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Recognition diplomacy for TRNC begins with Turkic states

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Having struggled for recognition as an independent state for 39 years, the TRNC (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus) has crossed a significant threshold by becoming an observer member of the OTS (Organization of the Turkic States). “It is of great importance that a strong coalition is formed by intensive cooperation with the Turkic World and that the policy toward the recognition of the TRNC is actively put into practice,” says Prof. Hüseyin Işıksal.

Following the 2017 breakdown of the Crans Montana negotiations, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which has existed as an independent state despite all embargoes for 39 years, has based its policy on sovereign equality and equal international status. The TRNC’s unnamed recognition policy since 2017 was concretized by the address of President Tayyip Erdoğan to the UN Security Council (UN). With the TRNC’s admittance as an observer member of the OTS, a significant milestone was reached in the struggle being carried out in this context. Then, critical steps were taken. Following Gambia Vice President Badara Joof’s visit to the island to meet with TRNC President Ersin Tatar, a joint meeting between the ruling parties of Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and TRNC was held in Cyprus. Even though there is still a long way before Cyprus to go to be recognized as an independent state, patient and determined struggle is not alien to the Turkish Cypriots.

At a press conference on 19 December titled “Three States One Nation”, AK Party Deputy Chairman Numan Kurtulmuş (right), New Azerbaijan Party Deputy Chairman Tahir Budagov (left) and TRNC National Unity Party Secretary General Oğuzhan Hasipoğlu. PHOTO: Ali Ruhluel/AA

‘Doing the same thing and expecting different results is pointless’

International Relations and Diplomacy Special Advisor to the President of the TRNC, and Member of the Negotiation Committee, Prof. Hüseyin Işıksal talks to Harici about the roadmap to be followed by the TRNC in the diplomacy of recognition as well as the role that this new strategy will play in the ongoing conflict over the Eastern Mediterranean.

  • Do the efforts to be recognized as an independent state indicate that a new UN negotiation process based on the “one state” model of Turkiye and the TRNC is off the table? Or will the new recognition initiative be carried out in tandem with the UN negotiation process?

In the presidential candidacy declaration titled “A New Era, A New Vision” in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus elections held in October 2020, Ersin Tatar stated that any viable solution for Cyprus should be predicated on the presence of two sovereign and equal states. He appealed for the Turkish Cypriot people’s support, saying that a solution based on federation was exhausted at the time. By freely voting for Mr. Tatar as President, the Turkish Cypriot people have indicated their support for this vision-based approach.

The facts on the ground in Cyprus demonstrate that the Turkish and Greek people, who share a troubled history with power asymmetry and have different races, languages, religions, cultures, and lifestyles, would not be able to coexist peacefully under a federal solution. This reveals that a federal solution would be short-lived even if this is attempted through the use of a coerced treaty. In the words of Albert Einstein, ‘insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.’ The insistence on a federal solution by the Greek Cypriot side will waste time and perpetuate the status quo, which harms all parties. It is now apparent which model cannot be applied in Cyprus.

In this context, the negotiation committee headed by TRNC President Ersin Tatar, of which I am a part, presented new solution proposals to the United Nations at the 5+UN informal negotiations held in Geneva on 27-29 April 2021. Accordingly, the committee proposed that a fair, realistic, and sustainable agreement honoring the Turkish Cypriot people’s long-devoted struggle for existence and statehood can only be reached by a collaboration of two states with sovereign equity and equal international status. The Turkish Cypriot side has always stated that formal negotiations can only begin on condition that the Turkish Cypriot people’s vested sovereign equity and equal international status have been confirmed. As things stand, compromising our statehood in no way will we confidently continue along this path open to reconciliation and cooperation.

‘No letup in the pace of struggle’

  • The TRNC has taken a significant step forward with its admittance to the OTS as an observer member. How will the following step be carried out? Is there a roadmap for this new recognition diplomacy?

President Tayyip Erdoğan’s historic call at the 77th General Assembly of the United Nations address to all world leaders for the formal recognition of the TRNC is crucial. It marks a new landmark in the history of the Turkish Cypriot people. By making this call, Mr. Erdogan has done more than merely protect the Turkish Cypriots and their legitimate independence; he has also become their voice at the United Nations, where they are not allowed to be represented.

Soon after this call, at the 9th Organization of the Turkic States Leaders’ Summit held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, our state was unanimously admitted as an observer member for the first time under its constitutional name, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. It is a historical step toward international recognition. From this moment forward, we will no longer be subjected to procedures that would keep us in the status of minority.

