Connect with us

Asia

Investors see limited gains from Trump-Xi summit as Iran war risks cloud outlook

Published

on

The focus on “strategic stability” at the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to ease geopolitical risks between China and the US from the perspective of Chinese markets. But limited progress on trade and the ongoing Iran war are likely to keep investor enthusiasm restrained.

Trump’s first visit to Beijing since 2017 ended on Friday without a major breakthrough on trade or any concrete progress toward ending the US-Israeli war against Iran that has rattled global markets for more than two months.

Although investor expectations for the summit had been limited, markets had hoped the talks could provide a roadmap for resolving the war, which has pushed up energy prices as turbulent negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue.

China’s yuan fell to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly two weeks on Monday as investor focus shifted away from the summit toward a global bond selloff triggered by inflation concerns and fresh signs of tension related to the Iran war.

Chinese equities traded largely flat on Monday after falling more than 1% on Friday, as a risk-off mood dominated global markets.

William Bratton, head of Asia-Pacific cash equity research at BNP Paribas, said the summit was unlikely to deliver tangible gains for equity investors in the short term, but that its longer-term implications for reducing geopolitical risk were positive.

“That should also alter investors’ perception of risk and encourage US capital to reassess the relative attractiveness of Chinese investment opportunities,” Bratton said.

“After all, we have seen US investors gradually adopt a more positive stance toward Chinese equities since the start of the year, and we expect that to continue as US-China bilateral relations stabilize, or perhaps more accurately, become more predictable,” he added.

Monday’s muted market reaction to the summit also followed data showing China’s economic growth lost momentum in April, with industrial output and retail sales coming in significantly below expectations.

Analysts at Capital Economics said the optimistic interpretation was that, although no major breakthrough had been achieved, the summit helped reinforce the trade truce and reduced the risk of renewed escalation in the near term.

“Trump’s invitation for Xi to visit the US in September also increases the likelihood that the two sides will get along over the coming months,” the analysts said in a note.

Investors had hoped the talks might help pave the way for a peace agreement in the Middle East. But markets remain cautious about renewed turbulence after China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, gave no clear indication it would throw its weight behind the conflict.

Analysts said geopolitical differences between the two countries were clearly reflected in the opposing positions taken by Washington and Beijing on the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes.

Trump said Xi agreed that Tehran should reopen the strategic waterway, while Xi made no comment on his discussions with Trump regarding Iran. China’s Foreign Ministry described the conflict as one that “should never have happened and has no justification to continue.”

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said that without clear follow-up action on trade, Taiwan or the Iran conflict, the meeting risked being seen as a “non-event”: positive for sentiment, but insufficient to alter the market backdrop.

“This is where the risk still lies,” Chanana said. “Investors may be underpricing the possibility that the Iran conflict keeps oil prices elevated, inflation expectations sticky and bond yields higher for longer,” she added.

Separately, analysts said Taiwan would remain a key factor in US-China relations after Xi warned Trump that mishandling the island could lead to conflict between the two powers.

Sam Jochim, economist at Swiss private bank EFG International, said it would be significant whether Trump approves a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan.

“Such a move has the potential to destabilize his relationship with Xi,” Jochim said.

Trump also introduced an element of uncertainty on Friday by saying he had not yet decided whether to proceed with a major arms sale to Taiwan.

The trade truce reached after a series of retaliatory escalations between the US and China is expected to expire later this year, and the lack of tariff clarity during the summit weighed on investor sentiment.

Even the agreement highlighted as the most significant tangible outcome of the talks disappointed investors: Boeing shares fell after Trump said on Thursday that China would buy 200 aircraft from the company, a figure far below analyst expectations.

Despite limited progress on trade, Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu described the two-day summit as an exercise in “economic and political risk containment” that delivered short-term stability for both leaders.

“The G2 powers have decided that if they must be rivals through the remainder of 2026, they will at least be predictable, transactional and tightly managed rivals,” Lu said, referring to a term Trump used for the pair in October.

Asia

China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

Published

on

Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

Continue Reading

Asia

SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

Published

on

As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

Continue Reading

Asia

China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

Published

on

Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey