The report also pointed out that rising defense spending this year is unlikely to expand productive capacity unless it generates spillover effects in non-defense sectors through innovation.

Scarpetta noted that policymakers face difficult decisions, stating, “Central banks could look through supply-driven price increases as long as inflation expectations remain well-anchored and second-round effects are kept under control. However, a policy move may become necessary if price pressures broaden or if growth weakens significantly.”

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices high since the US and Israel launched initial strikes against Iran in late February.

Although average fuel prices in the US have declined due to the influence of recent talks aimed at reaching an agreement to end the conflict, they remained high at $4.26, according to data released by AAA on Wednesday.

Following an average of $3.14 last year, the average last week also remained elevated, standing at the $4.50 level.

Public opinion polls conducted since the beginning of the conflict have revealed that a majority of Americans do not support the war due to the prolonged impacts on the cost of living.

The latest poll, published by Politico on Friday, showed that more than 60% of respondents believe President Trump has not done enough to protect Americans from the economic impacts of the war.

Fifty-three percent of those surveyed expressed that the cost of living is at the worst level they can remember, while a majority stated that their financial situation has deteriorated since Trump returned to office.

The “Five Eyes” international intelligence alliance has warned that Chinese operatives are actively trying to recruit government and military personnel and compromise their loyalty in an effort to gain a tactical advantage over the US and its allies.

In a rare joint statement, the intelligence agencies of the US, Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, and New Zealand asserted that China is increasingly utilizing professional networking sites and employment platforms, such as LinkedIn and Indeed, to secure access to classified information.

The joint communique noted that the Five Eyes agencies have uncovered multiple cases where individuals handed over sensitive information, subsequently leading to criminal prosecutions.

According to the agencies, Chinese intelligence officers and their accomplices pose as consultants, human resources specialists, or think-tank personnel to post online job advertisements for positions such as foreign policy and defense analysts.

The joint statement declared that the Chinese operatives “ultimately aim to acquire privileged military, political, and economic intelligence that could give China a strategic and tactical advantage over the Five Eyes.”

Western intelligence units have assessed that those targeted include military personnel, among whom are individuals holding top-secret security clearances and others stationed in the Indo-Pacific region.

The targeting efforts by the Chinese state also extend to academics, journalists, and freelance writers, according to the communique.

The Five Eyes agencies have documented a five-stage blueprint used in these recruitment operations, which often involves commissioning reports based on sensitive information related to China, defense, and the Indo-Pacific.

The warning noted that China is prepared to pay between several hundred and several thousand dollars per report.

“Certain types of data could put the lives of frontline military or other personnel at risk, undermine our economic prosperity, and enable interference in our democratic processes,” the statement said, adding that even unclassified information can be valuable to the Chinese state when aggregated with other data already in the possession of its intelligence services.

The bulletin also cautioned that individuals who leak information face criminal prosecution under espionage laws.

The alert follows a previous warning issued last year by the UK’s domestic security service, MI5, which stated that Chinese agents were using LinkedIn to target British lawmakers.

In a statement, UK Security Minister Dan Jarvis said the UK “will continue to tackle hostile activity by a range of states, including China.”

The joint alert also alleged that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been deploying fake remote IT workers to gain access to major corporations.

This North Korean methodology, partially uncovered by Google’s Threat Analysis Group, is driven by a “dual motivation” of fulfilling state objectives and securing personal financial gain, making these actors particularly dangerous, the bulletin noted.

Despite the new warning, Jarvis indicated that the UK would maintain its diplomatic relations with Beijing.

“We are clear that engaging with China is in our national interest, not least because it allows us to directly challenge behaviors we will not tolerate—such as this activity uncovered by MI5 and our partners—while cooperating in areas of clear benefit to the UK,” Jarvis said.

Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.