Compared to many globally recognized states, fulfilling all the conditions of statehood with its full-fledged institutions and organizations, the TRNC is much more socio-economically and politically advanced. The TRNC is slowly yet gradually gaining acceptance from the international community. These days when we celebrate the 39th anniversary of our Republic, we will not rest on our laurels and continue our noble struggle with the tremendous momentum that this positive development encourages. It is of great importance to form a solid cooperation under the leadership of Turkiye with the Turkic world sharing the same values with the TRNC and to vigorously implement the policy for the recognition of the TRNC. The decision of the Organization of Turkic States to admit the TRNC as an observer member will also help to eliminate the unfair imbalance of status in Cyprus and ensure a just reconciliation based on sovereign equality on the island.

‘Geopolitical equation may shift in the Eastern Mediterranean’

  • Is the current polarization in the Eastern Mediterranean to be affected by Turkiye’s “normalization” measures towards Egypt? How do you see the situation developing in that part of the world?

If Turkiye’s “normalization” efforts toward Egypt pan out, we can expect the geopolitical equation in the Eastern Mediterranean to shift dramatically. Recently discovered hydrocarbon reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean have opened up new possibilities for regional collaboration. However, the maximalist demands and ambitions of the Cypriot Greek and Greek sides have had a disastrous economic impact on other coastal European and Mediterranean states. Should the maritime zone issues in the Eastern Mediterranean be settled fairly, the region will face even more significant political challenges. Such a great upheaval will benefit no party.

The main challenge here is that Turkiye, which has the longest coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean and is barely 70 km away from the island of Cyprus, is being attempted to be left out of the political equation in the region. Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration’s (GCA) primary foreign policy move is to immediately appeal to and forge an alliance with a country whenever it has a problem, no matter how negligible, with Turkiye. Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration mainly intend to confine Turkiye to the Gulf of Antalya by reducing Turkiye’s Exclusive Economic Zone by 3.5 times with the so-called Sevilla map they have created. All regional states, particularly Israel and Egypt, will benefit significantly if they sign maritime authorization agreements with Turkiye. I believe that the ‘containment’ strategy of the Greek-Cypriot Greek duo will fail, and the geopolitical equation in the Eastern Mediterranean may entirely change with the new strategic relations Turkiye has established with the regional countries.

Diplomacy

Putin proposes direct talks with Kyiv in Istanbul for May 15  

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Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a late-night statement on May 11, indicated readiness for “direct talks” with Kyiv in Istanbul on Thursday, May 15.

In his nighttime speech summarizing international events for the 80th anniversary of Victory Day, Putin stated that the aim of restarting direct dialogue with Ukraine is to “eliminate the fundamental causes of the conflict” and “establish a long-term, lasting peace.”

Putin said, “We propose to restart direct talks with the Kyiv administration without delay this Thursday, May 15, in Istanbul.”

Moscow had previously stated it could consider a ceasefire agreement under certain conditions, including a complete halt to Western military aid to Ukraine.

Initial Western reactions to Putin’s offer of direct talks have arrived. US President Donald Trump, in a statement on his social media platform Truth Social, welcomed Vladimir Putin’s initiative for direct talks, saying, “This is probably a great day for Russia and Ukraine,” and announced that a “great week” would begin.

French President Emmanuel Macron described Putin’s offer as “a first step, but not enough.” Macron stated he believed Russia was “looking for a way out but still wants to buy time.”

On Saturday, the leaders of France, Britain, Germany, and Poland announced that their ceasefire proposals, effective from Monday, were supported by Trump, whom they had informed by phone the same day.

As a gesture of “solidarity” with Ukraine, the four European leaders threatened to increase sanctions pressure on Russian President Putin if their proposals were rejected. The Kyiv visit by the four leaders was their first joint trip to Ukraine and the first official visit for Friedrich Merz as the new German Chancellor.

Last month, prior to the Victory Day parade in Moscow, Putin had declared a unilateral temporary ceasefire from midnight on May 8 to midnight on May 11.

It was reported that fighting did not stop despite Moscow’s three-day unilateral ceasefire. Kyiv and Moscow exchanged mutual accusations. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, in a statement on the X social media network, described the ceasefire as “absurdity,” asserting that Russia continued its attacks on Ukrainian civilians and its assaults on the front line in Ukraine.

However, Putin, in his nighttime speech, accused Ukraine of escalating attacks against Russia in the days preceding the Victory Day “ceasefire” and of repeatedly violating the three-day ceasefire, including five cross-border attack attempts on the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts. Putin stated that these attacks had “no military significance.”

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End of an era: PKK disbands, ceases armed struggle in Türkiye

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The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), following a congress convened in response to a call by Devlet Bahceli, has announced its dissolution. In the organization’s declaration, which stated, “activities conducted under the name of PKK have been terminated,” criticisms were leveled against the Treaty of Lausanne and the 1924 Constitution, and a call was made for the restructuring of Kurdish-Turkish relations.

