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Investors see limited gains from Trump-Xi summit as Iran war risks cloud outlook

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The focus on “strategic stability” at the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to ease geopolitical risks between China and the US from the perspective of Chinese markets. But limited progress on trade and the ongoing Iran war are likely to keep investor enthusiasm restrained.

Trump’s first visit to Beijing since 2017 ended on Friday without a major breakthrough on trade or any concrete progress toward ending the US-Israeli war against Iran that has rattled global markets for more than two months.

Although investor expectations for the summit had been limited, markets had hoped the talks could provide a roadmap for resolving the war, which has pushed up energy prices as turbulent negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue.

China’s yuan fell to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly two weeks on Monday as investor focus shifted away from the summit toward a global bond selloff triggered by inflation concerns and fresh signs of tension related to the Iran war.

Chinese equities traded largely flat on Monday after falling more than 1% on Friday, as a risk-off mood dominated global markets.

William Bratton, head of Asia-Pacific cash equity research at BNP Paribas, said the summit was unlikely to deliver tangible gains for equity investors in the short term, but that its longer-term implications for reducing geopolitical risk were positive.

“That should also alter investors’ perception of risk and encourage US capital to reassess the relative attractiveness of Chinese investment opportunities,” Bratton said.

“After all, we have seen US investors gradually adopt a more positive stance toward Chinese equities since the start of the year, and we expect that to continue as US-China bilateral relations stabilize, or perhaps more accurately, become more predictable,” he added.

Monday’s muted market reaction to the summit also followed data showing China’s economic growth lost momentum in April, with industrial output and retail sales coming in significantly below expectations.

Analysts at Capital Economics said the optimistic interpretation was that, although no major breakthrough had been achieved, the summit helped reinforce the trade truce and reduced the risk of renewed escalation in the near term.

“Trump’s invitation for Xi to visit the US in September also increases the likelihood that the two sides will get along over the coming months,” the analysts said in a note.

Investors had hoped the talks might help pave the way for a peace agreement in the Middle East. But markets remain cautious about renewed turbulence after China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, gave no clear indication it would throw its weight behind the conflict.

Analysts said geopolitical differences between the two countries were clearly reflected in the opposing positions taken by Washington and Beijing on the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes.

Trump said Xi agreed that Tehran should reopen the strategic waterway, while Xi made no comment on his discussions with Trump regarding Iran. China’s Foreign Ministry described the conflict as one that “should never have happened and has no justification to continue.”

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said that without clear follow-up action on trade, Taiwan or the Iran conflict, the meeting risked being seen as a “non-event”: positive for sentiment, but insufficient to alter the market backdrop.

“This is where the risk still lies,” Chanana said. “Investors may be underpricing the possibility that the Iran conflict keeps oil prices elevated, inflation expectations sticky and bond yields higher for longer,” she added.

Separately, analysts said Taiwan would remain a key factor in US-China relations after Xi warned Trump that mishandling the island could lead to conflict between the two powers.

Sam Jochim, economist at Swiss private bank EFG International, said it would be significant whether Trump approves a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan.

“Such a move has the potential to destabilize his relationship with Xi,” Jochim said.

Trump also introduced an element of uncertainty on Friday by saying he had not yet decided whether to proceed with a major arms sale to Taiwan.

The trade truce reached after a series of retaliatory escalations between the US and China is expected to expire later this year, and the lack of tariff clarity during the summit weighed on investor sentiment.

Even the agreement highlighted as the most significant tangible outcome of the talks disappointed investors: Boeing shares fell after Trump said on Thursday that China would buy 200 aircraft from the company, a figure far below analyst expectations.

Despite limited progress on trade, Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu described the two-day summit as an exercise in “economic and political risk containment” that delivered short-term stability for both leaders.

“The G2 powers have decided that if they must be rivals through the remainder of 2026, they will at least be predictable, transactional and tightly managed rivals,” Lu said, referring to a term Trump used for the pair in October.

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China’s DeepSeek prepares for 2027 mainland IPO, aims for $71 billion valuation in new funding round

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DeepSeek, the China-based startup developing artificial intelligence models, has begun preparations for an initial public offering (IPO).

According to a Bloomberg report citing sources familiar with the matter, the company plans to file its IPO application either this year or early next year.

The sources noted that the filing timeline will depend on the readiness of the company’s financial reports, with DeepSeek projected to go public on a mainland Chinese stock exchange in 2027.

Prior to the IPO, DeepSeek also aims to conduct a new funding round. In this second investment round, the company reportedly plans to raise at least 10 billion yuan (approximately $1.48 billion), a process expected to push its market valuation to at least 480 billion yuan (approximately $71 billion).

The AI startup, which secured $7.4 billion in its first funding round, saw its market valuation exceed $50 billion, rendering DeepSeek the most valuable artificial intelligence company in China.

The company’s founder, Liang Wenfeng, personally invested $3 billion of his own capital into the DeepSeek project. According to data from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Liang’s stake in the company fell from 90% to 78% following the latest investment round.