The PKK declared at its 12th Congress that it had resolved to dissolve its organizational structure and cease its armed struggle. This decision came after a call from the organization’s founder, Abdullah Ocalan, and is being regarded as the dawn of a new era in Türkiye.

Between May 5-7, 2025, during its 12th Congress held in northern Iraq, the PKK decided to dissolve its organizational structure and terminate its armed struggle. The declaration announcing the congress’s decisions, published by the organization’s news outlet, Firat News Agency, stated: “The 12th PKK Congress, with the practical implementation process to be managed and executed by Leader Apo, has decided to dissolve the organizational structure of the PKK and end the method of armed struggle, thereby terminating activities conducted under the name of PKK.”

Notably, the decision to disband was confined to the Kurdistan Communities Union’s (KCK) Turkish branch, the PKK. The KCK framework includes armed and political extensions such as the PKK in Türkiye, the YPG/YPJ in Syria, KCK-Bakur and HPG in Iraq, and PJAK in Iran.

The process began with Bahceli’s call

The PKK’s dissolution process commenced after Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli’s appeal to Ocalan last October. On October 22, Bahceli urged Ocalan, stating: “Türkiye does not need a new solution process but rather to engage common sense, take honest and sincere steps, and further strengthen a thousand-year brotherhood. Türkiye’s problem is not the Kurds but the separatist terrorist organization. It is imperative to individually resolve the issues of my Kurdish brothers… I also address those who claim nothing will happen unless the terrorist leader is involved. If the terrorist leader’s isolation is lifted, let him come and speak at the DEM Party group meeting in the Turkish Grand National Assembly. Let him proclaim that terrorism has completely ended and the organization has been abolished.”

Responding to Bahceli’s remarks, Ocalan, in a statement from prison on February 27, indicated that the organization should renounce armed struggle and pivot towards democratic politics. The PKK convened its congress and approved the dissolution in response to this call.

Emphasis on Lausanne and the 1924 Constitution

The PKK’s dissolution declaration drew attention for its references to the Treaty of Lausanne and the 1924 Constitution, and its inclusion of the word “genocide.”

The text asserted: “Our party, the PKK, emerged on the historical stage as our people’s freedom movement against the Kurdish denial and annihilation policy originating from the Treaty of Lausanne and the 1924 Constitution.” It further stated, “The PKK was shaped under conditions where strict Kurdish denial, the annihilation policy based on it, and policies of genocide and assimilation were dominant.”

‘Restructuring Kurdish-Turkish relations is inevitable’

The declaration argued that amidst the conditions of a “3rd World War,” a restructuring of Turkish-Kurdish relations is necessary: “Leader Apo adopted the perspective of a Democratic Republic of Türkiye, where the Common Homeland and Kurdish-Turkish peoples are constituent elements, and the Democratic Nation understanding as the framework for resolving the Kurdish issue, referencing the period before the Treaty of Lausanne and the 1924 Constitution when Kurdish-Turkish relations became problematic. Kurdish rebellions throughout the history of the Republic, the 1000-year historical dialectic of Kurdish-Turkish relations, and the 52-year leadership struggle have demonstrated that the Kurdish issue can only be beneficially resolved on the basis of a Common Homeland and Equal Citizenship. Current developments in the Middle East within the scope of the 3rd World War also render the restructuring of Kurdish-Turkish relations inevitable.”

Call to the Turkish Grand National Assembly

The PKK’s declaration emphasized that the organization has fulfilled its historical mission and that the Kurdish issue should be resolved through democratic politics. It stated: “The implementation of these decisions requires Leader Apo to manage and direct the process, the recognition of the right to democratic politics, and a solid, comprehensive legal guarantee. At this stage, it is important for the Turkish Grand National Assembly to play its role with historical responsibility.”

Turkish government: Historic step

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan described the PKK’s decision to disband as “a historic step for regional peace” and affirmed that Türkiye will closely monitor the process. AK Party Spokesperson Omer Celik remarked that the decision was “an important step towards a terror-free Türkiye.”

CHP: Parliament should be involved in the process

Republican People’s Party (CHP) Deputy Group Chairman Ali Mahir Basarir, speaking on a live television broadcast, said: “This country has been combating terrorism for 40 years. The silencing of weapons and the cessation of bloodshed are, of course, significant. However, for the legitimacy of the process, it is essential that Parliament is involved.”

Expressing his unease regarding the lack of transparency in managing the process, Basarir commented: “We should not be learning about this process from Samil Tayyar. It should be conducted transparently with the parties represented in Parliament. No one should be providing us with information from journalists or through back channels. If Parliament is excluded, social consensus cannot be achieved.”

The PKK’s decision to disband positively impacted the Turkish economy. According to Reuters, the BIST 100 index gained over 3%. The Turkish lira also appreciated by 1.3% against the Euro, and an increase was observed in international bonds.

The PKK’s decision to disband is viewed as the beginning of a new era in Türkiye and the region. However, the future trajectory of the process and its ultimate success remain uncertain.

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US and China agree to cut tariffs, signaling trade war ease

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The US and China, in a significant step in the tariff war that threatened to disrupt trade between the world’s two largest economies, have agreed to reduce tariffs for the next 90 days.

Under the agreement reached in Geneva, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce tariffs on goods imported from the US from 125% to 10%. The development was announced on Monday.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that “significant progress” was made during two days of trade talks with Chinese officials in Geneva, signaling that Washington and Beijing could begin to de-escalate tensions.

“We will provide details tomorrow, but I can say that the talks were fruitful,” Bessent told reporters after his meetings with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, which were also attended by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Greer commented, “It is important to understand how quickly we reached an agreement, which perhaps indicates that the differences were not as significant as perceived,” adding that “a lot of groundwork had been done.”

Optimistic statements from the US negotiating team were the first indication that the countries could calm the trade war that had shaken financial markets and caused concerns about global supply chains.

The US applied a 145% tariff on goods from China, and Beijing retaliated with a 125% tariff.

China’s embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment regarding China’s stance on the negotiations. The US and Chinese negotiating teams met at the residence of Switzerland’s UN ambassador in Geneva.

After the first day of negotiations on Saturday, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the US and China had made “great progress.” Trump used the phrase, “a friendly but constructively negotiated full reset.”

According to analysts, the China-US talks held over the weekend are not only economically and politically significant for both sides but also mark the beginning of a long-term process to address tariffs and other trade barriers.

This positive step seen in Geneva, Switzerland, will provide both powers with temporary domestic political relief without appearing weak in the trade war.

Matteo Giovannini, a visiting researcher at the Center for China and Globalization, stated, “The US side is under political pressure to show gains.”

“On the other hand, China views the negotiations not as a singular outcome but as a strategic process to manage bilateral competition, economic resilience, and long-term development goals,” said Giovannini, noting that Beijing’s behavior indicated a game plan based on strategic patience and economic self-preservation.

Speaking to the South China Morning Post, Giovannini added, “By building resilience, China aims to protect its domestic economy from external shocks while selectively engaging in global markets.”

Giovannini, who is also a senior financial manager at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, emphasized that Trump’s characterization of the Geneva talks as an “agreement” could serve many short-term political purposes.

“This signals progress without making concrete commitments and allows the Trump administration to postpone further tariff increases while appearing strong,” he said. He further added, “This strengthens Trump’s image as a dealmaker by turning the trade issue from a stalemate into an evolving success story.”

Giovannini also noted that bringing a positive outlook to the situation could “calm financial markets or increase business support,” stating that this would give Trump “an advantage in domestic politics and at the negotiating table.”

Stephen Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore and a former US trade negotiator specializing in the economic impact of US-China competition, stated that the agreement reached on establishing a consultation mechanism was not a trade deal but an agreement to continue negotiations.

Neither side fully disclosed which topics were discussed, but analysts estimate that negotiators addressed potential reductions in tariffs on goods critically needed by one of the parties.

Olson said, “Given the political capital both sides have spent to initiate negotiations and then characterize the talks very positively, the ground appears set for at least a partial tariff reduction and progress on other issues such as fentanyl in the coming weeks and months.”

Brian Wong, a researcher at the Centre for Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong, said that while the US presented the agreement as a Trumpian success story and “deal,” Beijing’s plan was to focus on strengthening its trade relations with the world.

Rajiv Biswas, CEO of Asia-Pacific Economics, a research firm in Singapore, said that tariff reductions on US exports of oil, gas, and agricultural products to China, along with China’s exports of textiles, apparel, and electrical products to the US, are currently on the table.

Biswas stated that US aircraft manufacturer Boeing could also come up in discussions if both sides discuss whether to restart civil aircraft exports to China.

Biswas, predicting numerous rounds of negotiations stemming from the weekend talks to occur in the coming months, also stated that there would be a long-term “tech war” in the fields of semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and defense technology.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at the French investment bank Natixis, said that Chinese exporters are concerned about being forced to close their businesses because tariffs have virtually halted their trade with the US.

Garcia-Herrero described the weekend dialogue as “like a ceasefire.”

“They cannot keep fighting because they do not have the resources for it,” she said.

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