Despite this decline, Liang’s personal wealth more than doubled, rising from $16.7 billion to approximately $36 billion.

This surge has positioned Liang as the wealthiest founder of an AI model-developing company in the world.

According to earlier reports by Reuters, the investment round was structured under an unusual partnership model that allows founder Liang Wenfeng to maintain administrative control over the company.

Under this framework, which requires investors to provide funds to a limited liability partnership managed by the company’s general manager rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, backers are not granted voting rights. Furthermore, the provided funds are locked and cannot be withdrawn for a period of five years.

The China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund was the sole institution exempted from these strict rules, investing approximately $150 million directly into DeepSeek.

Based in Hangzhou, China, DeepSeek was founded by Liang Wenfeng in 2023.

The company was structured as a unit within Zhejiang High-Flyer Asset Management, a hedge fund specializing in artificial intelligence that Liang launched alongside two former university classmates.

In early 2025, DeepSeek released a new artificial intelligence model offering performance comparable to US rivals such as OpenAI, but at a significantly lower operating cost.

Following these developments, founder Liang Wenfeng stated that the company will continue to develop open-source artificial intelligence models, emphasizing that their ultimate global objective is to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI).

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Ending Western reliance on China requires $23.6 trillion in investment by 2050, study shows

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Western efforts to reduce reliance on China across strategic supply chains could cost the US, the eurozone, and the UK more than $23 trillion over the next quarter-century, according to a study highlighting the immense economic challenge confronting Western policymakers.

Economic analysis indicates that European and US authorities and corporations will need to invest an additional $23.6 trillion over the next 25 years to successfully end their dependence on China in critical sectors such as manufacturing and technology.

The consultancy EY-Parthenon calculated that rebuilding infrastructure, research, software, manufacturing, and supply chains currently reliant on China will cost the US $13.7 trillion, the eurozone $9.1 trillion, and the UK $800 billion by 2050.

For the US, the required annual capital expenditure from the government and private sector to decouple from China is estimated at $550 billion. This sum is roughly equivalent to the $600 billion major US technology companies are projected to invest in data centers in 2025. For the EU, EY-Parthenon estimated that the necessary spending would require nearly doubling the bloc’s annual budget.

The scale of investment required to substitute Chinese resources and materials, on which advanced economies are currently dependent, underscores the formidable challenge Western governments face as they attempt to curb Beijing’s dominance in strategic supply chains.

“Localizing supply chains without creating unbearable costs for taxpayers and consumers will be one of the most difficult challenges confronting both companies and governments in the coming years,” said Mats Persson, a former UK Prime Minister’s adviser who is now a partner at EY-Parthenon.

EY-Parthenon analysts wrote that an average collective additional investment of $940 billion annually over 25 years was, in theory, “not insurmountable.” However, this expenditure would need to be made on top of existing investments in energy, technology, defense, and infrastructure. Persson noted that initial annual outlays would start lower but would escalate as the transition expanded.

The vulnerability of European and US economies to Chinese leverage was exposed last year when Beijing introduced export controls on critical rare earth metals in response to US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 145% tariff on Chinese imports.

Automotive production lines in both economies ground to a near-standstill before a truce was reached between Beijing and Washington. The disruption accelerated efforts by the US and Europe to de-risk their relations with China, which included an EU plan to stockpile rare earth elements.

According to assessments by the International Energy Agency, China is projected to supply more than 60% of the world’s refined lithium and cobalt—materials vital to the transition to cleaner energy sources—and approximately 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earth elements until 2035.

Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at the investment bank Natixis, said that Beijing’s tight grip on many critical industrial materials meant the West could not decouple from China in the short term, even with massive investment.

“It is not just a question of how much it will cost,” García-Herrero said. “It is also China’s capacity to intervene to block such decoupling, given its current control over supply in everything from rare earth processing to active pharmaceutical ingredients.”

According to the EY-Parthenon analysis, Chinese-made goods generally benefit from a factory-gate price advantage of between 20% and 100% compared to Western competitors. Consequently, reducing dependence on Chinese manufacturing is expected to drive up prices and increase inflation.

The EY-Parthenon report noted that Europe cutting its reliance on China could raise prices in critical sectors by 1% to 2.5%. Citing an analysis by the European Central Bank, the report warned this could cause inflation rates to remain permanently above the 2% targets set by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

According to the report, Western economies seeking a meaningful reduction in China dependence will need to invest heavily in factory and physical infrastructure, as well as workforce training and the automation of production processes.

Given the scale of the challenges, Persson said that “partial decoupling” was a more probable outcome. Under this scenario, companies would need to be selective about where they allocate resources to build resilience against potential bottlenecks controlled by China.

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China and Russia deploy submarines together in “Joint Sea-2026” drills

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The joint deployment and first-ever combined visual capturing of Chinese and Russian submarines during a bilateral military exercise marks a major breakthrough in underwater coordination and signals an unprecedented level of mutual strategic trust between the two powers, according to military analysts.

The maritime phase of the joint naval exercise “Joint Sea-2026,” conducted by China and Russia, concluded on Saturday. According to China Bugle, the official media organ of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) News and Media Center, submarines from both the Chinese and Russian navies were photographed together in the same frame for the first time during the drills.

Speaking to the Global Times, a military affairs expert said the development demonstrates a high level of mutual trust that goes far beyond ordinary bilateral relations.

During the exercises, Chinese and Russian naval units conducted drills covering submarine rescue, strikes on surface targets, air defense, and anti-missile operations. China Bugle reported that both sides deepened mutual trust and further enhanced their joint operational capabilities through highly effective coordination.

The drills employed a flexible planning approach and applied rigorous standards to operational coordination. The joint maneuvers were conducted without predetermined, fixed scenarios; instead, operations were dynamically adapted to real-time battlefield conditions, hydrometeorological factors, and other variable elements.

Participating forces were organized into mixed formations. By utilizing sea, air, and submarine platforms, the two militaries established a multi-domain, integrated combat system.

According to China Bugle, this integrated structure effectively tested both sides’ capabilities in joint reconnaissance and early warning, command coordination, and firepower strikes within complex electromagnetic environments.

During the air defense and anti-missile drills, Chinese and Russian vessels operated in close coordination with a clear division of tasks. Leveraging the distinct strengths of their respective weapon platforms, the forces successfully intercepted incoming targets in the shortest possible time, demonstrating the combined combat capability of the joint Chinese-Russian naval force.

Held regularly since 2012, the “Joint Sea” exercises have become a cornerstone platform for naval cooperation between China and Russia.

According to official statements, both sides deployed elite forces for this iteration of the drills, encompassing surface, underwater, aerial, and support assets. In particular, the participation of submarines and submarine rescue vessels indicates that bilateral naval cooperation continues to expand from surface operations to integrated surface and underwater combat.

Following reports that Chinese and Russian submarines had been captured in the same frame for the first time, Chinese military expert Wang Yunfei told the Global Times on Sunday that the event represents an extraordinary level of mutual trust.

Wang noted that joint submarine operations are exceptionally rare worldwide. By their very nature, submarines operate on the principle of stealth, and their acoustic signatures are guarded by every country as highly classified intelligence.

Pointing out that such vessels are rarely shown in close proximity to one another, Wang said the joint sighting of the two submarines indicates they were operating in close quarters.

Under these conditions, the expert noted, the acoustic signatures of the submarines—including not only their noise levels but also their frequency characteristics—could mutually expose secrets to one another.

Official footage of the exercise revealed that Russia’s improved Kilo-class conventional submarine, the Ufa, participated in the drills, while the Chinese side deployed an improved Type 039B conventional submarine.

According to Wang, when China previously operated Russian-built Kilo-class submarines alongside identical Russian vessels, the implications were different because the acoustic signatures of those platforms were already known to both parties.

However, Wang emphasized that on this occasion, China showcased its domestically developed Type 039B submarine—widely considered state-of-the-art globally—to Russia, reflecting a level of mutual trust that goes beyond standard military exchanges.

Wang also pointed out that the participation of submarines in joint exercises involves communication and data exchange, which serves as another key indicator of high-level mutual trust.

Communication between submarines is highly complex, Wang said, explaining that one method involves raising an antenna above the water’s surface at communication depth. The other method is underwater acoustic communication, where a connection is maintained using specialized equipment—a method that is technically far more challenging.

Regardless of the method used, Wang noted that both sides must share their technical communication characteristics, methods, and tactics with one another.

This level of sharing enables the parties to achieve a high degree of tactical coordination when facing common adversaries, the expert said.

It remains extremely rare for two submarines to participate in joint exercises, share communication data, and coordinate strikes against targets.

Wang said that the ability of China and Russia to achieve this reflects not only the high level of mutual trust between the two sides but also the strong self-confidence of the Chinese military in its own capabilities.

The expert added that this milestone serves as a positive starting point for increasing the depth and intensity of future joint maneuvers.

Following the conclusion of the drills, China Bugle reported that some of the participating forces will conduct joint naval patrols in relevant areas of the Pacific Ocean to continue contributing to regional and international peace and stability.

According to China’s official state news agency, Xinhua, China and Russia launched the “Joint Sea-2026” exercise on July 6 at a military port in Qingdao, located in eastern China’s Shandong province.

A joint command consisting of task forces from both countries’ navies was established to oversee the drills.

Xinhua reported that the exercise would be carried out in three distinct phases: the assembly of forces, port-based planning, and maritime operations.

With the maritime operations phase of the China-Russia “Joint Sea-2026” exercise now concluded, the Chinese Ministry of Defense issued a statement on Sunday.

The ministry stated that both parties will continue to adhere to the principles of openness, transparency, and mutual trust, while further expanding the scope and depth of their joint training.

The ministry added that both nations will make greater contributions to building a maritime community with a shared future and safeguarding global peace and stability.

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